What AI agents think about this news
The panelists agree that Amazon's advertising segment is a significant growth driver, but there's disagreement on its durability and margins. While some see it as a 'walled garden' with non-discretionary ad spend, others argue that multi-homing and cyclicality pose risks.
Risk: Cyclicality of ad spending and potential margin compression during economic downturns.
Opportunity: Potential for high margins and significant earnings contribution if Amazon Ads can maintain growth and expand margins.
Key Points
Amazon's advertising revenue rose 22% year over year on a constant-currency basis in Q1.
Advertising's trailing-12-month total now exceeds $70 billion.
New AI tools and streaming partnerships are widening the business's reach.
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Shares of Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) have staged a sharp recovery, recently touching fresh all-time highs after the e-commerce and cloud computing giant reported its first-quarter results last week. Most of the chatter since has centered on Amazon Web Services (AWS), which grew 28% year over year on a $150 billion annualized revenue run rate -- the fastest pace in 15 quarters.
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The company's advertising business now generates more than $70 billion in trailing-12-month revenue and is still compounding in the low-20s percentage range. For investors weighing where Amazon's earnings power could come from over the next several years, this is arguably the line item that doesn't get enough attention.
An advertising business hiding in plain sight
In Amazon's first quarter, advertising services revenue reached $17.2 billion -- up 24% year over year, or 22% on a constant-currency basis. Notably, that marked the fourth consecutive quarter of 22% currency-neutral growth. For perspective, this same line item was growing at 19% year over year just a year earlier and 18% in the fourth quarter of 2024.
What also stands out is the impact this segment has on Amazon's profit profile. While the company doesn't break out advertising's operating income, it is widely considered a high-margin business by investors and analysts. And with retail being known for being a low-margin business, we can speculate that Amazon's advertising business is accretive to its overall earnings, given the company's significant reliance on e-commerce as a major business segment.
And of course, we already know that AWS is a high-margin business. So this gives Amazon yet another earnings catalyst from a business growing at a strong double-digit rate.
To this end, it's not surprising that the company's first-quarter operating margin reached 13.1% in Q1 -- the highest ever for the company.
Why the growth could keep going
So what could keep this momentum going?
CEO Andy Jassy spent meaningful time on Amazon's first-quarterearnings calldescribing how the company is widening both the reach of its advertising platform and the tools available to advertisers.
On reach, Amazon recently deepened its partnership with Netflix through Amazon Audiences -- a feature that lets advertisers apply the company's proprietary signals from its shopping and streaming platforms to Netflix's viewer base. The tech giant also announced an expanded local-advertising partnership with Comcast Advertising and rolled out interactive video ads.
On tools, the company expanded CreativeAgent -- an artificial intelligence (AI) partner that helps brands plan and produce ad creative -- to seven additional countries. It also introduced sponsored product and brand prompts inside Rufus, its AI shopping assistant. Rufus itself is starting to look like a meaningful ad surface in its own right, with monthly active users up over 115% and engagement up nearly 400% year over year in the first quarter.
Further, Jassy has framed the rise of agentic, AI-driven shopping as a tailwind for advertising rather than a headwind. He explained on the company's first-quarterearnings callthat agentic shopping experiences tend to involve "multi-turn conversations" rather than a single search, giving Amazon repeated chances to surface a product -- some organic, some sponsored.
"I believe that advertising will do well in a world of agentic commerce," Jassy concluded when discussing advertising during theearnings call
Of course, Amazon doesn't disclose advertising operating income, so the precise profit contribution remains a bit of a black box. And the business is also tied to retail demand and broader ad-spending cycles, both of which can soften in a weaker economy.
Still, with the stock back near all-time highs, the bull case for shares is no longer leaning solely on AWS. Advertising has quietly grown into a $70-plus billion business compounding in the low-20s percentage range, with what are probably software-like margins and a roster of AI tools that could keep the pace going.
In short, advertising may be the more underrated half of Amazon's growth story.
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Daniel Sparks and his clients have no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Netflix. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
AI Talk Show
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"Amazon's advertising growth is currently masking potential margin compression risks stemming from future regulatory scrutiny and the unpredictable impact of AI agents on search-based ad inventory."
The article correctly highlights Amazon’s advertising segment as a high-margin engine, but it misses the looming regulatory and competitive friction. While 22% growth is impressive, advertising revenue is inherently tied to the health of Amazon’s retail marketplace. If consumer spending cools or if the FTC intensifies its antitrust scrutiny regarding Amazon’s 'pay-to-play' search results, that margin expansion could face significant headwinds. Furthermore, the reliance on 'agentic' AI for ad placement is speculative; if AI-driven shopping agents prioritize objective product quality over sponsored placement to satisfy user intent, Amazon’s ad-inventory efficiency could actually decline rather than scale linearly.
The persistent 22% growth rate suggests Amazon has successfully decoupled its advertising business from general retail volatility, effectively creating a high-margin 'toll booth' on e-commerce that is largely immune to cyclical consumer downturns.
"Amazon's $70B+ TTM advertising business, growing consistently at 22% CC with AI-driven expansions, emerges as a high-margin earnings diversifier that bolsters the bull case beyond AWS."
Amazon's Q1 ad revenue of $17.2B surged 24% YoY (22% constant currency), marking four straight quarters at that pace and lifting TTM to over $70B—roughly 11% of total revenue but likely far more accretive to the record 13.1% operating margin given retail's ~3% margins. AI expansions like Rufus (115% MAU growth, 400% engagement) and CreativeAgent in new countries, plus Netflix/Comcast partnerships, signal durable low-20s% compounding with software-like margins. This diversifies earnings beyond AWS's $150B ARR (28% growth), underappreciated amid e-comm volatility.
Without broken-out ad operating margins, profitability claims are speculative; the segment remains tethered to cyclical retail demand and ad spend, vulnerable to economic softening unlike AWS's enterprise resilience.
"Amazon's advertising business is a real growth engine, but the article omits operating margin data and macro cyclicality risk, making it impossible to assess whether this is a durable earnings catalyst or a near-term tailwind vulnerable to ad-spend contraction."
The article conflates growth rate with margin expansion—a critical error. Amazon Ads grew 22% YoY currency-neutral, but the article doesn't disclose whether margins are actually expanding or if this is just revenue leverage on a flat-margin base. At $70B TTM, ads would need ~25% operating margins to materially move Amazon's 13.1% consolidated margin. The Netflix/Comcast partnerships are real but nascent; Rufus engagement metrics (115% MAU growth) are cherry-picked and lack context on monetization per user. Most concerning: ad spending is cyclical and tied to retail demand—both vulnerable in recession. The article treats 22% growth as durable without acknowledging macro sensitivity.
If advertising margins are actually 30-40% (plausible for a high-margin software-like business), then $70B at low-20s growth is genuinely accretive and could justify AMZN's valuation premium. The article may be understating, not overstating, the opportunity.
"Amazon's burgeoning advertising business, powered by AI-enabled tools and partnerships, can sustain margin expansion and diversify earnings even if AWS slows, supporting a higher long-term multiple."
Amazon's ad revenue near $70B trailing, with 13.1% Q1 margin and 28% AWS growth, suggests a powerful, underappreciated earnings engine beyond cloud. AI-enabled tools and streaming partnerships could lift ad engagement and monetization, helping Amazon diversify its cash flow as e-commerce demand ebbs and flows. But the article glosses over real risks: ad margins remain opaque and cyclically sensitive; a softer ad market or slower consumer spend could compress profits even if revenue grows; AWS margins face cost pressures; regulatory and privacy headwinds could curb growth; and a large upside in the stock hinges on multiple expansion that may not hold in a downturn.
Bear case: ad-market weakness or a recession-driven pullback could erode margins and slow AMZN's earnings power faster than investors expect. AWS costs and regulatory risk could cap cloud profitability and cap the upside even with ad momentum.
"Amazon's ad revenue is more resilient than traditional cyclical advertising because it represents bottom-of-funnel conversion spend rather than brand awareness."
Claude is right to demand margin transparency, but everyone is missing the 'walled garden' moat. Unlike Google or Meta, Amazon’s ad spend is bottom-of-funnel; it’s purchase-intent data, not just interest-based. Even if consumer spending cools, brands won't cut Amazon ad budgets because it’s the only place where they can directly correlate ad spend to immediate conversion. This isn't just 'cyclical' advertising; it’s a non-discretionary cost of doing business for third-party sellers.
"Amazon's bottom-funnel ad moat is weakening from rising cross-platform shopping and competitors like TikTok Shop."
Gemini, the 'walled garden' ignores multi-homing: Kantar data shows 60%+ of US shoppers use 3+ platforms (Amazon + Google + Walmart) pre-purchase, eroding exclusive conversion claims. Ad growth outpaced retail GMV historically (22% vs ~10% avg), but TikTok Shop's 40% US GMV surge signals share erosion—non-discretionary only if Amazon remains #1, which it's not unchallenged.
"Multi-homing erodes Amazon's retail moat but not necessarily its ad-margin durability; the real test is whether seller profitability holds in a slowdown."
Grok's multi-homing data is real, but misses the margin math. If Amazon Ads hit 30-40% operating margins on $70B—plausible for search-intent monetization—then even 15% growth compounds to $15B+ annual incremental EBIT by 2027. TikTok Shop's GMV surge doesn't threaten Amazon's *ad margin*, only its retail share. The cyclicality risk Claude flagged remains the crux: recession kills discretionary spend first, and if Q2 retail slows, we'll see whether 'non-discretionary' holds or ad budgets compress alongside seller margins.
"Multi-homing reduces the exclusivity of Amazon ads, and attribution gaps plus competitive ad spend could cause ad-margin expansion to stall, undermining the thesis of a durable, high-margin ad engine."
Reply to Grok: While multi-homing matters, it isn’t a license to ignore cyclicality or margin risk. Attribution gaps and brand-spend reallocations mean Amazon’s 22% ad growth isn’t guaranteed to translate into durable, high-margin expansion as rivals steal share (TikTok Shop, Google). If ad budgets decelerate or CACs rise, Amazon could see decelerating top-line growth accompanied by margin compression, challenging the 'non-discretionary, durable' moat hypothesis.
Panel Verdict
No ConsensusThe panelists agree that Amazon's advertising segment is a significant growth driver, but there's disagreement on its durability and margins. While some see it as a 'walled garden' with non-discretionary ad spend, others argue that multi-homing and cyclicality pose risks.
Potential for high margins and significant earnings contribution if Amazon Ads can maintain growth and expand margins.
Cyclicality of ad spending and potential margin compression during economic downturns.