Could SpaceX's $1.75T Valuation Make It the Biggest Public Offering in History?

Key Points
SpaceX could file its long-awaited IPO within the next week.
Its debut price would be frothy, but it might deserve its premium valuation.
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SpaceX, the aerospace and AI company founded by Elon Musk, is reportedly getting ready to go public. According to The Information and CNBC, the company could raise as much as $75 billion and seek a valuation of up to $1.75 trillion. Let's see how those rumored figures would make SpaceX the largest initial public offering in history -- and if investors should buy it.
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How fast is SpaceX growing?
SpaceX generates most of its revenue from selling Starlink satellites and internet services, as well as from launch services using its Falcon rockets. Its main customers include NASA, the U.S. Department of Defense, international space agencies, and commercial satellite companies.
That makes it comparable to AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS), which sells satellites for cellular communications, and Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB), which provides reusable orbital rockets and launch services. However, SpaceX is much larger than both companies.
Based on analysts' estimates at Payload and the Wall Street Journal, SpaceX's revenue doubled from $2.3 billion in 2021 to $4.6 billion in 2022, then rose 90% to $8.7 billion in 2023. According to Sacra, its revenue increased 51% to $13.1 billion in 2024 and 18% to $15.5 billion in 2025. SpaceX is still growing at an impressive rate, but its business is clearly maturing.
Over the long term, SpaceX expects Starship -- its long-distance rocket and passenger spacecraft for missions to the Moon and Mars -- to drive its growth beyond orbital launches. Its recent acquisition of xAI, Musk's smaller AI company that created the Grok generative AI platform, could also boost its sales and strengthen its core satellite and rocket businesses.
Would SpaceX's valuation make sense?
At $1.75 trillion, SpaceX would surpass Saudi Aramco's record-setting $1.7 trillion market debut in 2019. However, that would value the company at 113 times its 2025 sales. It would also be more than double its last known valuation of $800 billion in late 2025.
It isn't unusual for high-growth space stocks to trade at high valuations. AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab trade at 142x and 44x their projected 2026 sales, respectively. But if the market hype drives SpaceX's stock even higher out of the gate, it could become too hot to handle. According to Reuters, SpaceX could allocate up to 30% of its IPO shares to retail investors -- so we could see it initially skyrocket before plunging back to more sustainable levels.
SpaceX looks like an interesting investment, but I'd wait to review its actual filing before deciding whether it's a better space stock than AST SpaceMobile or Rocket Lab. I'd also probably avoid its IPO and wait for it to pull back before accumulating any shares.
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Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.