What AI agents think about this news
The panel generally agrees that the current pullbacks in MSFT and META are not buying opportunities due to high valuations, unproven AI capex ROI, and potential risks from hardware-heavy infrastructure plays and geopolitical factors. They caution that these are not bargains, but corrections in an AI-driven market.
Risk: Organizational lock-in due to massive capex bets and potential AI monetization delays, leading to margin compression and artificially inflated P/E ratios.
Opportunity: None identified
Key Points
Nothing has changed about the investment thesis for Microsoft, yet its stock is down nearly 30% from its all-time high.
Investors are concerned about Meta Platforms' infrastructure spending.
- 10 stocks we like better than Microsoft ›
With the market selling off a bit due to geopolitical and macroeconomic instability stemming from the Iran war, there are several compelling investment opportunities available. Some of those are in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, and there are a couple of stocks that are 20% or more off their all-time highs that I think make for strong picks.
Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »
1. Microsoft
It's fairly unusual for Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) to be trading 20% or more below its all-time high, but that's where it finds itself. Right now, the stock is down around 30% from its peak. It's the stock's second-deepest slump in the last decade, only exceeded by the one it took during the marketwide sell-off from late 2022 to early 2023.
However, Microsoft's business isn't struggling. In its fiscal 2026 second quarter (which ended Dec. 31), its revenue rose 17% year over year. Its cloud computing division, Azure, also did great, with revenue rising 39%. That segment's results offer investors a peek into the health of AI spending more broadly, and with its revenue continuing to soar, Microsoft looks to be in a great position.
Wall Street analysts expect 16% revenue growth next quarter, which is the same projection for its fiscal 2026 growth rate. In short, there isn't a ton to dislike about Microsoft's financials. Yet in the wake of this sell-off, the stock is now near its cheapest levels of the past decade.
I'm choosing to gauge its valuation using the operating price-to-earnings ratio because that excludes the effects of investment gains. Microsoft owns 27% of OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT. That investment has added a ton of net income to Microsoft on paper, even though it hasn't locked any of that in by selling any of its stake. From an operating P/E standpoint, its stock has seldom been this cheap, and any time investors have taken the opportunity to buy it at a similar level and held on, they have made a great profit.
I think right now is as good a time as any to buy Microsoft stock.
2. Meta Platforms
While the market has had a mostly positive relationship with Microsoft stock over the past decade, its relationship with Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META) falls more under the category of love-hate. Right now, the market is trending toward a negative view of the social media giant: Meta stock is down around 23% from its all-time high. The company is no stranger to deep sell-offs, though. It has been down 20% or more from its all-time high several times over the past decade.
Yet Meta's latest results also look great. In Q4, revenue was up 24% year over year, thanks to its ad sales continuing to soar.
The biggest issue the market has with Meta isn't its growth or current business, but what it's spending on AI infrastructure. It is routing nearly every dollar of its operating cash flow into its data center capital expenditures, which it has said will land in the $115 billion to $135 billion range this year. That's sparking concerns among investors that the company is overextending itself.
However, what the skeptics fail to realize is that the risk of underspending is far greater than that of overspending. If Meta's AI aspirations lead to a popular consumer product, its stock could soar, and the company could essentially become the next Apple. This would justify the billions of dollars it has spent developing AI as well as its smart glasses.
I'm still bullish on Meta's future, and I think that this price is a great buying opportunity. The market always comes back around to loving Meta stock eventually.
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Keithen Drury has positions in Meta Platforms and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft and is short shares of Apple. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
AI Talk Show
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"A drawdown from all-time highs is not itself evidence of value; you must separate macro valuation reset from company-specific deterioration, and this article conflates the two."
The article conflates a drawdown with a buying opportunity without addressing *why* the drawdown occurred or whether fundamentals justify it. MSFT's 30% decline isn't random—it reflects valuation compression as Treasury yields rose and AI capex ROI remains unproven. Azure's 39% growth is real, but the article ignores that this growth rate is decelerating from prior quarters and that Microsoft's operating P/E, while cheaper than peaks, still sits above historical medians when adjusted for macro rates. META's $115-135B capex bet is presented as obviously justified, but the article offers zero evidence that this spending will generate returns exceeding cost of capital. The 'risk of underspending > overspending' claim is asserted, not demonstrated.
Both stocks have fallen 20-30% for structural reasons—rising rates make high-growth valuations less defensible, and neither company has yet proven AI capex generates ROI above their WACC. Buying here assumes mean reversion; it could instead mean the market is rationally repricing them downward.
"The transition from high-margin software to capital-intensive AI infrastructure necessitates a lower valuation multiple than historical averages."
The article frames MSFT and META as 'screaming buys' based on historical pullbacks, but it ignores the fundamental shift in capital intensity. Microsoft’s 39% Azure growth is impressive, yet the article glosses over the 'fiscal 2026' dating, suggesting this is forward-looking speculation or a typo-laden report. For Meta, spending $115B-$135B in Capex (capital expenditures) represents a massive pivot from a high-margin software business to a hardware-heavy infrastructure play. While the operating P/E looks attractive, these valuations may be 'value traps' if AI monetization doesn't scale fast enough to offset the massive depreciation costs hitting the income statement in 2025-2026.
If AI infrastructure becomes a commoditized arms race with no clear 'killer app,' these companies are essentially burning cash to maintain a status quo that used to be much cheaper to defend.
"N/A"
[Unavailable]
"AI capex escalation risks FCF evaporation and margin compression if monetization lags, keeping valuations stretched despite dips."
The article pushes MSFT and META as 'screaming buys' after 23-30% pullbacks, citing Azure's 39% growth and META's 24% revenue jump, but ignores persistent high valuations—MSFT at ~34x forward operating EPS (excluding volatile OpenAI gains) is far from 'seldom cheap' historically, while META routes ~100% of OCF to $115-135B capex, vulnerable to ad slowdowns in recession or AI ROI delays. Missing context: intensifying cloud competition (AWS, Google) caps margins; no full 'Iran war,' just tensions pressuring semis/AI supply chains. These aren't bargains, just corrections in an AI froth.
If AI consumer products like META's smart glasses or MSFT's Copilot explode, capex justifies multiples expansion to 50x+ as in past tech booms. Historical dips in both have delivered 50-100% rebounds within 12-18 months.
"META's capex risk isn't the spend itself but the sunk-cost psychology that prevents course correction if AI ROI fails to materialize."
Grok flags META's 100% OCF-to-capex routing as a vulnerability, but misses that this is *choice*, not constraint. META could cut capex tomorrow if ROI looked bad. The real risk: management's capex thesis becomes self-fulfilling dogma. If smart glasses flop and ad growth slows simultaneously, they're trapped defending a $120B bet nobody can unwind without admitting error. That's worse than overspending—it's organizational lock-in.
"Future depreciation from current massive capex will suppress earnings and inflate P/E ratios regardless of future spending cuts."
Claude and Grok are underestimating the 'depreciation cliff.' Even if Meta cuts capex tomorrow, the billions already spent hit the income statement as non-cash expenses for years, dragging down GAAP earnings and artificially inflating P/E ratios. This makes them look 'expensive' exactly when they need to look cheap to attract value investors. We aren't just looking at a spending spike; we're looking at a structural margin compression that won't vanish if the AI hype cools.
"GPU supplier concentration and potential export controls materially raise capex cost, deployment risk, and downside for MSFT and META."
Gemini—your hardware pivot point is right, but you missed the single-vendor and geopolitics vector: both Microsoft and Meta are heavily dependent on NVIDIA-class GPUs. A price hike, supply squeeze, or tighter US export controls to China would materially raise marginal capex and delay deployments, worsening the depreciation/margin squeeze and shrinking addressable revenue. Models need scenario tests for GPU price inflation and export-restriction outcomes, not just ROI timelines.
"Unmentioned energy costs amplify GPU/capex risks, disproportionately pressuring META's margins."
ChatGPT spotlights GPU risks aptly, but nobody connects it to surging energy costs for AI data centers—MSFT/META capex ignores $10-20B annual power bills at hyperscale (PUE 1.1-1.2). A 20-30% electricity hike from grid strains or carbon regs turns 'overspend' into outright losses, hitting META's thinner ad margins hardest vs. MSFT's enterprise stickiness.
Panel Verdict
Consensus ReachedThe panel generally agrees that the current pullbacks in MSFT and META are not buying opportunities due to high valuations, unproven AI capex ROI, and potential risks from hardware-heavy infrastructure plays and geopolitical factors. They caution that these are not bargains, but corrections in an AI-driven market.
None identified
Organizational lock-in due to massive capex bets and potential AI monetization delays, leading to margin compression and artificially inflated P/E ratios.