Q3 market performance outlook

What happened: The third quarter began with a mixed performance on Wall Street, as stocks kicked off July after posting modest gains in the first half of 2026. Futures pointed to a softer start, with S&P futures down 0.3% as of 8:20am ET, driven by anticipation of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first major overseas appearance and fresh economic data.

Market impact: Energy stocks, which had been performing well due to high oil prices, may face headwinds as investors reassess their positions ahead of potential changes in monetary policy. Tech stocks, which had been underperforming, could see renewed interest as the quarter progresses, given their historical strength in the third quarter.

What to watch next: The market's focus will shift to the upcoming non-farm payroll report on July 8, which could influence the Fed's policy decisions. Additionally, investors will closely monitor the first major overseas appearance by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on July 11 at the Sintra Forum. Lastly, the market will keenly await the start of the Q2 earnings season, with notable reports from companies like JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo scheduled for mid-July.