CME CME Group Inc. - Class A Common Stock

NASDAQ · Financial Services · View on SEC EDGAR ↗
$300.05
Price · May 20, 2026
Fundamentals as of Apr 24, 2026
52W Range
$257–$328
61% of range
Analyst Rating
BUY
21 analysts
Price Target
$307
+2% upside
P/E (TTM)
24.5
ROE
14.8%
Net Profit Margin
62.5%

CME Stock Snapshot Price, market cap, P/E, EPS, ROE, debt/equity, 52-week range

Price
$300.05
Market Cap
—
P/E (TTM)
24.5
EPS (TTM)
$11.16
Revenue (TTM)
$6.52B
Div Yield
—
ROE
14.8%
Debt/Equity
0.0
52W Range
$257 – $328

CME Stock Price Chart Daily OHLCV with technical indicators — pan, zoom, and customize your view

10-Year Performance Revenue, net income, margins and EPS trends

Revenue & Net Income $6.52B
10-point trend, +81.4%
2016-12-31 → 2025-12-31
EPS $11.16
10-point trend, +146.4%
2016-12-31 → 2025-12-31
Free Cash Flow $4.19B
10-point trend, +158.2%
2016-12-31 → 2025-12-31
Margins 62.5%

Valuation P/E, P/S, P/B, EV/EBITDA ratios — is the stock expensive or cheap?

Metric
5Y trend
CME
Peer Median
P/E (TTM)
5-point trend, -21.9%
24.5
30.8

Profitability Gross, operating and net margins; ROE, ROA, ROIC

Metric
5Y trend
CME
Peer Median
Operating Margin
5-point trend, +15.0%
64.9%
—
Net Profit Margin
5-point trend, +11.1%
62.5%
27.7%
ROA
5-point trend, +47.6%
2.4%
7.8%
ROE
5-point trend, +53.0%
14.8%
13.9%
ROIC
5-point trend, +53.1%
11.2%
—

Financial Health Debt, liquidity, solvency — balance sheet strength

Metric
5Y trend
CME
Peer Median
Debt / Equity
5-point trend, -100.0%
0.0
34.1
Current Ratio
5-point trend, +2.3%
1.0
1.0
Quick Ratio
5-point trend, +53.1%
0.0
—

Growth Revenue, EPS and net income growth: YoY, 3Y CAGR, 5Y CAGR

Metric
5Y trend
CME
Peer Median
Revenue YoY
5-point trend, +39.0%
6.4%
—
Revenue CAGR 3Y
5-point trend, +39.0%
9.1%
—
Revenue CAGR 5Y
5-point trend, +39.0%
5.9%
—
EPS YoY
5-point trend, +53.1%
15.4%
—
Net Income YoY
5-point trend, +54.4%
15.5%
—

Per Share Metrics EPS, book value per share, cash flow per share, dividend per share

Metric
5Y trend
CME
Peer Median
EPS (Diluted)
5-point trend, +53.1%
$11.16
—

Capital Efficiency Asset turnover, inventory turnover, receivables turnover

Metric
5Y trend
CME
Peer Median
Payout Ratio
5-point trend, +16.3%
96.6%
—

Dividends Yield, payout ratio, dividend history, 5Y CAGR

Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
96.6%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-dateAmount
March 10, 2026$7.4500
Dec. 12, 2025$1.2500
Sept. 9, 2025$1.2500
June 9, 2025$1.2500
March 7, 2025$1.2500
Dec. 27, 2024$5.8000
Dec. 9, 2024$1.1500
Sept. 9, 2024$1.1500
June 7, 2024$1.1500
March 7, 2024$1.1500
Dec. 27, 2023$5.2500
Dec. 7, 2023$1.1000
Sept. 7, 2023$1.1000
June 8, 2023$1.1000
March 9, 2023$1.1000
Dec. 27, 2022$4.5000
Dec. 8, 2022$1.0000
Sept. 8, 2022$1.0000
June 9, 2022$1.0000
March 9, 2022$1.0000

CME Analyst Consensus Bullish and bearish analyst opinions, 12-month price target, upside

HOLD 21 analysts
  • Strong Buy 2 9.5%
  • Buy 8 38.1%
  • Hold 8 38.1%
  • Sell 3 14.3%
  • Strong Sell 0 0.0%

12-Month Price Target

15 analysts · 2026-05-16
Median target $316.00 +5.3%
Mean target $306.60 +2.2%

Earnings History EPS actual vs estimate, surprise %, beat rate, next earnings date

Avg Surprise
-0.01%
Period EPS Actual EPS Est Surprise
March 31, 2026 $3.36 $3.40 -0.04%
Dec. 31, 2025 $2.77 $2.77 -0.00%
Sept. 30, 2025 $2.68 $2.66 0.02%
June 30, 2025 $2.96 $2.95 0.01%
March 31, 2025 $2.80 $2.84 -0.04%

Peer Comparison Key metrics vs sector peers

Ticker Market Cap P/E Rev YoY Net Margin ROE Gross Margin
CME — 24.5 6.4% 62.5% 14.8% —
SPGI $156.15B 35.6 7.9% 29.1% 13.9% —
ICE $91.83B 28.1 7.5% 26.2% 11.7% —
MCO — 37.4 8.9% 31.9% 64.5% —
NDAQ $55.35B 31.4 11.7% 21.6% 15.3% 63.5%
COIN $60.57B 50.8 9.4% 17.5% 9.4% —
MSCI $42.21B 36.6 9.8% 38.4% -67.9% —
TW $25.32B 28.4 18.9% 39.6% 13.2% —
FDS $14.05B 24.0 5.4% 25.7% 28.1% —

Full Fundamentals All metrics by year — income statement, balance sheet, cash flow

Income Statement 12
Annual Income Statement data for CME
Metric Trend 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Revenue 12-point trend, +109.5% $6.52B $6.13B $5.58B $5.02B $4.69B $4.88B $4.87B $4.31B $3.64B $3.60B $3.33B $3.11B
Operating Expenses 12-point trend, +70.5% $2.29B $2.20B $2.14B $2.00B $2.04B $2.25B $2.28B $1.70B $1.33B $1.39B $1.34B $1.34B
Operating Income 12-point trend, +139.2% $4.23B $3.93B $3.44B $3.02B $2.65B $2.64B $2.59B $2.61B $2.31B $2.20B $1.99B $1.77B
Other Non-op 12-point trend, -268644.4% $-4.83B $-3.66B $-4.69B $-1.86B $343M $-122M $-535M $-570M $-328M $-41M $-43M $2M
Pretax Income 12-point trend, +200.9% $5.33B $4.54B $4.15B $3.49B $3.37B $2.72B $2.69B $2.78B $2.53B $2.29B $1.96B $1.77B
Income Tax 12-point trend, +95.2% $1.26B $1.02B $927M $799M $737M $616M $574M $814M $-1.54B $754M $710M $644M
Net Income 12-point trend, +261.3% $4.07B $3.53B $3.23B $2.69B $2.64B $2.11B $2.12B $1.96B $4.06B $1.53B $1.25B $1.13B
EPS (Basic) 12-point trend, +231.8% $11.18 $9.69 $8.87 $7.41 $7.30 $5.88 $5.93 $5.73 $12.00 $4.55 $3.71 $3.37
EPS (Diluted) 12-point trend, +233.1% $11.16 $9.67 $8.86 $7.40 $7.29 $5.87 $5.91 $5.71 $11.94 $4.53 $3.69 $3.35
Shares (Basic) 12-point trend, +7.5% 359,648,000 359,389,000 359,023,000 358,713,000 358,340,000 357,764,000 357,155,000 342,344,000 338,707,000 337,496,000 336,224,000 334,409,000
Shares (Diluted) 12-point trend, +7.2% 360,310,000 359,944,000 359,500,000 359,181,000 358,929,000 358,524,000 358,239,000 343,737,000 340,226,000 338,966,000 337,894,000 336,063,000
EBITDA 12-point trend, +139.2% $4.23B $3.93B $3.44B $3.02B $2.65B $2.64B $2.59B $2.61B $2.31B $2.20B $1.99B $1.77B
Balance Sheet 24
Annual Balance Sheet data for CME
Metric Trend 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Cash & Equivalents 12-point trend, +223.3% $4.42B $2.89B $2.91B $2.72B $2.83B $1.63B $1.55B $1.37B $1.90B $1.87B $1.69B $1.37B
Short-term Investments 12-point trend, +67.3% $125M $113M $112M $96M $115M $101M $83M $73M $90M $83M $72M $75M
Receivables 12-point trend, +87.3% $639M $573M $536M $483M $434M $461M $492M $553M $360M $364M $358M $341M
Other Current Assets 12-point trend, +165.7% $522M $559M $1.14B $530M $428M $307M $364M $430M $368M $172M $229M $196M
Current Assets 12-point trend, +288.7% $165.36B $103.03B $94.89B $139.08B $161.76B $89.28B $39.57B $41.89B $46.91B $40.03B $37.90B $42.55B
PP&E (Net) 12-point trend, -28.7% $363M $386M $410M $456M $505M $579M $544M $449M $400M $425M $492M $509M
PP&E (Gross) 12-point trend, +9.5% $1.37B $1.41B $1.34B $1.60B $1.54B $1.54B $1.41B $1.21B $1.08B $1.02B $1.28B $1.25B
Accum. Depreciation 12-point trend, +35.7% $1.01B $1.02B $933M $1.15B $1.04B $961M $868M $761M $677M $597M $789M $741M
Goodwill 12-point trend, +38.9% $10.51B $10.49B $10.50B $10.48B $10.53B $10.80B $10.74B $10.81B $7.57B $7.57B $7.57B $7.57B
Intangibles 12-point trend, -1.0% $2.61B $2.82B $3.05B $3.27B $3.53B $4.87B $5.12B $5.50B $2.35B $2.44B $2.54B $2.64B
Other Non-current Assets 12-point trend, +33.0% $2.40B $3.54B $3.69B $3.71B $3.28B $1.96B $2.07B $1.66B $1.39B $1.73B $1.68B $1.81B
Total Assets 12-point trend, +174.7% $198.42B $137.45B $129.71B $174.18B $196.78B $124.66B $75.22B $77.48B $75.79B $69.37B $67.36B $72.24B
Accounts Payable 12-point trend, +94.6% $72M $80M $91M $121M $49M $69M $62M $116M $31M $26M $29M $37M
Short-term Debt 9-point trend, +0.00 $0 $750M $0 $16M $749M $0 $0 $574M $0 · · ·
Current Liabilities 12-point trend, +286.0% $160.30B $102.31B $93.42B $137.69B $160.40B $88.20B $38.52B $41.27B $45.67B $38.95B $36.82B $41.53B
Capital Leases 7-point trend, -53.9% $237M $289M $344M $384M $449M $492M $515M · · · · ·
Deferred Tax 12-point trend, -28.2% $5.24B $5.25B $5.33B $5.36B $5.39B $5.61B $5.64B $5.67B $4.86B $7.29B $7.36B $7.30B
Other Non-current Liabilities 12-point trend, +95.3% $735M $721M $798M $826M $896M $1.06B $1.16B $745M $616M $561M $396M $376M
Total Liabilities 12-point trend, +230.7% $169.70B $110.96B $102.97B $147.30B $169.38B $98.31B $49.06B $51.51B $53.38B $49.03B $46.81B $51.32B
Total Debt 7-point trend, -100.0% $0 $750M $0 $16M $749M · $0 $574M · · · ·
Retained Earnings 12-point trend, +93.9% $6.43B $4.19B $4.46B $4.75B $5.15B $5.00B $5.01B $4.86B $4.50B $2.52B $2.91B $3.32B
AOCI 12-point trend, +1221.0% $82M $-106M $-56M $-133M $54M $135M $3M $5M $14M $-14M $-81M $6M
Stockholders' Equity 12-point trend, +37.3% $28.73B $26.49B $26.74B $26.88B $27.40B $26.35B $26.16B $25.97B $22.41B $20.34B $20.55B $20.92B
Liabilities + Equity 12-point trend, +174.7% $198.42B $137.45B $129.71B $174.18B $196.78B $124.66B $75.22B $77.48B $75.79B $69.37B $67.36B $72.24B
Cash Flow 13
Annual Cash Flow data for CME
Metric Trend 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
D&A 12-point trend, -18.9% $108M $115M $126M $135M $148M $153M $159M $119M $113M $129M $129M $133M
Stock-based Comp 12-point trend, +73.0% $95M $90M $83M $84M $75M $96M $73M $96M $58M $66M $61M $55M
Deferred Tax 12-point trend, -107.7% $-6M $-66M $-75M $-23M $35M $-42M $-4M $114M $-2.45B $-83M $63M $79M
Amort. of Intangibles 12-point trend, +122.1% $223M $222M $227M $228M $238M $311M $315M $130M $96M $96M $99M $101M
Operating Cash Flow 12-point trend, +231.2% $4.28B $3.69B $3.45B $3.06B $2.40B $2.72B $2.67B $2.44B $1.75B $1.73B $1.53B $1.29B
CapEx 12-point trend, -40.7% $84M $94M $76M $90M $127M $198M $246M $117M $82M $92M $114M $141M
Investing Cash Flow 12-point trend, +852.8% $1.50B $-83M $21M $-490M $58M $-176M $-153M $-1.89B $180M $54M $18M $-199M
Debt Issued 7-point trend, +0.00 · · · · · $0 $0 $1.19B $0 $0 $744M $0
Net Debt Issued 7-point trend, +0.00 · · · · · $0 $0 $1.19B $0 $0 $744M $0
Dividends Paid 12-point trend, +162.8% $3.93B $3.58B $3.24B $2.63B $2.19B $2.11B $1.70B $2.15B $1.99B $1.79B $1.34B $1.50B
Financing Cash Flow 12-point trend, +2673.4% $56.51B $5.08B $-48.34B $-25.38B $69.91B $47.25B $-2.34B $-1.08B $-1.99B $-1.62B $-1.22B $-2.20B
Net Change in Cash 12-point trend, +5743.8% $62.29B $8.68B $-44.86B $-22.82B $72.37B $49.79B $-2.20B $-529M $-54M $165M $326M $-1.10B
Free Cash Flow 12-point trend, +264.4% $4.19B $3.60B $3.38B $2.97B $2.28B $2.52B $2.43B $2.32B $1.76B $1.62B $1.40B $1.15B
Profitability 7
Annual Profitability data for CME
Metric Trend 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Operating Margin 12-point trend, +14.1% 64.9% 64.1% 61.6% 60.1% 56.4% 54.0% 53.2% 60.5% 63.4% 61.3% 59.8% 56.8%
Net Margin 12-point trend, +72.5% 62.5% 57.5% 57.8% 53.6% 56.2% 43.1% 43.5% 45.5% 111.5% 42.7% 37.5% 36.2%
Pretax Margin 12-point trend, +43.6% 81.8% 74.1% 74.5% 69.5% 71.9% 55.7% 55.2% 64.5% 69.3% 63.6% 58.8% 56.9%
EBITDA Margin 12-point trend, +14.1% 64.9% 64.1% 61.6% 60.1% 56.4% 54.0% 53.2% 60.5% 63.4% 61.3% 59.8% 56.8%
ROA 12-point trend, +36.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.1% 1.5% 1.6% 2.1% 2.8% 2.6% 5.6% 2.2% 1.8% 1.8%
ROE 12-point trend, +175.2% 14.8% 13.2% 12.0% 9.9% 9.6% 7.9% 8.0% 8.0% 18.8% 7.4% 5.9% 5.4%
ROIC 12-point trend, +109.1% 11.2% 11.2% 10.0% 8.6% 7.3% 7.8% 7.8% 7.0% 16.6% 7.3% 6.2% 5.4%
Liquidity & Solvency 3
Annual Liquidity & Solvency data for CME
Metric Trend 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Current Ratio 12-point trend, +0.7% 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Quick Ratio 12-point trend, -24.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Debt / Equity 7-point trend, -100.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 · 0.0 0.0 · · · ·
Efficiency 2
Annual Efficiency data for CME
Metric Trend 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Asset Turnover 12-point trend, -21.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Receivables Turnover 12-point trend, +11.3% 10.8 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.5 10.2 9.3 9.4 10.1 10.0 9.5 9.7
Per Share 4
Annual Per Share data for CME
Metric Trend 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Revenue / Share 12-point trend, +95.4% $18.10 $17.03 $15.52 $13.97 $13.07 $13.62 $13.59 $12.54 $10.71 $10.61 $9.85 $9.26
Cash Flow / Share 12-point trend, +208.9% $11.87 $10.25 $9.61 $8.51 $6.69 $7.57 $7.46 $7.10 $5.41 $5.06 $4.48 $3.84
Dividend / Share 12-point trend, +13.6% $5 $10 $10 $8 $6 $6 $6 $5 $6 $6 $5 $4
EPS (TTM) 12-point trend, +233.1% $11.16 $9.67 $8.86 $7.40 $7.29 $5.87 $5.91 $5.71 $11.94 $4.53 $3.69 $3.35
Growth Rates 10
Annual Growth Rates data for CME
Metric Trend 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Revenue YoY 5-point trend, +260.5% 6.4% 9.9% 11.2% 7.0% -4.0% · · · · · · ·
Revenue CAGR 3Y 3-point trend, +100.7% 9.1% 9.3% 4.5% · · · · · · · · ·
Revenue CAGR 5Y 5.9% · · · · · · · · · · ·
EPS YoY 5-point trend, -36.3% 15.4% 9.1% 19.7% 1.5% 24.2% · · · · · · ·
EPS CAGR 3Y 3-point trend, -0.2% 14.7% 9.9% 14.7% · · · · · · · · ·
EPS CAGR 5Y 13.7% · · · · · · · · · · ·
Net Income YoY 5-point trend, -38.5% 15.5% 9.3% 19.9% 2.1% 25.2% · · · · · · ·
Net Income CAGR 3Y 3-point trend, -3.1% 14.8% 10.2% 15.3% · · · · · · · · ·
Net Income CAGR 5Y 14.1% · · · · · · · · · · ·
Dividend CAGR 5Y 13.3% · · · · · · · · · · ·
Valuation (TTM) 6
Annual Valuation (TTM) data for CME
Metric Trend 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Revenue TTM 12-point trend, +109.5% $6.52B $6.13B $5.58B $5.02B $4.69B $4.88B $4.87B $4.31B $3.64B $3.60B $3.33B $3.11B
Net Income TTM 12-point trend, +261.3% $4.07B $3.53B $3.23B $2.69B $2.64B $2.11B $2.12B $1.96B $4.06B $1.53B $1.25B $1.13B
P/E 12-point trend, -7.5% 24.5 24.0 23.8 22.7 31.3 31.0 34.0 32.9 12.2 25.5 24.6 26.5
Earnings Yield 12-point trend, +8.2% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 4.4% 3.2% 3.2% 2.9% 3.0% 8.2% 3.9% 4.1% 3.8%
Payout Ratio 12-point trend, -27.3% 96.6% 101.7% 100.3% 97.9% 83.0% 100.2% 80.1% 109.6% 49.1% 116.5% 107.7% 132.8%
Annual Payout 12-point trend, +162.8% $3.93B $3.58B $3.24B $2.63B $2.19B $2.11B $1.70B $2.15B $1.99B $1.79B $1.34B $1.50B

Financial Statements Income statement, balance sheet, cash flow — annual, last 5 years

Income Statement
2025-12-312024-12-312023-12-312022-12-312021-12-31
Revenue $6.52B$6.13B$5.58B$5.02B$4.69B
Operating Margin % 64.9%64.1%61.6%60.1%56.4%
Net Income $4.07B$3.53B$3.23B$2.69B$2.64B
Diluted EPS $11.16$9.67$8.86$7.40$7.29
Balance Sheet
2025-12-312024-12-312023-12-312022-12-312021-12-31
Debt / Equity 0.00.00.00.00.0
Current Ratio 1.01.01.01.01.0
Quick Ratio 0.00.00.00.00.0
Cash Flow
2025-12-312024-12-312023-12-312022-12-312021-12-31
Free Cash Flow $4.19B$3.60B$3.38B$2.97B$2.28B

CME AI Analyst Panel — Bullish and Bearish Views 2026Q2 debate: Claude, Grok, Gemini, ChatGPT on the stock's prospects

Round 1 — Opening Takes

Grok NEUTRAL 0.75
↑ Bullish

CME Group dominates derivatives trading with razor-thin costs, poised to surf any 2026 volatility wave from crypto or commodities. Its 95.97% gross margin means every additional trade volume falls nearly straight to profits, a moat few exchanges match. Launching Avalanche and Sui futures on May 4 (April 9 news) expands its crypto lineup, chasing volumes as Bitcoin stabilizes post-19% drop. Net margin holds at 33.33%, proving resilience even in flat quarters.

↓ Bearish

CME's stalled growth engine risks underperforming if trading volumes normalize post-volatility. ROE at 13.76% trails peers like MCO's 62.81%, showing weaker returns on capital amid flat EPS of $10.45. Debt/equity at 12.14 amplifies risks in a slowdown, with current ratio barely at 1.02 signaling tight liquidity. P/E of 26.16 aligns with peers but buys no momentum.

Claude NEUTRAL 0.68
↑ Bullish

CME is a cash machine in a structurally growing market — futures and options volumes are climbing as institutional hedging demand stays elevated. The 33.33% net margin tells you almost every dollar of revenue drops to the bottom line, which is rare for financial infrastructure. At 26.16 times trailing earnings, the stock trades in line with peers like ICE (27.5x) and below rating agencies like SPGI (29.2x), so the valuation isn't stretched. The crypto futures expansion — Avalanche and Sui launching May 4 — signals management is capturing new asset classes before competitors do, a genuine growth vector.

↓ Bearish

CME's 13.76% ROE is structurally weak for a company with a 12.14 debt-to-equity ratio that high. That leverage isn't generating outsized returns; it's just amplifying ordinary profitability, which raises refinancing risk if rates stay sticky. The stock has drifted sideways for six months — closing at $275 now versus $280 in early May — despite a strong macro backdrop, suggesting the market is pricing in maturity, not growth. The 95.97% gross margin masks a business that's essentially flat-lined: EPS, revenue multiples, and market cap have all stalled for two quarters. Without a catalyst beyond crypto futures, this looks like a mature utility trading on momentum.

Gemini NEUTRAL 0.70
↑ Bullish

CME Group remains a dominant infrastructure play that benefits from market volatility regardless of the asset class. The company maintains an incredible 95.97% gross margin. This means that almost every dollar of revenue flows directly to the top line, reflecting a near-monopoly position in futures clearing. Furthermore, their expansion into new derivatives, like the Avalanche and Sui futures mentioned on April 9, shows they are successfully capturing volume from the crypto sector. At a P/E of 26.16, the market is pricing in steady growth, which is reasonable for a firm that effectively taxes the global financial system.

↓ Bearish

The fundamental growth at CME has completely stalled, leaving the stock stuck in a range with no clear catalyst for a breakout. The return on equity sits at 13.76%. This is a mediocre figure for a financial exchange, suggesting that the company is struggling to deploy its capital efficiently compared to high-growth peers. Additionally, the debt-to-equity ratio is currently 12.14. This high leverage indicates that the company is heavily reliant on borrowed funds to maintain its operations and dividend payouts, which leaves little room for error if trading volumes across their core markets begin to contract.

Chatgpt NEUTRAL 0.62
↑ Bullish

I think CME's core, fee-based model should generate durable cash flow, with meaningful upside from the crypto futures expansion. P/E TTM: 26.16. That suggests CME trades in line with peers for a steady, regulated exchange business. Gross margin TTM: 95.97%. That shows revenue almost all falls to the bottom line, enabling strong cash generation as volumes grow. Debt/Equity: 12.14. Low leverage keeps risk in check and leaves room to fund buybacks and growth initiatives if crypto lines add to revenue.

↓ Bearish

I think CME's upside could be capped if the crypto-derivatives push doesn't deliver volume or if regulatory shifts weigh on margins. P/E TTM: 26.16. That isn't cheap for a slow-growth period; a weak crypto cycle could compress the multiple. ROE TTM: 13.76%. That is below peers like MCO, suggesting CME isn't generating as much earnings from shareholder equity, which raises risk if growth slows. PS TTM: 8.7194. A high price-to-sales multiple makes the stock vulnerable to any revenue dip since investors are paying a premium for growth that may not materialize.

Round 2 — Responses & Rebuttals

Grok

ChatGPT, calling a 12.14 debt-to-equity ratio 'low leverage' overlooks how it magnifies downside risks for CME in a volume slowdown. That means for every dollar of equity, the company carries over $12 in debt, which crushes returns if trading dries up — explaining the mediocre 13.76% ROE versus MCO's 62.81%. It's not a safety net; it's a vulnerability that caps aggressive growth bets like crypto futures.

Claude

I need to push back on Grok's liquidity concern. A current ratio of 1.02 is tight, yes, but that's not the right lens for CME. This is a clearinghouse — they hold customer margin deposits that flow through the balance sheet as both assets and liabilities, which mechanically depresses the current ratio. The real question is whether CME can service its debt and fund operations, and at 33.33% net margin with $98 billion in market cap, that's not in doubt. Grok is conflating accounting structure with actual financial stress, which are different animals. The 12.14 debt-to-equity is real leverage, but it's not a liquidity crisis waiting to happen.

Gemini

Claude, your point about CME's debt-to-equity ratio being a structural weakness is spot on, but I think you are underestimating the impact of their current ratio of 1.02. That metric shows the company has barely enough liquid assets to cover its short-term obligations, leaving almost zero margin for error if market volatility spikes and clearing house capital requirements shift. While the 95.97% gross margin provides a massive buffer for profitability, the tight liquidity suggests management is running the balance sheet dangerously thin to support shareholder returns in a stagnant growth environment.

Chatgpt

Claude, I think your ROE critique misses the bigger cash-flow story CME prints. ROE TTM: 13.76%. That level signals a steady, cash-generating core rather than a high-growth engine, which matters for CME because durable fee-based cash flow underpins buybacks and dividends while it pursues crypto expansion and volatility-driven volumes, offering downside protection if volatility eases but upside if crypto activity re-accelerates.

Round 3 — Final Rebuttals

G
Grok

Gemini, I'm siding with Claude on the current ratio of 1.02 — it's not a red flag for CME because clearinghouses like this hold massive customer margin deposits that boost both current assets and liabilities equally, masking true liquidity strength. The real stress test is operational cash flow, covered by that 33.33% net margin which turns volume into profits effortlessly. Your volatility spike worry overstates the risk when margins provide the buffer.

C
Claude

I want to push back on ChatGPT's framing of CME's ROE as a 'steady cash-generating core.' A 13.76% ROE is not a feature — it's a red flag when you're carrying 12.14 times debt-to-equity. That leverage should be amplifying returns if management deployed it well, but it isn't. Compare that to ICE at 11.63% ROE with similar leverage, or MCO at 62.81% with far less debt. CME's problem isn't that it's boring; it's that the borrowed capital isn't earning its cost. The crypto futures expansion is real, but it's being grafted onto a machine that's already capital-inefficient. Until we see ROE move above 16–17%, the leverage is a drag, not a tool.

G
Gemini

I want to widen the frame here, because we are obsessing over the balance sheet while ignoring the macro regime shift. Grok and Claude, you are missing that CME’s growth is fundamentally tethered to the interest rate cycle, not just internal efficiency. We are currently seeing a flattening yield curve which historically compresses the hedging demand for interest rate futures, CME’s largest revenue driver. When rates stabilize, the volatility that drives their volume dries up. Even if they add new crypto products, those are rounding errors compared to the massive volume of Treasury futures that fuel their 33.33% net margin, or the percentage of revenue kept as pure profit.

C
Chatgpt

Grok, I think the big swing factor for CME in 2026Q2 is regulatory and macro dynamics around crypto derivatives. Metric: crypto derivatives volume. Higher volumes drive clearing and trading fees, so more activity lifts cash flow even if margins stay flat. Gemini, a broader competitive frame shows ICE's Bakkt crypto-derivatives roadmap could cap CME's upside. Metric: ICE's Bakkt roadmap. Faster rollout could siphon crypto-volume growth from CME if Bakkt expands into more products.

Price Forecasts

Model 3M Target 6M Target Reasoning
G Grok 3M Target $272.00 6M Target $285.00 Reasoning I think CME deserves a modest re-rating to recent highs if crypto futures deliver incremental volumes, but flat core growth keeps upside capped near $285. The key catalyst is CME's Q2 2026 earnings release around late July 2026, where Avalanche and Sui futures launch volumes — starting May 4 — could show 5-10% fee revenue lift if crypto stabilizes. The big risk is a flattening yield curve persisting into H2 2026, crimping interest rate futures that drive 70% of volumes and exposing the 12.14 debt/equity leverage. At 26.16 times trailing earnings, that's fair for steady 33% net margins but assumes no EPS growth — any pickup justifies $285.
C Claude 3M Target $282.00 6M Target $295.00 Reasoning CME is a mature cash machine trading at fair value, not a growth story — my thesis is that the stock re-rates higher only if crypto futures volumes materialize and the Fed signals a pivot away from sticky rates that compress hedging demand. The catalyst: CME's Q2 2026 earnings (late July) must show crypto derivatives revenue acceleration — Avalanche and Sui launching May 4 should show up in the print. The risk: if Treasury futures volumes contract because the yield curve stays flat and rate volatility dies, the 33.33% net margin compresses faster than crypto can offset. At 26.16x trailing earnings, CME isn't cheap for a stalled-growth utility, so upside requires proof that new asset classes drive incremental volume, not just cannibalization. My 3m target ($282) reflects modest recovery to May highs; 6m ($295) assumes Q2 earnings beat on crypto traction, justifying a modest multiple expansion to 28x on renewed confidence in the expansion thesis.
G Gemini 3M Target $272.00 6M Target $285.00 Reasoning My thesis is that CME will remain range-bound as the market waits for a definitive shift in interest rate volatility to drive volume. A concrete catalyst for the 6-month target is the August 2026 earnings report, where a sustained uptick in crypto-derivative volumes could finally signal a new growth engine outside of stagnant Treasury futures. Conversely, a sharp decline in market volatility would break my thesis by eroding trading demand. The current P/E of 26.16 means investors are paying a premium for a mature utility, and without a clear catalyst, the stock will likely struggle to justify a higher multiple until volumes accelerate.
C Chatgpt 3M Target $270.00 6M Target $280.00 Reasoning I think CME can drift modestly higher over the next several months as a steady, fee-based infrastructure play benefiting from crypto derivatives expansion, resilience in fee retention, and a supportive macro backdrop. Catalyst: CME's May 4 Avalanche and Sui futures launch could lift volumes if demand materializes. Risk: The biggest risk is crypto volumes disappoint or regulatory changes compress margins. At 266.3 today, the move to 270 and 280 implies a small re-rating.

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