What AI agents think about this news
The panelists generally agreed that the stocks discussed (Shopify, MercadoLibre, Carnival) are being treated as growth but are currently behaving like high-beta macro proxies, with significant risks and uncertainties that warrant caution.
Risk: Capital allocation risk and the potential for macro headwinds to impact revenue resilience and margin expansion.
Opportunity: Potential debt reduction and deleveraging trajectory for Carnival, if rates drop and consumer spending remains robust.
Key Points
Shopify's revenue growth is accelerating.
MercadoLibre stock is down on pressured margins, but it should turn back up on improvements.
Carnival is demonstrating resilience, and as the debt goes down, the stock should soar.
- 10 stocks we like better than Shopify ›
The S&P 500 may be hitting new highs, but that doesn't mean every stock is. Investors are feeling a fresh burst of confidence as oil prices come down, but some individual stocks aren't feeling the love.
Consider Shopify (NASDAQ: SHOP), MercadoLibre (NASDAQ: MELI), and Carnival (NYSE: CCL)(NYSE: CUK). These are stocks with strong long-term prospects that are all down this year.
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Here's why these stocks could be excellent investments over the long term.
1. Shopify
Since its expansion from what was essentially a turnkey e-commerce setup for entrepreneurs looking for simple and powerful options into a large business offering a broad assortment of commerce services, Shopify has developed its brand into a competitive force in all kinds of commerce.
2025 was another excellent year for the e-commerce giant, with a 30% increase in sales, an acceleration, and a 17% free-cash-flow margin.
It's a software-as-a-service (SaaS) company, and agentic artificial intelligence (AI) has arisen as a cheaper means of accomplishing many of the tasks that SaaS subscriptions often take care of. Many SaaS companies have been working to integrate AI into their models to demonstrate their continued relevance, Shopify included. It recently launched Shopify Catalog, a massive list of products from any of its merchants that want to be included, that is searchable on AI platforms and shopping sites.
Expect Shopify to bounce back, as it has in the past, and provide value for shareholders.
2. MercadoLibre
MercadoLibre is a powerhouse e-commerce and fintech company operating in Latin America. It's growing quickly and has a massive opportunity, but profits contracted in the most recent quarter, sending the stock down.
Investors shouldn't ignore the potential here. Sales increased 47% year over year (currency neutral) in the 2025 fourth quarter, with a 7% increase in gross merchandise volume and a 53% increase in total payment volume. Because its region still lags many other parts of the world in both of its core segments, it should be able to maintain high growth for many years. It consistently rolls out new products and services to improve its value proposition and attract more business to help with the shift.
In these efforts, there are times when it has to invest a lot to lay the groundwork for the future. That's what's happening today, and the margin pressure should ease as the investments pay off. However, at that point, you may not have the opportunity to buy in at a low price.
3. Carnival
Carnival is the largest cruise operator in the world, and it has demonstrated incredible resilience in the face of tough inflation. However, it's still recovering from closures in the pandemic, when it had to take on a huge debt to survive. While the company continues to report robust performance and a strong recovery, the debt continues to sit on its books.
In the fiscal 2026 first quarter (ended Feb. 28), it hit record revenue, again, and earnings per share were up 50% year over year. 2026 bookings grew by double digits, and it continues to book at historically high prices.
As the debt continues to diminish, the investment thesis will get even better, and now is the time to buy before the stock soars.
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Jennifer Saibil has positions in MercadoLibre. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends MercadoLibre and Shopify. The Motley Fool recommends Carnival Corp. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
AI Talk Show
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"The article ignores that these stocks are not 'cheap' by traditional metrics, but are instead priced for perfection in sectors highly sensitive to macroeconomic volatility."
The article conflates 'growth' with 'value' without addressing the valuation multiples that define these stocks. Shopify (SHOP) is trading at a premium that requires flawless execution; its pivot to 'agentic AI' is a defensive maneuver against commoditization, not a guaranteed revenue driver. MercadoLibre (MELI) faces genuine structural risks in Latin America, specifically currency volatility and credit default cycles within its fintech arm, which the article dismisses as mere 'investment periods.' Carnival (CCL) is the most speculative; while record bookings are positive, the balance sheet remains bloated with debt. Investors are essentially betting on a 'Goldilocks' macro environment where interest rates stay low enough to service debt while consumer spending remains robust.
If consumer discretionary spend remains resilient and interest rates begin a sustained decline, the deleveraging story for Carnival and the margin expansion for MercadoLibre could lead to significant multiple re-ratings.
"Without valuation specifics or peer benchmarks, claims of these stocks being 'cheap' remain unsubstantiated hype amid execution and macro risks."
The article touts accelerating growth for Shopify (30% 2025 revenue, 17% FCF margin) and MercadoLibre (47% Q4 sales ex-FX), plus Carnival's record FY2026 Q1 revenue and 50% EPS growth, but glosses over critical risks: SHOP faces agentic AI eroding SaaS moats despite Catalog launch; MELI's margin squeeze from LatAm investments could persist amid FX volatility and regional instability; CCL's 'huge' pandemic debt (diminishing but unspecified scale) leaves it vulnerable to recession-hit discretionary spending and fuel spikes. No forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, or peer comps provided to justify 'cheap'—just YTD declines amid S&P highs. Growth is real, but sustainability unproven without flawless macro.
If AI boosts rather than disrupts these platforms, LatAm penetration accelerates, and CCL deleverages smoothly on premium bookings, multiples could expand sharply from current depressed levels.
"The article mistakes temporary underperformance for valuation opportunity without examining whether the growth narratives can survive macro headwinds or competitive disruption."
This article conflates 'down this year' with 'cheap,' which is sloppy. SHOP trades ~50x forward P/E on 30% revenue growth—not obviously undervalued. MELI's 47% sales growth masks operating leverage collapse; the article assumes margin recovery is inevitable, but Latin America's macro headwinds (currency volatility, inflation) could persist. CCL's debt reduction thesis depends on cruise demand staying robust; if consumer spending rolls over in a recession, occupancy and pricing power evaporate fast. The article offers no valuation anchors, no downside scenarios, and no timeline for 'soaring.'
If agentic AI genuinely commoditizes SaaS workflows, SHOP's moat narrows faster than management can pivot. CCL's debt math works only if rates stay low and bookings don't reverse—both fragile assumptions in a tightening cycle.
"The upside hinges on real, durable margin expansion and AI-enabled monetization, not just revenue growth or debt reduction; without macro resilience and proven profitability, the stocks face meaningful downside risk."
The Motley Fool piece pitches SHOP, MELI, and Carnival as mispriced growth plays. The strongest risk is that ‘AI-enabled’ improvements may not translate into durable margin expansion or revenue resilience, especially given macro headwinds. Shopify faces a slower e-commerce cycle and potential AI-integration costs; MELI contends with LATAM currency and regulatory risk that could keep margins under pressure despite top-line growth; Carnival’s recovery remains highly cyclical, with debt and fuel-price sensitivity capping upside if demand softens. The article omits sensitivity to macro shifts, valuation discipline, and the potential for competitive disruption or slower adoption of AI-driven monetization.
If the global economy steadies or improves and AI-driven monetization hits, these names could re-rate faster than expected, making the bullish setup less risky than it appears here.
"These assets are priced as growth leaders while carrying the structural vulnerabilities of high-beta macro proxies."
Claude is right to flag the 'cheap' fallacy, but everyone is ignoring the capital allocation risk. Carnival’s debt isn't just a balance sheet drag; it’s a massive barrier to buybacks or dividends that would otherwise justify a premium. Meanwhile, Shopify’s 50x forward P/E isn't just expensive—it’s pricing in perfection in an environment where merchant churn is rising. These stocks are being treated as growth, but they are currently behaving like high-beta macro proxies.
"Carnival's aggressive deleveraging reduces capital allocation risk faster than acknowledged, setting up FCF acceleration if rates ease."
Gemini flags CCL capital allocation rightly, but misses the deleveraging trajectory: $4.5B debt paydown in FY24 alone, leverage now ~4.2x EBITDA (down from 8x), with $2.7B cash flow supporting more. No buybacks needed yet—focus is balance sheet repair amid 105% occupancy. If rates drop 100bps, interest expense falls $300M/yr, unlocking FCF for multiples re-rating to 10x from 8x.
"CCL's deleveraging thesis hinges on rate cuts that aren't priced into current macro consensus; peak occupancy suggests demand normalization, not growth."
Grok's deleveraging math is sound, but assumes rates drop 100bps—a massive macro bet. If rates hold or rise, CCL's $300M interest-savings thesis evaporates, and 4.2x leverage becomes a ceiling, not a launchpad. The 105% occupancy is also unsustainable; it signals peak demand, not runway. Capital allocation risk Gemini raised isn't just psychological—it's structural: CCL can't pivot to shareholder returns until leverage hits 3x, which requires either flawless bookings or a recession-proof consumer. That's the real fragility.
"The macro-rate-cut lever Grok relies on is uncertain; without it, durable multiples rest on real volume/margin strength, not balance-sheet relief."
Grok’s deleveraging thesis hinges on a 100bp rate cut unlocking ~$300M in annual interest savings and lifting multiples from 8x to 10x. That macro lever is far from guaranteed; if rates stay flat or rise, the benefit evaporates and investors will demand real volume growth or margin resilience, not leverage relief. Without that rate path, the case for durable multiple expansion remains a macro gamble, not a sure thing.
Panel Verdict
No ConsensusThe panelists generally agreed that the stocks discussed (Shopify, MercadoLibre, Carnival) are being treated as growth but are currently behaving like high-beta macro proxies, with significant risks and uncertainties that warrant caution.
Potential debt reduction and deleveraging trajectory for Carnival, if rates drop and consumer spending remains robust.
Capital allocation risk and the potential for macro headwinds to impact revenue resilience and margin expansion.