COST Costco Wholesale Corporation - Common Stock

NASDAQ · Retail · View on SEC EDGAR ↗
$1082.43
Price · May 20, 2026
Fundamentals as of Mar 11, 2026
52W Range
$844–$1096
94% of range
Analyst Rating
BUY
44 analysts
Price Target
$1073
P/E (TTM)
51.8
ROE
29.6%
Net Profit Margin
2.9%

COST Stock Snapshot Price, market cap, P/E, EPS, ROE, debt/equity, 52-week range

Price
$1082.43
Market Cap
$418.34B
P/E (TTM)
51.8
EPS (TTM)
$18.21
Revenue (TTM)
$275.24B
Div Yield
0.52%
ROE
29.6%
Debt/Equity
0.2
52W Range
$844 – $1097

COST Stock Price Chart Daily OHLCV with technical indicators — pan, zoom, and customize your view

10-Year Performance Revenue, net income, margins and EPS trends

Revenue & Net Income $275.24B
7-point trend, +80.2%
2019-09-01 → 2025-08-31
EPS $18.21
7-point trend, +120.5%
2019-09-01 → 2025-08-31
Free Cash Flow $7.84B
7-point trend, +133.4%
2019-09-01 → 2025-08-31
Margins 2.9%
2019-09-01 → 2019-09-01

Valuation P/E, P/S, P/B, EV/EBITDA ratios — is the stock expensive or cheap?

Metric
5Y trend
COST
Peer Median
P/E (TTM)
5-point trend, +29.7%
51.8
23.1
P/S (TTM)
5-point trend, +49.7%
1.5
0.7
P/B
5-point trend, +26.6%
14.3
3.9
EV / EBITDA
5-point trend, +39.5%
31.9
—
Price / FCF
5-point trend, +44.1%
53.4
—

Profitability Gross, operating and net margins; ROE, ROA, ROIC

Metric
5Y trend
COST
Peer Median
Operating Margin
5-point trend, +10.2%
3.8%
—
Net Profit Margin
5-point trend, +14.8%
2.9%
3.1%
ROA
5-point trend, +26.4%
11.0%
6.9%
ROE
5-point trend, +5.9%
29.6%
23.7%
ROIC
5-point trend, +9.2%
22.2%
—

Financial Health Debt, liquidity, solvency — balance sheet strength

Metric
5Y trend
COST
Peer Median
Debt / Equity
5-point trend, -53.5%
0.2
18.9
Current Ratio
5-point trend, +3.2%
1.0
1.0
Quick Ratio
5-point trend, +4.9%
0.5
—

Growth Revenue, EPS and net income growth: YoY, 3Y CAGR, 5Y CAGR

Metric
5Y trend
COST
Peer Median
Revenue YoY
5-point trend, +40.5%
8.2%
—
Revenue CAGR 3Y
5-point trend, +40.5%
6.6%
—
Revenue CAGR 5Y
5-point trend, +40.5%
10.5%
—
EPS YoY
5-point trend, +61.6%
10.0%
—
Net Income YoY
5-point trend, +61.8%
9.9%
—

Per Share Metrics EPS, book value per share, cash flow per share, dividend per share

Metric
5Y trend
COST
Peer Median
EPS (Diluted)
5-point trend, +61.6%
$18.21
—

Capital Efficiency Asset turnover, inventory turnover, receivables turnover

Metric
5Y trend
COST
Peer Median
Payout Ratio
5-point trend, -76.5%
27.0%
—

Dividends Yield, payout ratio, dividend history, 5Y CAGR

Dividend Yield
0.52%
Payout Ratio
27.0%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-dateAmount
May 1, 2026$1.4700
Jan. 30, 2026$1.3000
Oct. 31, 2025$1.3000
Aug. 1, 2025$1.3000
May 2, 2025$1.3000
Feb. 7, 2025$1.1600
Nov. 1, 2024$1.1600
July 26, 2024$1.1600
April 25, 2024$1.1600
Feb. 1, 2024$1.0200
Dec. 27, 2023$15.0000
Nov. 2, 2023$1.0200
Aug. 24, 2023$1.0200
May 4, 2023$1.0200
Feb. 2, 2023$0.9000
Oct. 27, 2022$0.9000
July 28, 2022$0.9000
April 28, 2022$0.9000
Feb. 3, 2022$0.7900
Oct. 28, 2021$0.7900

COST Analyst Consensus Bullish and bearish analyst opinions, 12-month price target, upside

BUY 44 analysts
  • Strong Buy 13 29.5%
  • Buy 17 38.6%
  • Hold 13 29.5%
  • Sell 1 2.3%
  • Strong Sell 0 0.0%

12-Month Price Target

32 analysts · 2026-05-19
Median target $1100.00 +1.6%
Mean target $1072.91 -0.9%

Earnings History EPS actual vs estimate, surprise %, beat rate, next earnings date

Avg Surprise
-0.00%
Next Report
May 28, 2026
Period EPS Actual EPS Est Surprise
March 31, 2026 $4.58 $4.65 -0.07%
Dec. 31, 2025 $4.50 $4.36 0.14%
Sept. 30, 2025 $5.87 $5.92 -0.05%
June 30, 2025 $4.28 $4.32 -0.04%

Peer Comparison Key metrics vs sector peers

Ticker Market Cap P/E Rev YoY Net Margin ROE Gross Margin
COST $418.34B 51.8 8.2% 2.9% 29.6% —
WMT $940.18B 43.2 4.7% 3.1% 23.0% —
TGT $47.76B 13.0 -1.7% 3.5% 23.5% —
DG $31.59B 20.9 5.2% 3.5% 18.3% 30.7%
DLTR $23.21B 18.8 10.4% 6.6% 34.8% 36.3%
BJ $11.98B 21.1 4.7% 2.7% 26.9% —
PSMT $3.30B 22.3 7.2% 2.8% 12.2% —

Full Fundamentals All metrics by year — income statement, balance sheet, cash flow

Income Statement 14
Annual Income Statement data for COST
Metric Trend 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Revenue 12-point trend, +144.3% $275.24B $254.45B $242.29B $226.95B $195.93B $166.76B $152.70B $141.58B $129.03B $118.72B $116.20B $112.64B
Cost of Revenue 12-point trend, +143.6% $239.89B $222.36B $212.59B $199.38B $170.68B $144.94B $132.89B $123.15B $111.88B $102.90B $101.06B $98.46B
Gross Profit · · · · · · $16.46B · · · · ·
SG&A Expense 12-point trend, +129.1% $24.97B $22.81B $21.59B $19.78B $18.54B $16.39B $14.99B $13.88B $12.95B $12.07B $11.45B $10.90B
Operating Income 12-point trend, +222.5% $10.38B $9.29B $8.11B $7.79B $6.71B $5.43B $4.74B $4.48B $4.11B $3.67B $3.62B $3.22B
Interest Expense 12-point trend, +36.3% $154M $169M $160M $158M $171M $160M $150M $159M $134M $133M $124M $113M
Pretax Income 12-point trend, +238.4% $10.82B $9.74B $8.49B $7.84B $6.68B $5.37B $4.76B $4.44B $4.04B $3.62B $3.60B $3.20B
Income Tax 12-point trend, +145.2% $2.72B $2.37B $2.19B $1.93B $1.60B $1.31B $1.06B $1.26B $1.32B $1.24B $1.20B $1.11B
Net Income 12-point trend, +293.5% $8.10B $7.37B $6.29B $5.84B $5.01B $4.00B $3.66B $3.13B $2.68B $2.35B $2.38B $2.06B
EPS (Basic) 12-point trend, +288.9% $18.24 $16.59 $14.18 $13.17 $11.30 $9.05 $8.32 $7.15 $6.11 $5.36 $5.41 $4.69
EPS (Diluted) 12-point trend, +291.6% $18.21 $16.56 $14.16 $13.14 $11.27 $9.02 $8.26 $7.09 $6.08 $5.33 $5.37 $4.65
Shares (Basic) 12-point trend, +1.2% 443,985,000 443,914,000 443,854,000 443,651,000 443,089,000 442,297,000 439,755,000 438,515,000 438,437,000 438,585,000 439,455,000 438,693,000
Shares (Diluted) 12-point trend, +0.5% 444,803,000 444,759,000 444,452,000 444,757,000 444,346,000 443,901,000 442,923,000 441,834,000 440,937,000 441,263,000 442,716,000 442,485,000
EBITDA 11-point trend, +201.5% $12.81B $11.52B $10.19B $9.69B $8.49B $7.08B $6.23B $5.92B $5.48B · $4.75B $4.25B
Balance Sheet 27
Annual Balance Sheet data for COST
Metric Trend 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Cash & Equivalents 12-point trend, +146.8% $14.16B $9.91B $13.70B $10.20B $11.26B $12.28B $8.38B $6.05B $4.55B $3.38B $4.80B $5.74B
Short-term Investments 12-point trend, -28.8% $1.12B $1.24B $1.53B $846M $917M $1.03B $1.06B $1.20B $1.23B $1.35B $1.62B $1.58B
Receivables 12-point trend, +179.0% $3.20B $2.72B $2.29B $2.24B $1.80B $1.55B $1.53B $1.67B $1.43B $1.25B $1.22B $1.15B
Inventory 12-point trend, +114.2% $18.12B $18.65B $16.65B $17.91B $14.21B $12.24B $11.39B $11.04B $9.83B $8.97B $8.91B $8.46B
Other Current Assets 11-point trend, +679.4% $1.78B $1.73B $1.71B $1.50B $1.31B $1.02B $1.11B $321M $272M $268M $228M ·
Current Assets 12-point trend, +118.2% $38.38B $34.25B $35.88B $32.70B $29.50B $28.12B $23.48B $20.29B $17.32B $15.22B $16.78B $17.59B
PP&E (Net) 12-point trend, +115.2% $31.91B $29.03B $26.68B $24.65B $23.49B $21.81B $20.89B $19.68B $18.16B $17.04B $15.40B $14.83B
PP&E (Gross) 12-point trend, +124.2% $50.84B $46.95B $43.37B $39.93B $37.66B $34.70B $32.63B $30.71B $28.34B $26.17B $23.66B $22.68B
Accum. Depreciation 12-point trend, +141.3% $18.93B $17.92B $16.68B $15.29B $14.17B $12.90B $11.74B $11.03B $10.18B $9.12B $8.26B $7.84B
Goodwill 6-point trend, +1775.5% · $994M $994M $993M $996M $988M $53M · · · · ·
Other Non-current Assets 12-point trend, +574.1% $4.08B $3.94B $3.72B $4.05B $3.38B $2.84B $1.02B $860M $869M $902M $837M $606M
Total Assets 12-point trend, +136.1% $77.10B $69.83B $68.99B $64.17B $59.27B $55.56B $45.40B $40.83B $36.35B $33.16B $33.02B $32.66B
Accounts Payable 12-point trend, +133.0% $19.78B $19.42B $17.48B $17.85B $16.28B $14.17B $11.68B $11.24B $9.61B $7.61B $9.01B $8.49B
Accrued Liabilities 6-point trend, +92.2% $2.68B $2.44B $2.15B $1.91B $1.67B $1.39B · · · · · ·
Current Liabilities 12-point trend, +157.5% $37.11B $35.46B $33.58B $32.00B $29.44B $24.84B $23.24B $19.93B $17.50B $15.57B $16.54B $14.41B
Capital Leases 12-point trend, +1222.6% $2.46B $2.38B $2.43B $2.48B $2.64B $2.56B $0 $390M $373M $364M $286M $186M
Deferred Tax 8-point trend, -275.8% · · · · $-754M $-665M $145M $1M $58M $297M $51M $429M
Other Non-current Liabilities 11-point trend, +239.0% $2.65B $2.58B $2.55B $2.56B $2.42B $1.94B $1.46B $1.31B $1.20B $1.20B $783M ·
Total Liabilities 12-point trend, +133.7% $47.94B $46.21B $43.94B $43.52B $41.19B $36.85B $29.82B $27.73B $25.27B $20.83B $22.17B $20.51B
Long-term Debt 12-point trend, +13.6% $5.79B $5.90B $6.46B $6.56B $7.53B $7.66B $6.85B $6.61B $6.66B $5.16B $6.13B $5.09B
Total Debt 10-point trend, +13.6% $5.79B $5.90B $6.46B $6.56B $7.49B $7.61B · $6.58B $6.66B · $6.15B $5.09B
Common Stock 12-point trend, +0.0% $2M $2M $2M $2M $4M $4M $4M $4M $4M $2M $2M $2M
Retained Earnings 12-point trend, +203.7% $22.65B $17.62B $19.52B $15.59B $11.67B $12.88B $10.26B $7.89B $5.99B $7.69B $6.52B $7.46B
AOCI 12-point trend, -2228.9% $-1.77B $-1.83B $-1.80B $-1.83B $-1.14B $-1.30B $-1.44B $-1.20B $-1.01B $-1.10B $-1.12B $-76M
Stockholders' Equity 12-point trend, +137.0% $29.16B $23.62B $25.06B $20.64B $17.56B $18.28B $15.24B $12.80B $10.78B $12.08B $10.62B $12.30B
Liabilities + Equity 12-point trend, +133.5% $77.10B $69.83B $68.99B $64.17B $59.27B $55.56B $45.40B $40.83B $36.35B $33.16B $33.02B $33.02B
Shares Outstanding 12-point trend, +1.3% 443,237,000 443,126,000 442,793,000 442,664,000 441,825,000 441,255,000 439,625,000 438,189,000 437,204,000 437,524,000 437,952,000 437,683,000
Cash Flow 15
Annual Cash Flow data for COST
Metric Trend 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
D&A 12-point trend, +135.8% $2.43B $2.24B $2.08B $1.90B $1.78B $1.65B $1.49B $1.44B $1.37B $1.25B $1.13B $1.03B
Stock-based Comp 12-point trend, +163.0% $860M $818M $774M $724M $665M $619M $595M $544M $514M $459M $394M $327M
Other Non-cash 11-point trend, +242.1% $1.95B $917M $1.93B $-1.08B $1.50B $2.60B $610M $659M $2.16B · $387M $570M
Operating Cash Flow 12-point trend, +234.7% $13.34B $11.34B $11.07B $7.39B $8.96B $8.86B $6.36B $5.77B $6.73B $3.29B $4.29B $3.98B
CapEx 12-point trend, +175.9% $5.50B $4.71B $4.32B $3.89B $3.59B $2.81B $3.00B $2.97B $2.50B $2.65B $2.39B $1.99B
Investing Cash Flow 10-point trend, -153.8% $-5.31B $-4.41B $-4.97B $-3.92B $-3.54B $-3.89B $-2.87B $-2.95B $-2.37B · · $-2.09B
Debt Issued 12-point trend, -100.0% $0 $498M $0 $0 $0 $3.99B $298M $0 $3.78B $185M $1.12B $117M
Net Debt Issued 11-point trend, -188.0% $-103M $-579M $-75M $-800M $-94M $792M $209M $-86M $1.58B · $1.12B $117M
Stock Repurchased 12-point trend, +170.4% $903M $700M $676M $439M $496M $196M $247M $328M $469M $486M $481M $334M
Net Stock Activity 11-point trend, -170.4% $-903M $-700M $-676M $-439M $-496M $-196M $-247M $-328M $-469M · $-481M $-334M
Dividends Paid 12-point trend, +273.8% $2.18B $9.04B $1.25B $1.50B $5.75B $1.48B $1.04B $689M $3.90B $746M $2.87B $584M
Financing Cash Flow 10-point trend, -380.3% $-3.77B $-10.76B $-2.61B $-4.28B $-6.49B $-1.15B $-1.15B $-1.28B $-3.22B · · $-786M
Net Change in Cash 12-point trend, +288.9% $4.25B $-3.79B $3.50B $-1.05B $-1.02B $3.89B $2.33B $1.51B $1.17B $-1.42B $-937M $1.09B
Free Cash Flow 11-point trend, +293.6% $7.84B $6.63B $6.75B $3.50B $5.37B $6.05B $3.36B $2.81B $4.22B · $1.89B $1.99B
Levered FCF 11-point trend, +302.8% $7.72B $6.50B $6.63B $3.38B $5.24B $5.93B $3.24B $2.69B $4.13B · $1.81B $1.92B
Profitability 8
Annual Profitability data for COST
Metric Trend 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Gross Margin · · · · · · 10.8% · · · · ·
Operating Margin 11-point trend, +31.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% · 3.1% 2.9%
Net Margin 11-point trend, +60.7% 2.9% 2.9% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% · 2.1% 1.8%
Pretax Margin 11-point trend, +38.4% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% · 3.1% 2.8%
EBITDA Margin 11-point trend, +23.3% 4.7% 4.5% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% · 4.1% 3.8%
ROA 10-point trend, +76.0% 11.0% 10.6% 9.4% 9.5% 8.7% 7.9% · 7.8% 7.4% · 7.1% 6.3%
ROE 10-point trend, +66.3% 29.6% 32.5% 27.5% 30.6% 27.9% 23.9% · 26.6% 23.4% · 20.7% 17.8%
ROIC 10-point trend, +84.0% 22.2% 23.8% 19.1% 21.6% 20.4% 15.9% · 16.6% 15.8% · 14.4% 12.1%
Liquidity & Solvency 5
Annual Liquidity & Solvency data for COST
Metric Trend 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Current Ratio 10-point trend, -15.2% 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 · 1.0 1.0 · 1.0 1.2
Quick Ratio 10-point trend, -15.2% 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 · 0.4 0.4 · 0.5 0.6
Debt / Equity 10-point trend, -52.1% 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 · 0.5 0.6 · 0.6 0.4
LT Debt / Equity 10-point trend, -52.7% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 · 0.5 0.6 · 0.5 0.4
Interest Coverage 11-point trend, +136.6% 67.4 54.9 50.7 49.3 39.2 34.0 31.6 28.2 30.7 · 29.2 28.5
Efficiency 3
Annual Efficiency data for COST
Metric Trend 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Asset Turnover 10-point trend, +9.3% 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.4 3.3 · 3.5 3.6 · 3.5 3.4
Inventory Turnover 10-point trend, +8.4% 13.1 12.6 12.3 12.4 12.9 12.3 · 11.8 11.9 · 11.6 12.0
Receivables Turnover 10-point trend, -3.1% 92.9 101.7 107.1 112.2 116.9 108.1 · 91.3 96.1 · 98.0 95.9
Per Share 6
Annual Per Share data for COST
Metric Trend 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Book Value / Share 10-point trend, +134.1% $65.80 $53.31 $56.59 $46.63 $39.75 $41.44 · $29.21 $24.65 · $24.24 $28.11
Revenue / Share 11-point trend, +143.1% $618.78 $572.11 $545.14 $510.29 $440.94 $375.67 $344.76 $320.43 $292.62 · $262.47 $254.56
Cash Flow / Share 11-point trend, +233.0% $29.98 $25.49 $24.90 $16.62 $20.16 $19.96 $14.35 $13.07 $15.25 · $9.68 $9.00
Cash / Share 10-point trend, +143.7% $31.95 $22.35 $30.94 $23.05 $25.48 $27.82 · $13.82 $10.40 · $10.96 $13.11
Dividend / Share 9-point trend, +269.9% $5 $19 $4 · · · $2 $2 $9 $2 $7 $1
EPS (TTM) 12-point trend, +291.6% $18.21 $16.56 $14.16 $13.14 $11.27 $9.02 $8.26 $7.09 $6.08 $5.33 $5.37 $4.65
Growth Rates 10
Annual Growth Rates data for COST
Metric Trend 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Revenue YoY 5-point trend, -53.3% 8.2% 5.0% 6.8% 15.8% 17.5% · · · · · · ·
Revenue CAGR 3Y 3-point trend, -49.9% 6.6% 9.1% 13.3% · · · · · · · · ·
Revenue CAGR 5Y 10.5% · · · · · · · · · · ·
EPS YoY 5-point trend, -60.1% 10.0% 17.0% 7.8% 16.6% 24.9% · · · · · · ·
EPS CAGR 3Y 3-point trend, -29.2% 11.5% 13.7% 16.2% · · · · · · · · ·
EPS CAGR 5Y 15.1% · · · · · · · · · · ·
Net Income YoY 5-point trend, -60.4% 9.9% 17.1% 7.7% 16.7% 25.1% · · · · · · ·
Net Income CAGR 3Y 3-point trend, -29.4% 11.5% 13.7% 16.3% · · · · · · · · ·
Net Income CAGR 5Y 15.1% · · · · · · · · · · ·
Dividend CAGR 5Y 8.1% · · · · · · · · · · ·
Valuation (TTM) 17
Annual Valuation (TTM) data for COST
Metric Trend 202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
Revenue TTM 12-point trend, +144.3% $275.24B $254.45B $242.29B $226.95B $195.93B $166.76B $152.70B $141.58B $129.03B $118.72B $116.20B $112.64B
Net Income TTM 12-point trend, +293.5% $8.10B $7.37B $6.29B $5.84B $5.01B $4.00B $3.66B $3.13B $2.68B $2.35B $2.38B $2.06B
Market Cap 10-point trend, +689.4% $418.34B $395.44B $240.99B $235.42B $198.97B $153.72B · $102.16B $69.18B · $61.29B $52.99B
Enterprise Value 10-point trend, +705.3% $408.85B $390.19B $232.21B $230.93B $194.29B $148.02B · $101.47B $70.06B · $61.02B $50.77B
P/E 12-point trend, +99.1% 51.8 53.9 38.4 40.5 40.0 38.6 35.7 32.9 26.0 30.8 26.1 26.0
P/S 10-point trend, +223.1% 1.5 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 · 0.7 0.5 · 0.5 0.5
P/B 10-point trend, +233.0% 14.3 16.7 9.6 11.4 11.3 8.4 · 8.0 6.4 · 5.8 4.3
P / Tangible Book 6-point trend, +61.4% 14.3 17.5 10.0 12.0 12.0 8.9 · · · · · ·
P / Cash Flow 10-point trend, +135.8% 31.4 34.9 21.8 31.8 22.2 17.3 · 17.7 10.3 · 14.3 13.3
P / FCF 10-point trend, +100.6% 53.4 59.7 35.7 67.2 37.1 25.4 · 36.4 16.4 · 32.4 26.6
EV / EBITDA 10-point trend, +167.1% 31.9 33.9 22.8 23.8 22.9 20.9 · 17.1 12.8 · 12.8 11.9
EV / FCF 10-point trend, +104.6% 52.2 58.9 34.4 66.0 36.2 24.5 · 36.2 16.6 · 32.3 25.5
EV / Revenue 10-point trend, +229.5% 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 · 0.7 0.5 · 0.5 0.5
Dividend Yield 10-point trend, -52.7% 0.52% 2.3% 0.52% 0.64% 2.9% 0.96% · 0.67% 5.6% · 4.7% 1.1%
Earnings Yield 12-point trend, -49.7% 1.9% 1.9% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.8% 3.0% 3.8% 3.2% 3.8% 3.8%
Payout Ratio 11-point trend, -5.0% 27.0% 122.7% 19.9% 25.6% 114.8% 37.0% 28.4% 22.0% 145.7% · 120.5% 28.4%
Annual Payout 12-point trend, +273.8% $2.18B $9.04B $1.25B $1.50B $5.75B $1.48B $1.04B $689M $3.90B $746M $2.87B $584M

Financial Statements Income statement, balance sheet, cash flow — annual, last 5 years

Income Statement
2025-08-312024-09-012023-09-032022-08-282021-08-29
Revenue $275.24B$254.45B$242.29B$226.95B$195.93B
Operating Margin % 3.8%3.6%3.4%3.4%3.4%
Net Income $8.10B$7.37B$6.29B$5.84B$5.01B
Diluted EPS $18.21$16.56$14.16$13.14$11.27
Balance Sheet
2025-08-312024-09-012023-09-032022-08-282021-08-29
Debt / Equity 0.20.20.30.30.4
Current Ratio 1.01.01.11.01.0
Quick Ratio 0.50.40.50.40.5
Cash Flow
2025-08-312024-09-012023-09-032022-08-282021-08-29
Free Cash Flow $7.84B$6.63B$6.75B$3.50B$5.37B

COST AI Analyst Panel — Bullish and Bearish Views 2026Q2 debate: Claude, Grok, Gemini, ChatGPT on the stock's prospects

Round 1 — Opening Takes

Grok NEUTRAL 0.85
↑ Bullish

I see Costco's membership-driven machine as a recession-proof cash cow that thrives on volume and loyalty. Its 29.6% ROE shows the model squeezes outsized returns from equity without heavy debt reliance. EPS climbed to $18.67, proving earnings power keeps building despite retail headwinds. Recent news on gas sales boosting March comps by over 9% underscores how ancillary perks like cheap fuel lock in 147 million members even tighter.

↓ Bearish

My read is Costco's sky-high valuation demands flawless execution, but slowing momentum risks a sharp correction. A 46 P/E towers over peers like TGT at 15, pricing in endless perfection the business can't sustain with just 3% net margins. Market cap dropped to $383B from $440B peaks, mirroring price slides from $1067 to $970. Thin 1.04 current ratio signals liquidity strains if sales falter.

Claude NEUTRAL 0.68
↑ Bullish

Costco's membership model is a pricing power moat that most retailers cannot replicate. The company just raised fees for the first time in seven years, and renewal rates stayed strong — that tells me members see real value, not just a commodity warehouse. EPS is up to $18.67 despite flat margins, which means volume and membership economics are working. At a 29.6% ROE, Costco converts shareholder capital into profit at a rate well above retail peers like Walmart at 23.7%. The stock has pulled back from $1,067 in early June to $970 now, trimming the P/E from 56 to 46 — still premium, but the valuation reset matters if membership growth and gas station traffic continue.

↓ Bearish

I see a company priced for perfection in a mature market where growth is slowing. The P/E of 46 is still nearly double Target's 15 and Dollar General's 17, even after the recent decline. Gross margin sits flat at 12.88%, and net margin at 2.96% — these are razor-thin for a business that depends on volume and scale. Market cap has fallen $57 billion in one quarter, from $440 billion to $383 billion, signaling that investors are already repricing risk. Debt-to-equity at 18.93 is elevated, meaning the balance sheet is levered to support buybacks and dividends rather than organic reinvestment. If comparable sales growth slows below 9% or membership renewal rates weaken, the multiple has nowhere to hide.

Gemini NEUTRAL 0.75
↑ Bullish

Costco’s membership model creates a recurring revenue stream that is virtually immune to economic cycles. The company boasts a 29.6% ROE, which demonstrates how effectively management uses shareholder capital to generate consistent, high-margin profits. This efficiency is supported by a massive base of 147 million cardholders who view their membership as an essential household utility. Even with a premium valuation, the ability to drive steady growth through membership renewals rather than just volatile retail margins provides a unique defensive moat that few other retailers can replicate in today’s uncertain macro environment.

↓ Bearish

Costco is currently priced for perfection, and the stock’s valuation leaves absolutely no room for error. The P/E ratio sits at 46.1, which signifies that investors are paying a massive premium for earnings growth that may struggle to outpace the current market excitement. This multiple is significantly higher than peers like Target or BJ’s, which trade at much lower earnings multiples. If consumer spending softens or if the company fails to sustain its aggressive pace of membership growth, the stock could face a significant valuation compression as the market re-evaluates its growth expectations.

Chatgpt NEUTRAL 0.62
↑ Bullish

I think COST's strongest bullish case is its durable, membership-driven earnings engine that should power the stock higher if trends stay intact. EPS TTM is 18.6687 per share. That level of earnings per share supports steady cash flow and room for ongoing buybacks and modest capex, underpinning a higher multiple. ROE TTM is 29.61%. That high return on equity signals Costco is turning every dollar of equity into substantial profit, a key moat in a high-volume retail model. March comparable sales were up about 9%. That indicates pricing power and member spend resilience even as gas prices fluctuate, helping earnings visibility into 2026.

↓ Bearish

I think COST faces a meaningful bear case from overvaluation that could unwind if growth slows. P/E TTM is 46.1053. That is a rich multiple versus peers, meaning any hiccup in earnings could trigger multiple compression. P/B annual is 14.3444. A high book multiple leaves little cushion if margins contract or if buybacks slow. Market cap declined to 382,766 from 408,624 last quarter. That drop signals investor sentiment deterioration and potential downside risk to the valuation.

Round 2 — Responses & Rebuttals

Grok

Gemini, your point that Costco's 29.6% ROE generates 'high-margin profits' misses how the model actually works. That ROE comes from blistering asset turnover in a low-margin world, not fat profits — net margins are just 2.96%, meaning every penny of earnings depends on massive volume from 147 million members. If comp sales dip below 9%, that efficiency crumbles fast, amplifying downside risk beyond what peers face.

Claude

I need to push back on Grok's liquidity concern. Grok flags the 1.04 current ratio as a 'strains' signal, but that misreads Costco's cash conversion cycle. A current ratio just above 1.0 is normal for a high-velocity retailer that collects cash from members upfront and pays suppliers on terms — it's not a red flag, it's the business model working. Costco's $18.67 EPS and flat 2.96% net margin show the company is converting that working capital efficiency into earnings, not burning cash. If liquidity were truly strained, we'd see debt-to-equity climbing, not falling from 21.08 to 18.93 over two quarters. That D/E decline tells me management is actually deleveraging, not the opposite.

Gemini

Claude, your point about the debt-to-equity ratio at 18.93 misses the reality of Costco’s capital structure. That figure represents a massive, highly efficient leverage of shareholder equity to drive growth, not a sign of balance sheet distress. A debt-to-equity ratio of 18.93 indicates that the company is effectively using borrowed capital to fund expansion and buybacks rather than relying solely on retained earnings. While you see it as elevated, I view it as a deliberate, calculated use of the balance sheet to maximize returns for shareholders in a capital-intensive retail environment.

Chatgpt

Grok, I think COST's valuation is steep, but its membership moat justifies some premium. P/E 46.1. That premium reflects durable, membership-driven cash flow that can power earnings even as margins stay slim. Looking into 2026Q2, the stock's direction will hinge on demand visibility and member renewal resilience; if those stay solid, the earnings trajectory can support a higher multiple, even in a volatile macro backdrop.

Round 3 — Final Rebuttals

G
Grok

I have to side with Claude on the leverage debate—it's improving, not just efficient. The debt-to-equity ratio has declined from 21.08 in 2025Q3 to 18.93 now. This trend reduces Costco's exposure to interest rate fluctuations, which is crucial for maintaining thin margins through 2026Q2. Gemini, your view on 'massive leverage' as purely positive overlooks how the drop strengthens the balance sheet against consumer slowdowns. This de-risking keeps my hold verdict intact.

C
Claude

I want to push back on Gemini's framing of that 18.93 debt-to-equity ratio. Gemini calls it 'deliberate, calculated use of the balance sheet to maximize returns,' but that's not quite right for Costco's situation. A D/E of 18.93 means Costco is carrying $18.93 in debt for every dollar of equity — that's structurally extreme, even for retail. The reason it works is because Costco's membership model generates such reliable upfront cash that the company can service that debt easily. But here's what worries me: if comparable sales growth actually does slip below 9%, as Grok flagged, that cash conversion cycle tightens fast, and suddenly that leverage becomes a liability, not an asset. Gemini is right that it's intentional, but I'd argue it's also fragile. The stock's 30% pullback from $1,067 to $970 suggests the market is already pricing in that risk.

G
Gemini ⇄ Mind changed

Grok, I’m revising my take on the risk profile here—you are right that the 2.96% net margin leaves zero margin for error. While I previously emphasized the ROE, I now see that the market is ignoring a massive macro risk: the impact of a potential shift in the interest rate cycle on consumer credit. Costco’s 147 million members are increasingly using co-branded credit cards to manage household budgets as inflation persists. If rates stay higher for longer, the cost of servicing that consumer debt will dampen the discretionary spending that drives those critical 9% comparable sales growth figures. We are betting on a consumer who might be running out of runway.

C
Chatgpt

I think we should widen the frame to macro and regulatory dynamics that could move COST in 2026Q2. Claude, Grok, Gemini, the valuation isn't just about margins; it's about what policymakers could do to big-box and loyalty models. P/E around 46 signals a steep price for any growth hiccup. If demand cools or if antitrust scrutiny tightens loyalty practices, multiples can compress quickly. COST trades near a $383B market cap. That market cap size means a few percent earnings miss could lead to a meaningful price markdown. Watch regulatory chatter and consumer-spending momentum as pace-setters beyond the quarterly numbers.

Price Forecasts

Model 3M Target 6M Target Reasoning
G Grok 3M Target $1010.00 6M Target $1060.00 Reasoning I think Costco's de-risking balance sheet and sticky membership model set up a rebound to recent highs through 2026Q2. The key catalyst is the 2026Q2 earnings release in late October, where sustained 9% comp sales guidance from gas perks and fee hikes could reignite multiple expansion. Risk: If August monthly comps print below 8%, thin 2.96% net margins expose the 46 P/E to sharp compression, as that multiple demands endless volume from 147 million members without hiccups. Improving D/E to 18.93 bolsters resilience here.
C Claude 3M Target $985.00 6M Target $1015.00 Reasoning Costco's membership moat and 29.6% ROE justify a premium, but the 46 P/E already prices in flawless execution in a 2.96% net margin business. My thesis: the stock trades fairly here, not cheap—any upside requires membership renewal strength to persist and comparable sales to stay above 8%. The concrete catalyst is 2026Q2 earnings in late August; if comps exceed 8% and renewal rates hold post-fee hike, the market re-rates the multiple upward. The concrete risk is consumer spending rolling over—if comps slip below 7%, that leverage becomes dangerous fast. At 46 times earnings, Costco is paying roughly five years of current profit just to own the next year's earnings, leaving little room for disappointment. I'm holding my hold; modest upside to $1,015 over six months assumes steady-state execution, not acceleration.
G Gemini 3M Target $995.00 6M Target $1050.00 Reasoning My thesis is that Costco will trade in a tight range until the market gains confidence that its membership-driven model can sustain growth despite a cooling consumer. The primary catalyst for a move toward my 1050 target is the next earnings release, where I expect to see membership renewal rates holding firm above 90% despite the recent fee hike. Conversely, a sharp decline in comparable sales growth below 7% would break my thesis by signaling that even loyal members are finally cutting back. At a 46.1 P/E, investors are paying a premium for earnings consistency; this multiple implies that the market expects years of uninterrupted growth, leaving no room for even a minor quarterly miss.
C Chatgpt 3M Target $1005.00 6M Target $1050.00 Reasoning My thesis is that COST should drift mildly higher into 2026Q2, underpinned by the membership moat, but the stock’s premium multiple keeps downside risk if growth slows. The key catalyst would be a Q2 2026 earnings print that confirms robust membership renewals and steady comp growth, potentially unlocking multiple expansion. The risk is a disappointing quarter or guidance that triggers multiple compression given the current valuation. The stock trades at a very high P/E. That means the market is pricing in strong, uninterrupted growth, so any hiccup could lead to meaningful multiple compression. From here, COST trades near 977 today; I see about 1005 in 3 months and about 1050 in 6 months.

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