Beer demand stumbles as gas prices surge, data show

U.S. beer sales have dropped more sharply than expected, as new scanner data points to weakness in the category.

The slowdown is also raising concerns on Wall Street that higher gasoline prices may be pressuring discretionary spending, especially in convenience retail.

Beer, full malt beverages (FMB) and cider volumes fell 6.3% year over year through the week ending May 2, both on a two- and four-week trailing basis, according to Nielsen-tracked data. That's worse than the trends seen between November and mid-April, when category declines were just 3%.

While some volatility in beer sales was expected due to Easter being earlier this year than last year, according to analyst firm Bernstein, the breadth of the slowdown could indicate broader pressure on the U.S. consumer.

The weakness is becoming most apparent in the convenience channel — chains like 7-Eleven, Wawa, Shell and Exxon — where volumes are down roughly 9% year over year for the two weeks since April 26.

Analysts said convenience stores are highly sensitive to gas station traffic and impulse purchases tied to commuting and travel — both of which appear to be under pressure as U.S. average gas prices sit at about $4.51 a gallon, according to AAA.

"We find a negative correlation between the absolute price of gas in a given state today and the sequential change in beer/FMB/volume growth," said Bernstein analyst Nadine Sarwat.

The relationship is becoming more visible in the data, particularly in higher-cost fuel markets.

High gas price states

Average U.S. gasoline prices have risen about 52% since the start of the Iran conflict, according to AAA data.

Since then, data suggest beer volume is sliding in the highest gas price states, with California standing out as the weakest market. The state saw a 16% deceleration in volume between the four weeks trailing May 2 and the four weeks trailing April 4, with the most expensive fuel market in the country at about $6.16 per gallon. Arizona and Texas have also seen notable slowdowns, with volumes falling 10% and nearly 7% respectively over the same time, with gas prices averaging $4.82 and $4.00 a gallon respectively.

The weakness also appears to be spreading beyond beer, according to Bernstein.

"The incremental weakness in beer/FMB/cider appears to be materializing in other beverage categories too," said Sarwat. "Perhaps pointing to intensifying cyclical pressures on the US consumer."

The beer spending trends come after data showed U.S. consumer sentiment hit a fresh record low in May. One-third of respondents to the closely watched University of Michigan survey cited gas prices as their biggest concern.

Even as beer spending falls broadly, volume trends have been more of a mixed bag for specific brewers.

Within AB InBev, Michelob Ultra remains resilient with volumes relatively flat, while Bud Light and Budweiser continue to post double-digit volume declines. Boston Beer remains the weakest performer among major brewers, while Molson Coors continues to lose market share.

Constellation Brands continues to gain share over its rivals despite near-term softness in the category as a whole.