CNBC anchor shocked by US trade deficit drop from $136B to $29B — the lowest since 2009. Was Trump right about tariffs?

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The U.S. has lived with a massive trade deficit for decades. But under President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, that gap suddenly narrowed — and much faster than many expected.
That became clear on CNBC when anchor Rick Santelli reacted in real time to the trade numbers.
“On the trade balance, which we know is going to be a deficit, we’re expecting a number around $58 billion,” Santelli said in January (1). As he read through the Commerce Department’s update, his tone shifted. “Buckle up; this is unreal! The movement in this number: -$29.4 billion — we cut it basically in half! We cut it in half!”
October’s $29.4 billion trade deficit didn’t just come in well below economists’ forecasts — it marked a 39% drop from September’s $48.1 billion gap (2).
Despite this, the trade deficit stood at $54.5 billion in January, according to the March trade report (3).
Santelli also underscored how dramatic the swing was compared to earlier in 2025, before Trump’s tariffs took effect.
“Just consider this: In March, it was $136 billion. Right now, it’s a whisker under $30 billion. We haven’t been that small in a long time — I don’t have enough records here to go back that far!” he said.
As it turns out, it was the smallest trade deficit since June 2009, according to CNBC (4).
Tariffs are designed to discourage imports and reshape trade flows, so the trend isn’t entirely unexpected. As Santelli noted, “Here’s the news on why it moved lower: Imports were down and exports were up.”
Despite a Supreme Court decision that struck down Trump’s sweeping tariffs, the president continued with his battle plan.
He recently took to social media to declare his “absolute right” to impose new tariffs and claim the Supreme Court had “ransacked” the country with its ruling, reports the Guardian (5).
In fact, soon after the court’s decision, President Trump imposed 10% tariffs under a different law than his original levies, vowing to raise that figure to 15% — though the higher tariffs have yet to be implemented.
The temporary tariffs expire in July, but the Trump administration has launched trade investigations in an effort to establish a new set of permanent tariffs.
Yet support from everyday Americans is waning as their frustration with tariffs grows. According to a survey conducted by the Harris Poll in February, seven in 10 Americans say Trump’s tariffs have led them to pay higher prices. Across party lines, the sticker shock is real (6).
Trump’s sweeping tariffs have also drawn criticism from economists, including fears of retaliation from major trading partners. But with the October figures, some sounded more upbeat.
“The U.S. appears to be winning the trade war with tariffs curbing the imports of foreign goods, but America’s trading partners are not holding any grudge as they continue to buy more American goods and services,” Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds, told CNBC.
“So far, the forecasts for a U.S. recession are coming up dry as productivity continues to backstop growth.”
Third-quarter data backed up that assessment. During that period, U.S. GDP grew at an annual rate of 4.4% — the strongest pace since late 2023 (7).
However, the growth rate was only at 0.7% for the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting downturns in government spending, exports and consumer spending.
Still, some analysts see tailwinds ahead.
“We expect fading policy uncertainty, the boost from tax cuts and the recent loosening of monetary policy to mean the economy strengthens in 2026,” said Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics (8).
If you share this optimism, here’s a look at a few simple ways to position yourself for America’s growth in 2026 — and beyond.
Read More: I’m almost 50 years old and don’t have retirement savings. Is it too late to catch up?
The U.S. stock market has been a powerful engine of wealth creation. Trump has pointed to that strength, saying in December, “the only thing that’s really going up big? It’s called the stock market and your 401(k)s (9).”
The benchmark S&P 500 returned nearly 20% in the past 12 months and has gained roughly 82% over the past five years (10).
Of course, consistently picking winning stocks isn’t easy. That’s why legendary investor Warren Buffett argues that most people don’t need to pick individual companies at all to benefit from the stock market’s long-term growth.
“In my view, for most people, the best thing to do is own the S&P 500 index fund,” Buffett has famously stated (11). This approach gives investors exposure to 500 of America’s largest companies across a wide range of industries, providing instant diversification without the need for constant monitoring or active trading.
The beauty of this approach is its accessibility — anyone, regardless of wealth, can take advantage of it. Even small amounts can grow over time with tools like Acorns, a popular app that automatically invests your spare change.
Signing up for Acorns takes just minutes: Link your cards and Acorns will round up each purchase to the nearest dollar, investing the difference — your spare change — into a diversified portfolio.
With Acorns, you can invest in an S&P 500 ETF with as little as $5. And if you sign up today with a recurring investment, Acorns will add a $20 bonus to help you begin your investment journey.
Beyond stocks, real estate has long been another cornerstone of wealth-building in America.
In fact, Buffett often points to real estate when explaining what a productive, income-generating asset looks like. In 2022, Buffett stated that if you offered him “1% of all the apartment houses in the country” for $25 billion, he would “write you a check (12).”
Why? Because regardless of what’s happening in the broader economy, people still need a place to live and apartments can consistently produce rent money.
Real estate also offers a built-in hedge against inflation. When inflation rises, property values often increase as well, reflecting the higher costs of materials, labor and land. At the same time, rental income tends to go up, providing landlords with a revenue stream that adjusts with inflation.
Of course, you don’t need to have $25 billion — or even to buy a single property outright — to invest in real estate. Crowdfunding platforms like Arrived offer an easier way to get exposure to this income-generating asset class.
Backed by world-class investors like Jeff Bezos, Arrived allows you to invest in shares of rental homes with as little as $100, all without the hassle of mowing lawns, fixing leaky faucets or handling difficult tenants.
The process is simple: Browse a curated selection of homes that have been vetted for their appreciation and income potential. Once you find a property you like, select the number of shares you’d like to purchase and then sit back as you start receiving any positive rental income distributions from your investment.
Another great option is mogul, a real estate investment platform offering fractional ownership in blue-chip rental properties. This gives investors monthly rental income, real-time appreciation and tax benefits — without the need for a hefty down payment or 3 a.m. tenant calls.
Founded by former Goldman Sachs real estate investors, the team handpicks the top 1% of single-family rental homes nationwide for you. Simply put, you can invest in institutional-quality offerings for a fraction of the usual cost.
Each property undergoes a vetting process, requiring a minimum 12% return even in downside scenarios. Across the board, the platform features an average annual IRR of 18.8%. Their cash-on-cash yields, meanwhile, average between 10% and 12% annually. Offerings often sell out in under three hours, with investments typically ranging between $15,000 and $40,000 per property.
Every investment is secured by real assets, not dependent on the platform’s viability. Each property is held in a standalone Propco LLC, so investors own the property — not the platform. Blockchain-based fractionalization adds a layer of safety, ensuring a permanent, verifiable record of each stake.
Getting started is a quick and easy process. You can sign up for an account and then browse available properties. Once you verify your information with the team, you can invest like a mogul in just a few clicks.
The March trade report also draws attention to one standout commodity — gold.
In January, exports of nonmonetary gold surged by $4.7 billion, while imports of the precious metal fell by $1.1 billion.
Gold has been on a tear, soaring nearly 65% over the past 12 months (13). Investors have long turned to the yellow metal as a safe-haven asset — a hedge against uncertainty, inflation and geopolitical stress.
Unlike fiat currencies, gold isn’t tied to any single government and can’t be printed out of thin air by central banks. When markets get turbulent, money tends to move toward assets perceived as stable — and gold often tops that list.
Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, has repeatedly highlighted gold’s role in a resilient portfolio.
“People don’t have, typically, an adequate amount of gold in their portfolio,” Dalio told CNBC earlier last year. “When bad times come, gold is a very effective diversifier.”
He’s not the only one sounding bullish. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon recently said that in this environment, gold can “easily” rise to $10,000 an ounce.
One way to invest in gold that also provides significant tax advantages is to open a gold IRA with the help of Priority Gold.
Gold IRAs allow investors to hold physical gold or gold-related assets within a retirement account, thereby combining the tax advantages of an IRA with the protective benefits of investing in gold, making it an option for those looking to help shield their retirement funds against economic uncertainties.
When you make a qualifying purchase with Priority Gold, you can receive up to $10,000 in precious metals for free.
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@CNBCtelevision (1); Bureau of Economic Analysis (2), (3); (7); CNBC (4), (11), (12); The Guardian (5), (6); Reuters (8); @ntdtv (9); Yahoo Finance (10); GoldPrice (13)
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