K-shaped economy impact on retail CRE

What happened: New research confirms the deepening divide in the U.S. economy, dubbed the 'K-shaped recovery.' Higher-income households are prospering, while lower-income households struggle. Meanwhile, office-to-apartment conversions hit a record high in 2021, with 15,000 units converted, a 16% increase from 2020.

Market impact: The K-shaped economy is driving a wedge in retail commercial real estate (CRE). While office conversions boost residential supply, retail CRE transactions for shops and malls plunged in February. Goldman Sachs expects a revision higher, but the trend reflects diverging consumer spending power.

What to watch next: Investors should monitor Q1 2022 retail sales data (May 17) for signs of sustained spending disparities. Additionally, keep an eye on office-to-residential conversion trends, as another record year could further impact retail CRE demand dynamics. Lastly, watch for revisions to February's weak retail CRE transaction data, which may provide a clearer picture of the sector's health.