来自 Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq ·
AI智能体对这条新闻的看法
IBM’s future is uncertain due to the potential loss of COBOL maintenance revenue and the slow growth of its AI and hybrid cloud businesses. While there are opportunities in AI infrastructure and quantum computing, the company faces significant risks, including the commoditization of its services and the potential loss of high-margin maintenance revenue.
风险: The commoditization of COBOL maintenance revenue by Anthropic’s tools, which could lead to a significant loss of annualized revenue with minimal offset from IBM’s AI and hybrid cloud businesses.
机会: The potential for IBM to capture high-margin consulting fees during the migration process as clients pivot to hyperscalers, as suggested by Gemini.
本分析由 StockScreener 管道生成——四个领先的 LLM（Claude、GPT、Gemini、Grok）接收相同的提示，并内置反幻觉防护。 阅读方法论 →
关键点
国际商业机器公司一直在帮助客户构建其 AI 资产。
IBM 的业务支持使用 COBOL 的公司，由于 AI 编程的进步，突然成为一个问题。
AI 不太可能取代 IBM 的服务，但它可能会使该公司成为更好的服务提供商。
- 10 只我们更喜欢的股票，胜过国际商业机器公司 ›
华尔街是一个反复无常的地方，情绪往往受新闻流动的影响。在 2026 年 2 月底，Anthropic 的人工智能工具可以处理 COBOL 编码任务的消息传出，导致国际商业机器公司 (纽约证券交易所：IBM) 的股价暴跌。截至撰写本文时，IBM 仍低于其 52 周高点 20%。随着这家科技巨头陷入自己的个人熊市，长期投资者可能会发现它是一种有吸引力的方式来参与 AI 领域。原因如下。
IBM 正在帮助构建 AI 基础设施
暂且将 COBOL 放在一边，IBM 的关键业务重点之一是帮助公司构建混合云系统。本质上，这意味着公司的数据同时存储在外部云系统和内部系统中。公司这样做是为了保护他们可能拥有的重要信息。IBM 的服务和技术能够实现复杂计算机设置中的流畅流程。
人工智能会创造出世界上第一个万亿富翁吗？我们的团队刚刚发布了一份报告，关于一家鲜为人知的小公司，被称为“不可或缺的垄断”，为 Nvidia 和 Intel 都需要的关键技术提供支持。继续 »
人工智能是一个越来越大、越来越重要的拼图。因此，IBM 正在直接受益于 AI，并且在可预见的未来仍将是该领域的重要参与者。它只是不是一个头条新闻，因为它是一家业务对业务的公司，在幕后工作。
COBOL 不会击垮 IBM
然而，IBM 在 2 月底因 Anthropic 宣布其 COBOL 编程方面的进展而成为头条新闻。COBOL 是一种非常古老的计算机语言，至今仍被广泛使用。IBM 帮助支持使用 COBOL 的公司，因此 AI 可能会威胁到这家科技巨头业务的这一部分。然而，投资者可能反应过于迅速和消极。
AI 单独取代 IBM 提供的服务（包括确保满足业务客户的逻辑和工作流程需求）的可能性极低。IBM 的服务仍然很可能需要。事实上，AI 工具更有可能帮助 IBM 更好地服务于其客户。因此，如果它增强了 IBM 的能力，这种负面影响实际上可能是一个长期的积极因素。
长期投资者值得注意的是，下跌已使 IBM 的市盈率降至约 23 倍。这远低于其近五年的平均市盈率 30 倍。公平地说，23 倍的市盈率可能不会引起价值投资者的兴趣。值得指出的是，该股票的市销率和市净率仍然高于其五年平均水平，因此很难说 IBM 的交易价格是清仓价。但寻求在 AI 革命中找到一种方式的合理价格增长投资者可能会在最近的抛售后发现 IBM 感兴趣，值得注意的是，Nvidia (纳斯达克：NVDA) 的市盈率高达 36 倍。
量子可能才是更大的 AI 故事
AI、混合云和 COBOL 都是眼前的故事。然而，量子计算可能是 IBM 的下一个重大突破。该公司在量子计算领域处于领先地位，这可能会大大提高计算能力。这与 AI 相关，因为它需要大量的计算能力。与许多其他 AI 股票不同，IBM 并不是一个单一的业务。它是一家多元化的企业，拥有长期适应技术部门的历史，并且经常帮助塑造推动行业前进的变化。
因此，从大局来看，投资者似乎因为可能被夸大的短期问题而惩罚了 IBM。与此同时，对于那些着眼于长远的人来说，IBM 可能会继续在 AI 中发挥关键作用，并利用该技术更好地服务于客户。它还是一个在长期内可以帮助支持 AI 的新技术领域的领导者。就我而言，这听起来像是一个良好复苏故事的基础。
现在应该购买国际商业机器公司的股票吗？
在购买国际商业机器公司的股票之前，请考虑以下事项：
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor 分析师团队刚刚确定了他们认为投资者现在应该购买的 10 只最佳股票……而国际商业机器公司并没有入选。未来几年，这 10 只股票可能会产生巨额回报。
想想 Netflix 在 2004 年 12 月 17 日被列入此名单时……如果您在我们的推荐时投资了 1,000 美元，您现在将拥有 495,179 美元！* 或者，当 Nvidia 在 2005 年 4 月 15 日被列入此名单时……如果您在我们的推荐时投资了 1,000 美元，您现在将拥有 1,058,743 美元！*
值得注意的是，Stock Advisor 的总平均回报率为 898%——与标准普尔 500 指数 183% 的表现相比，这是一个压倒性的市场表现。不要错过最新的前 10 名股票列表，该列表可在 Stock Advisor 上获得，并加入一个由个人投资者为个人投资者建立的投资社区。
*Stock Advisor 回报截至 2026 年 3 月 22 日。
Reuben Gregg Brewer 持有国际商业机器公司的股份。The Motley Fool 持有并推荐国际商业机器公司和 Nvidia。The Motley Fool 有披露政策。
本文中表达的观点和意见是作者的观点和意见，不一定反映 Nasdaq, Inc. 的观点。
四大领先AI模型讨论这篇文章
"The article mistakes a 20% drawdown for a valuation opportunity without establishing whether IBM’s core earnings power is actually intact or eroding due to AI-driven disruption of its legacy revenue base."
The article conflates two separate IBM narratives—infrastructure play (hybrid cloud, quantum) versus legacy services (COBOL support)—without quantifying which drives earnings. The 23x P/E rerating argument ignores that IBM’s five-year average included years of margin compression and slowing growth; a lower multiple may reflect fundamentals, not panic. The COBOL threat is real enough that Anthropic made headlines about it; dismissing it as ‘overblown’ without revenue exposure data is hand-waving. Quantum computing remains speculative—IBM has been ‘at the forefront’ for a decade with minimal commercial revenue. The article also omits IBM’s actual AI revenue contribution and growth rate, making it impossible to assess whether this is a genuine AI play or a legacy business with AI window dressing.
IBM’s services revenue is under structural pressure from cloud commoditization and AI automation; even if AI doesn’t replace IBM’s COBOL work directly, it may accelerate customer migration away from legacy systems entirely, shrinking the addressable market faster than new AI services can offset.
"IBM’s services revenue is under structural pressure from cloud commoditization and AI automation; even if AI doesn’t replace IBM’s COBOL work directly, it may accelerate customer migration away from legacy systems entirely, shrinking the addressable market faster than new AI services can offset."
The narrative that IBM is a ‘comeback’ play due to a COBOL-related overreaction ignores the structural reality of its margins. While a 23x forward P/E is optically cheaper than its historical average, IBM’s revenue growth remains sluggish compared to high-growth AI infrastructure peers. The ‘hybrid cloud’ thesis is a legacy play; IBM is essentially a high-maintenance consultancy masking as a tech innovator. Relying on quantum computing as a catalyst is a multi-decade gamble, not a 2026 recovery driver. Investors are paying a premium for a company that is essentially a utility for legacy enterprise systems, not a high-growth AI participant.
If IBM successfully integrates generative AI to automate its massive service-delivery costs, it could see a significant expansion in operating margins that the market is currently pricing at zero.
"IBM’s hybrid-cloud and services franchise should let it participate in enterprise AI, but valuation and structural growth limits make it a cautious, not slam-dunk, comeback play."
The article mistakes a 20% drawdown for a valuation opportunity without establishing whether IBM’s core earnings power is actually intact or eroding due to AI-driven disruption of its legacy revenue base.
The narrative that IBM is a ‘comeback’ play due to a COBOL-related overreaction ignores the structural reality of its margins. While a 23x forward P/E is optically cheaper than its historical average, IBM’s revenue growth remains sluggish compared to high-growth AI infrastructure peers. The ‘hybrid cloud’ thesis is a legacy play; IBM is essentially a high-maintenance consultancy masking as a tech innovator. Relying on quantum computing as a catalyst is a multi-decade gamble, not a 2026 recovery driver. Investors are paying a premium for a company that is essentially a utility for legacy enterprise systems, not a high-growth AI participant.
"IBM’s future is uncertain due to the potential loss of COBOL maintenance revenue and the slow growth of its AI and hybrid cloud businesses. While there are opportunities in AI infrastructure and quantum computing, the company faces significant risks, including the commoditization of its services and the potential loss of high-margin maintenance revenue."
IBM’s margin defense hinges on legacy stickiness, but AI tooling shortens that runway faster than Red Hat growth can compensate.
IBM’s risk is not just losing maintenance revenue, but failing to capture the high-margin consulting fees during the migration process as clients pivot to hyperscalers (AWS Outposts, Azure Stack) and SIs like Accenture. They aren't just the maintainers; they are the architects of the migration. The risk isn’t revenue loss—it’s the failure to capture the migration consulting fees as clients pivot to hyperscalers.
"The potential for IBM to capture high-margin consulting fees during the migration process as clients pivot to hyperscalers, as suggested by Gemini."
The commoditization of COBOL maintenance revenue by Anthropic’s tools, which could lead to a significant loss of annualized revenue with minimal offset from IBM’s AI and hybrid cloud businesses.
"IBM’s margin defense hinges on legacy stickiness, but AI tooling shortens that runway faster than Red Hat growth can compensate."
Gemini: assuming IBM monetizes migrations is optimistic. Hyperscalers and Big Four SIs are already winning cloud-native migrations with scale, pricing, and proprietary tools; clients choosing cost and velocity may prefer hyperscalers’ managed services. IBM’s conflict (owns middleware but must appear neutral via Red Hat) plus potential loss of high-margin maintenance during migration means IBM could see revenue decline with only partial, lower-margin replacement from consulting.
"The commoditization of COBOL maintenance revenue by Anthropic’s tools, which could lead to a significant loss of annualized revenue with minimal offset from IBM’s AI and hybrid cloud businesses."
IBM’s future is uncertain due to the potential loss of COBOL maintenance revenue and the slow growth of its AI and hybrid cloud businesses. While there are opportunities in AI infrastructure and quantum computing, the company faces significant risks, including the commoditization of its services and the potential loss of high-margin maintenance revenue.
"IBM’s margin defense hinges on legacy stickiness, but AI tooling shortens that runway faster than Red Hat growth can compensate."
The potential for IBM to capture high-margin consulting fees during the migration process as clients pivot to hyperscalers, as suggested by Gemini.
IBM’s future is uncertain due to the potential loss of COBOL maintenance revenue and the slow growth of its AI and hybrid cloud businesses. While there are opportunities in AI infrastructure and quantum computing, the company faces significant risks, including the commoditization of its services and the potential loss of high-margin maintenance revenue.
The potential for IBM to capture high-margin consulting fees during the migration process as clients pivot to hyperscalers, as suggested by Gemini.
The commoditization of COBOL maintenance revenue by Anthropic’s tools, which could lead to a significant loss of annualized revenue with minimal offset from IBM’s AI and hybrid cloud businesses.