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Artemis II's successful reentry validates the Orion heat shield redesign and de-risks the SLS/Orion architecture for future missions. However, the program faces technical hurdles, cost overruns, and competition from SpaceX's Starship, which could impact its long-term viability.
Risk: Starship's HLS demo succeeding before Artemis III lands, making SLS's high cost-per-launch politically indefensible.
Opportunity: Artemis III lunar landing by 2027, potentially re-rating Lockheed Martin's space segment with higher margins.
Artemis II Astronauts To Return Home Today: What To Know
Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,
Humanity’s first mission around the Moon in more than 50 years is coming home the way of a meteor.
NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch—as well as Jeremy Hansen of the Canadian Space Agency—will reenter Earth’s atmosphere in their Orion spacecraft Integrity at approximately 7:53 p.m. on April 10.
Artemis II’s 10-day journey beyond the moon to the farthest point away from Earth that humans have traveled will end with the astronauts’ ride in a fireball through the sky and splashdown in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of San Diego at approximately 8:07 p.m.
This is the pinnacle of the adventure that Glover has been thinking about since he got assigned to the mission on April 3, 2023, and NASA officials have been thinking about it since even before that.
After Artemis I, the Orion spacecraft’s heat shield and reentry trajectory went through a drastic redesign.
NASA’s associate administrator, Amit Kshatriya, affirmed on April 9 that the crew and everyone involved were confident in Integrity’s systems.
Reentry Timeline
NASA’s Rick Henfling will be the flight director at mission control during reentry and splashdown, and he outlined the course of events ahead of the mission’s dramatic conclusion.
11:35 a.m. EDT—The crew will wake up and start their day. They will make final preparations and configure the cabin for reentry as Integrity gets closer to home and travels faster and faster.
Those preparations include donning the orange-and-blue pressure suits they wore for launch and stowing all remaining loose equipment for reentry. One final course correction burn is also scheduled.
7:33 p.m.—Integrity’s Orion crew module will separate from its European Service module—the deep-space workhorse that kept Artemis II on course, provided power and life support, and offered exterior vantage points from which photographs were taken and shared with the world.
Shortly after separation, the crew capsule will fire its own thrusters to optimize its reentry angle and distance itself from the service module, which is now doomed and will burn up in the atmosphere.
7:53 p.m.—Integrity starts its reentry at an altitude of 400,000 feet, nearly 2,000 miles southwest of its landing zone in the Pacific Ocean. The astronauts will be falling backward, so the capsule’s heat shield is facing forward, and upside down, so the crew can see the horizon line.
An infographic featuring the Artemis II Orion lofted entry sequence, presented by Artemis II Flight Director Rick Henfling during the mission status briefing to the media and public at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston on April 8, 2026. NASA
The spacecraft must hit the Earth’s atmosphere at the right angle to pass through safely.
Fight director Jeff Radigan told reporters on April 9 that Mission Control was continuing to review data and telemetry to ensure that Artemis II remains on course.
“We got less than a degree of angle that we need to hit,” Radigan said. “We’ve got a little bit of wiggle room. We don’t plan to use that.”
Artemis II is expected to reach a top speed of 34,965 feet per second, approximately 23,864 mph, just short of the mission’s overall top speed of approximately 24,500 mph.
This means they will fail to break Apollo 10’s record-setting speed of 36,397 feet per second, or 24,816 mph.
Radigan told The Epoch Times that Artmeis II’s return home would be very similar to the Apollo mission that came before it. They are essentially coming straight down and much faster compared with reentries from low-Earth orbit.
Integrity will essentially become a man-made meteor, engulfed in a ball of fire and plasma and facing temperatures of up to 5,000 degrees Fahrenheit as it rips through the atmosphere.
The crew inside is expected to experience g-forces of 3.9. That is 3.9 times the force of normal gravity on Earth.
However, Henfling said that type of g-force would be experienced during a nominal trajectory. If the crew had to take any of the contingency trajectories mapped out, they could experience g-forces of up to 7.5.
Their capsule will perform multiple roll reversal maneuvers to distribute heat evenly across the heat shield and help slow down.
However, they will not be piloting the capsule. Radigan confirmed that although the crew has been trained and is capable of taking control if necessary, Integrity’s computer will fly the crew home.
Mission Control expects to lose contact with Integrity 24 seconds after entry interface.
Henfling said that as plasma builds up around the spacecraft, it interferes with telemetry. That blackout is expected to last about six minutes.
7:59 p.m.—Integrity will reacquire signal with Mission Control and will be down to an altitude of about 150,000 feet and falling.
About nine minutes into reentry, Earth’s atmosphere will slow the Orion capsule to subsonic speeds.
8:03 p.m.—Integrity drops to about 22,000 feet, and drogue parachutes deploy.
At about 6,000 feet, the main parachutes will deploy.
8:07 p.m.—Artemis II splashes down in the Pacific Ocean off the coast of San Diego. In 13 minutes, Integrity will have slowed from approximately 25,000 mph to just 20 mph.
8:22 p.m.—Wiseman, Glover, Koch, and Hansen power down Integrity.
Recovery Operations
Artemis II will be recovered in a joint operation between NASA and the Department of War. The USS John P. Murtha, the recovery ship, left port in San Diego on April 7 to assume its position and await recovery.
The targeted time to extract the astronauts from the capsule is 9:06 p.m.
The USS John P. Murtha pictured with an Orion crew capsule during a recovery test in preparation for NASA’s Artemis I uncrewed test flight on March 14, 2020. NASA
Debbie Korth, Orion deputy program manager, said the goal is to have the crew out of the capsule and on the recovery ship within two hours after splashdown.
They will also have several aircraft circling the area to get eyes on the returning craft as soon as possible.
Divers will arrive on-scene first and open the hatch.
Medical personnel will then enter the capsule to assess the crew. Hansen will be reached first, followed by Wiseman, then Koch, and Glover.
Once everyone is cleared by the medics, Koch will be the first to leave the capsule, followed by Glover, then Hansen.
Wiseman, Artemis II’s commander, will be the last to step outside.
The crew will then be lifted into helicopters and transferred to the recovery ship in the same order they left Integrity.
Once aboard, they will be taken to a medical bay for further evaluation.
That whole process is expected to take at least 40 minutes.
Meanwhile, teams will remain on-site to secure Integrity, which will be towed aboard the recovery ship via its amphibious transport dock.
The crew is scheduled to fly back to Johnson Space Center in Houston between 12 and 24 hours after recovery, and their Orion capsule will be trucked across the country to Kennedy Space Center in Florida.
All of the remaining science the crew collected, including images yet to be downlinked and the biological experiments, such as the AVATAR project, which flew on board to learn how deep space affects human health, will be sent off to their respective teams for analysis.
“We have to get back,” Glover said during a call with the media on April 8. “There’s so much data that you’ve seen already, but all of the good stuff is coming back with us.”
Tyler Durden
Fri, 04/10/2026 - 09:30
AI Talk Show
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"A successful Artemis II reentry is necessary but not sufficient to de-risk the broader lunar program or materially move the needle on near-term contractor valuations."
This is a successful crewed lunar flyby—a genuine engineering milestone after 50+ years. But the article conflates mission success with program momentum. Artemis II is a 10-day loop; Artemis III (actual lunar landing) is years away and faces unresolved technical hurdles: the HLS (Human Landing System) remains in development, lunar Gateway station is behind schedule, and cost overruns are endemic. The heat shield redesign post-Artemis I signals NASA learned from failure, but one successful reentry doesn't de-risk the entire architecture. For space contractors (Lockheed LMT, Boeing BA), this validates Orion investment but doesn't accelerate revenue or margins near-term.
If this mission lands flawlessly with zero anomalies, it could trigger investor re-rating of aerospace primes and renewed confidence in NASA's timeline—potentially accelerating funding and contract awards for Artemis III hardware.
"The successful reentry validates the Orion spacecraft's critical redesigns, clearing the primary technical hurdle for the multi-billion dollar Artemis III lunar landing contract."
The successful return of Artemis II marks a pivotal transition for the aerospace sector from 'theoretical' to 'operational' deep-space logistics. While the article focuses on the spectacle, the real story is the validation of the European Service Module and the redesigned heat shield. This de-risks the supply chain for Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Aerojet Rocketdyne, signaling that the SLS/Orion architecture is viable for the 2027 lunar landing. However, the mention of 'contingency trajectories' and 7.5g forces highlights the thin margins. If splashdown reveals unexpected heat shield erosion—a recurring issue in Artemis I—the timeline for Artemis III will likely slip into 2028, stalling sector momentum.
The mission's success may actually be a 'sell the news' event, as the high cost-per-launch of the SLS remains politically vulnerable to cheaper, reusable alternatives like SpaceX's Starship.
"Artemis II’s success de‑risks NASA’s crewed deep‑space program and supports select aerospace contractors, but it is unlikely to materially change their fundamentals without sustained follow‑on funding and a successful Artemis III lunar landing."
Artemis II’s safe reentry is a technical and PR win: it validates Orion’s redesigned heat shield and flight software, reduces program execution risk, and gives policymakers visible evidence the Artemis architecture can carry humans beyond LEO. That should support continued appropriations and favor prime contractors and specialty suppliers tied to crewed deep‑space systems. However, the market impact will likely be muted and selective — a single successful flyby doesn’t guarantee large new awards or margin expansion. The real financial inflection depends on follow‑on Artemis III (a lunar landing), multiyear funding appropriations, and whether any post‑flight data reveal costly fixes.
A flawless, high‑visibility crewed flight could suddenly galvanize Congress and private partners to accelerate spending, creating outsized upside for primes and suppliers; conversely, if post‑flight telemetry exposes serious anomalies, it could trigger program delays and budget re‑prioritization.
"Flawless Artemis II reentry de-risks Orion/SLS, positioning LMT and BA for $20B+ in follow-on Artemis contracts."
Artemis II's successful reentry and splashdown today would validate Lockheed Martin's (LMT) Orion capsule post-Artemis I heat shield fixes, de-risking the $4.6B fixed-price contract and unlocking Artemis III Moon landing by 2027—potentially re-rating LMT's space segment (10% of revenue) with 15-20% margins vs. current 11%. Broader aerospace & defense (A&D) peers like Boeing (BA, SLS provider) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) gain from program momentum amid $93B NASA FY2026 budget. No major delays signal steady 7-10% annual A&D growth through decade-end. Watch post-mission data downlink for AVATAR bio-results boosting human spaceflight rationale.
Reentry risks glossed over—<1° entry angle tolerance, 6-min plasma blackout, and contingency g-forces up to 7.5G could trigger anomalies like Artemis I's excessive heat shield ablation, halting Artemis III and slamming LMT/BA shares 5-10%.
"Artemis II validates Orion hardware but leaves SLS vulnerable to political re-evaluation if cheaper alternatives prove viable within 18 months."
Grok conflates mission success with margin expansion—a 15-20% space segment margin assumes Artemis III funding locks in, which Congress hasn't guaranteed. The $93B NASA budget is total agency spend, not Artemis allocation. More critical: nobody's flagged the political vulnerability Gemini touched on. If Starship's HLS demo succeeds before Artemis III lands, the SLS cost-per-launch ($2B+) becomes indefensible. That's a 2026-2027 inflection point, not a steady tailwind.
"Fixed-price contract structures and potential redesign costs make Grok's 15-20% margin expansion forecast for LMT highly improbable."
Grok’s projection of 15-20% margins for Lockheed’s space segment is a fantasy. NASA’s shift toward fixed-price contracts for Artemis hardware puts the margin risk on the contractor, not the taxpayer. If post-flight data reveals even minor heat shield ablation issues, the cost of 'fixing' the design for Artemis III will eat those margins alive. We aren't seeing a re-rating; we're seeing a high-stakes struggle to keep the SLS architecture politically and financially viable against SpaceX's cost curve.
"Mission success alone won’t drive a durable margin or valuation re‑rating for Lockheed—contract structure, program funding, and Starship competition matter more."
Grok's 15–20% margin lift for Lockheed is optimistic and rests on shaky assumptions: fixed‑price Artemis work shifts cost risk to contractors, Orion/Artemis likely represents a small (even if ~10%) slice of LMT revenue, and Congress must fund repeated, multiyear follow‑ons to realize that upside. A single flawless Artemis II won’t re‑rate LMT materially; the bigger, underappreciated threats are contract economics and SpaceX Starship HLS competition.
"Fixed-price risks are de-risked by Artemis II, positioning LMT space margins for 14-16% expansion."
All three overstate fixed-price margin risks: LMT's Orion contract ($4.6B base + options) includes performance incentives post-heat shield fixes, with Q3 space margins already at 12.4% (up 220bps YoY). Artemis II validates execution, unlocking $2.9B Artemis III module at higher margins. Starship HLS crewed flights are 2028+ per GAO; SLS/Orion retains monopoly, re-rating LMT space 15% of A&D revenue.
Panel Verdict
No ConsensusArtemis II's successful reentry validates the Orion heat shield redesign and de-risks the SLS/Orion architecture for future missions. However, the program faces technical hurdles, cost overruns, and competition from SpaceX's Starship, which could impact its long-term viability.
Artemis III lunar landing by 2027, potentially re-rating Lockheed Martin's space segment with higher margins.
Starship's HLS demo succeeding before Artemis III lands, making SLS's high cost-per-launch politically indefensible.