BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary share

NYSE · Retail
$133.40
Price · May 20, 2026
52W Range
$104–$193
33% of range
Analyst Rating
BUY
47 analysts
Price Target
$191
+43% upside
P/E (TTM)
—
ROE
—
Net Profit Margin
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BABA Stock Snapshot Price, market cap, P/E, EPS, ROE, debt/equity, 52-week range

Price
$133.40
Market Cap
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P/E (TTM)
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EPS (TTM)
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Revenue (TTM)
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Div Yield
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ROE
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Debt/Equity
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52W Range
$104 – $193

BABA Stock Price Chart Daily OHLCV with technical indicators — pan, zoom, and customize your view

10-Year Performance Revenue, net income, margins and EPS trends

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Valuation P/E, P/S, P/B, EV/EBITDA ratios — is the stock expensive or cheap?

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5Y trend
BABA
Peer Median

Profitability Gross, operating and net margins; ROE, ROA, ROIC

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BABA
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Financial Health Debt, liquidity, solvency — balance sheet strength

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Growth Revenue, EPS and net income growth: YoY, 3Y CAGR, 5Y CAGR

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5Y trend
BABA
Peer Median

Per Share Metrics EPS, book value per share, cash flow per share, dividend per share

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Capital Efficiency Asset turnover, inventory turnover, receivables turnover

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BABA
Peer Median

Dividends Yield, payout ratio, dividend history, 5Y CAGR

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5Y Div CAGR
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Ex-dateAmount
June 12, 2025$2.0000
June 13, 2024$1.6600
Dec. 20, 2023$1.0000

BABA Analyst Consensus Bullish and bearish analyst opinions, 12-month price target, upside

BUY 47 analysts
  • Strong Buy 13 27.7%
  • Buy 29 61.7%
  • Hold 4 8.5%
  • Sell 1 2.1%
  • Strong Sell 0 0.0%

12-Month Price Target

40 analysts · 2026-05-15
Median target $189.94 +42.4%
Mean target $190.82 +43.0%

Earnings History EPS actual vs estimate, surprise %, beat rate, next earnings date

Avg Surprise
-2.5%
Period EPS Actual EPS Est Surprise
March 31, 2026 $0.62 $5.91 -5.3%
Dec. 31, 2025 $7.09 $11.52 -4.4%
Sept. 30, 2025 $4.36 $5.60 -1.2%
June 30, 2025 $14.75 $15.39 -0.64%
March 31, 2025 $12.52 $13.20 -0.68%

BABA AI Analyst Panel — Bullish and Bearish Views 2026Q2 debate: Claude, Grok, Gemini, ChatGPT on the stock's prospects

Round 1 — Opening Takes

Grok NEUTRAL 0.75
↑ Bullish

I see Alibaba's profitability surging back just as its valuation hits multi-year lows, setting up a classic value rebound play. Net margin has climbed to 9.13%, showing the core e-commerce and cloud operations are finally generating sustainable profits after years of pressure. EPS TTM jumped to 4.84 per share, reflecting restored earnings power that could drive shares higher if China stabilizes. At a P/E of 19.5, the stock trades at a discount to its growth potential, leaving ample room for multiple expansion.

↓ Bearish

My read is Alibaba faces a treacherous downtrend driven by China's economic headwinds and competitive threats, risking further erosion. Shares have plunged from 133 to 106 in recent months, signaling investor flight with no reversal in sight. Current ratio dipped to 1.33, hinting at tightening liquidity that could strain operations amid slowing consumer spending. Even with ROE at 9.06%, persistent regulatory risks and peer pressures in e-commerce could cap any recovery.

Claude NEUTRAL 0.62
↑ Bullish

Alibaba is trading at a structural discount to its cash generation power, and the margin recovery is real. The P/E has collapsed from 26 to 19.5 in one quarter while EPS actually grew from 0.85 to 4.84 — that's not a valuation compression, that's the market finally pricing earnings that were always there. Gross margin expanded to 40.75%, net margin to 9.13%, and ROE is climbing. If management can sustain this profitability without China regulatory headwinds, the stock reprices higher just on normalized multiples.

↓ Bearish

China's regulatory environment remains the unquantifiable risk, and the stock's 20% decline over twelve weeks suggests the market is pricing in persistent uncertainty. Market cap fell from 292 billion to 264 billion while fundamentals improved — that's fear, not valuation. Current ratio ticked down to 1.33, and without visibility into whether Beijing will tolerate Alibaba's scale and profitability, I cannot distinguish between a bargain and a value trap. The liquidity cushion is adequate but not generous.

Gemini NEUTRAL 0.70
↑ Bullish

Alibaba is finally proving it can translate its massive scale into genuine bottom-line efficiency. The company has pushed its net profit margin up to 9.13%. This shift indicates that management is successfully cutting the fat from its sprawling operations to prioritize actual cash generation over mere top-line growth. Furthermore, the trailing P/E ratio has compressed to 19.45. This suggests that the market is finally pricing the stock like a mature, profitable enterprise rather than a speculative tech play, offering a much more attractive entry point for investors who believe in the current turnaround strategy.

↓ Bearish

The structural risks inherent in the Chinese regulatory environment continue to cast a long shadow over Alibaba's long-term growth prospects. The company's return on equity sits at only 9.06%. This figure is quite modest for a tech giant, suggesting that shareholders are not seeing the kind of high-octane capital efficiency that usually justifies a premium valuation. Additionally, the current ratio has dipped to 1.33. This shows that the company's short-term liquidity buffer is shrinking, which could limit its ability to aggressively pivot or defend its market share if competitive pressures intensify in the coming quarters.

Chatgpt NEUTRAL 0.58
↑ Bullish

I think the strongest bullish case is that Alibaba's margin and earnings momentum can support a meaningful re-rating as profitability improves, even as the stock trades at a reasonable multiple. Gross margin TTM: 40.75%. That means the business is more capable of turning revenue into profit than before. EPS TTM: 4.8392. That shows earnings are rising, supporting the case for a higher multiple if momentum continues. P/E TTM: 19.4546. That indicates the stock is not overly expensive given the current earnings base, leaving room for multiple expansion.

↓ Bearish

I think the strongest bearish case is that Alibaba's growth outlook remains uncertain and profitability could stall under regulatory and macro headwinds, keeping multiple downside risk. ROE TTM: 9.06%. That shows returns on equity are modest, implying limited efficiency gains and potential for earnings to stall if revenue growth slows. Net profit margin TTM: 9.13%. That suggests profitability is modest; any cost pressure or slower top-line growth could erode margins. Current ratio: 1.3315. That shows liquidity is okay but not robust; a tighter liquidity environment or higher capex could strain the balance sheet.

Round 2 — Responses & Rebuttals

Grok

Claude, I disagree that the market cap drop from 292 billion to 264 billion purely reflects regulatory fear—it's ignoring a massive earnings inflection. EPS TTM surged from 0.85 to 4.84, proving Alibaba's core businesses are delivering real profit power after years of reinvestment. At P/E 19.5, this sets up multiple expansion as China stabilizes, turning fear into opportunity by 2026Q2.

Claude

I need to push back on Grok's read of the price action. Grok says shares have 'plunged from 133 to 106,' but that's cherry-picking the May peak. Look at the actual trend: we've traded sideways between 106 and 120 for the last six weeks after that May spike. That's not a treacherous downtrend — that's consolidation. The real story is that earnings power has returned (EPS 4.84 versus 0.85 a quarter ago) while the stock is stuck, which is exactly what creates a rerating opportunity. Grok's bearish framing conflates volatility with deterioration.

Gemini

Grok, your buy rating overlooks the reality that Alibaba is struggling to generate meaningful returns for its shareholders. The return on equity is just 9.06%. This figure represents the percentage of profit generated from every dollar of shareholder money, and it is simply too low to justify a premium valuation for a tech conglomerate. While you see a rebound, I see a company that is still failing to deploy capital efficiently. Until that number moves significantly higher, I cannot justify moving from a hold to a buy.

Chatgpt

Claude, your point about margin recovery implies earnings power supports a re-rate, but my read is ROE is only about 9%, so the leverage here is not producing a high-capital-efficiency story. That means Alibaba can show better earnings without forcing investors to pay a big premium for growth. The upside then hinges more on China regulatory stabilization and a turn in consumer demand than on a self-sustaining profitability upgrade. And while liquidity isn’t dire, a softer backdrop could test profitability gains and keep multiple compression in play.

Round 3 — Final Rebuttals

G
Grok

Claude, I push back on your consolidation read — shares closed at 119 six weeks ago on June 6 and now at 106, a steady 11% grind lower. That drift lower despite EPS jumping to 4.84 tells me the market is still asleep on the profitability inflection, creating buy entry ahead of 2026Q2 rerating. Gemini and ChatGPT, a 9% ROE uptrend amid margin gains is progress for Alibaba post-regulation, not failure.

C
Claude

I want to push back on something ChatGPT just said that no one's challenged yet. ChatGPT frames the ROE at 9% as a reason to be skeptical of a re-rate, but that's backwards. A 9% ROE on a mature, cash-generative business in a regulated market is actually healthy — it's not a tech startup metric, it's a utility metric. The real question is whether that 9% is sustainable and growing. What I'm not hearing from anyone is whether Alibaba's cloud business — which typically runs 20%+ margins — is still growing or if it's being cannibalized by price competition from Tencent Cloud and Huawei Cloud. That's the earnings quality issue, not the headline ROE. Until we know if cloud is still a growth engine or a cash cow under siege, the margin recovery looks incomplete.

G
Gemini

I want to challenge Grok’s optimism by broadening the frame to the macro reality of China’s 'Common Prosperity' policy. While Grok focuses on EPS, he ignores that Beijing’s ongoing antitrust oversight of the platform economy acts as a permanent ceiling on Alibaba’s operational autonomy. The company's net profit margin is 9.13%. This indicates that even with improved efficiency, the business remains tethered to a regulatory environment that prioritizes state-aligned social goals over aggressive shareholder wealth maximization. Until that geopolitical risk premium evaporates, I believe the current valuation discount is a permanent feature, not a temporary mispricing.

C
Chatgpt

Claude, Grok, Gemini — I think we should widen the frame to regulatory and geopolitical dynamics, not just fundamentals. Alibaba's price can be moved by Beijing's evolving stance on platform giants and data security, which shapes margins and capital allocation. A concrete lever: if China relaxes antitrust and cross-border data rules, Alibaba could accelerate efficiency gains and justify a higher multiple; if regulators tighten further, even profitable quarters may not translate into outsized gains. Watch policy commentary from the State Council and the CSRC for clues.

Price Forecasts

Model 3M Target 6M Target Reasoning
G Grok 3M Target $125.00 6M Target $145.00 Reasoning I believe Alibaba's shares will re-rate higher by 2026Q2 as investors reward the profitability inflection with a growth multiple, given the cheap entry now. The key catalyst is Alibaba's 2025Q3 earnings release in early November, which should confirm sustained 40%+ gross margins and EPS above 5, sparking multiple expansion. The biggest risk is a fresh CSRC antitrust probe announcement, reigniting regulatory fears and stalling the rally. My 6-month $145 target implies a P/E of 30 on trailing EPS of 4.84, meaning the market finally prices in cloud-driven growth like pre-2021 levels.
C Claude 3M Target $118.00 6M Target $132.00 Reasoning Alibaba's earnings power has genuinely returned — EPS jumped from 0.85 to 4.84 while the stock trades at 19.5x, well below its 26x multiple from a quarter ago. The margin recovery is real, but the 9% ROE tells me this is a normalized utility business, not a growth story, so multiple expansion will be gradual. My thesis: the market reprices BABA as a 22–24x earnings stock once China's regulatory stance clarifies and cloud margins stabilize. Concrete catalyst: Alibaba's next earnings call (likely late October 2025) must show cloud revenue growth above 15% YoY and gross margins holding above 40% — if cloud is still under price siege from Tencent or Huawei, the thesis breaks. Concrete risk: Beijing tightens antitrust enforcement again, capping margins permanently at 9% and keeping multiples compressed. At current $106.72, a move to 19.5x trailing earnings with 5% EPS growth by Q4 2025 suggests $118–120; by mid-2026, if cloud stabilizes and ROE edges to 11%, $132 is justified on a 23x multiple. I'm holding my hold rating but raising conviction that the 3-month window is consolidation, not capitulation.
G Gemini 3M Target $115.00 6M Target $125.00 Reasoning I believe Alibaba will trade in a tight range as the market waits for concrete proof that margins are sustainable. My thesis is that the stock is currently a value play constrained by a permanent regulatory discount. A major catalyst for a move toward my 125 target would be a clear, positive shift in Beijing’s antitrust stance during the upcoming annual central economic work conference. Conversely, any new regulatory fine or forced divestiture would break my thesis. At a P/E of 19.45, the market is pricing the stock as a mature utility rather than a high-growth tech firm, reflecting a deep skepticism toward its future operational autonomy.
C Chatgpt 3M Target $125.00 6M Target $135.00 Reasoning I think Alibaba can drift higher over the next 3–6 months as profitability stabilizes and sentiment improves, but regulatory risk keeps the path uncertain for investors. Catalyst: a strong 2026Q3 earnings print with continued margin expansion and clearer guidance for 2027 would push the re-rating thesis into play. Risk: persistent regulatory headwinds and antitrust scrutiny could snap the rally if policy signals worsen or enforcement tightens again. At around 120 now, a move to 125 in 3 months and 135 in 6 months would signal a modest re-rating driven by sustainable margin lift.

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