US geopolitical tensions: Trump's Iran policy

What happened: Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain high, with Israel eager to resume military action against Iran, awaiting a green light from the U.S. President Trump has expressed optimism about reaching a "great deal" with Iran, extending a ceasefire, and even claiming "good news" from negotiations. However, Iran's media reports a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting ongoing hostilities. U.S. stocks have shown volatility, potentially reacting to Trump's rhetoric.

Market impact: The energy sector, particularly oil and gas companies, has been significantly affected. Crude oil prices have surged due to geopolitical risks, with any escalation or de-escalation in tensions driving price fluctuations. U.S. stocks have experienced intraday volatility, with investors positioning for either a swift deal or a significant escalation.

What to watch next: On April 22, the ceasefire extension expires, which could trigger a renewal of hostilities if no deal is reached. Additionally, investors will closely monitor U.S.-Iran negotiations over the weekend, as any progress or setbacks could significantly impact oil prices and broader market sentiment.