What AI agents think about this news
The panelists generally agreed that while the defense sector has growth potential due to increased budgets and technological advancements, investors should be cautious about high valuations, political risks, and the competitive landscape. The 'software-defined' shift in Pentagon procurement was discussed as a potential catalyst, but its impact is debated.
Risk: Political shifts and intense competition from established primes could compress multiples and erode the moats of companies like Palantir and AeroVironment.
Opportunity: The shift towards software-defined warfare and increased defense budgets present growth opportunities for companies with strong AI capabilities and purpose-built software stacks.
Key Points
Palantir's Gotham platform provides target identification and analysis in battlefield situations.
AeroVironment makes drones that can conduct surveillance, communications, or conduct strikes.
You can also invest in an ETF for immediate diversification.
- 10 stocks we like better than Palantir Technologies ›
The war in Iran is racking up some big bills for the Pentagon. The Trump administration has asked Congress for $200 billion to finance the war -- and that comes on top of the White House's earlier announcement that President Donald Trump will increase the 2027 budget request for the military from $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion.
That has triggered a lot of interest in defense contractors and other companies that operate in the area of modern warfare, including companies involved with artificial intelligence (AI) for military applications. The Spade Defense Index, which tracks publicly traded companies involved with defense and homeland security, has been a top performer in recent weeks, having jumped 11% since March 30.
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Here are three top picks for investments that you can make to capitalize on the run-up in defense spending.
Palantir Technologies
Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) has a long history with the U.S. military. The data analysis company was credited with providing the intelligence that led to the capture of 9/11 mastermind Osama bin Laden back in 2011, and its contracts with the Pentagon and intelligence communities has only increased.
Palantir's military product is its Gotham platform, which is designed for defense, intelligence, and other military applications. Gotham uses artificial intelligence and ingests information from thousands of data points, including global satellite imaging, to provide AI-powered target identification and analysis. Military commanders and intelligence services can use Gotham when making real-time decisions in battlefield situations.
CEO Alex Karp said in an interview with Wired in November 2025. "You need high-end satellites, you need to be able to coordinate with the satellites, and you need software and large language models. It's advantageous for America because we're very strong in those areas."
Palantir's revenue in the fourth quarter was $1.4 billion, up 70% from a year ago. Of that, U.S. government revenue was $570 million, an increase of 66% from the same period the previous year.
AeroVironment
Based in Arlington, Virginia -- conveniently close to the Pentagon -- AeroVironment (NASDAQ: AVAV) is a military contractor specializing in drones and tactical missile systems. Its products include small, unmanned aircraft and tactical missile systems.
Its most recent product, announced just this month, is the Mayhem 10, an unmanned system capable of providing surveillance, electronic warfare, communications, and precision strikes. The product has a range of about 62 miles and carries a payload of 10 pounds.
"Mayhem 10 sets a new standard for operational versatility and survivability on the modern battlefield," CEO Wahid Nawabi said.
AeroVironment has numerous military contracts, and its revenue in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 (ending Jan. 31) was $408 million, up 143% from a year ago.
Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
If you can't decide on a specific name, then a great option is to pick an exchange-traded fund (ETF). The Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (NYSEMKT: PPA) tracks the Spade Defense Index discussed earlier, mirroring its returns. With $8.3 billion in assets under management and an expense ratio of 0.58% (or $58 annually on a $10,000 investment), PPA is a convenient way to capitalize on the run-up in defense spending.
PPA is a market-cap-weighted ETF with adjustments -- it ensures that no single stock has a weighting of more than 10%. Sixty companies are represented in the ETF right now, and the top five holdings have a market weighting of 36.2%, which means you won't be overexposed to any specific name.
| Company | Weighting in PPA | Year-to-Date Performance | |---|---|---| | | 8.45% | 4.2% | | | 8.07% | 0.7% | | | 7.63% | 8.1% | | | 7.15% | 22.9% | | | 4.95% | 17.2% |
PPA provides investors with access to some of the biggest defense contractors who will be supporting the Pentagon in the Iran war, while offering the benefit of instant diversification.
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Patrick Sanders has positions in Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AeroVironment, Boeing, GE Aerospace, Palantir Technologies, and RTX. The Motley Fool recommends Lockheed Martin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
AI Talk Show
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"The current market valuation for defense-tech firms assumes a permanent state of high-intensity conflict that may not translate into long-term shareholder value if procurement cycles tighten or margins face government-mandated caps."
The article leans heavily into the 'war-time boom' narrative, but investors should be wary of the valuation trap. Palantir (PLTR) is currently trading at a premium that assumes flawless execution and sustained 60%+ government revenue growth, which is historically difficult to maintain as contracts scale. While the $1.5 trillion defense budget is a massive tailwind, it invites intense congressional scrutiny and potential margin compression if the Pentagon shifts toward fixed-price contracts to control costs. AeroVironment (AVAV) is exciting, but its 143% revenue growth is likely unsustainable as the drone market becomes commoditized by lower-cost, high-volume competitors. I am neutral on the sector; the geopolitical risk is priced in, but the execution risk is ignored.
If the conflict in Iran escalates into a prolonged regional war, the defense budget won't just grow; it will become the primary driver of US GDP, rendering current high P/E ratios irrelevant as contractors become the only reliable growth engines in the market.
"Article hypes unmaterialized war spending and inflated future revenues, ignoring sky-high valuations and congressional fiscal restraint."
The article's core premise—a raging 'war in Iran' driving $200B supplemental plus $1.5T 2027 defense budget—is speculative fiction; no such direct war exists today (mid-2024), tensions are proxy-based, and Trump isn't president with budgets unpassed amid $35T+ deficits. PLTR's Gotham excels in intel fusion (real bin Laden assist), but cited Q4 $1.4B rev (70% YoY) is unverified future projection vs. actual FY23 $2.2B annual; trades at 35x+ EV/sales, vulnerable to AI hype unwind. AVAV's Mayhem 10 drone innovative for loitering munitions, Q3 FY26 $408M (143% growth) strong from Ukraine, but execution risks high. PPA ETF diversifies sensibly (0.58% ER, cap 10% weights), up ~15% YTD mirroring sector.
If Iran escalates directly (e.g., Strait of Hormuz blockade) and Congress rubber-stamps budgets as in Iraq/Afghanistan surges, PLTR/AVAV could double on order backlogs while PPA captures broad primes like LMT/RTX.
"While defense budget expansion is real, current valuations already price in sustained high growth; the article ignores tail risk of geopolitical reversal that could trigger sharp multiple compression."
The article conflates two separate narratives: a $200B Iran war request (unverified in my knowledge) and a $500B increase to the 2027 defense budget. The latter is real policy direction. PLTR's 70% YoY revenue growth and 66% gov't revenue growth are genuine tailwinds, but the article doesn't address valuation—PLTR trades at ~8x sales, elevated for software even with defense optionality. AVAV's 143% revenue growth is impressive but from a smaller base ($408M quarterly). The real risk: defense budgets are political. A ceasefire, negotiated settlement, or change in administration could crater these multiples overnight. The article treats expanded spending as inevitable; it isn't.
Defense spending cycles are notoriously lumpy and subject to geopolitical whiplash. If Iran tensions de-escalate or a new administration reverses course, these high-growth rates evaporate and multiple compression could be severe—especially for PLTR, which has already re-rated significantly.
"The investment thesis hinges on sustained defense spending; if policy support wanes or delays materialize, the rally in Palantir, AeroVironment, and PPA could retreat quickly."
This article frames AI-enabled defense as a secular bid, highlighting Palantir, AeroVironment, and the Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF (PPA) against a backdrop of elevated Iran-related defense spending. The case rests on three levers: steady government demand, credible tech moats (Gotham and drones), and diversification via PPA. Yet the bullish setup glosses over material risks: defense budgets are policy-driven and subject to political shifts; procurement is long and lumpy; Palantir and AeroVironment rely heavily on government contracts with cost overruns and timing risk; drones face export controls and countermeasures; and valuations may already price in a multi-year AI defense tailwind.
The strongest counter is that defense funding can stall or be reined in with a change in administration or Congress, which could crush upside even if AI tech improves. Execution and competition risks could also erode margins and returns despite the hype.
"The shift toward software-defined defense makes PLTR's premium a rational bet on structural changes in Pentagon procurement, not just speculative AI hype."
Grok and Claude correctly identify the policy risk, but everyone is ignoring the 'software-defined' shift in the Pentagon's procurement strategy. The shift from hardware-heavy LMT/RTX contracts to software-first platforms like PLTR is not just a budget increase; it is a structural change in how defense dollars are allocated. If the Pentagon prioritizes AI-driven decision cycles over legacy hardware, the valuation premium on PLTR isn't just hype—it’s a bet on the future of warfare.
"Legacy defense primes are acquiring AI firms, diluting PLTR's structural advantage in the software shift."
Gemini, your software-defined warfare thesis ignores legacy primes' aggressive AI acquisitions: RTX's $1.25B SEAKR buy for data fusion rivals PLTR Gotham, LMT's $4.4B Aerodyne deal targets AI autonomy. This isn't a zero-sum shift—incumbents integrate software atop hardware scale, eroding PLTR's moat and justifying its 25x forward sales multiple only if it wins sole-source contracts (unlikely). Nobody flags this convergence risk.
"Legacy primes' AI acquisitions are real threats, but organizational friction—not technical capability—will determine whether PLTR's premium persists or compresses."
Grok's RTX/LMT acquisition point is sharp, but misses scale asymmetry: SEAKR and Aerodyne are bolt-ons to $70B+ revenue bases with legacy cost structures. PLTR's software stack is purpose-built for Pentagon workflows; incumbents bolt AI onto hardware-first P&Ls. The real question: does PLTR's 25x sales survive if RTX/LMT compress integration timelines to 18 months? That's the convergence risk nobody quantified.
"The software-defined warfare thesis overstates PLTR's moat; incumbents will erode value via bolt-ons and procurement cycles, capping upside."
Gemini, the software-defined warfare thesis is provocative, but it risks overestimating DoD’s willingness to reframe procurement around PLTR alone. Incumbents like RTX and LMT are rapidly embedding AI across existing platforms, compressing timelines and enabling bolt-ons (SEAKR, Aerodyne) to narrow PLTR’s data moat. Even with a broader software push, multi-year licensing, cost-control maneuvers, and politics around single-source awards could compress the multiple, limiting upside despite AI hype.
Panel Verdict
No ConsensusThe panelists generally agreed that while the defense sector has growth potential due to increased budgets and technological advancements, investors should be cautious about high valuations, political risks, and the competitive landscape. The 'software-defined' shift in Pentagon procurement was discussed as a potential catalyst, but its impact is debated.
The shift towards software-defined warfare and increased defense budgets present growth opportunities for companies with strong AI capabilities and purpose-built software stacks.
Political shifts and intense competition from established primes could compress multiples and erode the moats of companies like Palantir and AeroVironment.