Anthropic's IPO Was Just Delayed to November. Here's the One Number That Has Me Even More Excited.

Key Points

• Anthropic is reportedly pushing its IPO date back a month.
• It now expects to end the year with an annualized revenue run rate exceeding $110 billion.
• That would compress its valuation multiple to an even more compelling level.
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AI start-up Anthropic recently pushed back its planned IPO date from October to November. The maker of the Claude AI chatbot is still reportedly seeking to raise $100 billion at a $2 trillion valuation. That would make it an even bigger IPO than the record $75 billion raised by SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) at its $1.8 trillion IPO valuation.

Aside from the IPO date, one exciting change is Anthropic's updated annualized revenue expectation, which the company expects will top $110 billion by year-end. That would significantly lower its IPO valuation multiple, especially compared to SpaceX's when it went public earlier this year.

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Anthropic's more down-to-earth valuation

When SpaceX completed its IPO earlier this year, it went public at an out-of-this-world valuation multiple. At nearly $1.8 trillion, the space technology and AI company traded at around 93.6 times sales. For perspective, the S&P 500 traded at about 3.5 times sales, while most investors would consider a 10-times-sales multiple high.

Anthropic has been seeking to top SpaceX's valuation price in its IPO, targeting $2 trillion. Despite that loftier target, the company is seeking a lower valuation multiple. When initial reports surfaced about the $2 trillion IPO valuation target, Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate was around $65 billion. That implied a price-to-sales multiple of 30 times. While that was still high, it wasn't quite shooting for the moon, like SpaceX.

However, with its IPO delayed by a month, the company's valuation multiple is coming down as its revenue expectations rise. Anthropic reportedly now expects its annualized revenue to exceed $110 billion by the end of this year. That's about an 18x revenue multiple at a $2 trillion valuation. While that's still high, it's not as lofty as SpaceX or some other fast-growing public companies.

Why I'm even more excited

I've had my eye on Anthropic's IPO for a while now. I've experienced the power of Claude firsthand professionally and personally. It has become an indispensable tool for me, making me more interested in investing in the company when it goes public.

Its growth has been nothing short of remarkable. Last year, Anthropic generated about $10 billion in revenue. During the second quarter of this year, it posted $11.5 billion in revenue, a 14-fold jump from the prior-year period. Meanwhile, its annualized revenue run rate hit $47 billion in May and is now on track to more than double from there by the end of this year. By 2028, the company projects it will generate between $190 billion and $200 billion in revenue, implying that its price-to-sales multiple will contract to around 10x over the next two years. Revenue growth this fast from such a large base is rare, to say the least.

The company has so much optionality to continue driving robust revenue growth. It sees a total addressable market (TAM) opportunity of $30 trillion, which is larger than the $28.5 trillion TAM SpaceX saw at its IPO. Those numbers showcase just how vast the potential for AI could be in the future.

However, that's not to say either company will capture anywhere near those lofty numbers. The entire GDP of the U.S. economy is currently $32.4 trillion. While AI could significantly boost GDP -- the World Economic Forum estimates it could contribute 14% to global GDP by 2030, or about $15.7 trillion -- AI companies won't capture this entire benefit.

Still, Anthropic is one of the key players in the AI revolution. So, investing in the company at a reasonable valuation would enable IPO investors to participate in more of its future upside.

I'm eagerly awaiting Anthropic's IPO

While Anthropic is pushing its IPO plans back by at least a month, its rapid revenue growth suggests it will end up going public at an even lower valuation multiple. That would make it an even more compelling investment opportunity compared to SpaceX. It's why I'm eagerly awaiting its IPO and hope to buy shares as long as the price remains grounded in reality.

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Matt DiLallo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.