Iran war: lost oil supply

What happened: The ongoing conflict with Iran has led to a significant loss of global oil supply. As of seven weeks in, the world has lost 500 million barrels, valued at $50 billion at an average price of $100 per barrel. A major oil executive warns that restarting shut-in wells and rebuilding inventory could take months, potentially keeping oil prices high until 2027.

Market impact: Oil industry profits are expected to remain robust due to sustained high oil prices. Ten oil stocks are identified as potential beneficiaries. However, the global economy continues to lose record volumes of oil supply, which could lead to price spikes as the current supply-demand balance appears unsustainable.

What to watch next: Upcoming oil inventory reports and any developments in the Iran war will be crucial. Additionally, watch for any changes in OPEC+ production policies, as they could significantly impact oil prices.