US border businesses struggle due to Trump policies

What happened: US border businesses, particularly in cities, are experiencing a significant downturn due to a decrease in Canadian visitors. A 42% drop in Canadian visitors to major US metropolitan areas was observed between 2016 and 2020, with the trend accelerating during the Trump administration. This decline is attributed to anti-Trump sentiment among Canadians, who express anger and frustration over his policies. In Lewiston, New York, bakery owner Aimee Loughran reports a decrease in Canadian customers, while in Cuba, farmers like Abraham Rodríguez face economic hardships due to Trump's pressure campaign.

Market impact: The travel and tourism sector, especially businesses located near the US-Canada border and in major cities, are negatively impacted. This includes retail, hospitality, and food services. The decline in Canadian visitors affects not only these businesses but also their supply chains and local economies. The drop in demand has not been fully captured by official border-crossing data, suggesting a more pronounced impact than initially thought.

What to watch next: The upcoming US presidential election in November 2020 will be a key catalyst, as a change in administration could potentially reverse the trend. Additionally, the release of Q2 2020 earnings reports from major travel and tourism companies operating near the US-Canada border will provide insight into the financial impact of the decline in Canadian visitors. Lastly, changes in US immigration policies and travel restrictions, particularly those affecting Canada, will continue to shape this narrative.