US-Iran ceasefire tensions

What happened: Tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated on June 15, 2026, with the U.S. military intercepting Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. Silver prices surged 1.4% to $68.90 per ounce the following day, while oil prices rose in Asia. Iran declared the strait fully open to commercial traffic, but the U.S.-Iran ceasefire remains fragile, with Iran reviewing a new U.S. peace proposal.

Market impact: The energy sector was significantly affected, with crude prices tumbling due to the prolonged shipping disruptions. The UAE is racing to reduce its dependence on Hormuz, rewiring energy flows to bypass the chokepoint chaos. Silver prices moved up due to the geopolitical risk, benefiting precious metal investors.

What to watch next: The formal signing of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (expected within days) will be crucial. Additionally, the outcome of the U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks, backed by Qatar and Pakistan, will determine the future of the ceasefire. Lastly, the normalization of ship traffic through the Hormuz chokepoint will be a key indicator of the easing or escalation of tensions.