By Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq ·
What AI agents think about this news
The panel is divided on the investment merit of a hypothetical SpaceX IPO, with concerns raised about execution risks, regulatory hurdles, and competition from established tech companies. While some panelists highlight SpaceX's potential as a disruptor in the cloud stack, others question its growth prospects and valuation.
Risk: Execution risk on Starship capex cycles and potential delays in orbital refueling.
Opportunity: Potential disruption of the entire cloud stack through SpaceX's pivot to 'Space-as-a-Service'.
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), known as SpaceX, is attracting a lot of attention, as it should. It's the largest IPO the world has ever seen, led by the visionary Elon Musk. Although Musk may be a polarizing figure, there's no denying the success he's delivered to investors so far through Tesla.
While investors may want Tesla-like returns, achieving them with SpaceX will be nearly impossible given its sheer size. Instead, I think investors should focus on other stocks that look like great values or are growing at lightspeed. These all appear to be better investments than SpaceX and will make investors far more money over the next few years.
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Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) may sound like a boring old investment, which may be partially true. However, it has a few things going for it.
First, it's well off its all-time highs. The market has turned sour on Microsoft's stock despite the company's excellence in many areas, specifically in artificial intelligence (AI). Its AI product lineup grew annual recurring revenue by 123% to $37 billion during its most recent quarter.
Additionally, its cloud computing division, Azure, increased revenue by 40%. Overall, Microsoft's quarterly revenue rose at an 18% pace to $82.9 billion. For reference, SpaceX's 2025 revenue totaled $18.7 billion, up 33%.
Microsoft is also attractively valued, trading at one of the lowest price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios the market has seen in a while.
While SpaceX may be the flashy stock, Microsoft is the workhorse that will deliver for investors over the long term. As a result, I think it's an excellent buy right now.
If Microsoft is growing too slowly for your liking, Nebius (NASDAQ: NBIS) might be a better pick. In one aspect, Nebius and SpaceX may be head-to-head competitors.
Nebius is a neocloud company specializing in AI-ready cloud computing. Part of SpaceX's business plan is to launch AI data centers into space, and whether it's a success remains to be seen.
One thing that isn't up for debate is Nebius's success right now. In the first quarter, it grew revenue by 684% year over year. That's not the end of it, either. Wall Street analysts expect 550% revenue growth for 2026 and 225% in 2027. SpaceX can only dream of growth like that, and it doesn't have any divisions remotely close to Nebius's growth rate.
I think Nebius is primed to continue growing rapidly and will easily outpace SpaceX over the next few years, making it a better stock pick.
If you're looking for a combination of growth and value, then Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is your ticket.
The world's largest company makes GPUs that power AI workloads in data centers. It's growing at a remarkable pace right now and is expected to keep that up for some time. For fiscal year (FY) 2027 (ending January 2027), Wall Street analysts expect 81% growth and 41% in FY 2028. Those are both faster growth rates than SpaceX is currently growing, and Nvidia can also be purchased at a pretty attractive valuation.
At 31 times earnings, it's not particularly expensive, especially compared to other tech stocks like Apple and Amazon, which trade at 36 and 29 times earnings, respectively. Neither of these (or any other big tech stock, including SpaceX) has growth remotely close to Nvidia.
Nvidia is a rare combination of growth and value and will likely result in huge returns. I think it will easily outperform SpaceX moving forward, and I'm putting my money there instead of the latest hot IPO.
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Keithen Drury has positions in Amazon, Microsoft, Nebius Group, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"Nebius revenue projections of 550% in 2026 rest on an unsustainable small-base effect that established cloud providers will likely erode."
The piece pushes MSFT, NBIS, and NVDA as superior to a hypothetical SpaceX IPO by citing Azure's 40% growth, NBIS's 684% revenue surge, and NVDA's 31x P/E with 81% expected FY2027 growth. Yet it underplays that NBIS starts from a tiny revenue base where percentage gains fade quickly, MSFT's AI recurring revenue of $37B still trails its core Windows/Office scale, and NVDA's valuation assumes sustained data-center dominance amid rising custom-chip competition from hyperscalers. SpaceX's $18.7B 2025 revenue already dwarfs most private peers and benefits from Starlink's recurring cash flow, making direct growth comparisons misleading without enterprise value or margin details.
Even if NBIS growth slows, its AI-cloud niche could still compound faster than SpaceX's capital-intensive launch business if satellite data-center plans stall.
"The article misrepresents SpaceX's IPO reality and relies on cherry-picked growth metrics to push a contrarian tilt without adequately addressing SpaceX's cost structure, regulatory risk, and the volatility of AI demand."
Initial take: the piece reads like a marketing pitch that misstates SpaceX IPO status and cherry-picks numbers to favor MSFT, NBIS, and NVDA. The claim that SpaceX has the largest IPO and that SPCX exists as a tradable ticker appears inaccurate; SpaceX has not publicly filed for an IPO as of mid-2026, and NBIS is a lesser-known name with unproven profitability. The growth metrics for Nebius and the 31x earnings for Nvidia gloss over risk: AI demand is cyclical, capital intensity is high, and multiples can compress if cash flows disappoint. The article omits SpaceX cash burn, regulatory risk, and the broader macro backdrop, including rate sensitivity and capex cycles.
If SpaceX actually files and prices a mega-valuation, it could unlock a rare, secular growth leg that dwarfs today’s AI hardware peers. Also, Nebius, if proven, could become a credible cloud platform, making this call dangerously binary.
"Comparing SpaceX to high-growth software stocks like Nebius is a false equivalence that ignores the unique risk-reward profile of space-based infrastructure."
The premise that SpaceX is a 'bad' investment because it isn't growing at 600% like Nebius is a category error. SpaceX is a capital-intensive infrastructure play with a deep-moat monopoly in launch services, not a software-as-a-service firm. Comparing MSFT's 18% growth to SpaceX's 33% ignores the latter's massive R&D burn and high-barrier-to-entry hardware reality. Nebius is essentially a speculative proxy for Russian-linked cloud infrastructure, carrying significant geopolitical risk that the article glosses over entirely. While NVDA remains the AI kingmaker, the piece conflates 'valuation' with 'price,' ignoring that SpaceX's private market premium reflects scarcity, not just hype.
If SpaceX achieves Starship's orbital refueling and mass-to-orbit cost reductions, it could commoditize the space economy, rendering the 'infrastructure' moat wider than any software platform's competitive advantage.
"The article compares a pre-IPO speculative company to mature profitable firms using inconsistent metrics, while ignoring that SpaceX's existing Starlink business already generates margins and cash flow none of the three alternatives can match."
This article conflates IPO timing with investment merit. SpaceX hasn't IPO'd yet—SPCX doesn't exist as a ticker. The author compares a speculative future valuation to established profitable companies, which is apples-to-oranges. More critically: Microsoft's 18% revenue growth and 123% ARR growth in AI are real, but the P/E comparison is misleading without forward multiples. Nebius's 684% YoY growth is cherry-picked from a tiny base (neocloud is nascent); 550% 2026 guidance assumes no deceleration. Nvidia at 31x forward earnings isn't 'attractive'—it's fairly valued for 81% growth, leaving limited margin of safety if guidance misses. The article ignores that SpaceX's Starlink already generates $10B+ annually with 60%+ margins, a genuine competitive moat none of these three possess.
If SpaceX's space-based AI data center thesis succeeds and captures even 5% of global cloud capex by 2030, its revenue could dwarf current projections, making today's IPO valuation a bargain relative to MSFT, NBIS, or NVDA—and the author's dismissal of 'nearly impossible' returns assumes market saturation that may not materialize.
"Revenue source mismatch between panelists reveals SpaceX's capital risks exceed the software comparisons drawn."
Claude's Starlink $10B+ revenue claim at 60%+ margins clashes with Grok's $18.7B total SpaceX 2025 figure, implying launch and other segments drive more scale than isolated satellite metrics allow. This undercuts the moat narrative by highlighting execution risk in Starship capex cycles that could pressure margins if orbital refueling delays materialize. No one addressed how custom ASIC competition from MSFT and others might cap NVDA's 81% growth assumptions faster than satellite data-center bets.
"Starlink margins are not durable; 60% margins rely on favorable subsidy and capex conditions that could unwind."
Claude overstates Starlink’s moat by anchoring on 60% margins and $10B+ revenue as if that’s a durable, scalable profit engine. In reality, SpaceX’s satellite business is ultra capex-intensive and exposed to regulatory risks, launch cadence, spectrum costs, and price competition. A single delay or subsidy rollback could compress margins quickly, weakening the case for a private-space valuation premium as a moat asset. Starlink alone isn’t a riskless ladder to sustained high returns.
"SpaceX's potential transition to orbital edge computing poses a greater threat to the cloud dominance of MSFT and NBIS than current terrestrial ASIC competition."
Claude and ChatGPT are fixated on Starlink’s margins, but they miss the real systemic risk: the 'Space-as-a-Service' pivot. If SpaceX moves toward orbital compute, they aren't just a launch provider; they become a direct competitor to Azure and Nebius. The real threat to NVDA isn't just custom ASICs from hyperscalers, but the potential for SpaceX to vertically integrate satellite-based edge processing, bypassing terrestrial cloud latency entirely. This makes the SpaceX IPO a potential disruptor of the entire cloud stack.
"SpaceX's cloud-disruption upside is real but contingent on Starship becoming routine, which isn't priced into current IPO speculation."
Gemini's Space-as-a-Service pivot is the crux nobody fully stress-tested. If SpaceX vertically integrates orbital compute, it doesn't just compete with NVDA's chips—it competes with Azure's entire margin structure by collapsing latency and capex arbitrage. But this assumes Starship cadence hits 100+ launches/year AND orbital refueling works. Both are unproven. The real question: does SpaceX's execution risk on Starship make this a 2028+ story, not a 2026 IPO valuation driver?
The panel is divided on the investment merit of a hypothetical SpaceX IPO, with concerns raised about execution risks, regulatory hurdles, and competition from established tech companies. While some panelists highlight SpaceX's potential as a disruptor in the cloud stack, others question its growth prospects and valuation.
Potential disruption of the entire cloud stack through SpaceX's pivot to 'Space-as-a-Service'.
Execution risk on Starship capex cycles and potential delays in orbital refueling.