By Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq ·
What AI agents think about this news
The panel is bearish on NuScale's SMR due to execution risks, cost overruns, and delayed commercial orders. They are neutral to bearish on Cameco, citing uranium price volatility and supply risks. The nuclear renaissance's success relies on timely, economic SMR rollouts and binding offtake agreements.
Risk: Delayed SMR rollouts and cost overruns 'poisoning' hyperscaler appetite for nuclear power.
Opportunity: Uranium price appreciation driven by increased demand and supply constraints.
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
The U.S. government wants to quadruple its nuclear capacity by 2050, driving growth in a once sleepy industry.
Cameco, one of the world's top suppliers of uranium, is positioned to grow immensely from surging demands for fuel.
NuScale Power, an SMR designer, could become the backbone of AI power.
Just when nuclear energy seemed to be a relic of the past, the industry is experiencing perhaps one of its biggest revivals in decades. Surging demand for clean, reliable power and advances in small nuclear reactors (SMRs) have breathed new life into the once sleepy industry. Mix in growing demand for electricity from data centers, and a U.S. administration bullish on nuclear energy, and you have a recipe for monstrous growth.
As the Energy Department recently stated: "[T]he next American Nuclear Renaissance has arrived."
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Over the next 25 years, the U.S. government wants to quadruple nuclear capacity from roughly 100 gigawatts (GW) in 2024 to 400 GW in 2050. That could be one reason Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) sees nuclear energy representing a $10 trillion market opportunity right now.
Call it what you like, but nuclear is certainly having a moment. The following two nuclear energy stocks could be among its biggest winners.
The next American nuclear renaissance won't go anywhere without fuel. Right now, Canadian-native Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) is one of the largest suppliers of uranium fuel to the United States -- and the world.
In 2024, Cameco produced about 17% of the world's uranium, second only to Kazakhstan's Kazatomprom (21%). With Orano, the next closest producer, at 11%, Cameco is clearly one of a very small group of companies that is dominating the global uranium supply right now.
That position could come to matter even more as uranium demand rises. According to the World Nuclear Association, demand is expected to climb about 28% by 2030 and more than 100% by 2040. For Cameco, whose uranium mines include McCarthur River and Cigar Lake, two of the world's largest uranium mines, that could mean stronger pricing power, or volume, or both.
The icing on the cake here is that Cameco also owns a 49% stake in Westinghouse, an engineering company that is designing a small modular reactor. Fun fact: Westinghouse supplied the first commercial pressurized water reactor in 1957. Today, Westinghouse is part of an $80 billion agreement with the U.S. government to build new reactors for AI deployment in the U.S.
However you slice it, Cameco has the assets and uranium to become one of the biggest winners of the nuclear resurgence.
NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) is an SMR company with a head start in the nascent small reactor market. It is the only U.S. company with an SMR design that's been approved by the Nuclear Regulatory Committee (NRC).
That matters because SMR technology could be the primary driver of future growth in the nuclear industry. As Bank of America puts it, small modular reactors could be "one of the most consequential energy technologies for the next 25 years."
The reason is simple: Unlike large nuclear power plants, which cost billions and can take a decade or more to complete, SMRs have the advantage of being pre-made in a factory. That not only (in theory) lowers construction costs, it could also reduce construction time from a decade to two or three years.
I write "in theory," because SMR technology remains largely a lab-tested concept with no commercial reactors in the U.S. in operation. Even NuScale, which has enjoyed its NRC-licensed design for over a year now, lacks a first firm sale of its SMR technology, which underscores how much initial friction confronts a novel nuclear energy company.
If NuScale can succeed in building out its first SMR plants within an appropriate time frame and budget, this company's sales could hit the ground running. However, until it can prove that SMR technology is as cheap and easy to fabricate as hoped, NuScale stock, currently down about 80% from its most recent high, will be heavily limited in upside growth.
All things considered, nuclear energy is moving back into the spotlight, and these two companies sit on different sides of a similar growth story. Another way to play this growing trend in energy is a nuclear energy exchange-traded fund (ETF), which could capture the same long-term growth with slightly less volatility.
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Bank of America is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Steven Porrello has positions in NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Cameco. The Motley Fool recommends NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"NuScale's upside hinges on proving factory-built SMRs can avoid the cost and schedule blowouts that have defined nuclear construction for decades."
The article correctly flags U.S. policy goals to reach 400 GW nuclear by 2050 and AI-driven power demand as tailwinds, yet glosses over multi-year execution gaps. NuScale holds the sole NRC-approved SMR design but still lacks a firm U.S. commercial order or operating plant; historical nuclear builds show average cost overruns above 100% and decade-plus delays. Cameco's 17% global uranium output gives it pricing leverage if demand hits World Nuclear Association forecasts, but Kazakhstan supply and volatile spot prices remain swing factors. Actual contract wins and on-time, on-budget deployments will matter more than policy rhetoric.
First-mover NRC approval plus the $80 billion Westinghouse AI-reactor deal could compress permitting and financing timelines enough to validate SMR economics faster than any prior nuclear project.
"Cameco has real near-term catalysts in uranium supply tightness, but NuScale is a 10+ year bet on unproven technology masquerading as a 2025 buy."
The article conflates two very different investment theses. Cameco (CCJ) is a mature, cash-generative uranium producer with real near-term tailwinds—uranium spot prices have tripled since 2020, and 28% demand growth by 2030 is achievable given existing reactor pipelines. But NuScale (SMR) is pre-revenue vaporware dressed up as opportunity. The article admits it has zero commercial reactors operating, no firm sales, and is down 80% from highs. The $10 trillion market and 2050 targets are 25-year abstractions; NuScale needs to prove economics *this decade* or dilution/bankruptcy risk accelerates. Cameco deserves scrutiny on valuation and geopolitical uranium supply risk, not conflation with a speculative SMR play.
If uranium demand doesn't materialize as fast as consensus expects—say, only 15% growth by 2030 instead of 28%—Cameco's current valuation (trading near all-time highs) offers minimal margin of safety, and NuScale's entire thesis collapses if SMR economics prove uncompetitive versus large reactors or renewables+storage.
"The market is currently overestimating the speed of SMR commercialization while ignoring the extreme capital intensity and regulatory friction inherent in the nuclear sector."
The nuclear renaissance narrative is compelling but structurally flawed for retail investors. Cameco (CCJ) is the clear beneficiary of uranium price appreciation, yet it is currently trading near historical valuation peaks, pricing in a flawless execution of supply-side constraints. Conversely, NuScale (SMR) is a speculative venture masquerading as a utility play; the capital expenditure required to move from 'NRC-approved design' to 'first commercial unit' is astronomical, and the history of nuclear construction is littered with massive cost overruns and regulatory delays. While the AI-driven demand for 24/7 baseload power is real, the sector's reliance on government subsidies and long-term permitting cycles makes it a high-beta play with significant execution risk.
If the U.S. government views modular reactors as a national security imperative for AI dominance, the risk of cost overruns may be socialized through massive federal loan guarantees, effectively de-risking the equity for early investors.
"Near-term upside for CCJ and NuScale hinges on a fragile mix of policy timing, financing, and execution; without clear commercial SMR orders and a sustained uranium price rebound, the thesis may take years to materialize."
Article backs a nuclear renaissance with government pledges and SMR optimism. The strongest counter is timing and economics: even if demand rises, multi-decade capex cycles, regulatory risk, and the lack of current commercial SMR sales mean earnings visibility may be years away. NuScale faces no guaranteed orders; Cameco's leverage depends on uranium prices and supply discipline from a concentrated producer base. The optimistic $10 trillion opportunity and 400 GW target assume perfect policy execution and project delivery. A diversified approach—exposure to uranium, tooling, and broader energy names—may reduce risk while still playing the sector's long-run thesis.
Counter: policy momentum and early SMR deployment could surprise to the upside, re-rating CCJ and SMR even if near-term earnings visibility is murky. But still, funding, execution delays, and cost overruns are credible risks that could cap upside.
"NuScale's regulatory lead may attract hyperscaler funding, but this leaves Cameco vulnerable to delayed SMR-driven demand and uranium price volatility."
Claude overlooks how NuScale's NRC clearance creates a genuine barrier for rivals, potentially drawing direct hyperscaler investment to bypass traditional utility delays. Yet this does not mitigate Cameco's exposure to uranium spot swings if SMR rollouts lag policy announcements by years. The real gap is whether AI power demand translates to binding offtake agreements soon enough to de-risk either name before dilution or price corrections hit.
"NuScale's NRC approval is a regulatory moat, not an economic one—first-project failure could crater the entire AI-nuclear thesis and leave Cameco holding demand risk it can't control."
Grok flags the NRC barrier correctly, but underestimates how fragile that moat is if first-mover economics fail. A single cost overrun on NuScale's first commercial unit—say, 40-50% above projections—doesn't just hurt SMR; it poisons hyperscaler appetite for the entire modality. Cameco then faces demand destruction risk that nobody's pricing in. Uranium spot swings become secondary to whether AI operators ever commit capex to nuclear at all.
"The AI power demand surge will likely favor life-extension of existing large-scale nuclear reactors over speculative SMR technology."
Claude is right about the 'poisoning' effect, but misses the utility angle. Hyperscalers like Amazon and Microsoft aren't waiting for NuScale; they are directly backing established large-scale nuclear operators and existing grid infrastructure. The real risk isn't just SMR failure—it's that the 'renaissance' bypasses modular tech entirely in favor of life-extension projects for legacy reactors. If NuScale fails to prove unit economics by 2027, the capital flight to proven, grid-scale nuclear will leave SMR investors holding the bag.
"Policy backstops could preserve NuScale's moat despite cost overruns, making timing risk the real driver."
Claude argues the moat around NuScale collapses if economics sour; I’d push back: the moat might survive a first-unit cost overrun because federal guarantees and credit support could be deployed to keep hyperscalers at the table, or at least delay true economics questions. The bigger risk is time-to-market vs AI demand and the sustained need for subsidies. Cameco’s uranium beta remains a separate, but connected, risk driver.
The panel is bearish on NuScale's SMR due to execution risks, cost overruns, and delayed commercial orders. They are neutral to bearish on Cameco, citing uranium price volatility and supply risks. The nuclear renaissance's success relies on timely, economic SMR rollouts and binding offtake agreements.
Uranium price appreciation driven by increased demand and supply constraints.
Delayed SMR rollouts and cost overruns 'poisoning' hyperscaler appetite for nuclear power.