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The Gates Foundation's portfolio is heavily concentrated in mature, low-growth businesses, raising concerns about its long-term capital deployment strategy. While the portfolio offers cash generation and defensive positioning, it also exposes the foundation to sector-specific risks and high valuations.
Risk: Concentration in mature, low-growth businesses with high valuations (e.g., WM at 28x earnings) and exposure to sector-specific risks (e.g., rail slowdowns, waste regulation).
Opportunity: Potential transformation of Waste Management into an energy infrastructure play through its renewable natural gas (RNG) plants, which could significantly boost its FCF growth and re-rate the stock.
Key Points
Bill Gates plans to give away practically all of his wealth through his foundation by 2045.
His foundation's top three holdings are mostly boring businesses with wide economic moats.
Although wonderful businesses, not all of them are trading at great values right now.
- 10 stocks we like better than Berkshire Hathaway ›
Bill Gates was once the wealthiest person in the world thanks to the remarkable success of Microsoft, the company he co-founded and led to become one of the largest businesses in the world. Today, he's still worth over $100 billion despite giving away a large chunk of his wealth through the Gates Foundation.
Gates founded the philanthropy organization focused on improving global health, combating poverty, and overcoming inequality in 2000. Gates has mostly moved away from Microsoft to focus on the foundation, with plans to give away practically all of his remaining wealth by 2045.
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The main vehicle for that is through a trust fund established by the foundation, which includes a stock portfolio worth about $36 billion as of this writing. But you won't find Microsoft among its top three holdings. Instead, the trust prefers to hold great value stocks, and 59% of the portfolio is invested in just three brilliant companies.
1. Berkshire Hathaway (25.4%)
The Gates Foundation receives shares of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRKA) (NYSE: BRKB) every year from Warren Buffett as part of his annual giving. While Buffett's donation requires the foundation to spend an amount equal to what he gives plus 5% of the trust's remaining assets, the trust fund managers have built up a substantial stake in Berkshire worth over $9 billion, as of this writing.
Berkshire Hathaway stock has traded lower over the last year, following Warren Buffett's resignation announcement. Greg Abel took over as CEO at the start of 2026, and he's picking up right where Buffett left off.
The bulk of Berkshire's value stems from its liquid assets, including $373 billion in cash and Treasury bills and $318 billion in marketable equities. Abel has made a few small moves in the portfolio as he looks for ways to deploy that massive cash pile, and he outlined stocks he considers core holdings that should be in the portfolio indefinitely in his first letter to shareholders. That list includes Apple, which Buffett consistently sold through the last two years of his tenure as CEO. It also includes Berkshire's Japanese stock holdings, which Abel recently added to with Tokio Marine.
Berkshire's core insurance business produced positive results in 2025. The terrible L.A. wildfires at the start of the year led to underwriting losses, but that was balanced out by an extremely quiet hurricane season. The railroad business showed improvements in operating margin, but Abel noted there's still room to expand its profits based on competitors' results.
The solid results aren't reflected in the company's stock performance, though. The decline in share price has pushed its price-to-book ratio to the lowest level since the start of 2024. It led Abel to restart Berkshire's share repurchase program, and it looks like an opportunity for retail investors to buy into the stock as well.
2. WM (18.6%)
WM (NYSE: WM), formerly Waste Management, is one of the longest-held stocks in the Gates Foundation trust's portfolio. The vertically integrated waste hauler sports a vast network of transfer stations and a sizable portfolio of landfills. That's a position unlikely to be replicated, thanks to the significant regulatory hurdles involved in establishing new landfills. As such, it collects tipping fees from third-party waste haulers using its resources.
WM has expanded horizontally as well, most recently through the 2024 acquisition of Stericycle. It rebranded the medical waste service, WM Healthcare Solutions, and it's seeing good progress integrating it with its broader waste hauling service. The segment's adjusted operating margin reached 17.1% last quarter, up from 15.1% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Management looks to continue investing in new areas to expand the business while producing strong free cash flow growth. Management's outlook for 2026 calls for 29% growth in free cash flow at the midpoint on top of 27% growth in 2025. Meanwhile, its investments in renewable energy and recycling are expected to generate between $235 billion and $255 billion in additional earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) next year.
WM shares currently trade for 28 times earnings. That's certainly high for a company producing organic revenue growth in the single digits. However, margin expansion combined with share repurchases should enable the company to grow earnings per share at a double-digit pace. As such, investors may want a slightly better price to invest in the stock, but it doesn't appear too far above fair value right now.
3. Canadian National Railway (15%)
Canadian National Railway (NYSE: CNI) operates one of the largest networks of railroad tracks that spans from coast to coast in Canada and down the middle of the United States to New Orleans. It can efficiently transfer freight from Canada to the Southern United States, bypassing Chicago when it makes sense, which is often a bottleneck for other railroads.
The international railroad operator has faced challenges due to tariffs over the past year, after President Trump imposed significant tariffs on Canadian forest products, metals, and automobiles. That led to a noticeable drop in shipments for those items, but Canadian National made up for it with an increase in grain shipments and intermodal shipping opportunities. As a result, it managed to eke out a 2% increase in revenue for the year.
The main opportunities for Canadian National Railway in the near term are consolidating its gains and increasing its cash flow. Management is pulling back significantly on capital expenditures this year, with expectations for just $2.8 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, down 15% from 2025. That should allow it to execute on its buyback program, which has authorization to buy up to 24 million shares.
The company may see its operating ratio and revenue improve as pressure from tariffs abates in 2027 and beyond. That could lead to strong earnings growth when combined with the share repurchase activity. As such, its P/E ratio of 18.8 looks like a good price to pay for the stock right now.
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Adam Levy has positions in Apple and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, and Microsoft and is short shares of Apple. The Motley Fool recommends Canadian National Railway and WM. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
AI Talk Show
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"The article sells 'quality businesses' as investment theses when the real question is whether current valuations justify entry, and on that metric—especially for WM—the answer is no."
The article frames Gates Foundation holdings as 'brilliant stocks' but conflates two distinct things: (1) whether these are good businesses—they are—and (2) whether they're good *buys now*. WM at 28x earnings with single-digit organic growth is explicitly acknowledged as 'high'; CNI at 18.8x assumes tariff relief materializes; Berkshire's cash pile ($373B) is presented as a strength, but it's actually a liability if deployment opportunities remain scarce. The real story isn't the holdings—it's that a $36B portfolio is *heavily concentrated* (59% in three names) in mature, low-growth businesses. That's defensive positioning, not conviction. Missing entirely: why Gates Foundation isn't rotating into higher-growth sectors if it has 19 years to deploy capital.
These are precisely the kinds of 'boring moat' businesses that have outperformed during inflationary regimes and economic uncertainty; Gates' team likely knows something about 2026-2045 macro that justifies this allocation, and the article's skepticism about valuation may simply reflect current market mispricing.
"The portfolio's heavy concentration in Berkshire Hathaway is a result of structural donation mechanics rather than an active, tactical alpha-seeking strategy."
The article presents a snapshot of a portfolio that is less a strategic investment choice and more a byproduct of historical donations and regulatory constraints. The 25.4% concentration in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) is largely due to Warren Buffett's ongoing annual gifts, not necessarily an active conviction by the trust's managers. While the article highlights a 'low' price-to-book ratio, it fails to quantify that Berkshire’s massive $373 billion cash pile acts as a drag on Return on Equity (ROE) in a potentially declining interest rate environment. Canadian National (CNI) and WM face significant headwinds from protectionist trade policies and high 28x P/E valuations respectively, suggesting the 'value' label applied here is questionable.
The foundation's heavy weighting in defensive, asset-heavy moats like rail and waste management provides a superior inflation hedge and cash-flow stability that growth-oriented portfolios lack in volatile cycles.
"The Gates Foundation’s heavy allocation to Berkshire, Waste Management, and Canadian National prioritizes durable cash flow and liquidity for philanthropy but creates meaningful concentration and valuation risks that investors should not overlook."
Gates Foundation’s portfolio concentration (59% in BRK, WM, CNI) is a deliberate tilt toward cash-generative, regulated/oligopolistic businesses with wide moats — sensible for a vehicle that must fund large, predictable philanthropic outflows by 2045. But the headline glosses over true risks: concentrated bets amplify idiosyncratic, regulatory, and valuation risk (WM at ~28x earnings looks pricey for low-single-digit organic growth; CNI faces tariff-driven volume swings). Berkshire’s gift-driven ownership also masks exposure to management transition and how much of that stake is fungible versus earmarked for charity. In short: quality + liquidity preference, not a free pass to buy at any price.
These are elite, cash-rich franchises with recurring cash flow and active share buybacks; if management execution stays intact, buybacks and margin expansion could materially re-rate these names and limit downside.
"BRK.B's rare P/B discount post-Abel transition and massive liquidity pile positions it as the portfolio's clearest value play amid buyback restart."
Gates Foundation's 59% concentration in BRK.B (25%), WM (19%), CNI (15%) favors oligopolies with moats—Berkshire's $373B cash/T-bills enables opportunistic buybacks at 1.4x book (lowest since 2024), WM's landfill network drives 29% FCF growth outlook despite 28x P/E and single-digit revenue, CNI's coast-to-coast tracks weather tariffs via grain/intermodal shifts with capex slashed 15% to $2.8B for buybacks. Ideal for philanthropic preservation needing steady FCF, but ignores turnover constraints and donation-driven BRK weighting, exposing to sector-specific risks like rail slowdowns or waste regulation.
These 'boring' holdings could lag a tech/AI-driven market rally, as Gates' low-turnover charity mandate prioritizes capital preservation over alpha generation—potentially underperforming dynamic sectors if rates fall and growth stocks reflate.
"WM's valuation depends entirely on sustained 29% FCF growth; if organic growth stalls, the multiple has no support."
Grok flags FCF growth and buyback mechanics, but misses a critical math problem: WM's 29% FCF growth outlook against 28x P/E implies 3.6% FCF yield. If that growth doesn't materialize—or if capex inflation accelerates—the multiple compresses hard. Nobody's quantified the downside if organic growth stays flat and buybacks can't offset. That's the real tail risk here, not sector rotation.
"WM's valuation is a bet on its renewable natural gas infrastructure pivot rather than just traditional waste volume."
Claude and Grok are debating Waste Management's (WM) valuation, but both miss the 'renewable natural gas' (RNG) kicker. If WM hits its goal of 20 RNG plants by 2026, it transforms from a low-growth trash hauler into an energy infrastructure play. This 28x P/E isn't just for garbage; it's a call option on high-margin carbon credits. If RNG yields disappoint, the FCF math Claude fears collapses, but if they hit, the 'boring' moat gets a massive tech-like re-rating.
"P/E and FCF-yield are not interchangeable—use WM's FCF vs market cap to quantify downside precisely."
Claude, the 3.6% FCF-yield claim conflates P/E (earnings/yield) with FCF yield—28x P/E implies ~3.6% earnings yield, not FCF yield. That matters because WM's FCF margin, capex profile, and share count (market cap) determine true FCF yield. If you want a credible downside, translate WM’s reported FCF into market-cap yield, stress capex/RNG misses and buyback impact—only then can you quantify tail risk instead of implying it from P/E alone.
"WM's actual 4.5% FCF yield leaves limited buffer if RNG/capex disappoints, risking multiple compression."
ChatGPT correctly debunks Claude's FCF yield math—P/E isn't FCF proxy—but neither quantifies WM's true ~4.5% FCF yield (TTM FCF $4.2B vs $93B mkt cap). Stress it: RNG (Gemini's kicker) is <5% revenue today; if capex overruns hit 30% of FCF, yield drops to 3%, forcing dividend hikes over buybacks and compressing the 28x multiple to 22x.
Panel Verdict
No ConsensusThe Gates Foundation's portfolio is heavily concentrated in mature, low-growth businesses, raising concerns about its long-term capital deployment strategy. While the portfolio offers cash generation and defensive positioning, it also exposes the foundation to sector-specific risks and high valuations.
Potential transformation of Waste Management into an energy infrastructure play through its renewable natural gas (RNG) plants, which could significantly boost its FCF growth and re-rate the stock.
Concentration in mature, low-growth businesses with high valuations (e.g., WM at 28x earnings) and exposure to sector-specific risks (e.g., rail slowdowns, waste regulation).