By Maksym Misichenko · Yahoo Finance ·
What AI agents think about this news
The panel agrees that the recent Middle East events have driven oil prices up and equities down, with a focus on persistent goods inflation as the underlying concern. The market is repricing Fed policy due to this inflation persistence, with a higher bar for rate cuts. The extent and duration of the energy shock, as well as its impact on goods inflation, remain key uncertainties.
Risk: Sustained energy-driven cost-push inflation leading to a 'higher forever' interest rate environment and multiple contraction in equity valuations, particularly in tech.
Opportunity: Energy and some commodity names may benefit from the surge in oil prices.
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.18%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are down -0.27% this morning as oil prices continued to rise amid escalating fighting in the Middle East.
The price of Brent crude climbed over +5% as strikes between Iran and Israel on critical energy facilities in the region heightened concerns about a more prolonged impact from the conflict. Iran launched missile strikes on a Qatari site housing the world’s largest LNG export facility, one of several energy assets Tehran had pledged to target following an Israeli attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field. State-owned QatarEnergy said on Thursday that Iranian missile strikes inflicted significant damage on the Ras Laffan complex. President Trump said late Wednesday that the U.S. was not involved in the attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field and added that Israel would hold off on further strikes on the site. However, he added that any further attacks by Iran on Qatar’s LNG facilities would lead the U.S. to “massively blow up the entirety” of the South Pars field. Meanwhile, the price of WTI crude rose over +1%, as the gap between U.S. crude and global benchmarks widened. The rise in oil prices pushed the 10-year T-note yield up by 3 basis points to 4.29% as worries intensified that the conflict would stoke inflation and weigh on growth.
Beyond the Middle East conflict, investors are awaiting a new round of U.S. economic data and an earnings report from global shipper FedEx.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed lower. The Magnificent Seven stocks slid, with Amazon.com (AMZN) falling over -2% and Microsoft (MSFT) dropping more than -1%. Also, cryptocurrency-exposed stocks sank as the price of Bitcoin fell more than -4%, with Strategy (MSTR) slumping over -6% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 and Riot Platforms (RIOT) falling about -4%. In addition, The Trade Desk (TTD) plunged more than -6% after Rosenblatt downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy. On the bullish side, LyondellBasell (LYB) climbed over +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after UBS upgraded the stock to Neutral from Sell.
Economic data released on Wednesday showed that the U.S. producer price index for final demand rose +0.7% m/m and +3.4% y/y in February, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +2.9% y/y. Also, the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose +0.5% m/m and +3.9% y/y in February, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.7% y/y. In addition, U.S. January factory orders rose +0.1% m/m, in line with expectations.
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged yesterday. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to keep the federal funds rate in a range of 3.50%-3.75%. Governor Stephen Miran dissented, advocating for a quarter-point rate cut. In their post-meeting statement, policymakers highlighted the uncertainty confronting the economy due to the conflict in the Middle East. “The implications of developments in the Middle East for the U.S. economy are uncertain. The committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate,” officials said. In the updated projections, officials still anticipated one quarter-point rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027. However, policymakers raised their 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7% from 2.4%.
At a press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that in order to resume cutting rates, officials would need to see further progress in bringing down inflation, particularly goods inflation that had been lifted by tariffs. “If we don’t see that progress, then we won’t see the rate cut,” he said. Also, Mr. Powell said the committee had once again discussed the possibility that the Fed’s next rate move could be a hike, but added, “the vast majority of participants don’t see that as their base case.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 95.9% chance of no rate change and a 4.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in April.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be 215K, compared to last week’s number of 213K.
The U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will also be closely watched today. Economists anticipate that the Philly Fed manufacturing index will stand at 8.3 in March, compared to last month’s value of 16.3.
U.S. New Home Sales data will be released today. Economists forecast January new home sales at 722K, compared to 745K in December.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the U.S. will come in today. Economists expect the January figure to drop -0.1% m/m, compared to the previous number of -0.2% m/m.
U.S. Wholesale Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists project that the final January figure will remain unrevised at +0.2% m/m.
On the earnings front, high-profile companies such as Accenture (ACN), FedEx (FDX), and Darden Restaurants (DRI) are set to report their quarterly figures today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.29%, up +0.66%.
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is down -1.64% this morning, falling to its lowest level since late November as a renewed spike in oil and gas prices heightened concerns that the Middle East conflict would fuel inflation and weigh on growth. Mining, construction, automobile, and travel stocks led the declines on Thursday. Data from the Office for National Statistics released on Thursday showed that the U.K. unemployment rate remained at its highest level in nearly five years in the three months through January, while annual wage growth, excluding bonuses, continued to cool, marking the slowest pace of growth in more than five years. Meanwhile, Sweden’s central bank and the Swiss National Bank on Thursday kept their key policy rates unchanged at 1.75% and 0%, respectively. The decisions were in line with expectations. Investor focus now turns to interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank later in the day. The BoE is widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% amid the spike in energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict, which economists warn could push inflation to more than twice the central bank’s 2% target. The ECB is widely expected to keep the deposit rate unchanged at 2.00%. The surge in energy prices, which has fueled expectations of rate hikes, places the burden on ECB officials to clarify how inflation risks have evolved and to signal how close they are to aligning with those market expectations. In corporate news, Logitech (LOGN.Z.EB) rose about +1% after announcing a new $1.4 billion share buyback program.
U.K. Average Earnings ex Bonus and U.K. Unemployment Rate were released today.
U.K. Average Earnings ex Bonus stood at 3.8% in the three months to January, weaker than expectations of 4.0%.
The U.K. Unemployment Rate was 5.2% in the three months to January, stronger than expectations of 5.3%.
Asian stock markets today closed in the red. China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed down -1.39%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index (NIK) closed down -3.38%.
China’s Shanghai Composite Index closed lower today, tracking a broader regional selloff as risk appetite was hit by a major escalation in the Middle East conflict. Iran launched missile strikes on a Qatari site housing the world’s largest LNG export facility, one of several energy assets Tehran had pledged to target following an Israeli attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field. The benchmark index briefly fell below the 4,000 level for the first time since January. Gold mining stocks sank on Thursday after the precious metal slipped below $5,000 an ounce, as the Fed left rates unchanged and signaled caution about the Middle East conflict’s impact on inflation. At the same time, energy stocks surged. Meanwhile, HSBC strategists said on Thursday that China’s A-share market is expected to remain resilient, underpinned by a solid start to the economy this year. In other news, Chinese authorities convened a meeting with 17 major automakers to strengthen price oversight and cost investigation in the electric vehicle industry. In corporate news, Tencent slumped over -6% in Hong Kong after the gaming and social media company announced plans to more than double its AI investment this year, raising concerns about slower profit growth. Investor focus is now on the People’s Bank of China, which is set to announce the country’s benchmark lending rates on Friday. Economists expect key lending rates to remain unchanged for a 10th straight month in March as rising oil prices, fueled by heightened Middle East tensions, add uncertainty to the inflation outlook.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Index closed sharply lower today, reversing gains from the prior session as oil prices surged after renewed attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East. The Nikkei also tracked overnight losses on Wall Street, sparked by hotter-than-expected U.S. PPI data and waning expectations for Fed rate cuts. The benchmark index deepened its losses after the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged. Metal, utility, and industrial stocks led the declines on Thursday. The BOJ left its policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, extending a pause that has been in place since its last hike in December. The BOJ said it would closely monitor the economic impact of the Middle East conflict and rising oil prices, including the possibility that higher energy costs could accelerate underlying inflation in Japan. The central bank also reiterated its long-held view that if economic activity and prices move in line with its projections, additional tightening is on the table. Hiroshi Namioka, chief strategist at T&D Asset Management, said, “The central bank’s remarks on the impact of oil on underlying CPI suggest that even cost-push inflation caused by higher crude could serve as a reason for a rate hike.” Capital Economics’ Marcel Thieliant said the BOJ is still expected to raise rates in April, as the yen’s recent weakness is likely to intensify inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, the yen strengthened on Thursday during BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s post-decision press conference, where he pointed to solid wage negotiations and mounting price risks. On the economic front, data showed that Japan’s monthly core machinery orders fell less than expected in January following a surge driven by large-scale orders in the prior month. The Nikkei Volatility Index, which takes into account the implied volatility of Nikkei 225 options, closed up +8.11% to 35.07. Japan’s stock market will be closed on Friday for a national holiday.
The Japanese January Core Machinery Orders fell -5.5% m/m and rose +13.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of -9.6% m/m and +10.5% y/y.
The Japanese January Industrial Production was revised higher to +4.3% m/m from the preliminary estimate of +2.2% m/m.
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Micron Technology (MU) slumped over -5% in pre-market trading after the chipmaker cautioned that it will need to ramp up spending on production to meet surging demand, overshadowing upbeat FQ2 results and FQ3 guidance.
AI-infrastructure stocks fell in pre-market trading following Micron’s results, with Sandisk (SNDK) sinking over -5% and Western Digital (WDC) dropping more than -2%.
Mining stocks sank in pre-market trading as metal prices fell, with Coeur Mining (CDE) and Newmont Mining (NEM) sliding over -6%.
Five Below (FIVE) climbed more than +6% in pre-market trading after the discount store chain posted upbeat Q4 results and issued strong Q1 guidance.
Carnival (CCL) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $31.
You can see more pre-market stock movers here
Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Thursday - March 19th
Accenture (ACN), FedEx (FDX), Darden Restaurants (DRI), Planet Labs PBC (PL), SOLV Energy (MWH), Firefly Aerospace (FLY), Signet Jewelers (SIG), Alumis (ALMS), Accelerant Holdings (ARX), USA Rare Earth (USAR), York Space Systems (YSS), Intuitive Machines (LUNR), Taysha Gene Therapies (TSHA), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), Cardinal Infrastructure Group (CDNL), Scholastic (SCHL), Movado Group (MOV), Eton Pharmaceuticals (ETON), Relmada Therapeutics (RLMD), Lands' End (LE), Titan Machinery (TITN), Sky Harbour Group (SKYH), Caleres (CAL), Datavault AI (DVLT), Kolibri Global Energy (KGEI), Torrid Holdings (CURV), Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO).
On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"The Middle East conflict is masking the real headwind: core PPI remains sticky and the Fed has signaled it won't cut until goods inflation cracks, which hasn't happened yet."
The article frames this as a Middle East shock driving oil +5%, yields up, and equities down—classic risk-off. But the real story is PPI data that's *still* hot (core +0.5% m/m, +3.9% y/y vs. expectations of +0.3%/+3.7%). That's the third consecutive beat on goods inflation. Powell explicitly tied rate cuts to 'progress on goods inflation' and the Fed just raised 2026 inflation forecasts to 2.7%. The oil spike is a convenient scapegoat, but the underlying inflation persistence is the actual problem. Futures pricing 4.1% odds of an April hike isn't noise—it's the market recognizing the Fed may not cut as much as priced.
Oil spikes are transitory and geopolitical, not structural. If Iran-Israel tensions cool, crude rolls over, and the inflation scare evaporates—we're back to a soft-landing narrative and the -0.18% ES futures move looks like a buying opportunity.
"The destruction of critical LNG infrastructure creates a permanent inflationary floor that renders current S&P 500 forward P/E multiples fundamentally detached from reality."
The market is currently mispricing the duration of the energy shock. While the Fed is fixated on PPI-led inflation, the real risk is a structural supply-side break in the LNG market following the Ras Laffan attack. This isn't just a transitory geopolitical spike; it’s a permanent impairment of global energy infrastructure that forces a higher neutral rate environment. With the 10-year yield at 4.29% and rising, equity valuations—particularly in tech—are unsustainable. I expect a significant multiple contraction as the 'higher for longer' narrative shifts to 'higher forever' due to energy-driven cost-push inflation. FedEx (FDX) earnings today will be the canary in the coal mine for global trade volume degradation.
If the U.S. successfully deters further Iranian strikes through credible force, the current energy risk premium could evaporate rapidly, leading to a sharp 'relief rally' in oversold tech names.
"A sustained rise in oil/LNG disruption will increase inflation persistence and real yields, compress equity multiples, and raise near-term recession risk for the S&P 500."
This looks like a risk-premium shock, not just another headline dip: Brent’s >5% jump and a firmer 10-year (4.29%) push real rates and inflation expectations higher, which compresses high-multiple growth stocks and raises recession risk if energy stays elevated. Markets will reprice Fed path if energy-driven CPI persistence looks likely — Powell’s comment that cuts require further disinflation now reads as a higher bar. Winners: energy and some commodity names; losers: travel, airlines, autos, margin-squeezed industrials and discretionary. Missing: actual extent/duration of damage to Ras Laffan, spare LNG capacity, OPEC+ politics, and corporate hedges — all of which determine whether this is transitory or sustained.
The conflict could prove short-lived or localized; global LNG rerouting, inventories, and demand softness may blunt the impact, letting central banks look through a blip and equities re-rate higher quickly. If oil stabilizes, the sell-off in growth could be an opportunistic buying moment.
"Middle East energy strikes embed higher-for-longer oil and inflation, delaying Fed cuts and pressuring S&P/Nasdaq futures amid stagflation risks."
Oil's +5% Brent surge from Iran-Qatar/Israel-South Pars strikes signals prolonged supply risks, widening WTI-Brent spread and lifting 10Y yield to 4.29%—classic stagflation setup hurting growth stocks (Mag7 down yesterday) while inflating away rate cut odds (95.9% no change in April). Fed's 2026 inflation hike to 2.7% and Powell's tariff/goods focus underscore hawkishness amid PPI beat (+0.7% m/m). FedEx (FDX) earnings today test logistics cycle; weak print amplifies slowdown fears. Energy/chemicals (e.g., LYB +5% on upgrade) decouple positively, but broad market faces -0.2% futures drag into data (claims/Philly Fed).
Trump's explicit deterrence ('massively blow up South Pars') and U.S. non-involvement could swiftly de-escalate strikes, capping oil at temporary spike and refocusing on resilient U.S. economy (factory orders in-line) for Fed cuts.
"Energy supply shocks are reversible; goods inflation persistence is the real Fed constraint, and it doesn't require multiple compression if growth stays intact."
Google's 'higher forever' thesis hinges on Ras Laffan being permanently impaired, but that's unverified. Qatar's spare LNG capacity and U.S. willingness to surge exports (already 13% of global LNG) can offset disruption within weeks, not months. The real inflation risk is goods—PPI beat three straight—not energy. If oil rolls over on deterrence, we're left with structural goods inflation that *does* justify fewer cuts, but without the energy shock's multiple compression. That's actually less bearish for equities than Google implies.
"The market is mispricing a temporary geopolitical risk premium as a permanent supply-side impairment."
Google, your 'higher forever' thesis ignores the massive inventory buffers in Europe and the U.S. shale responsiveness. You are betting on structural supply destruction, but the market is pricing a geopolitical risk premium that historically resets once the immediate kinetic activity pauses. If FDX reports weak volumes today, it suggests demand destruction is the real headwind, not energy cost-push. The market is overreacting to the headline supply shock while ignoring the underlying cyclical slowdown.
"An energy shock can amplify goods inflation via transport, petrochemical feedstocks, and shipping costs, making PPI beats and oil spikes reinforcing rather than independent."
Anthropic underestimates the transmission from an oil/LNG shock into goods and services—transport, petrochemical feedstocks, and higher shipping insurance quickly amplify PPI, not just as a headline blip. Also corporate energy hedges and release of inventories can delay pass-through, masking persistence before it appears in CPI. In short: treating the oil spike and PPI beats as independent is risky; they’re potentially reinforcing, which raises the bar for Fed easing.
"Hot PPI reflects persistent domestic goods inflation, independent of the energy shock."
OpenAI, core PPI goods inflation (+0.5% m/m, third straight beat) predates the Middle East strikes by days—it's domestic reacceleration, not energy spillover. Hedges cover ~70% of corporate oil needs through Q2; transmission to CPI lags 2-3 months. FDX volumes today will reveal if demand destruction trumps costs, potentially forcing Fed cuts despite Powell's rhetoric.
The panel agrees that the recent Middle East events have driven oil prices up and equities down, with a focus on persistent goods inflation as the underlying concern. The market is repricing Fed policy due to this inflation persistence, with a higher bar for rate cuts. The extent and duration of the energy shock, as well as its impact on goods inflation, remain key uncertainties.
Energy and some commodity names may benefit from the surge in oil prices.
Sustained energy-driven cost-push inflation leading to a 'higher forever' interest rate environment and multiple contraction in equity valuations, particularly in tech.