By Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq ·
What AI agents think about this news
The panel consensus is bearish on both Joby and Archer, citing significant risks including regulatory delays, infrastructure bottlenecks, high capital expenditure, and speculative revenue forecasts. The eVTOL sector's uncertain timeline and high multiples leave little margin for error.
Risk: Regulatory delays and infrastructure bottlenecks, including vertiport capex commitments and power-grid contracts, pose significant risks to the 2028 revenue forecasts for both companies.
Opportunity: None identified
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) and Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) both produce electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. These sleek electric aircraft are greener and easier to land in dense urban areas than conventional helicopters.
But over the past 12 months, shares of Joby and Archer have both declined by more than 50%. Investors shunned both stocks for similar reasons. First, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) hasn't approved either company's eVTOLs for commercial flights in the U.S. yet. Second, inflation and fears of rate hikes are compressing their valuations. Should you buy either of these out-of-favor eVTOL stocks as the bulls look the other way?
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Joby's S4 and Archer's Midnight both carry a single pilot and four passengers. The S4 travels up to 150 miles on a single charge at a maximum speed of 200 miles per hour. The Midnight only has a range of 100 miles with a maximum speed of 150 miles per hour.
The S4 travels faster and farther than the Midnight by using single-tilt-rotor propellers for both lifting and cruising. The Midnight uses two separate propellers for those tasks, which makes it heavier, slower, and less energy-efficient. Joby is also developing a hydrogen-powered version of the S4, which could be charged much faster than the battery-powered one, but Archer isn't.
Joby aims to become a vertically integrated "transportation as a service" business that manufactures, owns, and operates its own air taxi network. Archer is an original equipment manufacturer (OEM) that sells most of its aircraft to third-party fleets. Joby's supply chain is also tighter than Archer's because it uses more first-party components.
Joby and Archer both work with the Department of Defense (DoD), and they have some big commercial investors and partners. Joby's top backers include Toyota, Delta Air Lines, and Uber. Archer's partners include Stellantis and United Airlines. Toyota and Stellantis will help them manufacture their eVTOLs, while Delta and United plan to use those eVTOLs to provide airport-to-home air taxi services as add-ons to their commercial flights. Uber plans to integrate Joby's air taxi flights directly into its platform via its upcoming "Uber Air" service. Both companies plan to launch their first commercial flights in the U.S. and the UAE.
Joby is farther along in the FAA's multi-stage approval process for its first commercial flights than Archer. Joby is also generating more revenue than Archer today through its Blade air-taxi helicopter subsidiary, which it acquired last year. Here's what analysts believe will happen over the next few years, assuming the FAA finally approves both companies' commercial flights.
| Company | 2026 Revenue | 2027 Revenue | 2028 Revenue | |---|---|---|---| | | $113.9 million | $221.1 million | $456.8 million | | | $10.0 miillion | $85.9 million | $481.3 million |
We should take those estimates with a grain of salt, but Joby should grow at a more stable rate as it establishes itself as a tightly managed, first-party eVTOL producer. Archer's sales could also soar over the next few years, but only if it wins more OEM orders from other companies.
Joby and Archer trade at 15x and 7x their projected 2028 sales, respectively. Joby is certainly the pricier stock, but I believe its technological advantages, faster regulatory progress, and tighter business model all justify that higher valuation. Joby's higher revenues and liquidity today also make it a safer investment in this choppy market. Both stocks could eventually soar as the nascent eVTOL market expands, but Joby is clearly a better buy than Archer right now.
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Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines, Stellantis, and Under Armour. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"JOBY's advantages are real but its 15x 2028 sales valuation already prices in most of the upside while glossing over shared regulatory and commercialization risks that could derail both names."
The article positions JOBY as the superior eVTOL play over ACHR due to longer range, faster FAA progress, vertical integration, and near-term revenue from Blade. However, both trade at sky-high multiples (15x and 7x 2028 sales) on forecasts that remain highly speculative. The eVTOL sector faces regulatory, certification, infrastructure, and scaling risks that the piece downplays; 2026-28 revenue estimates could easily slip 50%+ if timelines slide. JOBY's richer valuation leaves less margin of safety if the entire nascent industry is delayed by 2-3 years.
If Archer secures large fleet orders from United and others while Joby struggles with vertical integration execution and higher capex burn, ACHR's lower multiple could deliver superior returns as the OEM model scales faster than the article assumes.
"The market is significantly underestimating the capital-intensive infrastructure requirements that will likely force both companies to dilute shareholders heavily before achieving meaningful commercial scale."
The article frames this as a binary choice between Joby and Archer, but it ignores the existential 'cert-risk' common to both. Joby’s vertical integration is a double-edged sword; while it offers control, it creates a massive capital expenditure (CapEx) burden compared to Archer’s OEM model. With Joby trading at 15x 2028 sales, the market is pricing in near-flawless execution. However, the real bottleneck isn't just FAA certification—it's the 'vertiport' infrastructure and power grid capacity required for high-frequency operations. Investors are betting on the aircraft, but the business model relies on a municipal infrastructure revolution that is years behind the hardware development cycle.
If Joby successfully achieves FAA Type Certification, their first-mover advantage and proprietary network could create a 'moat' that makes them the de facto standard, effectively pricing out competitors like Archer.
"Both eVTOL stocks are pricing in FAA approval and revenue ramps that remain speculative; Joby's premium valuation is justified only if regulatory and operational execution both succeed, which the article treats as inevitable rather than contingent."
The article's valuation comparison—15x vs. 7x 2028 sales—obscures a critical risk: both revenue forecasts are speculative and hinge entirely on FAA approval that hasn't materialized. Joby's 'technological advantage' (tilt-rotor vs. dual-prop) is real but marginal; the real moat would be regulatory clearance and operational scaling, neither guaranteed. The Blade acquisition generates current revenue but masks that Joby's core eVTOL business is pre-commercial. Archer's 7x multiple reflects appropriate skepticism, not undervaluation. The article conflates 'farther along' with 'likely to succeed'—a dangerous assumption in aerospace regulation.
Joby's partnerships with Toyota, Delta, and Uber represent genuine optionality and distribution that Archer lacks; if FAA approval comes in 2025-26, Joby's head start in manufacturing and network integration could justify 15x despite execution risk.
"FAA certification timing and real-world monetization of the air-taxi model are the gatekeepers; without timely approvals and dependable demand, the lofty 2028 revenue targets do not justify the valuations."
The article leans bullish on Joby vs Archer based on regulatory progress and a tighter, more integrated model, but the eVTOL path remains capital-intensive and uncertain. FAA certification is still multi-year and could slip; both firms face heavy cash burn to scale, and Archer’s OEM-only approach heightens partner risk. Joby’s Blade unit adds revenue but may not offset ongoing R&D and manufacturing costs. The revenue table in the piece is misformatted and the 2028 targets imply steep multiples that look fragile if pilots, reliability, or DoD funding falter. In short, upside hinges on near-perfect execution in a nascent market, which feels unlikely in the near term.
The bears could be wrong if FAA cert lands on schedule and major partners (Uber/Delta or others) scale quickly; that would re-rate both names on real revenue traction. Still, the core risk is timing and monetization in a market that has not proved itself at scale.
"Both JOBY and ACHR 2028 revenue models require unprecedented public infrastructure spending that has not been budgeted or announced."
Nobody has flagged that both companies' 2028 sales forecasts embed assumptions of 500+ aircraft in service at utilization rates only achievable with massive public subsidy for vertiports. Gemini's infrastructure point is directionally right but understates the fiscal reality: without DoD or municipal capex, the power-grid and landing-site bottlenecks make even 30% of projected 2028 revenue improbable.
"Urban acoustic limitations and zoning litigation represent an overlooked existential risk that will delay commercial scaling regardless of FAA certification status."
Grok and Gemini are right about the infrastructure bottleneck, but you are all ignoring the 'noise' problem. Even if the FAA clears the aircraft, the acoustic profile of these vehicles in dense urban environments will trigger massive 'NIMBY' litigation. This isn't just a power grid issue; it’s a zoning and public-acceptance hurdle that neither Joby nor Archer has adequately priced into their timelines. Regulatory approval is the floor, not the ceiling, for commercial viability.
"Noise is a real friction, but the binding constraint is vertiport capex and power infrastructure—neither company has disclosed concrete commitments, making 2028 revenue targets speculative theater."
Gemini's noise litigation risk is real but potentially overstated—LA, NYC, and Singapore have already begun NIMBY battles around drone corridors and survived. The actual bottleneck is simpler: neither firm has disclosed vertiport capex commitments or power-grid contracts. Without binding infrastructure deals, 2028 revenue forecasts are fiction. Grok's subsidy dependency point is the harder truth—these aren't self-sustaining businesses at current unit economics.
"Supply-chain constraints could derail ramp timelines and trigger a faster-than-expected re-rating, beyond the infra/NIMBY risks discussed."
One angle no one really tests: supply-chain risk for tilt-rotor eVTOLs. Joby and Archer depend on a handful of specialized suppliers for propulsion, gearboxes, and batteries; a delay at any key supplier, or export controls, could push 2026-28 ramp back 12–24 months. That capex-heavy push is not just a regulatory hurdle, but a manufacturing risk that could erode margins and a re-rating far quicker than lower NIMBY risk.
The panel consensus is bearish on both Joby and Archer, citing significant risks including regulatory delays, infrastructure bottlenecks, high capital expenditure, and speculative revenue forecasts. The eVTOL sector's uncertain timeline and high multiples leave little margin for error.
None identified
Regulatory delays and infrastructure bottlenecks, including vertiport capex commitments and power-grid contracts, pose significant risks to the 2028 revenue forecasts for both companies.