Civilizational decline and internal threats

Civilizational decline and internal threats are driving global instability, according to recent analyses. Madge Waggy identifies three sudden societal collapse scenarios, while Charles Hugh Smith highlights five dynamics leading to systemic crisis. Historians Strauss and Howe's "Fourth Turning" theory suggests a cyclical breakdown of the old order, with Chris MacIntosh warning that it's currently underway. Meanwhile, Milan Adams and J.B. Shurk blame Western nations' internal issues, such as open borders and a culture of grievance, for their decline. Pete Hegseth, U.S. Secretary of War, warns Europe about dangerous ideologies fueled by immigration crises.

This narrative impacts sectors like defense, immigration services, and cultural institutions. Governments may increase spending on security and border control, benefiting defense contractors. However, it could also lead to social unrest, affecting consumer confidence and retail sales. The narrative might also drive shifts in investment preferences, with investors favoring defensive sectors and avoiding those exposed to internal conflicts.

Next, watch for the U.S. midterm elections in November 2022, which could indicate voter sentiment on immigration and cultural issues. Also, monitor Europe's response to its immigration crisis, particularly any policy changes or border control measures, which could impact immigration services companies. Lastly, keep an eye on economic data releases, as social unrest and policy changes could affect consumer spending and GDP growth.