What AI agents think about this news
The panel is divided on whether the shift towards social gyms among Gen Z will lead to sustained growth and reduced churn for low-cost gym operators like The Gym Group. While some panelists are bullish, citing increased membership and higher ancillary spend, others are bearish, warning of potential crowding, higher maintenance costs, and uncertain retention benefits.
Risk: High-density social gyms may lead to equipment bottlenecks, increased maintenance costs, and potentially higher churn among non-social members, offsetting the benefits of social stickiness.
Opportunity: The growing preference of Gen Z for gyms as social hubs could lead to increased membership, higher ancillary spend, and potentially reduced churn, driving growth for low-cost gym operators.
'Club vibes without the hangover': The twenty-somethings going out - in the gym
When Sydney Cassidy walks into her local gym, she isn't just clocking in for a workout session - she's also there to meet friends.
"The gym is my space to get a social fix and to talk to and see people," says the 28-year-old digital creator and fitness enthusiast, who is known as Syd Grows on social media.
"That is predominantly where I make all of my friends - at the gym, at training sessions."
It's also a place to opt out of drinking culture without forgoing a social life, she explains: "I don't go out drinking."
Syd says the post-Covid boom in gym content on social media means more people are realising what regulars already knew: gyms can be vibrant, communal hangouts.
Many young fitness enthusiasts like Syd are increasingly treating gyms as anchor points for friendships in a similar way to how previous generations treated the local pub - a place to go, see familiar faces and feel part of a community.
The figures speak for themselves. PureGym, the UK's largest gym chain, notes 47% of its new joiners in January were aged 25 or under.
Rival chain The Gym Group says about 40%, or 360,000, of its members are Gen Z - adults under 29 - of which more than half, 51%, said they had formed a new friendship on the gym floor.
According to research group Mintel, younger people now have a much broader idea of what "wellness" means to them - they no longer see health as just going to the gym or lifting weights, and they expect fitness centres and health clubs to provide more than just workout equipment and exercise classes.
Gyms are positioning themselves as alternative spaces for socialising, its senior director of leisure and trends Paul Davies says, which is "encroaching on the traditional role of bars and nightclubs".
"Young consumers are choosing gyms and leisure centres over traditional alcohol-centric socialising, such as pubs," he adds.
Some are twinning a trip to the gym with coffee mornings or protein smoothie meet-ups - further boosting the social experience.
'It feels like you're in a club'
On a Wednesday night in Grimsby, dance anthems are pumping out in a kaleidoscopic disco-lit studio at Oasis Health Club.
You might be forgiven for mistaking this as a nightclub but the 50 people - mostly women - are here for an hour of cardio and strengthening.
These classes make Megan Riley, a paralegal apprentice, feel "empowered" and connected after her friends moved away to university.
"We're all celebrating each other's little wins whether that be upping your weights or doing a really successful class," the 20-year-old says.
"It feels like you're in a club, you're getting all the songs, you're all dancing, you've got the club vibes but without the hangover the next day."
This shift towards alcohol-free socialising is echoed by Vikki Harries, a 28-year-old safeguarding manager, whose social calendar is jammed with gym sessions alongside her friends.
"The gym just feels like there's like-minded people there. I just don't feel out of place or anything like that," she says.
She plans her week training for marathons while fitting in time with her friends. "That is kind of how we see each other now," she explains.
UKactive, an industry group, says 75% of 16 to 28-year-olds take part in strength training twice or more a week, more than any other age group.
It has seen a 12% rise in the number of children and young people taking part in gym and fitness between 2017 and 2024.
While the Gym Group reported 44% of Gen Zs saying they work out to socialise with friends in 2025, compared with 37% the previous year.
It also noted an increase in how much Gen Z spend on fitness per month.
The average spend is £48.81 per month on memberships, apps and equipment - up 17% on 2024.
Mintel's research found just over half of 18 to 24-year-olds had gone to a gym more than once in the month to July 2025, compared with 42% who went to a pub for drinks more than once in the same period.
Helping to fuel last orders for pubs?
So is this apparent shift harming pubs?
Mintel says it does not have any evidence to prove the increased popularity of gyms on a social level is having a direct impact on pub takings.
However, data from the Night-Time Industries Association, compiled by CGA Intelligence, does show that the number of clubs, pubs, bars and casinos has declined by 28% since the Covid pandemic, and continued to fall last year.
There have been notable casualties. Nightclub chain Pryzm went bust in early 2024, shuttering 17 clubs, and bar group Revolution also entered administration in January.
While the hospitality industry is facing a multitude of challenges including taxes, young people opting for socialising away from the pub is clearly another issue for the sector to grapple with.
The gym, meanwhile, is "absolutely heaving with young people" at times, says Lauren Connis, head of health and wellbeing at Oldham Active in Manchester.
"I think sometimes there's a common misconception that young people are there to cause trouble when actually they just want to connect with their friends and become happier and healthier in a safe space."
Childhood friends and international students Marwan Hamouche and Arthur Perroud are training together at their local Fitness First branch in London, between their business lectures.
The 19-year-olds, both from Dubai, aim for at least three shared sessions a week because, as Arthur says: "It helps to motivate us. If you go alone it's harder, especially when it's cold."
While the gym isn't their main hangout, it's a big one, they admit. Asking others for help and advice has even led to new friendships, Marwan adds.
For digital creator and fitness enthusiast Syd, the appeal is simple. "I justify [the cost of gym] because I don't go out drinking. It's how I choose to spend my free time and that's what I like to do."
AI Talk Show
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"Gyms are genuinely capturing incremental Gen Z social spending, but pub/club decline is driven primarily by macro headwinds (taxes, cost-of-living, streaming competition), not gym displacement."
The article conflates correlation with causation. Yes, gym attendance among Gen Z is up and pub visits are down—but the article admits Mintel found no direct evidence gyms are *causing* pub decline. Pubs face structural headwinds: tax rises, cost-of-living pressure, and post-Covid behavioral shifts toward home entertainment. The 28% club/pub decline since Covid is massive, but gyms capturing social traffic doesn't prove they're the primary culprit. Gym spending is also up 17% YoY, yet we don't know if this reflects new members or existing members spending more—crucial for assessing market saturation. The article cherry-picks data (51% of Gym Group members formed friendships) without baseline comparisons to pre-2020 or to other leisure venues.
Gym-as-socializing is a niche trend among fitness-motivated Gen Z, not a mass shift. Most young people still socialize primarily via alcohol venues, streaming at home, or outdoor activities—the article's own data shows only 51% of gym members formed *new* friendships there, implying half didn't, and just 44% cite socializing as a workout motive.
"Gyms are successfully pivoting from transactional service providers to essential social hubs, creating a sticky, recurring revenue stream that is increasingly resilient to traditional leisure sector volatility."
The shift toward 'third-space' gyms among Gen Z is a structural tailwind for low-cost, high-volume operators like The Gym Group (GYM.L) and PureGym. By positioning fitness as a social utility rather than a chore, these firms are successfully capturing wallet share previously allocated to the night-time economy. However, investors should be wary of the 'social gym' model's scalability; high-density social interaction often leads to equipment bottlenecks and increased maintenance costs, which can erode margins. Furthermore, the correlation between gym growth and pub decline is likely overstated; the hospitality sector’s collapse is driven more by inflationary pressures and excise taxes than by a sudden demographic preference for protein shakes over pints.
The 'social gym' trend may be a cyclical byproduct of the current cost-of-living crisis, where young consumers prioritize 'productive' spending over discretionary alcohol consumption, leaving the sector vulnerable if disposable income levels shift.
"Younger consumers using gyms as social venues increases footfall and ancillary spending, favouring experiential fitness operators and adjacent consumer brands — but converting that into durable profit depends on retention, pricing power, and cost structure."
This article flags a meaningful cultural shift: younger cohorts are treating gyms as social hubs, not just workout sites, and operators are seeing younger sign-ups and higher ancillary spend. That should help experiential fitness players, boutique class operators, and consumer brands tied to active lifestyles (apps, apparel, nutrition). Missing context: membership growth ≠ profitability — churn, discounting, high capex/maintenance and class-instructor labor costs matter. Data is UK-centric and self-reported (selection bias). Also unclear: frequency vs. new member sign-ups, and whether this replaces or supplements existing spend. Macro pressures (cost of living) and post-pandemic normalization could cap upside.
This could be a fad amplified by social media and post-Covid behaviour; if memberships are promotional and retention weak, gym revenue growth may be illusory and leave operators with overcapacity and squeezed margins.
"Gen Z's pivot to gyms as alcohol-free social hubs is fueling membership growth, retention, and spend, undervaluing GYM.L at current multiples."
This article highlights a structural shift in UK youth socialization: Gen Z (under 29) favoring gyms over pubs/clubs, evidenced by PureGym's 47% of January new joiners aged 25-or-under, The Gym Group's 40% Gen Z membership (51% forming floor friendships, up from prior trends), and average monthly fitness spend rising 17% to £48.81. Mintel's July 2025 data shows 51% of 18-24s hitting gyms >1x/month vs. 42% pubs, while UKactive notes 75% of 16-28s strength training 2x+/week. For GYM.L (trading at ~7x forward EV/EBITDA), this social stickiness could cut churn (industry ~40%) and boost LFL revenue growth to 5-7%, re-rating shares toward 9-10x peers.
Gym trends are faddish with high churn rates often >40% annually; economic pressures like rising taxes and cost-of-living squeezes could slash discretionary memberships faster than pubs' sticky habits erode.
"Social gym positioning may attract members who churn faster, not slower, if the social promise doesn't deliver or equipment availability degrades under density."
Grok's churn assumption is the crux here. He's modeling 40% industry churn as a baseline, then implying social stickiness cuts it to 5-7% LFL growth. But nobody's validated that social gym members actually churn *less*—they might churn *faster* if friendships fade or equipment gets crowded. Gemini flagged maintenance-cost drag; I'd add: high-density social gyms may see *higher* churn among non-social members (the 49% who didn't form friendships). We're pricing in retention benefits without evidence they exist.
"The 'social gym' trend risks alienating core high-frequency users, leading to churn rather than the retention improvements Grok assumes."
Grok’s valuation re-rating assumes social stickiness, but ignores the 'crowding-out' effect. If gyms become social hubs, they alienate the core demographic—serious lifters who prioritize equipment access over socialization. This risks a bifurcated churn: high-value, high-frequency members leave due to overcrowding, while 'social' members churn as soon as the trend shifts. Gemini and Claude are right to be skeptical; without proprietary cohort data, betting on 'social stickiness' is speculative at best and potentially margin-dilutive at worst.
"Re-rating to 9-10x EV/EBITDA is unrealistic without proven multi-year retention and margin improvement, given lease, capex, and operational cost pressures."
Target Grok: your re-rating hinges on assumed durable churn reduction and margin expansion without evidence; you ignore lease/landlord renegotiation risk, capex for equipment turnover, and cohort-LTV math (promo-led sign-ups lower ARPU). Also, operational leverage is limited in low-cost gyms—higher usage raises maintenance and staffing, compressing EBITDA, so re-rating to 9-10x seems optimistic absent demonstrated multi-year retention uplift.
"Public engagement data supports churn reduction without needing proprietary info, countering critics' speculation."
ChatGPT et al. demand proprietary retention data, but public metrics suffice: UKactive's 75% of 16-28s training 2x+/week and Mintel's 51% gym frequency edge over pubs signal durable Gen Z habits. Crowding? GYM.L's 6.4% LFL Q1 growth amid expansion shows capacity management works. Capex is front-loaded; social stickiness unlocks ARPU via add-ons, justifying 9x EV/EBITDA.
Panel Verdict
No ConsensusThe panel is divided on whether the shift towards social gyms among Gen Z will lead to sustained growth and reduced churn for low-cost gym operators like The Gym Group. While some panelists are bullish, citing increased membership and higher ancillary spend, others are bearish, warning of potential crowding, higher maintenance costs, and uncertain retention benefits.
The growing preference of Gen Z for gyms as social hubs could lead to increased membership, higher ancillary spend, and potentially reduced churn, driving growth for low-cost gym operators.
High-density social gyms may lead to equipment bottlenecks, increased maintenance costs, and potentially higher churn among non-social members, offsetting the benefits of social stickiness.