What AI agents think about this news
The panel consensus is bearish on Nebius (NBIS) due to massive execution risks, geopolitical concerns, and potential capital inefficiency. AVGO and NVDA are seen as more defensive plays but still face risks like margin compression and cyclical earnings.
Risk: Geopolitical risk and capital inefficiency in scaling data centers for Nebius, and margin compression for AVGO and NVDA.
Opportunity: Potential upside if AI demand remains linear and Nebius successfully executes its expansion plan.
Key Points
Broadcom and Nvidia will be staples in this industry for years to come.
Nebius is still in its early stages and growing at an unbelievable pace.
- 10 stocks we like better than Broadcom ›
Generational investment opportunities don't come around often, but I think that's exactly what we have on our hands right now. Artificial intelligence (AI) is a once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunity, and the effects that it has on the economy and investing in general will be felt for some time.
However, there are still questions surrounding which stocks to invest in, as many of the generative AI companies are still private and aren't open to public investors. Instead, I think investors should look at the companies supplying them with computing components, as they will make money regardless of who the ultimate winner is.
Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »
The three stocks that look like genius buys now are Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO), Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), and Nebius (NASDAQ: NBIS). All three of these stocks have massive and growing revenue streams right now, making them top stock picks in the AI buildout.
Broadcom and Nvidia
Broadcom and Nvidia are competing for the same market space. However, there's a huge opportunity that's large enough for multiple companies to thrive in. McKinsey & Company estimates that cumulative data center expenditures will total $7 trillion by 2030. Nvidia estimates that annual global data center capital expenditures will reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030 as well. Regardless of which estimate you believe, there's a huge opportunity here, and Broadcom and Nvidia are slated to capture a large chunk of the computing power portion of it.
Nvidia makes graphics processing units (GPUs), which are incredibly powerful units and suited for accelerated computing tasks of all varieties. These are the industry standard of AI computing, and it will be nearly impossible to topple Nvidia from this leadership position. However, that's not what Broadcom is trying to do.
Broadcom teams up with a client (often an AI hyperscaler) to design a custom AI chip that is specifically formulated for the workloads it will see. While this makes them inflexible compared to a GPU, it allows them to specialize in the chosen workload, often resulting in better performance at a lower price tag. While Broadcom's custom AI chips aren't applicable for every scenario, they make sense to deploy alongside Nvidia's GPUs.
Both companies see massive growth for the foreseeable future, but the market isn't pricing them that way.
Both stocks are trading at a relatively cheap price tag, using the forward price-to-earnings ratio. However, if you use next fiscal year's projected earnings, they become dirt cheap. The market is really only pricing in a successful 2026. If each company can deliver a strong 2027 as is projected, these stocks are indeed cheap and should be bought with no hesitation.
Nebius
Nebius is a neocloud company that's building out AI computing infrastructure for clients to build their AI applications on. Nvidia backs Nebius, and it has a deal to provide Nebius with the most cutting-edge products before anyone else. This makes Nebius an obvious company to partner with if you're a prospective AI client, which is helping its revenue to soar.
The company is rapidly expanding its data center footprint, increasing from two sites in 2024 to seven in 2025. By the end of 2026, it expects to have 16 data center sites operational worldwide. That explanation is necessary because the demand for its platform is there.
In the fourth quarter, Nebius' core AI revenue rose 802% year over year. By the end of 2026, it expects to have an annual run rate of $7 billion to $9 billion, up from $1.25 billion at the end of 2025. Nebius is growing at an unbelievable pace, yet the stock is heavily selling off thanks to concerns surrounding the AI buildout. With Nebius' stock down more than 20% from its all-time high, now is a perfect time to scoop up shares.
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Keithen Drury has positions in Broadcom, Nebius Group, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends Broadcom. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
AI Talk Show
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"The article mistakes a large addressable market for a cheap stock—none of these three are priced for failure, and Nebius' 802% growth is mathematically unsustainable."
The article conflates 'large TAM' with 'cheap valuation' without showing the math. Yes, $7T cumulative spend by 2030 is real, but NVDA trades at ~30x forward P/E and AVGO ~20x—not 'dirt cheap' by historical standards. The author claims 2027 upside justifies current prices, but doesn't quantify: what EPS growth rate gets NVDA to fair value at 30x? The Nebius bull case rests entirely on Nvidia's backing and early-stage growth rates (802% YoY), which are notoriously unsustainable. Most critically: the article ignores execution risk. Custom chips (AVGO's thesis) require hyperscalers to absorb design/validation costs and lock-in risk—adoption is far from guaranteed.
If AI capex actually hits $3-4T annually by 2030 and NVDA/AVGO capture even 15-20% of semiconductor spend, current multiples compress to 12-15x forward earnings—a genuine bargain. Nebius' Nvidia backing + early-stage growth could justify a 10-year hold despite volatility.
"The valuation thesis for these AI infrastructure plays relies on a linear growth assumption that ignores the inevitable cyclicality and margin pressure from hyperscalers moving toward vertical integration."
The article conflates infrastructure spending with long-term profitability, ignoring the 'trough of disillusionment' risk for AI capex. While NVDA and AVGO are defensive plays due to their moats, the author glosses over the massive execution risk inherent in NBIS’s aggressive data center expansion—scaling from 2 to 16 sites by 2026 is capital-intensive and fraught with supply chain bottlenecks. Furthermore, the claim that these stocks are 'dirt cheap' based on 2027 projections ignores potential margin compression as hyperscalers develop more in-house silicon (ASICs), which directly threatens AVGO’s custom chip margins. Investors are paying for a perfect execution scenario that assumes AI demand remains linear rather than cyclical.
If the hyperscaler capex cycle is merely in the 'early innings' as the author suggests, the current forward earnings multiples actually represent a significant discount to the long-term terminal value of the AI compute layer.
"Forward-multiple “cheapness” and headline growth are not enough without checking earnings-estimate risk and utilization/pricing/competition dynamics that could break the assumed 2026–2027 ramp."
The article’s core thesis is “picks and shovels” for AI capex: AVGO for custom AI ASICs, NVDA for GPUs, and NBIS for neocloud infrastructure—arguing forward P/E implies upside if 2026 succeeds and 2027 executes. My pushback: “cheap on forward P/E” can be a mirage if earnings estimates are too optimistic or margins are cyclical in semis/infrastructure. Also, Nebius’ reported growth (e.g., 802% YoY AI revenue) may reflect small base effects and doesn’t guarantee durable demand beyond early ramps. Missing: competitive intensity (hyperscalers’ in-house chips, pricing pressure) and capital/compute utilization risk (who guarantees payback?).
The bull case could still hold if analyst estimates are conservative and AI workloads scale smoothly, keeping utilization high and margins resilient—then these “cheap” multiples can re-rate quickly.
"Nebius' $7-9B ARR target by end-2026 demands flawless execution in a competitive cloud landscape with slowing AI capex, glossing over profitability and scaling risks."
The article touts AVGO, NVDA, and NBIS as AI steals, citing $7T cumulative data center spend by 2030 and NBIS' 802% YoY Q4 AI revenue surge toward $7-9B ARR by end-2026 via 16 global sites. But NBIS, a neocloud upstart (ex-Yandex international arm), faces massive execution risk scaling from 2 to 16 data centers amid supply shortages and capex scrutiny—hyperscalers like MSFT/AMZN are tempering AI spend guidance. AVGO/NVDA complement each other (ASICs vs GPUs), but forward P/E 'cheapness' hinges on 2027 EPS delivery; any 2026 miss craters multiples. Article omits NBIS' profitability path and geopolitical baggage.
Nvidia's early-access backing could propel NBIS to disrupt established clouds in specialized AI workloads, validating its growth trajectory if demand holds.
"Nebius' growth math works on paper, but hyperscaler willingness to outsource specialized AI workloads at profitable margins is the unproven lynchpin."
ChatGPT flags small-base effects on Nebius' 802% growth—valid concern. But nobody's quantified the denominator: if Q4 2023 AI revenue was ~$87M, then 802% YoY lands ~$785M run-rate by Q4 2024. That's material even if it decelerates 50% by 2026. The real risk isn't the growth rate; it's whether hyperscalers actually pay premium prices for neocloud capacity vs. building in-house. That's the execution gate everyone's dancing around.
"Nebius faces a regulatory and capital-structure ceiling that renders its revenue growth projections irrelevant for long-term equity holders."
Claude is right about the denominator, but misses the capital efficiency trap. Scaling from 2 to 16 data centers requires massive debt or equity dilution, which will crush EPS long before 2027. Gemini correctly flags the 'trough of disillusionment,' but we are ignoring the geopolitical risk inherent in Nebius's origins. If Western hyperscalers treat them as a security risk, that 802% growth hits a hard ceiling regardless of product quality. Execution is secondary to regulatory survival.
"The argument over NBIS financial dilution is under-evidenced; utilization/unit-economics risk is the more direct determinant of whether 2027 EPS makes multiples “cheap.”"
I want to stress-test Gemini’s “dilution/crush EPS before 2027” claim: it assumes financing constraints without citing NBIS’s actual leverage, cash burn, or capex funding plan. That’s plausible, but as presented it’s an assertion. The bigger, more universal risk is utilization risk: even if sites scale, unit economics depend on GPU supply, power costs, and workload scheduling. If utilization lags, the “forward P/E cheapness” can never materialize.
"NBIS' expansion capex (~$3-4B) forces dilution or debt, undermining 2027 valuation thesis."
ChatGPT rightly challenges Gemini's uncited dilution claim, but neither quantifies NBIS capex reality: scaling to 16 sites with $7-9B ARR needs ~$3-4B total spend (GPUs at $40k/H100 equiv for 100k+ units, plus power/infra). Post-$700M PIPE, cash burn accelerates—dilution or debt looms by mid-2026, cratering 'cheap' forward multiples regardless of utilization.
Panel Verdict
No ConsensusThe panel consensus is bearish on Nebius (NBIS) due to massive execution risks, geopolitical concerns, and potential capital inefficiency. AVGO and NVDA are seen as more defensive plays but still face risks like margin compression and cyclical earnings.
Potential upside if AI demand remains linear and Nebius successfully executes its expansion plan.
Geopolitical risk and capital inefficiency in scaling data centers for Nebius, and margin compression for AVGO and NVDA.