BigBear.ai vs. Cerebras Systems: Which Technology Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?

Key Points

• BigBear.ai provides critical decision intelligence for the U.S. federal government but faces significant customer concentration.
• Cerebras Systems delivers massive scale AI infrastructure and recently reached net income profitability in 2025.
• Which artificial intelligence stock is the better choice for your portfolio today?
• 10 stocks we like better than BigBear.ai ›

The artificial intelligence boom has moved beyond simple chatbots and into the core of global infrastructure. Investors must now decide whether to bet on specialized software providers like BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) or hardware pioneers like Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ:CBRS).

BigBear.ai focuses on decision intelligence, helping government and defense agencies make sense of complex data environments. Cerebras Systems takes a different path by building massive, wafer-scale chips designed to handle the most demanding AI workloads in the world.

The case for BigBear.ai

BigBear.ai provides decision intelligence solutions primarily for federal and defense agencies. The company uses AI to help customers navigate global supply chains, manage autonomous systems, and bolster cybersecurity efforts. In its latest annual report filed for the period ending December 31, 2025, the company noted it had 579 employees, many of whom hold high-level security clearances.

A significant portion of revenue comes from the U.S. federal government. In 2025, customers contributing more than 10% of revenue accounted for approximately 51% of total sales, or nearly $65 million. Customer concentration like this adds a layer of risk to the business, as these contracts can be terminated at the government's convenience. BigBear.ai is attempting to mitigate this by expanding into commercial markets like manufacturing and digital identity.

In FY 2025, revenue reached roughly $127.7 million, representing a decline of close to 19.3% compared to the prior year. The company reported a net loss of approximately $293.9 million for the period, resulting in a net margin of negative 230.2%. This performance follows a trend of operating losses and non-cash impairment charges in previous years.

As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the company reported a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.0x. This metric compares total debt to shareholder equity, suggesting the company has very little debt relative to its equity base. The current ratio stands at approximately 1.8x, which measures the ability to pay short-term obligations with current assets. Free cash flow was negative $46.3 million, which calculates cash from operations minus capital expenditures.

The case for Cerebras Systems

Cerebras Systems builds specialized AI infrastructure that challenges traditional chip designs. Its core product is a wafer-scale engine, a massive chip that offers significantly more processing power than standard components found among semiconductor stocks. The company serves diverse sectors including medical research, energy, and agentic AI through both hardware sales and cloud offerings.

In FY 2025, revenue reached nearly $510.0 million, which is a significant increase of roughly 75.7% year over year. The company achieved a net income of approximately $237.8 million for the year. This resulted in an operating net margin of close to 46.6%, a sharp turnaround from the net loss reported in fiscal year 2024.

As of its December 2025 balance sheet, the current ratio was approximately 2.1x. This indicates a healthy ability to cover short-term liabilities with current assets. The debt-to-equity ratio was reported at -0.5x, meaning total liabilities exceed shareholder equity. Free cash flow was negative $392.8 million for the year, as the company continues to invest heavily in its hardware production and infrastructure expansion.

Risk profile comparison

BigBear.ai faces a material class action lawsuit related to previously disclosed accounting errors and the need to restate multiple years of financial statements. It is also subject to significant revenue concentration within the public sector, making it susceptible to government funding fluctuations. Furthermore, the company has a history of operating losses and has recently recognized substantial non-cash goodwill and asset impairment charges.

Cerebras Systems faces intense competition from established giants like Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) who are developing their own internal AI hardware. While Cerebras has unique technology, it must maintain high research and development spending to keep pace with industry leaders. The company also deals with the capital-intensive nature of semiconductor manufacturing, which can lead to significant cash burn even when revenue is growing rapidly.

Valuation comparison

Cerebras Systems carries a much higher valuation premium than BigBear.ai, reflecting its faster revenue growth and recent turn toward net income profitability.

| Metric | BigBear.ai | Cerebras Systems | |---|---|---| | Forward P/E | N/A | N/A | | P/S ratio | 10.0x | 70.7x |

Valuation metrics sourced from Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) and may differ from other data providers.

A Forward P/E ratio compares a stock price to future earnings estimates, while the P/S ratio measures market value against sales over the past twelve months.

Which stock would I buy in 2026?

I'd go with Cerebras, though neither of these companies is a comfortable pick right now. Both are unprofitable and asking investors to bet on technologies still proving themselves commercially.

Cerebras has built something technically difficult to replicate. Its wafer-scale chips are among the fastest AI training architectures available, and a multi-billion dollar compute partnership with G42, one of the most well-funded AI companies in the world, signals serious institutional confidence in what it is building. Revenue nearly doubled year over year after going public. The stock has fallen since its IPO, partly because scaling a hardware business is expensive, and the costs of building out cloud capacity are now showing up in the financials. That's a painful but arguably necessary phase for a hardware company at this stage.

BigBear.ai has government contracts that are hard to displace, but the business has serious vulnerabilities. Revenue declined last year, losses are widening, and a single customer accounts for roughly half of total revenue. Losing or significantly shrinking that one relationship could be devastating for the business.

Between these two speculative bets, Cerebras has the stronger technology and the faster growth trajectory right now, which is why it's my pick.

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Sara Appino has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.