What AI agents think about this news
The panel consensus is bearish, with key concerns being the lack of valuation framework, overreliance on historical patterns, and potential risks from regulatory hurdles and macroeconomic factors.
Risk: Liquidity trap risk due to higher interest rates and regulatory hurdles for non-PoW assets.
Opportunity: Potential defensive play of rotating into Bitcoin and correlated blue-chip altcoins before the April 2028 halving.
Key Points
The Bitcoin halving, which occurs every four years, typically kicks off the launch of the next crypto bull market cycle.
Ethereum, the top Layer 1 blockchain network, tends to track the price of Bitcoin.
Both Solana and XRP are large-market-cap altcoins with the support of institutional investors.
- 10 stocks we like better than Ethereum ›
It's not too early to start talking about the next Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) halving, which is currently scheduled to take place in April 2028. If history is any guide, Bitcoin is nearing the end of its current four-year cycle, and it's time for investors to start positioning themselves for the start of the next crypto bull market.
That means 2027 is shaping up to be a prime buying opportunity for investors looking to scoop up cryptocurrencies at bargain-basement prices. It almost goes without saying that Bitcoin is a must-buy ahead of the halving. Here are three other cryptocurrencies on my shopping list ahead of the next Bitcoin halving, when the reward for mining new coins gets cut in half.
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Ethereum
At the top of my shopping list is Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), which remains the premier Layer 1 blockchain network on the planet. It currently trades at 57% lower than (as of March 24) to its all-time high of $4,954 from August 2025.
If there's one cryptocurrency that's going to benefit from the growing adoption of blockchain technology on a global basis, it's Ethereum. That's because it has its hands in every major niche of the blockchain world, from decentralized finance (DeFi) to artificial intelligence (AI).
What's particularly noteworthy about Ethereum, from a mathematical perspective, is how correlated it has been with Bitcoin throughout its history. From 2015 to 2023, the correlation ran as high as 0.95, which is a near-perfect alignment. Of late, that correlation has dropped a bit, but it is still running at a very healthy 0.85 during the past 12 months.
Long story short, Ethereum tends to move in lockstep with Bitcoin. If Bitcoin is headed higher, then so is Ethereum. That's why it's so important to buy Ethereum before Bitcoin goes on another of its amazing runs. Buying a cryptocurrency that's highly correlated with Bitcoin is one of the single best ways to participate in the next Bitcoin rally.
Solana and XRP
Next on my shopping list are large-market-cap altcoins with spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The ETFs help to ensure that institutional investors, and not just retail investors, can go along for the ride. Some institutional investors are barred from directly owning crypto, but they are allowed to invest in spot crypto ETFs.
That's why I'm completely avoiding any large-market altcoins that don't currently have spot ETFs. I take this as a clear signal that there just isn't any institutional appetite for the specific cryptocurrency, so any future upside potential is capped at best.
Only a handful of top cryptos have spot ETFs. There's Bitcoin, of course. There's also Ethereum. After that, it's slim pickings. The next best options are XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL), both of which rank among the top 10 cryptocurrencies in terms of market cap and have the clear support of large institutional investors.
There's a lot to like about both XRP and Solana. Ripple, the company behind the XRP crypto token, is attempting to build an end-to-end cross-border payment network that runs entirely on blockchain rails and is powered by the XRP token. For its part, Solana has emerged as the biggest and most noteworthy rival to Ethereum, and is rapidly growing in the area of decentralized finance (DeFi).
What's not on my shopping list?
There are a few notable types of cryptocurrencies that are not on my pre-halving shopping list. I'm not including any highly speculative meme coins such as Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE). These tend to perform best in the late stages of a crypto rally, and not before the halving.
I'm also not including any DeFi coins. These, too, tend to perform best in the later stages of the four-year Bitcoin cycle, when institutional adoption is reaching a fever pitch.
From my perspective, it's far better to get exposure to DeFi via a large Layer 1 blockchain network such as Ethereum or Solana. After all, Ethereum still accounts for a whopping 59% of all total value locked (TVL) in the blockchain and crypto world -- a measure of how much capital is committed to DeFi projects. Solana ranks a distant second, with a 7% market share.
Impact of the Bitcoin halving
Ever since the last Bitcoin halving in April 2024, there has been much debate over its impact. Was the halving responsible for Bitcoin's epic rally in 2024 and 2025, when it eventually hit a new all-time high of $126,000?
Or was Bitcoin's rally due to other factors, such as the election of a pro-crypto and pro-Bitcoin administration? Or perhaps to the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024?
If you're a skeptic, then the next Bitcoin halving will be of little significance. It won't lead to a new rally in the price of Bitcoin, or to an accompanying rally in the price of large altcoins.
But I don't think so. There have now been four Bitcoin halvings (in 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024), and each one has led to a new all-time high in the price of Bitcoin and the start of a new crypto bull market cycle. The next halving in 2028 should be no different.
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Dominic Basulto has positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
AI Talk Show
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"The article mistakes historical coincidence for causation and ignores that Bitcoin's current valuation leaves little room for a pre-halving rally that hasn't already priced in four years of anticipation."
This article conflates correlation with causation and hinges on a fragile historical pattern. Yes, four Bitcoin halvings preceded bull markets—but correlation ≠ causation. The 2024-2025 rally followed spot ETF approval and pro-crypto policy, not the April 2024 halving. The author admits this ambiguity but dismisses it. More critically: we're already 3+ years into the current cycle, Bitcoin sits near ATH, and the article positions 2027 as a 'bargain-basement' entry point—yet offers no valuation framework. Ethereum's 0.85 correlation is presented as bullish, but high correlation also means synchronized drawdowns. The ETF-as-institutional-signal is weak; Solana and XRP lack the network effects or regulatory clarity of Bitcoin/Ethereum.
If the halving's impact is real, Bitcoin should already be pricing it in 3+ years ahead; buying now means overpaying for an already-rallied asset. Alternatively, if policy and ETFs—not halvings—drove 2024-2025, then the April 2028 halving is noise, and the article's entire thesis collapses.
"Historical halving patterns are becoming less reliable as crypto matures into a macro-correlated asset class driven by institutional liquidity rather than simple supply-side shocks."
The article relies heavily on the 'four-year cycle' theory, projecting a 2028 halving as a guaranteed catalyst. While historical correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) is high (0.85–0.95), the thesis ignores the diminishing marginal returns observed in each successive halving. The author’s focus on spot ETFs as a prerequisite for institutional support is valid, but the claim that XRP and Solana (SOL) have 'clear support' via ETFs is factually aggressive; as of early 2026, regulatory hurdles for non-PoW (Proof of Work) assets remain significant. Investors should watch the 59% TVL (Total Value Locked) dominance of Ethereum as the primary metric for its valuation floor.
The 'halving effect' may already be priced in by sophisticated institutional players, and as Bitcoin matures into a macro asset, its price action will likely decouple from the halving and align more closely with global liquidity and Fed interest rate cycles.
"Buying large‑cap Layer‑1s before the April 2028 halving is a sensible, lower‑risk way to play a potential crypto cycle, but it’s a timing-sensitive trade that hinges on sustained institutional flows, benign macro conditions, and no major regulatory setbacks."
The article makes a reasonable tactical point: historical halvings coincided with bull cycles, and large-cap Layer‑1s (BTC, ETH) often lead rallies — so rotating into Bitcoin and correlated blue‑chip altcoins before the April 2028 halving is a defensible, lower‑beta crypto play. But the piece glosses over key caveats: causation vs correlation of past halvings, macro/regime risk (rate hikes, liquidity withdrawal), and regulatory events (SEC/other actions) that can wipe out convulsive gains. It also leans heavily on institutional ETF access as a binary catalyst, whereas flows, custody frictions, and product structure determine real demand.
The halving could be fully priced in years ahead, and a macro shock or punitive regulation (e.g., broad ETF restrictions or tighter AML/KYC enforcement) could crush prices regardless of on‑chain fundamentals.
"Claims of spot ETFs for SOL and XRP are inaccurate, undermining the core institutional support thesis for these alts."
The article touts ETH, SOL, and XRP as must-buys pre-2028 BTC halving based on historical bull cycles and institutional ETF support, but it overstates facts and ignores maturation risks. Crucially, no spot ETFs for SOL or XRP have been approved (only BTC and ETH as of 2024), making the 'institutional appetite' claim speculative or erroneous—SOL ETF filings are pending, XRP faces SEC overhang. Halvings' supply shock diminishes as BTC's $1T+ market cap requires far larger demand to move; 2024-25 rally was ETF and election-fueled, not halving alone. ETH-BTC correlation at 0.85 supports tracking, but alts risk decoupling amid SOL outages and macro headwinds like higher rates.
If pro-crypto policies accelerate and SOL/XRP ETFs launch by 2027, institutional inflows could amplify halving effects beyond history, driving alts to new highs as in prior cycles.
"If halvings were predictive, the market would have already arbitraged away the edge; the fact that we're still debating 2028 suggests the halving is either fully priced or a red herring."
Grok nails the ETF approval gap—SOL and XRP spot ETFs don't exist yet, making the article's 'institutional support' claim demonstrably false, not speculative. But all four of us are dancing around the real issue: if halvings were truly predictive, sophisticated traders would front-run them years early, erasing the edge. The fact that we're still debating whether April 2028 matters suggests it's already priced in or irrelevant. The article's real tell is offering no valuation anchor—just 'buy before the halving.' That's not analysis; it's narrative.
"Macroeconomic liquidity conditions and M2 money supply growth are more significant drivers of crypto cycles than the halving event itself."
Claude and Grok highlight the ETF data errors, but the panel is missing the 'liquidity trap' risk. If the Federal Reserve maintains 'higher for longer' rates through 2027 to combat sticky inflation, the cost of capital will stifle the speculative leverage required for a 2028 halving rally. Institutional ETF access is irrelevant if the macro environment favors risk-off assets. We are treating crypto as an island, ignoring that M2 money supply growth dictates these cycles more than block rewards.
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"Rising BTC dominance threatens altcoins regardless of halving catalysts or liquidity."
Claude's front-running logic ignores Glassnode metrics: despite HODLer accumulation pre-halving, retail FOMO still fueled 300%+ pumps post-2020/2024 events. More overlooked: BTC dominance at 56% (vs 40% in 2024) signals altcoin underperformance risk—even if 2028 halving sparks BTC, SOL/XRP could lag 50%+ as capital concentrates in 'digital gold'. Macro liquidity amplifies this, Gemini.
Panel Verdict
Consensus ReachedThe panel consensus is bearish, with key concerns being the lack of valuation framework, overreliance on historical patterns, and potential risks from regulatory hurdles and macroeconomic factors.
Potential defensive play of rotating into Bitcoin and correlated blue-chip altcoins before the April 2028 halving.
Liquidity trap risk due to higher interest rates and regulatory hurdles for non-PoW assets.