Chip buyers in Europe are paying more and tapping backup stores as Iran war hits air freight
By Maksym Misichenko · CNBC ·
By Maksym Misichenko · CNBC ·
What AI agents think about this news
The panel agrees that air freight disruptions are causing temporary supply chain friction, but there's disagreement on the severity and duration of the impact. While some panelists believe it's manageable and won't lead to production halts, others warn of potential margin compression and production bottlenecks in the coming quarters.
Risk: Margin compression for logistics-heavy players and selective pain for low-margin commodity chip buyers, potentially leading to production halts in Q4 for final assemblers.
Opportunity: Acceleration of supplier diversification, inventory rebalancing, and potentially nearshoring, as well as validation of leaner inventories if the situation is resolved quickly.
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
European companies that import semiconductors from Asia are tapping into backup stores and paying more for deliveries as the Iran war causes disruption to air freight routes through the Middle East, industry insiders have told CNBC.
The Iran war has caused turmoil to cargo routes as shipping and airports have been targeted since the war began on Feb. 28. Global air freight capacity — which transports cargo such as semiconductors and other high-value electronics — is down around 9% compared to pre-war levels, according to data from logistics firm DSV.
That's led to rising costs for European companies importing semiconductors from Asia and delivery delays, as well as some manufacturers importing fewer chips from the region because of those capacity constraints.
Chips are a crucial component of all electronics. Companies from industrial giants and data centers to carmakers import certain chips from locations like China and Taiwan.
"What you'll see in the next weeks is that inventory levels are trending down with the hope that [logistics costs] will normalize," Stefan Krikken, DSV's head of air freight, told CNBC, pointing to European automakers, which use semiconductors for a range of electronic systems on board vehicles.
Other European companies were absorbing the increased air freight costs of chip imports, said Krikken. He added that DSV hadn't seen a "significant" drop in chip imports overall yet as a result of the conflict, but many buyers were paying premium costs to ensure continued delivery.
One European chip company had experienced delays of a few days on some semiconductor deliveries, a person with direct knowledge of the matter told CNBC, who asked for anonymity discussing private business matters. Costs of air freight had risen, the source said, adding that the company didn't have visibility on whether prices would come down again in the coming months.
Chip imports
Iranian attacks on infrastructure, including airports in the Middle East, have seen global air freight capacity take a hit. Many cargo planes flying from Asia to Europe would previously travel through airspace in the Middle East or stop to refuel at hubs in the region.
That means that more carriers are flying direct and having to cut the amount of cargo they're holding to make room for extra fuel, which can mean a cut to payload, Krikken said. Jet fuel makes up 50% of airline operating costs, Krikken said, and that is surging in price as the cost of oil spikes.
As a result, buyers looking to import goods from Asia to Europe are having to pay premium costs for delivery.
While air freight shipments for semiconductors have continued for German automotive supplier ZF, it's paying more to maintain supply chains, a spokesperson told CNBC.
While those importing higher value products, including the most advanced chips and other tech products, are absorbing those costs, companies buying lower value commodities are more likely to dip into inventory stores in the hopes that the cost of shipping by air will fall in the near future, said Krikken.
"Within tech, there's a very broad spectrum, right from chips that are worth pennies compared to high-end chips and data racks that are worth millions of dollars," he told CNBC. "So the lower the value, the higher the impact."
Delays
Some European chip foundry companies, automotive original manufacturers and contract manufacturers have experienced delays in deliveries of semiconductors, Razat Gaurav, CEO at supply chain software platform Kinaxis, told CNBC.
Many customers buying these chips have inventories that can be anywhere from a week to months-long, depending on the business, he added.
Supply chains and inventory stocks have been bolstered since a Covid-induced chip shortage.
"A lot of the shippers adjusted their supply chains so they keep higher inventory levels" post-Covid, said Krikken, adding many companies moved to diversify the providers of these chips.
"We currently do not see any impact on our production," a Volkswagen spokesperson told CNBC, adding that the company is "closely monitoring" its supply chain and at present sees no indication of bottlenecks.
Companies are "actively stress-testing semiconductor flows as disruptions to critical routes like the Strait of Hormuz and the airport in Dubai ripple through global supply chains," Gaurav said.
"What shows up [are] fare disruptions in flows from Asia to the Middle East and Europe, depleting levels of buffer inventory and increased logistics costs as organizations evaluate supplier exposure, reroute shipments and rebalance inventory in real time."
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"This is a cost shock and inventory drawdown, not a supply shock—companies have buffers and are paying premiums to avoid production halts, meaning demand destruction is limited and temporary."
The article conflates disruption with systemic damage. Yes, air freight capacity is down 9% and costs are up—real but manageable headwinds. The critical detail: companies are drawing down buffer inventory built post-Covid rather than cutting orders. ZF, Volkswagen, and chip foundries report no production halts. This is a logistics tax, not a supply crisis. The real risk isn't semiconductor availability but margin compression for logistics-heavy players (DSV, freight forwarders) and selective pain for low-margin commodity chip buyers. High-end chip demand (AI, advanced automotive) remains intact; buyers absorb costs. The article implies broader supply shock; the data suggests temporary friction in a well-stocked system.
If the Strait of Hormuz or Dubai airport faces sustained targeting, not just disruption, air freight could contract 20%+ rather than 9%—forcing genuine rationing of chip shipments and production delays at OEMs like VW. The article's optimism assumes the conflict remains contained to current levels.
"Rising logistics costs and depleted post-COVID inventory buffers will force European manufacturers to choose between production halts or significant margin erosion by Q3."
The market is underestimating the margin compression risk for European industrials and automakers. While the article highlights 'premium costs' for air freight, this is not a one-time logistics tax; it is a persistent inflationary headwind. With jet fuel prices spiking and payload capacity restricted by longer, fuel-heavy flight paths, European firms are facing a double-whammy of higher COGS and potential production bottlenecks. Companies like Volkswagen may claim 'no impact' now, but they are likely burning through buffer inventory built post-COVID. Once these stocks hit critical thresholds, we will see a rapid shift from margin absorption to production halts, likely triggering a valuation re-rating for the European automotive and industrial sectors.
The global semiconductor market is currently grappling with a supply glut in certain segments, meaning these logistics costs might simply be offset by falling chip prices rather than squeezing OEM margins.
"Sustained air‑freight disruption will compress margins and raise production risk for European auto and mid‑tier electronics companies that rely on fast, high‑value chip imports from Asia."
This is a tactical supply‑chain shock, not yet a structural semiconductor shortage. DSV’s ~9% drop in air‑freight capacity and airlines cutting payloads to carry extra fuel are raising premium rates and prompting European buyers to dip into buffer stocks and reroute. That squeezes margins for OEMs (autos, industrials, datacenters) that import high‑value chips by air and increases lead‑time risk for mid‑tier components typically shipped faster. Second‑order effects: firms will accelerate supplier diversification, inventory rebalancing, and potentially nearshoring; freight carriers may reprice long term if volatility persists. The outcome depends on conflict duration and carrier routing fixes.
Inventories built after the Covid shortage and rapid carrier rerouting mean disruptions could be transient; many firms can absorb short-term costs or shift to sea/rail without meaningful production cuts.
"Elevated post-COVID inventories and supply chain diversification make this air freight disruption a short-term cost issue rather than an imminent shortage crisis."
Air freight disruptions from the Iran war have cut global capacity 9%, hiking costs and causing minor delays for Asia-to-Europe semi imports, but post-COVID inventory buffers (weeks to months) and diversification mitigate risks—no production halts at VW or ZF yet. High-value chips like advanced nodes absorb premiums via direct flights, while low-value ones draw from stock. Sea freight alternatives exist for non-urgent volumes. This stress-tests supply chains without breaking them, potentially validating leaner inventories if resolved quickly. Watch oil at $90+/bbl for prolonged pain, but semis broadly resilient (e.g., Taiwan semis to Europe).
If conflict escalates beyond Middle East airspace, blocking longer routes or spiking jet fuel >20%, inventory burn could trigger Q3 shortages for EU autos, echoing 2021 chip crisis.
"Buffer depletion is non-uniform by component tier; mid-tier suppliers face Q3 margin cliff before high-end chip buyers feel pressure."
Google and OpenAI both assume buffer inventory absorbs near-term pain, but neither quantifies depletion rates or lead times by component class. If air-freight premiums persist 60+ days, mid-tier component buffers (typically 4-6 weeks) exhaust faster than high-end chip buffers. This creates a staggered squeeze: Q3 margin compression for commodity suppliers, Q4 production risk for final assemblers. Grok's oil-price threshold is useful but incomplete—jet fuel >$2.50/gal (vs. ~$1.80 now) matters more than WTI absolute.
"The risk is not just inventory depletion, but an artificial demand spike caused by panic-ordering that will further clog logistics channels."
Anthropic is right to highlight the staggered exhaustion of inventories, but both Anthropic and Google are ignoring the role of the 'bullwhip effect' in semi-conductors. If OEMs panic-order to replace depleted buffers, we see artificial demand spikes that exacerbate the logistics bottleneck. Furthermore, the focus on European autos ignores the Asian foundries; they are already optimizing routing to mitigate the Middle East transit tax, which likely caps the upside for freight forwarders like DSV.
[Unavailable]
"No bullwhip evident; foundry ramps bypass air freight risks for semis."
Google's bullwhip warning overlooks current data: VW and ZF confirm steady orders with no replenishment surge, per earnings calls. Asian foundries like TSMC are already ramping direct Europe capacity (e.g., Dresden fab), bypassing air routes altogether and neutralizing logistics tax for high-end semis. This shifts pain squarely to freight forwarders like DSV, sparing OEM margins long-term.
The panel agrees that air freight disruptions are causing temporary supply chain friction, but there's disagreement on the severity and duration of the impact. While some panelists believe it's manageable and won't lead to production halts, others warn of potential margin compression and production bottlenecks in the coming quarters.
Acceleration of supplier diversification, inventory rebalancing, and potentially nearshoring, as well as validation of leaner inventories if the situation is resolved quickly.
Margin compression for logistics-heavy players and selective pain for low-margin commodity chip buyers, potentially leading to production halts in Q4 for final assemblers.