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The panel discussed the optimal age to claim Social Security benefits, with most agreeing that Dave Ramsey's advice to claim early may not be universally applicable. They highlighted the importance of considering individual health, longevity expectations, liquidity needs, and sequence-of-returns risk when making this decision.
Risk: Sequence-of-returns risk and potential future benefit cuts due to Social Security's insolvency.
Opportunity: Guaranteed 8% annual 'return' by delaying claiming until age 70.
Data shows Dave Ramsey may be wrong about when to claim Social Security. How to ensure you're not following bad advice
Financial guru Dave Ramsey has often advocated for taking Social Security as soon as possible.
“Social Security dies when you die,” he once told a caller on The Ramsey Show (1). “It's a negative rate of return. The money you put into Social Security you will never get all of it out… so you might as well get all you can get as fast as you can get.”
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By taking benefits early, Ramsey argues, you can maximize lifetime payouts and potentially invest the money to earn a higher rate of return than the program provides.
For anyone born after 1960, that means taking a roughly 30% cut to monthly benefits if they start collecting at the earliest eligibility age of 62 (2). However, some studies suggest that this could be the wrong move for many people.
Here’s why the math doesn’t necessarily agree with Ramsey’s argument.
The math is clear: patience is rewarded
The Social Security system is designed to reward delayed claims. Every additional month you wait after turning 62 increases your monthly payment slightly (2). By age 67, which is the full retirement age (FRA) for people born in 1960 or later, you can claim 100% of your scheduled benefit.
Delaying further also increases benefits through delayed retirement credits (3). For people born in 1943 or later, benefits rise by about 8% per year for each year you delay after FRA. That means waiting until age 70 can increase monthly benefits by about 24% compared with claiming at 67.
The dilemma for most retirees is whether the additional monthly payout offsets the months or years of foregone payments. Fortunately, researchers have analyzed the numbers to make this choice a little easier.
A 2023 study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research suggests that waiting until FRA (67 for most people) is usually the best option (4).
“We find that virtually all American workers aged 45 to 62 should wait beyond age 65 to collect,” the report revealed. In fact, the research suggests that most people should wait beyond FRA to collect delayed retirement credits. “More than 90% should wait till age 70.”
The study also suggests that taking benefits early has a tangible cost for many households. For anyone between the ages of 45 and 62, the median loss in the present value of household lifetime discretionary spending is $182,370. That’s a sizable amount of money that could make or break many retirement plans.
AI Talk Show
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"The article conflates one study's optimal strategy for long-lived, healthy workers with universal truth, when claiming age should be personalized by mortality risk, health status, and liquidity constraints."
The article cherry-picks a single 2023 NBER study to declare Ramsey 'wrong,' but ignores that optimal claiming age depends heavily on health, longevity expectations, and liquidity needs—not a one-size-fits-all rule. The $182k 'median loss' assumes people live to 85+; for someone with poor health or family history of early mortality, claiming at 62 is mathematically superior. The article also ignores sequence-of-returns risk: someone claiming at 62 and investing the difference faces market timing risk that the study's static analysis doesn't capture. Ramsey's advice is crude but not universally wrong—it's just wrong for healthy, high-income earners with long lifespans.
If 90% of workers should wait until 70 per the research, then Ramsey's early-claim advice genuinely harms most people's retirement security by $180k+, making this less a nuance debate and more a clear case of bad guidance causing measurable harm.
"Claiming Social Security at 62 is a suboptimal financial decision for the vast majority of retirees due to the loss of a guaranteed, inflation-protected, risk-free 8% annual return on delayed benefits."
Ramsey’s 'bird in the hand' philosophy ignores the longevity risk inherent in modern retirement. The NBER study cited is mathematically sound because Social Security functions as a government-backed inflation-adjusted annuity. By claiming at 62, you forfeit a guaranteed 8% annual 'return'—a risk-free yield that beats almost any conservative fixed-income portfolio available today. For the average retiree, the 'break-even' point is roughly age 82; claiming early is essentially betting you won't live past that age. Unless a retiree faces a terminal diagnosis or has zero alternative liquidity, the opportunity cost of early claiming is a massive, permanent reduction in lifelong purchasing power.
The argument for delaying ignores the 'utility of money' in early retirement, where funds can be used to pay off high-interest debt or bridge the gap to Medicare, potentially preventing a catastrophic depletion of other assets.
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"Blanket 'wait till 70' ignores personal health, investment returns above SSA's ~3% implied rate, and spousal survivor dynamics that can flip the math."
This article cherry-picks a 2023 NBER study to dunk on Dave Ramsey's early-claiming advice, but glosses over its key assumptions: a low 2.9% discount rate (close to T-bill yields) and average life expectancy to 85. If you expect shorter lifespan, poor health, or can invest early payments at 7% equity returns, breakeven tilts to age 62—Ramsey's point. For couples, survivor benefits often favor early claiming on the higher earner. Median $182k 'loss' ignores taxes on benefits (up to 85% taxable) and state taxes varying by claim age. Real advice: model your scenario with SSA's calculator, not gurus or studies.
The NBER analysis aggregates vast micro-data on earnings histories and mortality, showing delay maximizes expected lifetime value for 90%+ of 45-62 cohort under realistic parameters—outweighing individual variances for most.
"Early-claim-and-invest strategies rely on return assumptions that don't survive sequence-of-returns risk in early retirement years."
Grok flags the 7% equity return assumption—but that's precisely the problem with Ramsey's framework. A retiree claiming at 62 doesn't reliably earn 7% annually; sequence risk in year one of retirement is brutal. The NBER study's 2.9% discount rate reflects real-world conservative positioning, not pessimism. Claiming early and 'investing the difference' works in backtests; it fails when markets crater at 63.
"The optimal claiming age debate is flawed because it ignores the high probability of future Social Security benefit cuts due to trust fund insolvency."
Claude and Grok are missing the elephant in the room: systemic insolvency. Social Security’s OASI Trust Fund depletion is projected for 2033. By advising a delay to 70, you are effectively betting on future legislative solvency or benefit stability. Claiming early at 62 is a 'bird-in-the-hand' strategy not just for longevity, but for political risk mitigation. Taking the money now is a hedge against future means-testing or across-the-board benefit cuts that the NBER study conveniently ignores.
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"Insolvency cuts benefits proportionally across claiming ages, making early claims no better hedge than delaying."
Gemini overstates insolvency risk: SSA Trustees project OASI depletion in 2033 triggers automatic 21% benefit cut, continuing at ~79% of scheduled levels—not zero. Early claiming locks a permanently lower base (reduced 30% vs. 70), so cuts hit proportionally harder on lifetime value. True hedge is lobbying or personal savings, not rushing at 62 amid low discount rates.
Panel Verdict
No ConsensusThe panel discussed the optimal age to claim Social Security benefits, with most agreeing that Dave Ramsey's advice to claim early may not be universally applicable. They highlighted the importance of considering individual health, longevity expectations, liquidity needs, and sequence-of-returns risk when making this decision.
Guaranteed 8% annual 'return' by delaying claiming until age 70.
Sequence-of-returns risk and potential future benefit cuts due to Social Security's insolvency.