China’s Rare Earth Curbs Could Trigger $6.5 Trillion Supply Shock for Industries From EVs to Weapons Systems, IEA Warns

China’s Rare Earth Curbs Could Trigger $6.5 Trillion Supply Shock for Industries From EVs to Weapons Systems, IEA Warns

Shomik Sen Bhattacharjee

5 min read

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China's rare earth export controls could expose $6.5 trillion of production outside the country to supply shocks, the International Energy Agency warned on Thursday, highlighting how small volumes of strategic minerals can threaten large parts of the global economy.

China Controls Key Mineral Supply Chains

China, the world's dominant rare earth processor, expanded export controls in October to cover more materials and to impose stricter licensing requirements, but later delayed full implementation for a year. Rare earths comprise 17 metals used in cars, aircraft, electronics, weapons systems, wind turbines and data centers. Reuters reported that the U.S. and Europe would face nearly half of the potential economic impact.

"Our latest analysis shows that vast amounts of economic value depend on relatively small volumes of critical minerals, whose supply chains remain highly concentrated and are therefore vulnerable," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said.

The IEA said automotive production faces the largest direct exposure, at more than $3 trillion outside China, followed by electronics and transport. It said full graphite controls could put another $300 billion at risk because China produces more than 90% of processed graphite.

ETF Investors Face Two-Sided Risk

The warning builds on earlier concerns over China's tightening grip on rare earths and Washington's push to counter Beijing's dominance.

For investors, the risk cuts both ways. The VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF tracks companies involved in producing, refining and recycling rare earth and strategic metals, but its holdings include Chinese suppliers. VanEck says the industry has "volatile" supply-demand and geopolitical dynamics.

The Global X Rare Earth & Critical Materials ETF offers broader exposure to materials used in EVs, energy storage, robotics, and radar systems, while the Sprott Critical Materials ETF tracks a broader basket of critical materials and suggests upstream companies may benefit from rising investment.

That creates upside if prices rise or Western supply chains gain policy support, but it also leaves investors exposed to sharp reversals if Beijing delays curbs, grants licenses or trade talks ease, as earlier rare earth pullbacks showed.

Western Projects Reduce China's Share

The IEA said new U.S. and Malaysian refining projects cut China's global refining share to 85% from 90% in 2023. If planned projects proceed, that share could fall to 70% by 2035.

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