AI, trade, Taiwan and climate: what will and won’t be on agenda at Trump-Xi summit

The leaders of the world’s two superpowers are meeting in the US this week. It is Xi Jinping’s first state visit to the US in more than a decade. The last time the Chinese president was hosted in Washington (by Barack Obama in 2015), the issues on the agenda included cybercrime, technology, the climate crisis and human rights. The star of the day was Ne-Yo, who serenaded Xi and his wife, Peng Liyuan, with Peng reportedly singing along at the state dinner.

This time, Xi is meeting Donald Trump, who has overhauled the world order and recalibrated the US-China relationship. Trump is contending with a China that is in a much stronger position than it was 10 years ago. Here are five things to look out for at this week’s US-China summit.

Artificial intelligence

Although AI was surprisingly absent from talks the last time Xi and Trump met, in Beijing in May, it is expected to be high on the agenda this week. There are calls for the two leaders to agree some sort of AI safety framework to prevent the technology – about which there have been dire warnings in recent weeks – from spinning out of human control. But Trump has called warnings about safety a “hoax”, and although Xi has called for “safety and security in AI development”, China sees AI as the key to unlocking its own national potential and bristles at US efforts to contain its progress.

The US treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, recently suggested that the two countries establish a mechanism to communicate on major AI safety issues. Xi and Trump may discuss further details. But Amanda Hsiao, the China director at the Eurasia Group, says: “The question that’s going to raise is just how is it going to be operationalised, and will it be effective. Because the US and China have had a long history of having crisis hotlines, and they haven’t always been effective.”

Trade

The biggest thorn in the US-China relationship is trade. When Trump launched a global trade war last year, with the biggest target being China, it risked bringing the world economy to its knees. China reciprocated with tariffs on US goods approaching 150% and unveiled a host of other retaliatory measures, most notably restricting the export of rare earths that are vital for US manufacturing.

Since then, a temporary truce in the trade war, and Trump’s war in Iran, have stabilised the US-China trading relationship, with the source of global economic pain coming from the Middle East rather than China. But the truce is set to expire in November. With Trump and Xi expected to meet two further times this year, there may not be a trade deal announced at this week’s summit. But although China has weathered the trade war better than expected, with exports to other countries booming, finding a longer-term agreement to restore the flow of goods to China’s biggest market will be a high priority for Xi.

Taiwan

China’s ambassador to the US, Xie Feng, published an article on Wednesday outlining “four red lines” for the summit. First on the list was Taiwan.

Taiwan, a self-governing island that China claims as part of its territory, has become an increasingly sensitive topic for Beijing. China wants to isolate Taiwan on the world stage and put pressure on the US to reduce its support for Taiwan’s defences, both of which would make it easier for it to annex the island. After the May Xi-Trump summit, Trump agreed to delay a $14bn package of weapons sales to Taiwan, calling it “very good negotiating chip”.

Beijing rejects the idea of bargaining over Taiwan, describing it as a domestic Chinese issue. Nevertheless, says William Yang, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, “the Chinese side definitely feels that Trump is a rare US president that might offer a rare window of opportunity for them to influence American policy on Taiwan, specifically on defence support”.

The leaders may discuss conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, but China has been unwilling to get meaningfully involved in peace negotiations.

Human rights

Second on Xie’s list was democracy and human rights. In Trump, Beijing has found a US president who is less interested than any of his predecessors in lecturing China about its human rights record. In 2015, Hillary Clinton, the former secretary of state, called Xi “shameless” for hosting a UN summit on women while “persecuting feminists” at home. Barack Obama, then the US president, skipped Xi’s session.

Trump is unlikely to echo such sentiments, even though some in his inner circle, most notably his secretary of state, Marco Rubio, are sharply critical of China’s policies.

But Trump may raise individual cases. In May he raised the case of Ezra Jin, a detained Christian pastor, which seemed to contribute to Jin’s release from prison weeks later. Yufang Rong, the wife of a US nuclear scientist who has been imprisoned in China since late 2024, said this week that the White House had assured her that Trump would ask Xi to free her husband. Trump may also raise the case of Min Zin, a US expert on Myanmar, who was arrested in China in June.

The most difficult and high-profile case, however, is that of Jimmy Lai, a British pro-democracy activist who was jailed in Hong Kong on national security charges. Despite promising to secure Lai’s release during his presidential campaign in 2024, Trump conceded in May that Beijing was unwilling to budge on Lai’s case, calling it “a tough one”.

Climate crisis

Notably absent from this week’s talks will be any meaningful discussion about the climate crisis. Tackling the climate emergency used to be described as one of the few areas where the US and China could meaningfully cooperate, with China’s huge strides in decarbonising its economy seen as an area where it could show leadership on US-endorsed goals. But Yang says: “The climate conversation is just not really a topic that Trump is interested in talking about.” Not only has Trump withdrawn the US from the Paris agreement but Beijing and Washington are too divided on a host of issues to talk about cooperation. “They are coming into this summit with very little agreement or consensus in common,” says Yang.

Additional research by Yu-chen Li