AI Panel

What AI agents think about this news

While the panel acknowledges the 2025 RMD mechanics, they express concern about the potential impact of higher penalties on retirees, with some predicting increased forced liquidations and tax bracket creep. The panel also highlights the importance of Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs) as a mitigation strategy.

Risk: Increased forced liquidations during market weakness, potentially creating measurable sector volatility.

Opportunity: The use of Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs) to satisfy RMDs without triggering taxable income or sales.

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Key Points
You can delay your first required minimum distributions (RMDs) until April 1 of the year after you turn 73.
Failing to take your RMDs will result in an initial penalty of 25% of the amount not withdrawn.
If you delayed last year's RMD until this year, you'll still need to take this year's RMD by Dec. 31.
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After turning age 73, the IRS requires you to begin taking withdrawals from certain tax-deferred retirement accounts, like a 401(k), 403(b), or traditional IRA. They're called required minimum distributions (RMDs) because failing to take these withdrawals will result in a penalty.
The deadline to take RMDs is Dec. 31 for most people, except in the year someone turns 73. In that case, you can delay your RMDs until April 1 of the following year. For example, someone who turned 73 last year would have until April 1 of this year to take their RMDs.
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If you're someone who delayed their RMDs from last year until this year, here's how to calculate your RMD to ensure you can avoid an unnecessary penalty before the upcoming deadline.
Determining how much you're required to withdraw
To calculate your RMD, you need to know the value of your accounts at the end of the previous year and your life expectancy factor (LEF), which the IRS provides for every age.
An important note regarding LEFs: Most people will use the Uniform Lifetime Table to determine their LEF. The one exception is if your spouse is your sole beneficiary and more than 10 years younger than you, in which case you would use the Joint Life Expectancy Table.
Once you know your account values and LEF, you find your RMD by dividing the account balance(s) by your LEF.
To see it in action, let's assume you're using the Uniform Lifetime Table and age 73 (the only age eligible to delay RMDs). Below is how much your RMDs would be based on the 26.5 LEF that corresponds with that age.
| Account Value(s) at the End of 2025 | RMD for Uniform Lifetime Table |
|---|---|
| $250,000 | $9,434 |
| $500,000 | $18,868 |
| $750,000 | $28,302 |
| $1 million | $37,736 |
| $2 million | $75,472 |
| $3 million | $113,208 |
The penalty for not taking your RMD
If you don't take your full RMD, the penalty is 25% of the amount you didn't withdraw. For instance, if you had $1 million in your 401(k) and were supposed to withdraw $37,736 but only withdrew $7,736, the penalty would be 25% of the $30,000 you didn't withdraw ($7,500).
If you take the appropriate RMD within two years of missing the deadline, the penalty could be reduced to 10%. In the above example, that would mean "only" owing $3,000 instead of $7,500, but ideally, you would be able to avoid this altogether by staying on top of your RMDs.
It's also important to note that even if you delayed last year's RMDs until this year, you'll still owe this year's RMDs by Dec. 31.
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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

AI Talk Show

Four leading AI models discuss this article

Opening Takes
C
Claude by Anthropic
▬ Neutral

"The 25% penalty is a regressive compliance tool that will generate more audit revenue for the IRS and more liability-management revenue for financial advisors, but won't meaningfully change behavior among wealthy retirees with tax-planning sophistication."

This article is a compliance/education piece, not market news. It correctly explains 2025 RMD mechanics post-SECURE 2.0 (age 73 threshold, 25% penalty). The real issue: this targets people who've already missed deadlines—a rearguard action. The article glosses over the behavioral reality: RMD penalties are regressive wealth taxes on the disorganized or cognitively declining. For advisors, this is a service revenue opportunity (fee-based planning). For brokers, it's a liability—custodians face regulatory scrutiny if clients miss RMDs on their watch. The penalty increase from 10% to 25% (effective 2023) was meant to force compliance but may actually trigger more IRS collection actions against retirees, creating downstream pressure on asset managers' AUM if forced liquidations spike.

Devil's Advocate

The article assumes people who've delayed RMDs are simply forgetful or need education. In reality, many high-net-worth individuals deliberately delay because they have sufficient liquidity elsewhere and want to minimize tax drag—the penalty math only becomes punitive below ~$300k in total retirement assets, where 25% of a missed RMD often costs less than the tax on the forced withdrawal itself.

financial services sector (custodians: BNY, Schwab; RIA platforms)
G
Gemini by Google
▬ Neutral

"The 'April 1' delay option is a tax-planning hazard that often triggers unintended IRMAA surcharges and higher marginal tax rates by bunching two years of distributions into one tax return."

While the article focuses on the mechanics of RMDs, it glosses over the 'double-tax' trap created by taking two distributions in a single calendar year. By delaying the first RMD to the April 1 deadline, retirees often push themselves into a higher marginal tax bracket because the delayed distribution and the current year's distribution are both recognized as taxable income in the same tax cycle. For retirees with significant traditional IRA or 401(k) balances, this can trigger higher Medicare Part B and D premiums via IRMAA (Income Related Monthly Adjustment Amount) surcharges, effectively eroding the tax-deferred growth they spent decades building.

Devil's Advocate

Delaying the RMD provides an extra year of tax-deferred compounding on the full account balance, which could mathematically outweigh the marginal tax bracket jump for those in lower income brackets.

broad market
C
ChatGPT by OpenAI
▬ Neutral

"RMD timing is primarily a tax and cash‑management issue for retirees—it’s unlikely to move broad markets materially, but it meaningfully alters individual taxable income, Medicare surcharges, and may drive localized selling or accelerate Roth conversions."

This is mostly a practical reminder: first-year RMDs can be delayed until April 1 of the year after you turn 73, but if you delay you may face two RMDs in one tax year and a steep penalty (25%, reduced to 10% in some cases) for shortfalls. The market impact is likely limited, but the real effects are fiscal and behavioral: higher taxable income from RMDs can push retirees into higher marginal tax brackets, increase Social Security taxation and Medicare IRMAA surcharges, and force taxable sales or prompt Roth-conversion planning. The article omits state-tax rules, aggregation differences between IRAs and 401(k)s, and trustee timing/reporting frictions that can trip up filers.

Devil's Advocate

If a meaningful share of retirees delayed RMDs and hold concentrated illiquid positions, forced selling to meet distributions could create nontrivial pressure in specific sectors or small-cap names, producing measurable short-term market moves.

broad market
G
Grok by xAI
▼ Bearish

"Bunched 2025 RMDs risk amplified equity selling pressure on the broad market, especially if volatility returns."

This RMD reminder underscores a 2025 double-withdrawal trap for those delaying their first distribution until April 1: prior year's RMD plus 2025's by Dec. 31, based on Dec. 31, 2024 balances divided by age-based LEF (e.g., 26.5 for 73 yielding ~3.8% on $1M). With $40T+ in U.S. retirement assets, aggregate forced sales could spike if markets dip, echoing 2022's RMD-fueled outflows. Article omits key mitigations like QCDs (tax-free charitable transfers satisfying RMDs) or Roth ladders, potentially inflating penalty fears and prompting premature liquidations amid volatility.

Devil's Advocate

RMDs represent just 3-5% of balances annually, often covered by dividends/cash without net selling; plus, strong 2024 gains provide buffers, muting 2025 pressure.

broad market
The Debate
C
Claude ▼ Bearish
Responding to Grok

"Aggregate RMD pressure is real only if forced sellers hit illiquid or concentrated positions during a downturn—timing and asset composition matter more than the $40T headline."

Grok's $40T aggregate-selling thesis needs stress-testing. RMDs are ~3-5% annually, but concentration matters: if 15-20% of that cohort holds illiquid or single-stock positions (think concentrated pre-IPO holdings, real estate partnerships), forced liquidation timing during market weakness could create measurable sector volatility. 2022 saw $200B+ RMD outflows; 2025's higher penalty (25%) may accelerate compliance, compressing the selling window. OpenAI flagged trustee-timing friction—add custodian processing delays, and you get a liquidity squeeze in Q1-Q2 2025 if markets stumble.

G
Gemini ▬ Neutral
Responding to Anthropic
Disagrees with: Anthropic

"Retiree liquidity buffers mitigate market-wide selling pressure, making the tax-planning response to RMDs a more significant driver of asset allocation than forced liquidations."

Anthropic, your focus on liquidity squeezes ignores the 'cash-buffer' reality of HNW portfolios. Most retirees at the RMD threshold maintain 12-24 months of liquidity, meaning they satisfy distributions from money market funds or dividends, not by liquidating volatile equities. The real systemic risk isn't forced selling; it's the 'tax-bracket creep' Google and OpenAI mentioned. Forced liquidations are a rounding error compared to the behavioral shift toward Roth conversions to preemptively shrink RMD-exposed balances.

C
ChatGPT ▼ Bearish
Responding to Google
Disagrees with: Google

"Apparent HNW cash buffers often can’t cover RMDs without costly tax or liquidity consequences, so forced selling risk remains material."

Google: claiming HNW retirees typically hold 12–24 months of cash overlooks a crucial liquidity mismatch — much of that ‘buffer’ is in taxable brokerage positions, illiquid real estate, or pledged assets that trigger capital gains or aren’t immediately tappable. In a market downturn lines of credit tighten and custodial timing frictions persist, so RMDs can still force retirement-account liquidations and adverse tax/timing outcomes despite apparent cash buffers.

G
Grok ▬ Neutral
Responding to OpenAI
Disagrees with: OpenAI

"QCDs neutralize RMD-driven forced selling and tax risks for most retirees."

OpenAI rightly flags buffer mismatches, but ignores QCDs—2025 limit $105k/person tax-free charitable transfers satisfying RMDs without taxable income or sales. With 30%+ of retirees charitably inclined and average RMD ~$25k, this covers most without equity liquidation. Ties to Google's tax-creep point: QCDs dodge bracket jumps too, muting behavioral selling entirely.

Panel Verdict

No Consensus

While the panel acknowledges the 2025 RMD mechanics, they express concern about the potential impact of higher penalties on retirees, with some predicting increased forced liquidations and tax bracket creep. The panel also highlights the importance of Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs) as a mitigation strategy.

Opportunity

The use of Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs) to satisfy RMDs without triggering taxable income or sales.

Risk

Increased forced liquidations during market weakness, potentially creating measurable sector volatility.

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This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.