Iran war: lost oil supply

What happened: The Iran war has led to significant disruptions in global oil supply. Since the conflict began, the world has lost nearly 900 million barrels of oil, with Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz being a key factor. This shortage, estimated to be around 1 billion barrels by Shell's CEO, is expected to deepen as the conflict continues. Oil executives from companies like Exxon Mobil and Shell have warned that it could take months to restart shut-in oil wells and rebuild inventory levels.

Market impact: The oil industry is significantly affected, with oil prices remaining high due to the supply shortage. This boosts profits for oil companies, benefiting oil stocks. However, the global economy also faces challenges, with stagflation and an AI bubble bust warned about by some analysts due to the Persian Gulf supply shock combined with potential Fed policies.

What to watch next: Investors should closely monitor the progress of the Iran war and any potential ceasefire or resolution. Upcoming earnings calls from major oil companies, such as Exxon Mobil's Q1 2023 results on April 28, will provide insights into how these companies are navigating the current environment. Additionally, any changes in U.S. or global policy towards Iran could significantly impact the oil market.