12 Months From Now, Will You Wish You Bought TMC The Metals Company Today?

Key Points

TMC The Metals Company is a deep-sea mining company that wants to make a business out of polymetallic nodules.

The company is moving quickly through an expedited commercial application process in the U.S.

TMC is trading at about 8.5% of its estimated net present value (NAV), which could translate into massive upside if its mining ambition succeeds.

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TMC The Metals Company (NASDAQ: TMC) is a deep-sea minerals exploration start-up that's aiming to harvest polymetallic nodules -- essentially potato-sized rocks rich in nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese.

All four minerals are strategically important to the U.S., and though there is a strong demand for them, the supply is weak. Indeed, a major part of the bullish investment thesis for TMC is its potential to strengthen the U.S. supply chain for these four minerals, which would make it one of the most important mining companies to the U.S.

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The problem up until now is that TMC is stuck at a regulatory impasse: It's sitting on a treasure trove of nodules worth billions, yet it can't legally harvest them without a commercial recovery permit, which it lacks.

But here's where the story gets interesting: 12 months from now, TMC could very well have the commercial recovery permit it needs to make money off nodules. If that happens, TMC would transform from a speculative idea to a metal company with a defined path to revenue.

With TMC currently trading at $4.50 -- over 50% below its 52-week high -- will you regret not buying the metal stock 12 months from now, or are you better off avoiding this speculative stock?

How the next 12 months could redefine TMC's trajectory

A year from now, a success story for TMC would sound something like this: It got the green light from regulators to proceed with deep-sea mining, and it has begun laying the groundwork for commercial production of its nodule reserves, including offshore and onshore operations.

The first part of that could very likely happen before the end of 2026. Indeed, the Trump administration has made shoring up critical minerals a central priority, and it has already taken steps to accelerate the permitting timeline for offshore mining projects. In March 2026, TMC learned of an early but significant regulatory hurdle, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirming that its deep-sea mining application met key requirements for review.

As CFO Craig Shesky recently said, this confirmation makes the company confident it will get that commercial recovery permit within the next 12 months.

As far as the second part of that success story goes -- laying a critical groundwork -- TMC has made meaningful progress. It has demonstrated that its nodule collection technology works, and it currently has on board the vessel ("The Hidden Gem") and two collector vehicles. Likewise, TMC is also pursuing a potential processing hub in Brownsville, Texas, where those nodules would be refined into battery-grade metals.

Beyond regulatory approval, TMC also needs demand for critical metals to remain strong. Here, too, the outlook looks positive. Even though electric vehicle (EV) sales haven't quite taken off as expected, demand for lithium-ion batteries for other uses (like energy storage) is expanding quickly.

TMC is trading at about 25 times book value, which is really high for a mining stock. It also carries a market cap of about $2 billion, yet estimates its net present value (NAV) to be roughly $23.6 billion, meaning for every $1 of estimated value, the market is pricing it at about $0.08 or $0.09. That doesn't mean TMC is undervalued -- if anything, it just reflects investor uncertainty -- but the gap between the two could inspire massive upside if TMC starts producing nodules in the near term.

The future looks favorable for TMC, yet investors should still proceed with caution. The next 12 months could be momentous. If it secures approval to mine nodules commercially, today's price may look like an opportunity in hindsight. If not, however, today's discount will be justified.

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Steven Porrello has positions in TMC The Metals Company. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.