ADP Automatic Data Processing, Inc. - Common Stock

NASDAQ · Professional Services · View on SEC EDGAR ↗

$218.14

Price · May 20, 2026

Fundamentals as of Apr 30, 2026

ADP Stock Snapshot Price, market cap, P/E, EPS, ROE, debt/equity, 52-week range

Price

$218.14

Market Cap

$124.99B

P/E (TTM)

30.9

EPS (TTM)

$9.98

Revenue (TTM)

$20.56B

Div Yield

1.9%

ROE

72.4%

Debt/Equity

1.4

52W Range

$188 – $330

ADP Stock Price Chart Daily OHLCV with technical indicators — pan, zoom, and customize your view

10-Year Performance Revenue, net income, margins and EPS trends

Revenue & Net Income $20.56B

2016-06-30 → 2025-06-30

EPS $9.98

2016-06-30 → 2025-06-30

Free Cash Flow —

Margins 19.8%

Valuation P/E, P/S, P/B, EV/EBITDA ratios — is the stock expensive or cheap?

Metric

5Y trend

ADP

Peer Median

P/E (TTM)

30.9

25.1

P/S (TTM)

6.1

0.5

P/B

20.2

1.6

EV / EBITDA

216.2

—

Profitability Gross, operating and net margins; ROE, ROA, ROIC

Metric

5Y trend

ADP

Peer Median

Net Profit Margin

19.8%

-4.2%

ROA

7.6%

-7.1%

ROE

72.4%

-16.2%

Financial Health Debt, liquidity, solvency — balance sheet strength

Metric

5Y trend

ADP

Peer Median

Debt / Equity

1.4

3.2

Current Ratio

1.0

1.1

Quick Ratio

0.3

—

Growth Revenue, EPS and net income growth: YoY, 3Y CAGR, 5Y CAGR

Metric

5Y trend

ADP

Peer Median

Revenue YoY

7.1%

—

Revenue CAGR 3Y

7.6%

—

Revenue CAGR 5Y

7.1%

—

EPS YoY

9.7%

—

Net Income YoY

8.7%

—

Per Share Metrics EPS, book value per share, cash flow per share, dividend per share

Metric

5Y trend

ADP

Peer Median

EPS (Diluted)

$9.98

—

Capital Efficiency Asset turnover, inventory turnover, receivables turnover

Metric

5Y trend

ADP

Peer Median

Payout Ratio

58.8%

—

Dividends Yield, payout ratio, dividend history, 5Y CAGR

Dividend Yield

1.9%

Payout Ratio

58.8%

5Y Div CAGR

—

Ex-date	Amount
March 13, 2026	$1.7000
Dec. 12, 2025	$1.7000
Sept. 12, 2025	$1.5400
June 13, 2025	$1.5400
March 14, 2025	$1.5400
Dec. 13, 2024	$1.5400
Sept. 13, 2024	$1.4000
June 14, 2024	$1.4000
March 7, 2024	$1.4000
Dec. 7, 2023	$1.4000
Sept. 7, 2023	$1.2500
June 8, 2023	$1.2500
March 9, 2023	$1.2500
Dec. 8, 2022	$1.2500
Sept. 8, 2022	$1.0400
June 9, 2022	$1.0400
March 10, 2022	$1.0400
Dec. 9, 2021	$1.0400
Sept. 9, 2021	$0.9300
June 10, 2021	$0.9300

ADP Analyst Consensus Bullish and bearish analyst opinions, 12-month price target, upside

HOLD 23 analysts

Strong Buy 3 13.0%
Buy 5 21.7%
Hold 12 52.2%
Sell 2 8.7%
Strong Sell 1 4.3%

12-Month Price Target

15 analysts · 2026-05-16

Median $240.00

Now $218.14

Low $190.00

High $305.00

Median target $240.00 +10.0%

Mean target $244.47 +12.1%

Earnings History EPS actual vs estimate, surprise %, beat rate, next earnings date

Avg Surprise

0.03%

Period	EPS Actual	EPS Est	Surprise
March 31, 2026	$3.38	$3.33	0.05%
Dec. 31, 2025	$2.62	$2.60	0.02%
Sept. 30, 2025	$2.49	$2.46	0.03%
June 30, 2025	$2.26	$2.25	0.01%
March 31, 2025	$3.06	$3.00	0.06%

Peer Comparison Key metrics vs sector peers

Ticker	Market Cap	P/E	Rev YoY	Net Margin	ROE	Gross Margin
ADP	$124.99B	30.9	7.1%	19.8%	72.4%	—
PAYX	$56.93B	34.5	5.6%	29.7%	40.2%	—
PAYC	$8.73B	19.7	8.9%	22.1%	26.3%	83.2%
PCTY	$10.03B	45.1	13.7%	14.2%	18.9%	68.8%
KFY	$3.17B	13.4	-1.2%	8.9%	13.7%	—
FA	$2.53B	-72.7	83.0%	-2.2%	-2.7%	—
RHI	$2.75B	20.4	-7.2%	2.5%	10.3%	37.2%
TNET	$2.80B	18.5	-0.85%	3.1%	192.6%	—
MAN	—	-102.5	0.58%	-0.07%	-0.64%	16.7%

Full Fundamentals All metrics by year — income statement, balance sheet, cash flow

Income Statement 16

Annual Income Statement data for ADP
Metric	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
Revenue	$20.56B	$19.20B	$18.01B	$16.50B	$15.01B	$14.59B	$14.11B	$13.27B	$12.37B	$11.67B	$10.94B	$10.23B
Cost of Revenue	$11.10B	$10.48B	$9.95B	$9.46B	$8.64B	$8.45B	$8.02B	$7.76B	$7.24B	$6.84B	$6.43B	$6.04B
R&D Expense	$989M	$956M	$845M	$799M	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
SG&A Expense	$4.05B	$3.78B	$3.55B	$3.23B	$3.04B	$3.00B	$3.06B	$2.96B	$2.77B	$2.64B	$2.50B	$2.37B
Operating Expenses	$15.60B	$14.62B	$13.76B	$12.78B	$11.74B	$11.56B	$11.22B	$10.82B	$10.10B	$9.53B	$8.93B	$8.42B
Interest Expense	$456M	$361M	$253M	$82M	$60M	$107M	$130M	$103M	$80M	$56M	$6M	$6M
Interest Income	$320M	$241M	$150M	$41M	$36M	$84M	$98M	$84M	$77M	$62M	$57M	$54M
Other Non-op	$354M	$287M	$184M	$83M	$96M	$148M	$111M	$-172M	$343M	$100M	$63M	$70M
Pretax Income	$5.31B	$4.87B	$4.44B	$3.80B	$3.36B	$3.18B	$3.01B	$2.28B	$2.62B	$2.23B	$2.07B	$1.88B
Income Tax	$1.23B	$1.12B	$1.03B	$855M	$763M	$716M	$713M	$398M	$829M	$741M	$694M	$637M
Net Income	$4.08B	$3.75B	$3.41B	$2.95B	$2.60B	$2.47B	$2.29B	$1.88B	$1.79B	$1.49B	$1.45B	$1.52B
EPS (Basic)	$10.02	$9.14	$8.25	$7.04	$6.10	$5.73	$5.27	$4.28	$3.99	$3.27	$3.07	$3.17
EPS (Diluted)	$9.98	$9.10	$8.21	$7.00	$6.07	$5.70	$5.24	$4.25	$3.97	$3.25	$3.05	$3.14
Shares (Basic)	407,100,000	410,600,000	413,700,000	418,800,000	426,300,000	430,800,000	435,000,000	440,600,000	447,800,000	457,000,000	472,600,000	478,900,000
Shares (Diluted)	408,700,000	412,200,000	415,700,000	421,100,000	428,100,000	432,700,000	437,600,000	443,300,000	450,300,000	459,100,000	475,800,000	483,100,000
EBITDA	$582M	$562M	$549M	$515M	$511M	$480M	$409M	$378M	$316M	$289M	$278M	$336M

Balance Sheet 28

Annual Balance Sheet data for ADP
Metric	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
Cash & Equivalents	$3.35B	$2.91B	$2.08B	$1.44B	$2.58B	$1.91B	$1.95B	$2.17B	$2.78B	$3.19B	$1.64B	$1.98B
Short-term Investments	$4.50B	$384M	$15M	$47M	$10M	$0	$10M	$3M	$3M	$24M	$27M	$2.03B
Receivables	$3.58B	$3.43B	$3.01B	$3.17B	$2.73B	$2.44B	$2.44B	$1.98B	$1.70B	$1.74B	$1.55B	$1.50B
Other Current Assets	$841M	$821M	$744M	$629M	$533M	$506M	$509M	$531M	$883M	$725M	$731M	$690M
Current Assets	$43.25B	$45.54B	$42.17B	$54.80B	$40.74B	$31.56B	$34.34B	$31.82B	$32.66B	$39.50B	$28.81B	$27.49B
PP&E (Net)	$655M	$686M	$681M	$653M	$684M	$704M	$764M	$794M	$780M	$685M	$673M	$667M
PP&E (Gross)	$2.58B	$2.50B	$2.44B	$2.28B	$2.24B	$2.23B	$2.18B	$2.14B	$2.03B	$1.84B	$1.78B	$1.72B
Accum. Depreciation	$1.92B	$1.82B	$1.76B	$1.63B	$1.56B	$1.52B	$1.42B	$1.34B	$1.25B	$1.16B	$1.10B	$1.05B
Goodwill	$3.27B	$2.35B	$2.34B	$2.30B	$2.34B	$2.31B	$2.32B	$2.24B	$1.74B	$1.68B	$1.79B	$1.88B
Intangibles	$1.60B	$1.34B	$1.34B	$1.33B	$1.33B	$1.22B	$1.07B	$886M	$620M	$534M	$503M	$491M
Other Non-current Assets	$1.06B	$1.10B	$1.26B	$937M	$826M	$458M	$934M	$699M	$1.35B	$1.24B	$1.27B	$1.32B
Total Assets	$53.37B	$54.36B	$50.97B	$63.07B	$48.77B	$39.17B	$41.89B	$38.85B	$38.89B	$43.67B	$33.11B	$32.06B
Accounts Payable	$169M	$101M	$97M	$110M	$141M	$102M	$126M	$135M	$150M	$152M	$194M	$152M
Accrued Liabilities	$3.09B	$3.35B	$2.34B	$2.11B	$1.96B	$1.98B	$1.76B	$1.55B	$1.38B	$1.25B	$1.16B	$1.19B
Short-term Debt	$4.77B	$0	$0	$0	$0	$1.00B	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	$2.17B
Current Liabilities	$41.28B	$45.08B	$42.77B	$55.16B	$38.09B	$30.13B	$32.63B	$30.41B	$29.82B	$35.85B	$27.11B	$24.17B
Capital Leases	$321M	$329M	$350M	$371M	$343M	$344M	$0	·	·	·	·	·
Deferred Tax	$164M	$64M	$74M	$67M	$483M	$732M	$660M	$522M	$163M	$251M	$172M	$216M
Other Non-current Liabilities	$1.06B	$991M	$934M	$924M	$834M	$837M	$799M	$728M	$830M	$701M	$644M	$619M
Total Liabilities	$47.18B	$49.82B	$47.46B	$59.84B	$43.10B	$33.41B	$36.49B	$34.11B	$33.20B	$39.19B	$28.30B	$25.39B
Total Debt	$8.74B	$2.99B	$2.99B	$2.99B	$2.98B	$2.00B	$2.00B	$2.00B	$2.00B	$0	$0	$2.17B
Common Stock	$64M	$64M	$64M	$64M	$64M	$64M	$64M	$64M	$64M	$64M	$64M	$64M
Retained Earnings	$25.24B	$23.62B	$22.12B	$20.70B	$19.45B	$18.44B	$17.50B	$16.55B	$14.73B	$14.00B	$13.46B	$13.63B
Treasury Stock	$21.02B	$19.74B	$18.47B	$17.34B	$15.39B	$14.07B	$13.09B	$12.21B	$11.30B	$10.14B	$9.12B	$7.75B
AOCI	$-883M	$-1.81B	$-2.31B	$-1.99B	$11M	$-15M	$-257M	$-680M	$-383M	$-215M	$-261M	$178M
Stockholders' Equity	$6.19B	$4.55B	$3.51B	$3.23B	$5.67B	$5.75B	$5.40B	$4.74B	$3.98B	$4.48B	$4.81B	$6.67B
Liabilities + Equity	$53.37B	$54.36B	$50.97B	$63.07B	$48.77B	$39.17B	$41.89B	$38.85B	$37.18B	$43.67B	$33.11B	$32.06B
Shares Outstanding	405,300,000	408,100,000	412,100,000	416,100,000	423,700,000	429,900,000	434,200,000	438,800,000	445,000,000	455,700,000	466,400,000	480,200,000

Cash Flow 16

Annual Cash Flow data for ADP
Metric	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
D&A	$582M	$562M	$549M	$515M	$511M	$480M	$409M	$378M	$316M	$289M	$278M	$267M
Stock-based Comp	$266M	$244M	$220M	$202M	$175M	$131M	$167M	$175M	$139M	$138M	$143M	$117M
Deferred Tax	$37M	$-37M	$-80M	$37M	$-251M	$26M	$9M	$-152M	$40M	$700.0K	$-15M	$-38M
Amort. of Intangibles	$381M	$372M	$373M	$344M	$327M	$287M	$228M	$204M	$169M	$153M	$151M	$142M
Restructuring	·	·	·	·	·	·	$7M	$44M	$92M	·	·	·
Other Non-cash	$-26M	$-362M	$106M	$-603M	$60M	$-77M	$-190M	$341M	$-71M	$-60M	$47M	$-119M
Operating Cash Flow	$4.94B	$4.16B	$4.21B	$3.10B	$3.09B	$3.03B	$2.69B	$2.52B	$2.13B	$1.90B	$1.97B	$1.82B
Investing Cash Flow	$-3.04B	$-1.39B	$-2.52B	$-7.01B	$-3.52B	$3.16B	$-2.20B	$-2.50B	$-1.11B	$-869M	$-3.76B	$813M
Debt Issued	$1.98B	$0	$0	$0	$1.98B	$0	$0	·	·	·	·	·
Net Debt Issued	$979M	$-900.0K	$-1M	$-900.0K	$980M	$-2M	$-2M	$-7M	$-2M	$-2M	$-2M	$-3M
Stock Repurchased	$1.28B	$1.23B	$1.12B	$1.97B	$1.37B	$1.01B	$938M	$989M	$1.26B	$1.16B	$1.56B	$667M
Net Stock Activity	$-1.28B	$-1.23B	$-1.12B	$-1.97B	$-1.37B	$-1.01B	$-938M	$-989M	$-1.26B	$-1.16B	$-1.56B	$-667M
Dividends Paid	$2.40B	$2.18B	$1.90B	$1.66B	$1.58B	$1.47B	$1.29B	$1.06B	$995M	$944M	$928M	$883M
Financing Cash Flow	$-6.97B	$-1.43B	$-15.68B	$13.65B	$6.44B	$-5.89B	$-208M	$-1.66B	$-8.28B	$8.75B	$1.55B	$-2.36B
Net Change in Cash	$-5.03B	$1.31B	$-14.01B	$9.64B	$6.09B	$257M	$254M	$-1.64B	$-7.28B	$9.77B	$-344M	$284M
Taxes Paid	$1.20B	$1.19B	$1.08B	$857M	$974M	$677M	$634M	$530M	$817M	$652M	$773M	$822M

Profitability 5

Annual Profitability data for ADP
Metric	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
Net Margin	19.8%	19.5%	18.9%	17.9%	17.3%	16.9%	16.2%	12.2%	14.0%	12.8%	13.3%	12.4%
Pretax Margin	25.8%	25.4%	24.6%	23.1%	22.4%	21.8%	21.2%	16.3%	20.4%	19.1%	18.9%	18.6%
EBITDA Margin	2.8%	2.9%	3.0%	3.1%	3.4%	3.3%	2.9%	2.8%	2.5%	2.5%	2.5%	2.8%
ROA	7.6%	7.1%	6.0%	5.3%	5.9%	6.1%	5.7%	4.3%	4.3%	3.9%	4.5%	4.7%
ROE	72.4%	81.8%	94.7%	79.5%	45.8%	43.9%	45.2%	43.6%	41.0%	32.1%	25.3%	23.6%

Liquidity & Solvency 4

Annual Liquidity & Solvency data for ADP
Metric	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
Current Ratio	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.1	1.0	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.1	1.1
Quick Ratio	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.2
Debt / Equity	1.4	0.7	0.9	0.9	0.5	0.3	0.4	0.6	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.3
LT Debt / Equity	0.6	0.7	0.9	0.9	0.5	0.2	0.4	0.6	0.5	·	·	·

Efficiency 2

Annual Efficiency data for ADP
Metric	Trend	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
Asset Turnover		0.4	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.4
Receivables Turnover		5.9	6.0	5.8	5.6	5.8	6.0	6.4	7.2	7.2	7.1	7.2	7.2

Per Share 6

Annual Per Share data for ADP
Metric	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
Book Value / Share	$15.27	$11.14	$8.52	$7.75	$13.38	$13.38	$12.44	$7.88	$8.94	$9.83	$10.31	$13.89
Revenue / Share	$50.31	$46.59	$43.33	$39.18	$35.05	$33.72	$32.39	$30.06	$27.49	$25.41	$22.99	$25.27
Cash Flow / Share	$12.09	$10.09	$10.12	$7.36	$7.23	$6.99	$6.14	$5.67	$4.72	$4.05	$4.00	$3.77
Cash / Share	$8.26	$7.14	$5.06	$3.45	$6.08	$4.44	$4.49	$4.95	$6.25	$7.00	$3.51	$4.13
Dividend / Share	$6	$5	$5	$4	$4	$4	$3	$3	$2	$2	$2	$2
EPS (TTM)	$9.98	$9.10	$8.21	$7.00	$6.07	$5.70	$5.24	$4.25	$3.97	$3.25	$3.05	$3.14

Growth Rates 10

Annual Growth Rates data for ADP
Metric	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
Revenue YoY	7.1%	6.6%	9.2%	10.0%	2.9%	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
Revenue CAGR 3Y	7.6%	8.6%	7.3%	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
Revenue CAGR 5Y	7.1%	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
EPS YoY	9.7%	10.8%	17.3%	15.3%	6.5%	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
EPS CAGR 3Y	12.6%	14.4%	12.9%	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
EPS CAGR 5Y	11.8%	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
Net Income YoY	8.7%	10.0%	15.7%	13.5%	5.3%	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
Net Income CAGR 3Y	11.4%	13.0%	11.4%	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
Net Income CAGR 5Y	10.6%	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
Dividend CAGR 5Y	10.3%	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·

Valuation (TTM) 15

Annual Valuation (TTM) data for ADP
Metric	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
Revenue TTM	$20.56B	$19.20B	$18.01B	$16.50B	$15.01B	$14.59B	$14.11B	$13.27B	$12.37B	$11.67B	$10.94B	$10.23B
Net Income TTM	$4.08B	$3.75B	$3.41B	$2.95B	$2.60B	$2.47B	$2.29B	$1.88B	$1.79B	$1.49B	$1.45B	$1.52B
Market Cap	$124.99B	$97.41B	$90.58B	$87.40B	$84.16B	$64.01B	$71.79B	$58.86B	$45.59B	$41.87B	$37.42B	$33.42B
Enterprise Value	$125.89B	$97.10B	$91.47B	$88.90B	$84.55B	$64.10B	$71.83B	$58.69B	$44.81B	$38.65B	$35.75B	$31.58B
P/E	30.9	26.2	26.8	30.0	32.7	26.1	31.6	31.6	25.8	28.3	26.3	22.2
P/S	6.1	5.1	5.0	5.3	5.6	4.4	5.1	4.4	3.7	3.6	3.4	3.3
P/B	20.2	21.4	25.8	27.1	14.8	11.1	13.3	17.0	11.5	9.3	7.8	5.0
P / Tangible Book	95.3	113.5	·	·	42.1	28.7	·	·	·	·	·	·
P / Cash Flow	25.3	23.4	21.5	28.2	27.2	21.2	26.7	23.4	21.4	22.5	19.6	18.4
EV / EBITDA	216.2	172.8	166.5	172.6	165.6	133.5	175.6	155.4	141.8	133.9	128.7	93.9
EV / Revenue	6.1	5.1	5.1	5.4	5.6	4.4	5.1	4.4	3.6	3.3	3.3	3.1
Dividend Yield	1.9%	2.2%	2.1%	1.9%	1.9%	2.3%	1.8%	1.8%	2.2%	2.2%	2.5%	2.6%
Earnings Yield	3.2%	3.8%	3.7%	3.3%	3.1%	3.8%	3.2%	3.2%	3.9%	3.5%	3.8%	4.5%
Payout Ratio	58.8%	58.2%	55.8%	56.3%	60.6%	59.6%	56.4%	65.6%	57.4%	63.2%	63.9%	58.3%
Annual Payout	$2.40B	$2.18B	$1.90B	$1.66B	$1.58B	$1.47B	$1.29B	$1.06B	$995M	$944M	$928M	$883M

Income Statement 16

Quarterly Income Statement data for ADP
Metric	Q3 2026	Q2 2025	Q1 2025	Q4 2025	Q3 2025	Q2 2024	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q3 2024	Q2 2023	Q1 2023	Q4 2023	Q3 2023	Q2 2022	Q1 2022	Q4 2022
Revenue	$5.94B	$5.36B	$5.18B	$5.13B	$5.55B	$5.05B	$4.83B	$4.77B	$5.25B	$4.67B	$4.51B	$4.48B	$4.93B	$4.39B	$4.22B	$4.13B
Cost of Revenue	$3.07B	$2.89B	$2.84B	$2.82B	$2.90B	$2.74B	$2.63B	$2.63B	$2.77B	$2.56B	$2.52B	$2.49B	$2.62B	$2.45B	$2.39B	$2.39B
R&D Expense	$254M	$258M	$251M	$269M	$247M	$240M	$233M	$248M	$243M	$229M	$236M	$222M	$209M	$204M	$210M	·
SG&A Expense	$1.08B	$1.07B	$1.01B	$1.10B	$1.02B	$1.01B	$927M	$1.04B	$941M	$922M	$880M	$957M	$938M	$856M	$800M	$914M
Operating Expenses	$4.23B	$4.08B	$3.98B	$4.03B	$3.99B	$3.88B	$3.70B	$3.77B	$3.77B	$3.59B	$3.49B	$3.55B	$3.60B	$3.36B	$3.25B	$3.33B
Interest Expense	$79M	$124M	$135M	$114M	$75M	$130M	$138M	$102M	$63M	$105M	$92M	$107M	$38M	$57M	$51M	·
Interest Income	$64M	$97M	$102M	$88M	$56M	$84M	$92M	$82M	$56M	$57M	$46M	$67M	$24M	$29M	$30M	$17M
Other Non-op	$75M	$106M	$110M	$98M	$64M	$91M	$102M	$90M	$64M	$65M	$68M	$77M	$36M	$30M	$40M	$2M
Pretax Income	$1.78B	$1.38B	$1.31B	$1.19B	$1.62B	$1.26B	$1.24B	$1.09B	$1.55B	$1.14B	$1.09B	$1.01B	$1.36B	$1.06B	$1.01B	$803M
Income Tax	$422M	$321M	$294M	$280M	$372M	$298M	$280M	$260M	$361M	$265M	$233M	$229M	$321M	$245M	$231M	$178M
Net Income	$1.36B	$1.06B	$1.01B	$911M	$1.25B	$963M	$956M	$829M	$1.18B	$878M	$859M	$777M	$1.04B	$813M	$779M	$626M
EPS (Basic)	$3.39	$2.63	$2.50	$2.25	$3.07	$2.36	$2.34	$2.02	$2.89	$2.14	$2.09	$1.89	$2.52	$1.96	$1.88	$1.51
EPS (Diluted)	$3.38	$2.62	$2.49	$2.23	$3.06	$2.35	$2.34	$2.01	$2.88	$2.13	$2.08	$1.88	$2.51	$1.95	$1.87	$1.49
Shares (Basic)	401,700,000	403,800,000	405,100,000	-815,300,000	406,900,000	407,600,000	407,900,000	-822,700,000	410,500,000	411,100,000	411,700,000	-828,900,000	413,700,000	414,300,000	414,600,000	-840,500,000
Shares (Diluted)	402,500,000	404,700,000	406,500,000	-818,300,000	408,500,000	409,000,000	409,500,000	-826,000,000	412,100,000	412,500,000	413,600,000	-832,900,000	415,500,000	416,200,000	416,900,000	-844,900,000
EBITDA	$146M	$146M	$147M	·	·	·	$139M	·	·	·	$142M	·	·	·	$135M	·

Balance Sheet 28

Quarterly Balance Sheet data for ADP
Metric	Q3 2026	Q2 2025	Q1 2025	Q4 2025	Q3 2025	Q2 2024	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q3 2024	Q2 2023	Q1 2023	Q4 2023	Q3 2023	Q2 2022	Q1 2022	Q4 2022
Cash & Equivalents	$3.23B	$2.42B	$2.48B	$3.35B	$2.68B	$2.22B	$2.10B	$2.91B	$3.29B	$1.64B	$1.44B	$2.08B	$1.83B	$1.34B	$1.21B	$1.44B
Short-term Investments	$0	$46M	$5.47B	$4.50B	$0	$0	$5.24B	$384M	$0	$24M	$147M	·	$26M	$16M	$24M	·
Receivables	$3.57B	$3.41B	$3.46B	$3.58B	$3.55B	$3.50B	$3.32B	$3.43B	$3.46B	$3.37B	$3.10B	·	$3.07B	$3.16B	$2.94B	·
Other Current Assets	$1.02B	$1.08B	$1.09B	$841M	$933M	$1.13B	$1.07B	$821M	$958M	$1.02B	$1.18B	·	$769M	$876M	$884M	·
Current Assets	$54.23B	$74.47B	$44.20B	$43.25B	$46.54B	$54.25B	$39.91B	$45.54B	$55.64B	$48.54B	$40.48B	·	$51.52B	$46.14B	$37.97B	·
PP&E (Net)	$623M	$623M	$647M	$655M	$670M	$682M	$692M	$686M	$676M	$671M	$660M	·	$664M	$655M	$645M	·
PP&E (Gross)	·	·	·	$2.58B	·	·	·	$2.50B	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
Accum. Depreciation	·	·	·	$1.92B	·	·	·	$1.82B	·	·	·	·	·	·	·	·
Goodwill	$3.29B	$3.29B	$3.28B	$3.27B	$3.30B	$3.18B	$2.37B	$2.35B	$2.36B	$2.37B	$2.35B	$2.34B	$2.34B	$2.31B	$2.27B	$2.30B
Intangibles	$1.64B	$1.62B	$1.60B	$1.60B	$1.60B	$1.74B	$1.33B	$1.34B	$1.30B	$1.32B	$1.33B	·	$1.36B	$1.37B	$1.37B	·
Other Non-current Assets	$1.16B	$1.11B	$1.08B	$1.05B	$1000M	$952M	$923M	$1.10B	$1.01B	$996M	$1.35B	·	$960M	$991M	$1.14B	·
Total Assets	$64.48B	$84.64B	$54.32B	$53.37B	$56.45B	$64.10B	$49.51B	$54.36B	$64.18B	$57.07B	$49.32B	$50.97B	$59.88B	$54.45B	$46.36B	$63.07B
Accounts Payable	$136M	$143M	$129M	$169M	$146M	$186M	$145M	$101M	$85M	$77M	$67M	·	$75M	$85M	$83M	·
Accrued Liabilities	$3.01B	$2.48B	$2.91B	$3.09B	$2.98B	$3.09B	$2.97B	$3.35B	$3.71B	$2.63B	$2.29B	·	$2.19B	$2.37B	$2.17B	·
Short-term Debt	$0	$0	$5.21B	$4.77B	$0	$0	$4.38B	$0	$0	$0	$0	·	$0	$0	$0	·
Current Liabilities	$52.02B	$72.14B	$41.93B	$41.28B	$45.85B	$54.30B	$39.37B	$45.08B	$54.90B	$48.10B	$41.23B	·	$51.54B	$46.81B	$39.17B	·
Capital Leases	$318M	$348M	$342M	$321M	$283M	$300M	$316M	$329M	$309M	$327M	$334M	·	$332M	$334M	$348M	·
Deferred Tax	$345M	$350M	$272M	$164M	$129M	$91M	$154M	$64M	$64M	$68M	$68M	·	$68M	$67M	$66M	·
Other Non-current Liabilities	$1.09B	$1.05B	$1.04B	$1.06B	$991M	$999M	$977M	$991M	$936M	$919M	$893M	·	$919M	$932M	$902M	·
Total Liabilities	$58.13B	$78.25B	$47.95B	$47.18B	$50.59B	$59.02B	$44.16B	$49.82B	$59.55B	$52.75B	$45.85B	·	$56.19B	$51.47B	$43.79B	·
Total Debt	$3.98B	$3.98B	$9.18B	·	$2.98B	$2.98B	$7.36B	·	$2.99B	$2.99B	$2.99B	·	$2.99B	$2.99B	$2.99B	·
Common Stock	$64M	$64M	$64M	$64M	$64M	$64M	$64M	$64M	$64M	$64M	$64M	·	$64M	$64M	$64M	·
Retained Earnings	$26.67B	$25.99B	$25.62B	$25.24B	$24.96B	$24.34B	$24.00B	$23.62B	$23.37B	$22.76B	$22.46B	·	$21.86B	$21.33B	$21.04B	·
Treasury Stock	$22.54B	$21.96B	$21.45B	$21.02B	$20.70B	$20.41B	$20.14B	$19.74B	$19.31B	$19.02B	$18.77B	·	$18.16B	$17.91B	$17.70B	·
AOCI	$-853M	$-640M	$-731M	$-883M	$-1.19B	$-1.53B	$-1.10B	$-1.81B	$-1.85B	$-1.75B	$-2.47B	·	$-2.13B	$-2.45B	$-2.72B	·
Stockholders' Equity	$6.35B	$6.39B	$6.37B	$6.19B	$5.86B	$5.08B	$5.35B	$4.55B	$4.63B	$4.32B	$3.47B	·	$3.69B	$2.99B	$2.58B	·
Liabilities + Equity	$64.48B	$84.64B	$54.32B	$53.37B	$56.45B	$64.10B	$49.51B	$54.36B	$64.18B	$57.07B	$49.32B	·	$59.88B	$54.45B	$46.36B	·
Shares Outstanding	400,600,000	403,000,000	404,900,000	405,300,000	406,300,000	406,900,000	407,700,000	408,100,000	409,800,000	410,700,000	411,700,000	·	413,500,000	414,400,000	415,200,000	·

Cash Flow 14

Quarterly Cash Flow data for ADP
Metric	Q3 2026	Q2 2025	Q1 2025	Q4 2025	Q3 2025	Q2 2024	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q3 2024	Q2 2023	Q1 2023	Q4 2023	Q3 2023	Q2 2022	Q1 2022	Q4 2022
D&A	$146M	$146M	$147M	$146M	$147M	$151M	$139M	$136M	$145M	$140M	$142M	$140M	$137M	$137M	$135M	$130M
Stock-based Comp	$51M	$73M	$59M	$64M	$63M	$79M	$61M	$55M	$56M	$74M	$59M	$44M	$68M	$58M	$51M	$56M
Amort. of Intangibles	$97M	$96M	$95M	$95M	$96M	$101M	$89M	$86M	$95M	$94M	$96M	$94M	$92M	$94M	$92M	$88M
Other Non-cash	·	·	$-576M	·	·	·	$-331M	·	·	·	$-733M	·	·	·	$-247M	·
Operating Cash Flow	$2.24B	$1.13B	$642M	$1.44B	$1.53B	$1.15B	$824M	$1.30B	$1.50B	$1.03B	$326M	$1.19B	$1.40B	$900M	$718M	$913M
Investing Cash Flow	$-1.22B	$-677M	$-1.86B	$423M	$-556M	$-1.26B	$-1.64B	$-217M	$-1.09B	$138M	$-216M	$-464M	$-583M	$108M	$-1.58B	$-1.05B
Debt Issued	$0	$0	$0	$991M	$0	$0	$989M	$0	$0	$0	$0	$0	·	·	·	·
Net Debt Issued	·	·	$-300.0K	·	·	·	$989M	·	·	·	$-200.0K	·	·	·	$-200.0K	·
Stock Repurchased	$581M	$516M	$366M	$324M	$312M	$272M	$373M	$436M	$292M	$255M	$250M	$304M	$264M	$220M	$333M	$488M
Net Stock Activity	·	·	$-366M	·	·	·	$-373M	·	·	·	$-250M	·	·	·	$-333M	·
Dividends Paid	$687M	$629M	$627M	$626M	$628M	$572M	$573M	$575M	$576M	$516M	$516M	$518M	$521M	$433M	$433M	$434M
Financing Cash Flow	$-22.04B	$29.18B	$164M	$-5.06B	$-9.40B	$13.97B	$-6.49B	$-11.12B	$5.87B	$5.72B	$-1.90B	$-9.99B	$3.94B	$6.68B	$-16.30B	$-8.73B
Net Change in Cash	$-21.06B	$29.67B	$-1.06B	$-3.14B	$-8.40B	$13.81B	$-7.29B	$-10.04B	$6.25B	$6.92B	$-1.81B	$-9.27B	$4.76B	$7.71B	$-17.21B	$-8.95B
Taxes Paid	$158M	$230M	$74M	$361M	$253M	$519M	$65M	$379M	$216M	$502M	$88M	$302M	$242M	$480M	$58M	$269M

Profitability 5

Quarterly Profitability data for ADP
Metric	Q3 2026	Q2 2025	Q1 2025	Q4 2025	Q3 2025	Q2 2024	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q3 2024	Q2 2023	Q1 2023	Q4 2023	Q3 2023	Q2 2022	Q1 2022	Q4 2022
Net Margin	22.9%	19.8%	19.6%	·	22.5%	19.1%	19.8%	·	22.6%	18.8%	19.1%	·	21.2%	18.5%	18.5%	·
Pretax Margin	30.0%	25.8%	25.3%	·	29.2%	25.0%	25.6%	·	29.4%	24.5%	24.2%	·	27.7%	24.1%	24.0%	·
EBITDA Margin	2.5%	2.7%	2.8%	·	·	·	2.9%	·	·	·	3.1%	·	·	·	3.2%	·
ROA	2.2%	1.4%	1.9%	·	2.1%	1.6%	1.9%	·	1.9%	1.6%	1.8%	·	1.6%	1.4%	1.5%	·
ROE	22.3%	18.5%	17.3%	·	23.8%	20.5%	21.7%	·	28.5%	24.1%	28.4%	·	26.5%	20.2%	19.7%	·

Liquidity & Solvency 4

Quarterly Liquidity & Solvency data for ADP
Metric	Q3 2026	Q2 2025	Q1 2025	Q4 2025	Q3 2025	Q2 2024	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q3 2024	Q2 2023	Q1 2023	Q4 2023	Q3 2023	Q2 2022	Q1 2022	Q4 2022
Current Ratio	1.0	1.0	1.1	·	1.0	1.0	1.0	·	1.0	1.0	1.0	·	1.0	1.0	1.0	·
Quick Ratio	0.1	0.1	0.3	·	0.1	0.1	0.3	·	0.1	0.1	0.1	·	0.1	0.1	0.1	·
Debt / Equity	0.6	0.6	1.4	·	0.5	0.6	1.4	·	0.6	0.7	0.9	·	0.8	1.0	1.2	·
LT Debt / Equity	0.6	0.6	0.6	·	0.5	0.6	0.6	·	0.6	0.7	0.9	·	0.8	1.0	1.2	·

Efficiency 2

Quarterly Efficiency data for ADP
Metric	Trend	Q3 2026	Q2 2025	Q1 2025	Q4 2025	Q3 2025	Q2 2024	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q3 2024	Q2 2023	Q1 2023	Q4 2023	Q3 2023	Q2 2022	Q1 2022	Q4 2022
Asset Turnover		0.1	0.1	0.1	·	0.1	0.1	0.1	·	0.1	0.1	0.1	·	0.1	0.1	0.1	·
Receivables Turnover		1.7	1.6	1.5	·	1.6	1.5	1.5	·	1.6	1.4	1.5	·	1.6	1.5	1.5	·

Per Share 6

Quarterly Per Share data for ADP
Metric	Q3 2026	Q2 2025	Q1 2025	Q4 2025	Q3 2025	Q2 2024	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q3 2024	Q2 2023	Q1 2023	Q4 2023	Q3 2023	Q2 2022	Q1 2022	Q4 2022
Book Value / Share	$15.85	$15.86	$15.74	·	$14.41	$12.48	$13.12	·	$11.29	$10.52	$8.44	·	$8.93	$7.21	$6.21	·
Revenue / Share	$14.76	$13.24	$12.73	·	$13.59	$12.34	$11.80	·	$12.75	$11.32	$10.91	·	$11.86	$10.55	$10.11	·
Cash Flow / Share	·	·	$1.58	·	·	·	$2.01	·	·	·	$0.79	·	·	·	$1.72	·
Cash / Share	$8.06	$6.02	$6.12	·	$6.60	$5.45	$5.16	·	$8.03	$4.00	$3.50	·	$4.42	$3.25	$2.91	·
Dividend / Share	$2	$2	$2	$2	$2	$2	$1	$1	$1	$1	$1	$1	$1	$1	$1	$1
EPS (TTM)	$11.55	$10.52	$10.24	·	$10.63	$9.70	$9.43	·	$9.60	$8.67	$8.41	·	$8.54	$7.68	$7.38	·

Valuation (TTM) 13

Quarterly Valuation (TTM) data for ADP
Metric	Q3 2026	Q2 2025	Q1 2025	Q4 2025	Q3 2025	Q2 2024	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q3 2024	Q2 2023	Q1 2023	Q4 2023	Q3 2023	Q2 2022	Q1 2022	Q4 2022
Revenue TTM	$22.03B	$21.14B	$20.61B	·	$20.69B	$19.80B	$19.27B	·	$19.36B	$18.50B	$18.05B	·	$18.05B	$17.14B	$16.59B	·
Net Income TTM	$4.68B	$4.29B	$4.18B	·	$4.35B	$3.98B	$3.88B	·	$3.97B	$3.59B	$3.49B	·	$3.56B	$3.21B	$3.10B	·
Market Cap	$81.39B	$103.66B	$118.84B	·	$124.14B	$119.11B	$112.82B	·	$102.34B	$95.68B	$99.05B	·	$92.06B	$98.98B	$93.91B	·
Enterprise Value	$82.14B	$105.17B	$120.08B	·	$124.44B	$119.88B	$112.83B	·	$102.04B	$97.01B	$100.45B	·	$93.19B	$100.61B	$95.67B	·
P/E	17.6	24.5	28.7	·	28.7	30.2	29.3	·	26.0	26.9	28.6	·	26.1	31.1	30.6	·
P/S	3.7	4.9	5.8	·	6.0	6.0	5.9	·	5.3	5.2	5.5	·	5.1	5.8	5.7	·
P/B	12.8	16.2	18.6	·	21.2	23.5	21.1	·	22.1	22.2	28.5	·	24.9	33.1	36.5	·
P / Tangible Book	57.3	70.2	79.2	·	130.6	768.0	68.4	·	104.9	150.7	·	·	·	·	·	·
P / Cash Flow	·	·	185.0	·	·	·	136.9	·	·	·	303.4	·	·	·	130.8	·
EV / EBITDA	561.1	722.3	818.5	·	·	·	814.1	·	·	·	709.9	·	·	·	708.1	·
EV / Revenue	3.7	5.0	5.8	·	6.0	6.1	5.9	·	5.3	5.2	5.6	·	5.2	5.9	5.8	·
Earnings Yield	5.7%	4.1%	3.5%	·	3.5%	3.3%	3.4%	·	3.8%	3.7%	3.5%	·	3.8%	3.2%	3.3%	·
Payout Ratio	·	·	61.9%	·	·	·	59.9%	·	·	·	60.0%	·	·	·	55.6%	·

Financial Statements Income statement, balance sheet, cash flow — annual, last 5 years

Income Statement

	2025-06-30	2024-06-30	2023-06-30	2022-06-30	2021-06-30
Revenue	$20.56B	$19.20B	$18.01B	$16.50B	$15.01B
Net Income	$4.08B	$3.75B	$3.41B	$2.95B	$2.60B
Diluted EPS	$9.98	$9.10	$8.21	$7.00	$6.07

Balance Sheet

	2025-06-30	2024-06-30	2023-06-30	2022-06-30	2021-06-30
Debt / Equity	1.4	0.7	0.9	0.9	0.5
Current Ratio	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.1
Quick Ratio	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1

ADP AI Analyst Panel — Bullish and Bearish Views 2026Q2 debate: Claude, Grok, Gemini, ChatGPT on the stock's prospects

Round 1 — Opening Takes

Grok NEUTRAL 0.75

↑ Bullish

I see ADP's payroll dominance delivering sticky, recession-resistant revenue that justifies premium profitability. The 70% ROE shows it's converting equity into profits far beyond peers like PAYX at 40%, thanks to a moat from network effects and low client churn. Net margin holds steady at 19.8%, proving cost control in a high-margin services model. Even after a dip from $326 to $302, flat EPS at $10.14 signals underlying stability for 2026.

↓ Bearish

My read is that cyclical hiring slowdowns expose ADP's vulnerability, pressuring its stretched valuation. P/E at 25x exceeds peers like PAYC's 15x, implying the market sees fading growth justification. Debt/equity at 144% heightens risks if job security fears from ADP's own March 25 survey worsen. BMO's April 11 target slash to $234 underscores structural pressures amid the 16% market cap drop since Q3.

Claude NEUTRAL 0.62

↑ Bullish

ADP is a cash-generative payroll monopoly trading at a modest premium to peers despite structurally superior returns. The 70% ROE tells you ADP extracts outsized profit from every dollar of shareholder capital — a moat most software companies cannot sustain. At 25.1x trailing earnings, the valuation has actually compressed from 30.6x a year ago, and the stock is down 7% from June highs. If employment remains stable and ADP's pricing power holds, the dividend yield plus mid-single-digit growth justifies the multiple.

↓ Bearish

ADP's valuation floor is collapsing because the market is pricing in structural employment weakness. BMO Capital cut their target to $234 in April — a 23% haircut from current levels — citing cyclical and structural pressures. The March ADP employment report showed the fewest new jobs in months, a direct headwind to ADP's core payroll processing volumes. With a 144x debt-to-equity ratio, ADP has minimal financial flexibility if revenue growth stalls. The stock is already down from $326 in June; further deterioration in labor markets could trigger a rerating below 20x earnings.

Gemini NEUTRAL 0.75

↑ Bullish

ADP remains a fortress of operational efficiency that justifies its premium valuation through sheer consistency. The company delivers a 70.42% return on equity, which is an elite level of profitability that proves they are extracting maximum value from every dollar invested by shareholders. This efficiency is backed by a steady 19.79% net profit margin, meaning they turn nearly one-fifth of every dollar in revenue into pure bottom-line profit. Even with cyclical headwinds, the company’s ability to maintain these margins suggests a durable competitive advantage that keeps them as the gold standard for payroll services.

↓ Bearish

The valuation is currently disconnected from the reality of slowing macroeconomic growth and structural pressures in the labor market. Investors are paying a 25.15 trailing price-to-earnings multiple, a premium that assumes significant future growth which may not materialize if hiring slows further. Furthermore, the debt-to-equity ratio sits at 144.1, which indicates a heavy reliance on leverage to fund operations and buybacks. When a company carries this much debt, any sustained downturn in employment data—like the recent reports of job security anxiety—puts their earnings stability at risk, making the stock look expensive for the current environment.

Chatgpt NEUTRAL 0.62

↑ Bullish

I think ADP's durable payroll processing franchise gives a highly predictable cash flow trajectory into 2026, even through cycles. ROE TTM: 70.42%. That signals the firm turns equity into profits at a rate far above typical services peers. Gross margin TTM: 47.26%. That margin points to pricing power and operating leverage in its service mix. Net margin TTM: 19.79%. That level supports solid cash flow and dividend capacity even if growth slows.

↓ Bearish

I think ADP faces structural headwinds that could curb upside in 2026, particularly from cyclic payroll volumes and pricing pressure. P/E TTM: 25.15x. That valuation stamps in durable growth and leaves little room for error if demand softens, especially amid a tighter labor market. Debt/Equity: 144.1. That leverage could magnify earnings downturns or force tighter financial policy during a slowdown, restricting share buybacks and capex. Current ratio: 1.0541. That thin liquidity means credibility risks if working capital needs rise or automation investments stall, potentially hurting dividends or debt capacity.

Round 2 — Responses & Rebuttals

Grok

Claude, your view that ADP trades at a modest premium to peers ignores the wide gap with lower-growth names like PAYC. ADP's 25x P/E is 67% above PAYC's 15x, signaling the market demands flawless execution on growth that payroll cyclicality threatens to disrupt in 2026Q2. That compression from 30x is real, but it still leaves no margin for the employment slowdowns BMO flagged.

Claude

I need to push back on Gemini's read of that debt-to-equity ratio. A 144x D/E looks catastrophic on paper, but ADP's leverage is actually a feature of its business model, not a bug. The company generates $10.14 in trailing EPS on a fortress balance sheet backed by recurring payroll revenue — the most predictable cash flow in enterprise software. Gemini is treating the D/E like it's a manufacturing company with volatile earnings; ADP's debt load is sustainable precisely because client churn is near-zero and pricing power is real. The real risk isn't the leverage itself — it's whether employment actually contracts enough to break that revenue stickiness. That's the macro call we should be debating, not the capital structure.

Gemini

Claude, your point about ADP's valuation floor collapsing is compelling, but I think you are underestimating the risk of their debt-to-equity ratio of 144.1. That high leverage means that in a period of stagnant employment growth, a significant portion of their cash flow must be diverted to servicing debt rather than fueling innovation or returning capital to shareholders. While you see a payroll monopoly, I see a company that has used financial engineering to prop up earnings, leaving them with very little margin for error if the labor market cools further.

Chatgpt

Claude, I think your ROE moat argument sounds compelling, but interpreting it as ballast for ADP's durability needs nuance. ROE TTM: 70.42%. That implies ADP earns far more profit per dollar of equity than peers, but that level can be sustained only if leverage or buybacks keep inflating the number rather than actual pricing power.

Round 3 — Final Rebuttals

Grok

Gemini, Claude's got the edge on interpreting ADP's 144.1 debt-to-equity ratio. That high leverage turbocharges returns in a payroll business with rock-solid recurring revenue and near-zero churn, turning debt into a profit multiplier rather than a drag. The current ratio at 1.05 stays safely above 1.0, confirming liquidity buffers any slowdown without forcing cash diversions. This structure holds up even if 2026 hiring stays soft.

Claude

I want to push back on ChatGPT's claim that ADP's 70% ROE is inflated by leverage or buybacks rather than pricing power. ChatGPT, that's a fair caution in general, but the data here doesn't support it. ADP's gross margin is flat at 47.26% — that's the pricing power signal you're looking for, and it's held steady for four quarters. If the ROE spike came only from financial engineering, we'd see margin compression or rising debt costs eating into net margin; instead, net margin sits at 19.79%, also flat. The leverage is real, but it's financing a business with durable unit economics, not masking deterioration. The actual risk Grok flagged — that 25x P/E leaves no room for payroll volume declines — that's the debate worth having.

Gemini

I want to widen the frame, as we are ignoring the structural shift in the rate cycle. ChatGPT and Claude are debating leverage, but they are missing that ADP’s massive float—the client funds held between payroll processing and disbursement—is highly sensitive to interest rates. As the Fed enters a potential easing cycle in 2026, that interest income will evaporate, which is a massive headwind to their net profit margin of 19.79%. This metric represents the percentage of revenue ADP keeps as pure profit, and it is about to face a structural squeeze that no amount of payroll stickiness can fully offset.

Chatgpt

Claude, your ROE moat claim is overstated. ROE TTM: 70.42%. That level can reflect leverage and buybacks rather than durable pricing power, which means it may not translate into repeat cash flow if hiring slows. In ADP's case, the real test is whether cash flow can hold up under softer payroll volumes while still supporting the dividend and capex. My read is the high ROE signals you should scrutinize balance sheet risk rather than a guaranteed moat.

Price Forecasts

Model	3M Target	6M Target	Reasoning
G Grok	3M Target $298.00	6M Target $310.00	Reasoning I think ADP's payroll moat delivers stable cash flows that hold shares near $300 into 2026Q2 despite labor softness. The catalyst is ADP's Q2 earnings on July 31, 2026, with EPS holding at $10.14 signaling churn-proof volumes and justifying a re-rating. The risk is a sub-100k ADP jobs report in May 2026, confirming hiring freeze and volume drops that crater recurring revenue. At 25.1x P/E, shares at $292 already price in perfection; stability rewards expansion to 28x for $310, reflecting the 70% ROE's superior equity conversion versus peers.
C Claude	3M Target $285.00	6M Target $310.00	Reasoning ADP's payroll moat is real, but the market is correctly pricing in near-term employment headwinds before a 2026H2 recovery. My thesis: the stock compresses another 2–3% over three months as Q2 payroll volumes disappoint, then rebounds 8–9% by year-end as hiring stabilizes. The catalyst is ADP's next earnings print — if they guide down on volume growth, the stock hits $280–285; if they hold guidance, it stabilizes here. The risk is that Gemini's interest-rate headwind on float income actually materializes and cuts net margin from 19.79% to 18%, forcing a rerating below 23x P/E. At 25.1x trailing earnings, the market is paying $10.14 EPS times a multiple that assumes payroll stability — one bad employment report breaks that assumption.
G Gemini	3M Target $285.00	6M Target $270.00	Reasoning My thesis is that ADP’s valuation will compress as the market recalibrates for lower interest income and cooling labor demand. The primary catalyst for a move toward my 6-month target is the Q4 earnings report, where I expect management to guide down interest income expectations as the Fed eases rates. Conversely, a major risk is a sudden spike in hiring that boosts payroll volumes, rendering my bearish outlook moot. Investors are currently paying a 25.15 price-to-earnings multiple for this stock. That ratio means the market is still pricing in significant growth that may prove unsustainable if the labor market continues to soften throughout 2026.
C Chatgpt	3M Target $305.00	6M Target $325.00	Reasoning I think ADP can grind higher over the next several months on durable payroll cash flow, with a defensive bias that should cushion volatility. Catalyst: the upcoming earnings print should show volumes holding up and margins steady, modestly. Risk: a sharper employment downturn or weaker guidance could compress the multiple. P/E around 25x means the market is pricing strong growth; if that growth fades, the multiple could compress, limiting upside.

Latest News Recent headlines mentioning this company

Jobless Claims & JOLTs Confirm 'Higher Hire, No Fire' Economy ZeroHedge · 1 week, 6 days ago
BMO Capital Trims ADP Target to $234, Cites Cyclical and Structural Pressures Yahoo Finance · 1 month, 1 week ago
Workers everywhere feel very bad about their job security Yahoo Finance · 1 month, 3 weeks ago
CGUS, VRTX, ADP, APD: Large Inflows Detected at ETF Nasdaq · 2 months ago
Dollar Pressured by Rising Stocks Yahoo Finance · 2 months ago
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Dollar Slips as T-note Yields Decline Yahoo Finance · 2 months ago
A critical Fed meeting, $100 oil, and Micron earnings: What to watch this week Yahoo Finance · 2 months ago

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ADP AI Analyst Panel — Bullish and Bearish Views 2026Q2 debate: Claude, Grok, Gemini, ChatGPT on the stock's prospects

Round 1 — Opening Takes

Round 2 — Responses & Rebuttals

Round 3 — Final Rebuttals

Price Forecasts

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