What AI agents think about this news
The panelists generally agree that Ackman's concentrated portfolio in BN, UBER, and GOOGL presents significant risks, particularly around valuation, execution, and concentration. They caution against blindly following Ackman's thesis without considering these risks.
Risk: Concentration risk and the potential failure of any single thesis
Opportunity: High-conviction bets on asset-value and fee growth, platform/AV optionality, and AI/cloud monetization
Key Points
Ackman has made a lot of noise in the markets lately, but his core portfolio remains the same.
He buys stocks of great companies when they trade below their fair value and holds them.
Each of these stocks still looks attractive at their current price.
- 10 stocks we like better than Brookfield Corporation ›
Bill Ackman has been making a lot of moves recently. Last month, his hedge fund filed IPO paperwork for a dual offering, establishing a new closed-end Pershing Square fund while bringing his hedge fund management company to the public market. This month, he offered a takeover bid for Universal Music Group with plans to re-list it on a U.S. exchange. (Pershing Square already owns a sizable stake in Universal.)
But investors don't have to invest directly with Ackman to take advantage of his best ideas. The value investor manages a portfolio with just 13 stock positions, and he generally holds positions for a long time. Investors can use public disclosures to learn about and capitalize on his best ideas. His portfolio is particularly concentrated among just a few names, with 39% of Pershing Square's $17.7 billion portfolio held in the stocks of three stellar companies.
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1. Brookfield (14.5% of assets)
Brookfield (NYSE: BN) is establishing itself as an investment-led insurance company. Instead of seeking to profit from underwriting alone, it aims to increase insurance float as a means to access capital for equity investments. It's the exact business model Warren Buffett used to grow Berkshire Hathaway, and it's what Ackman himself is trying to emulate with Howard Hughes Holdings. The company held $120 billion in invested assets at the end of 2025, but it plans to grow that to $600 billion.
Brookfield already owns a broad portfolio beyond its burgeoning insurance business, including a large stake in Brookfield Asset Management (NYSE: BAM), which manages and invests its capital. The asset management business is set to deliver substantial earnings to Brookfield over the next few years. Due to the way it sets up investment funds, Brookfield first returns all capital to shareholders with a preferred interest rate before realizing any earnings for itself in the form of carried interest. Management expects to generate $6 billion in carried interest over the next three years and $6 billion more in the next two years after that, with another $13 billion over the five years that follow.
As Brookfield rapidly grows its invested capital over the next few years, combined with Brookfield Asset Management's long track record of solid results, it should produce very good distributable earnings growth for investors. Ackman expects 25% growth this year, which is in line with management's target from its investor day last September. With shares trading for less than 17 times last year's distributable earnings, the stock looks like an absolute bargain right now.
2. Uber (12.3%)
Uber's (NYSE: UBER) stock is only loosely tied to how well its business is growing today. Instead, investors are heavily focused on how well the company can survive in the age of self-driving cars. Autonomous vehicle companies could displace Uber with their own apps, or Uber may emerge as a key demand aggregator for multiple companies. Ackman is fully in the latter camp.
Uber is already showing progress in becoming a partner for self-driving cars. It's working with Alphabet's (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) Waymo in multiple cities, and it's striking deals with smaller companies every month. Most recently, it started working with Motional in Las Vegas for autonomous rides.
Uber's scale is also a unique advantage. Not only does it already have the largest network of riders in the world, but it also has a ton of data on those riders, drivers, and each and every ride. Management aims to use that data to help improve autonomous vehicle technology with its new AV Labs.
Importantly, the network effect is positively impacting Uber's earnings now. Monthly users increased 18% last year, and users are booking more trips each month. That led to 35% growth in earnings per share, and even faster growth in free cash flow. With the stock trading for less than 22 times forward earnings, Uber looks undervalued relative to its current growth trajectory. Whether it's a buy for you depends on how you expect it to fare in the age of autonomous vehicles.
3. Alphabet (12.2%)
Alphabet has emerged as a leader in artificial intelligence across multiple areas, which have all fueled its financial results and should continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
Alphabet is best known for its Google search engine. And while many saw chatbots like ChatGPT displacing Google searches, management has adeptly integrated generative AI features into Google search results. Its AI Overviews have increased engagement with Search, driving users to ask new types of questions. Management notes that as it scales AI Overviews to practically every search result, it hasn't seen a deterioration in monetization. As a result, Google Search ad revenue growth accelerated every quarter in 2025 as engagement grew.
The company's Google Cloud platform is also seeing substantial demand. That's fueled by its development of its leading AI model Gemini 3 as well as its custom Tensor Processing Units. Alphabet's TPUs are more cost-efficient than general-purpose GPUs for some AI training and inference applications. Anthropic notably contracted to outfit its own data centers with Google's TPUs. Strong demand pushed Alphabet's Google Cloud revenue 48% higher last quarter, with significant operating margin expansion.
Alphabet has plenty of growth opportunities in AI. It struck a deal with Apple to use its Gemini foundation model in a revamped Siri set to launch this year. Meanwhile, demand for its AI services in Google Cloud continues to outstrip its ability to supply them. And reducing the costs and improving the responses in AI overviews could lead to strong margin improvement in Search.
Strong price performance has pushed the stock valuation to 28 times forward earnings estimates. But that may still undervalue the potential of AI to push its financial results higher going forward. Not to mention that the company's Other Bets, including Waymo, could drive meaningful earnings results in the future.
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Adam Levy has positions in Alphabet, Apple, and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Brookfield, Brookfield Asset Management, Brookfield Corporation, Howard Hughes, and Uber Technologies and is short shares of Apple. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
AI Talk Show
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"The article sells Ackman's conviction as validation of current valuations, but doesn't stress-test whether those valuations already price in the bull case or leave room for error if execution slips."
The article conflates 'Ackman holds it' with 'it's a buy,' which is a dangerous leap. Yes, BN, UBER, and GOOGL are quality businesses, but the article ignores valuation context: GOOGL at 28x forward P/E is priced for perfection in AI (margin expansion must materialize); UBER's 22x forward assumes autonomous vehicles don't crater the moat (unproven); BN's 17x distributes earnings but requires $600B AUM growth to justify the thesis. Ackman's long holding periods don't mean buy-and-hold forever—he's also a activist who exits when thesis breaks. The article omits that concentration risk cuts both ways: 39% in three names means portfolio is vulnerable to any single thesis failure.
Ackman's track record of patient capital deployment in quality compounders is legitimately strong, and if AI monetization and autonomous vehicle adoption play out as management guides, these valuations could look cheap in 3-5 years.
"Ackman's heavy concentration in these three names ignores the high sensitivity of their valuations to a potential 'AI bubble' correction and shifting interest rate environments."
The article presents a classic 'coat-tailing' strategy, but it glosses over significant structural risks. While the Brookfield (BN) insurance-float model is attractive, its success hinges on high-interest rates supporting investment yields—a dynamic that could reverse. Uber's 22x forward P/E (Price-to-Earnings) is predicated on it becoming the 'operating system' for autonomous vehicles (AVs), yet it lacks its own proprietary AV stack, leaving it vulnerable to disintermediation by hardware owners like Tesla or Waymo. Alphabet (GOOGL) faces a massive CAPEX (Capital Expenditure) cycle that could compress margins if AI monetization doesn't scale linearly with infrastructure costs. Ackman’s concentration is a double-edged sword that ignores these specific sector headwinds.
The primary risk is that Uber and Alphabet are currently in a 'capital arms race' where massive spending is required just to maintain market share, potentially turning them into low-margin utilities rather than high-growth tech leaders.
"Ackman’s 39% concentration in Brookfield, Uber and Alphabet is a high‑conviction mix of asset-value, platform optionality, and AI-led growth — attractive on paper but materially exposed to timing, execution, and regulatory risks that individual investors must price in."
Ackman’s portfolio concentration—39% of Pershing Square’s $17.7B into Brookfield (BN, 14.5%), Uber (UBER, 12.3%) and Alphabet (GOOGL, 12.2%)—is a high‑conviction, three‑pronged bet: asset-value and fee growth at Brookfield, platform/AV optionality at Uber, and AI/cloud monetization at Alphabet. The article cites attractive multiples (BN <17x distributable earnings, UBER <22x forward, GOOGL ~28x forward) and impressive growth metrics (Brookfield’s $120B invested assets aiming for $600B; Google Cloud +48% y/y; Uber: monthly users +18%, EPS +35%). But it glosses over timing and execution risk — lumpy carried interest, rate sensitivity for assets, AV adoption uncertainty, cloud supply constraints, and regulatory/antitrust exposure.
Ackman’s concentrated stake is precisely the point: his activist leverage, long holding periods, and these companies’ structural advantages (Brookfield’s fee engines, Uber’s network, Alphabet’s AI moat) could generate outsized returns that justify the concentration — copying him may well outperform a diversified approach.
"Brookfield's ambitious insurance-led growth is macro-sensitive and execution-heavy, trading at optimistic 17x DE despite lumpy carry and legacy drags."
Ackman's 39% concentration in BN (14.5%), UBER (12.3%), and GOOG (12.2%) screams conviction, but Brookfield's Berkshire clone pitch glosses over key risks: its $120B-to-$600B asset ramp assumes persistent low-cost float in a high-rate world that compresses insurance spreads (current 10-year Treasury ~4.2%). Carried interest ($6B next 3 years) is back-loaded and tied to fund IRRs >8%, vulnerable to real estate slumps given BN's property roots. UBER's AV bets face Tesla/Motional robotaxi threats eroding network moat; GOOG solid but 28x fwd premiums in antitrust crosshairs. Follow Ackman? Diversify beyond his thesis.
If rates decline and Brookfield nails float growth while asset mgmt delivers on carry, 25% DE expansion could drive 15x+ re-rating, compounding like BRK.
"Brookfield's $600B AUM growth hinges on M&A execution in a tightening credit cycle, not on Ackman's board seat."
ChatGPT and Grok both anchor on Ackman's activist leverage as a mitigant, but that's circular reasoning. Activist leverage works only if management listens—and Brookfield, Uber, Google have entrenched boards. More pressing: nobody flagged that BN's $600B AUM target requires *acquisition* growth, not organic. M&A in real assets is lumpy, cyclical, and regulatory-exposed. If BN can't deploy capital efficiently post-2025, the entire thesis compresses regardless of float dynamics.
"Brookfield's valuation is hostage to M&A exit volume, while Uber's regulatory moat is being undervalued relative to Tesla's hardware threat."
Claude and Grok are over-indexing on interest rate spreads for Brookfield while ignoring the liquidity trap. If BN’s $6B carried interest is deferred due to a frozen M&A market, the 'distributable earnings' multiple is a mirage. Furthermore, Gemini’s AV disintermediation risk for Uber misses the regulatory moat: Tesla can’t simply 'switch on' a fleet without the local operating licenses and insurance infrastructure Uber already scales. The real risk is a CapEx-induced margin squeeze across all three.
"Ackman's concentration creates forced-sale liquidity risk for Pershing Square that could magnify losses and make exits expensive."
Claude flagged concentration risk; one overlooked but critical follow-on is fund-level liquidity/margin risk: Pershing Square's $17.7B with ~39% in three large positions means material paper losses could trigger investor redemptions or prime-broker margin calls, forcing Ackman to sell into weakness. Exiting large stakes (BN, UBER, GOOGL) without moving prices is hard—this amplifies downside in stressed markets and undermines the 'hold-through-cycles' defense.
"PSH's closed-end structure with 5% tender cap mitigates redemption risk, shifting fund pressure to NAV discount widening."
ChatGPT's redemption/margin call risk is overstated—Pershing Square Holdings (PSH) is a closed-end fund with quarterly tenders capped at 5% of NAV, blocking spiral outflows. Real fund threat: the 22% NAV discount (as of Q1 '24) balloons in downturns, pressuring Ackman to deliver alpha just to narrow it. Followers copying via stocks sidestep this but lack his scale for activist fixes on BN/UBER/GOOGL.
Panel Verdict
No ConsensusThe panelists generally agree that Ackman's concentrated portfolio in BN, UBER, and GOOGL presents significant risks, particularly around valuation, execution, and concentration. They caution against blindly following Ackman's thesis without considering these risks.
High-conviction bets on asset-value and fee growth, platform/AV optionality, and AI/cloud monetization
Concentration risk and the potential failure of any single thesis