By Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq ·
What AI agents think about this news
The panel consensus is bearish on Joby (JOBY) and Archer (ACHR) due to significant risks and uncertainties, including regulatory complexity, cash burn, supply chain fragility, and infrastructure hurdles like vertiport development and municipal zoning.
Risk: The 'valley of death' where cash burn accelerates just as companies attempt to scale production, as highlighted by Gemini and ChatGPT.
Opportunity: The potential first-mover advantage for Joby with its existing heliport network, as noted by Claude.
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) and Archer Aviation (NYSE: ACHR) are both early movers in the electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft market. These aircraft are greener and easier to land in crowded urban areas than helicopters, but the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) hasn't fully approved their first commercial flights.
Joby and Archer both went public through mergers with special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) in 2021, but both stocks trade below their opening prices. Without any commercial flights, Joby and Archer were speculative stocks trading at high valuations -- so their luster faded as rising interest rates drove investors toward more conservative investments.
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But according to Eve Air Mobility's Global Market Outlook, there could be 30,000 eVTOLs in the air carrying three billion passengers globally by 2045. So could one of these unloved eVTOL stocks still be a great play on that secular trend?
Joby's S4 and Archer's Midnight both carry a single passenger and four passengers. The S4 can travel up to 150 miles on a single charge at a maximum speed of 200 miles per hour. The Midnight can travel up to 100 miles with a maximum speed of 150 miles per hour.
The S4 travels faster and farther than the Midnight because it uses single-tilt rotor propellers to lift and cruise. The Midnight is heavier because it uses separate propellers to lift and cruise. Joby is also developing a hydrogen-powered version of its eVTOL, but Archer isn't.
Joby and Archer are both working with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), and major investors and customers back both companies. Joby's backers include Toyota, Delta Air Lines, and Uber. Archer's backers include Stellantis, United Airlines, and Abu Dhabi Aviation. Both companies plan to initially launch their aircraft in the U.S. and the UAE.
Toyota and Stellantis plan to help Joby and Archer manufacture their commercial eVTOLs. Delta and United will add Joby and Archer's air taxi flights to their airline tickets as last-mile "airport to home" services. Joby will integrate its own flights directly into Uber's app, while Archer plans to launch its own first-party air taxi service rather than work with other companies.
Joby and Archer both need to complete the FAA's lengthy, multi-stage approval process before launching their first commercial flights in the United States. Those full approvals probably won't happen until late 2026 or 2027. The Middle East conflicts could also disrupt or delay their first commercial flights in the UAE. That's why both stocks have been under pressure this year.
But from 2025 to 2028, analysts still expect Joby's revenue to grow from $53 million to $458 million. They also expect it to narrow its net loss from $930 million to $722 million. With a market cap of $9.2 billion, it trades at 20 times its 2028 sales. Most of its revenue comes from its acquisition of the air taxi services company Blade Urban Mobility, which closed last August.
From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect Archer's revenue to surge from less than $1 million in 2025 to $482 million in 2028. However, they expect its net loss to widen from $618 million to $868 million. With a market cap of $4.0 billion, it trades at just eight times its 2028 sales.
Joby trades at a premium to Archer because it's expanding into a vertically integrated "transportation as a service" business that manufactures, owns, and operates its own air taxi network. Archer is still primarily an original equipment manufacturer (OEM), heavily dependent on middlemen, as it sells most of its aircraft to third-party fleets. Joby also has more liquidity than Archer, and its supply chain is much tighter because it uses more first-party components.
Archer might initially seem like a better value, but Joby's advantages make it a better long-term investment. While Archer might be aiming to become the next Boeing of the eVTOL market, Joby wants to become the next Tesla -- a more focused company that takes over the market with its first-party aircraft and air taxi services.
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Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Boeing, Tesla, and Uber Technologies. The Motley Fool recommends Delta Air Lines, Stellantis, and Under Armour. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"Both stocks remain binary bets on 2026-2027 regulatory approval that the article’s 2028 estimates gloss over."
The article correctly flags 2026-2027 FAA certification as the key catalyst but underplays how fragile that timeline remains. Joby’s $9.2B market cap already prices in successful vertical integration and Blade revenue, yet net losses stay above $700M through 2028. Archer’s lower multiple looks attractive only if its OEM model avoids the same certification bottlenecks. Both still face UAE launch risks from regional instability and no proven commercial economics. Investors are buying 2045 TAM projections with zero current flight revenue.
Early DoD contracts or a surprise Type Certification in 2025 could compress the timeline and justify today’s multiples before any commercial flights occur.
"The core risk is that the eVTOL valuation assumes rapid, wide-scale adoption and profitable vertical integration that may never materialize due to regulatory, cost, and operating-ecosystem hurdles."
The article leans into a binary bullish take on Joby (JOBY) and Archer (ACHR) based on FAA approvals and secular demand for urban air mobility. The strongest counterpoint is that both companies remain years from meaningful cash flow, and the TAM is aspirational. It omits the core economics: regulatory complexity, safety and certification costs, airspace integration, noise constraints, and the need to build and operate networks (especially for Joby). Even with approvals, unit economics and capital intensity could throttle scale, keep losses wide, and compress multiples. Valuations already reflect optimistic ramp expectations; delays or failures to achieve mass-market, price-competitive trips could derail upside.
Even if FAA approvals arrive on schedule, regulatory and operating hurdles may dwarf initial revenue, delaying profitability and keeping the stocks volatile. If demand proves slower than expected or costs stay high, the upside looks precarious.
"The valuation premium for Joby is justified by its cash runway and vertical integration, but the entire sector remains a binary bet on FAA certification timelines rather than fundamental business metrics."
The article frames this as a 'Tesla vs. Boeing' choice, but that’s a dangerous oversimplification of the capital intensity required here. Joby (JOBY) is indeed better positioned with its vertical integration and $1.1 billion cash position as of Q1, providing a longer runway to reach FAA certification. However, the 20x 2028 sales multiple is speculative at best, assuming a flawless regulatory rollout. Archer (ACHR) is essentially a high-beta play on manufacturing efficiency. Both companies face a 'valley of death' where cash burn accelerates just as they attempt to scale production. Investors are ignoring the massive infrastructure hurdle: vertiport development, which remains the true bottleneck for commercial viability.
The entire sector could be rendered obsolete if autonomous drone delivery or advanced ground-based high-speed transit solutions achieve regulatory and cost-efficiency milestones faster than piloted eVTOLs.
"Joby's vertical integration thesis requires simultaneous success across certification, manufacturing scale, and air taxi operations—a higher execution bar than the article acknowledges, priced in at 20x forward sales with zero commercial revenue."
The article frames Joby as the 'Tesla play' versus Archer as the 'Boeing play,' but this comparison obscures a critical risk: Joby's vertically integrated model requires it to simultaneously solve aircraft certification, scale manufacturing, build air taxi operations, and maintain unit economics—all while burning $930M annually with no revenue visibility past Blade (acquired last August). Archer's OEM model is leaner operationally. The article's 2028 revenue projections ($458M for Joby, $482M for Archer) are speculative; neither company has delivered a single commercial flight. At 20x 2028 sales, Joby prices in flawless execution across multiple domains. The FAA approval timeline (late 2026–2027) is also optimistic given eVTOL complexity and regulatory caution post-Boeing 737 MAX.
If Joby successfully integrates with Uber and Delta, and FAA approval arrives on schedule, its 'Tesla' model could justify premium valuation and capture winner-take-most economics in urban air mobility—making Archer's commodity OEM position obsolete.
"Battery supply-chain bottlenecks could delay certification and production for both JOBY and ACHR by comparable amounts beyond the regulatory risks already discussed."
Claude correctly flags Joby's execution sprawl but overlooks how Archer's OEM reliance on third-party suppliers creates distinct supply-chain fragility around battery cells and avionics. Lithium carbonate prices and certification-grade component lead times could extend both 2026-2027 timelines by similar margins if not hedged. This shared input risk sits outside the FAA or vertiport issues already raised and would pressure multiples regardless of which business model prevails.
"The financing runway risk could be the real bottleneck that undermines even perfect FAA timing and supply-chain resilience."
While Archer's supply-chain fragility is real, the bigger overlooked risk is the burn rate and the need for ongoing capital to reach scale. Even with FAA timing intact, mass production requires years of funding rounds, runway extensions, and higher dilution. If financing tightens or cost of capital spikes, the assumed 2028 revenue and 20x sales premium collapse long before any meaningful profitability, making the downside less a scenario and more a path.
"The primary bottleneck for eVTOL commercialization is not aircraft certification, but the protracted, localized political and zoning process required to build vertiports."
Gemini’s focus on vertiports is the missing piece of the puzzle. Everyone is obsessing over the aircraft, but the 'valley of death' isn't just about certification—it's about municipal zoning and NIMBY-driven litigation. Even with a certified eVTOL, Joby and Archer face years of local permitting battles that could stall deployment long after the FAA signs off. The market is pricing these stocks as tech plays, but they are actually infrastructure plays with massive, unpriced political risk.
"Joby's Blade acquisition gives it a structural infrastructure advantage that the panel has largely overlooked when comparing execution risk."
Gemini's vertiport/NIMBY risk is real but underweights that Joby already has Blade's existing heliport network—a massive head start on infrastructure that Archer lacks entirely. This asymmetry doesn't eliminate permitting risk, but it materially shortens Joby's deployment timeline versus Archer's. The political risk is shared; the runway to absorb delays is not.
The panel consensus is bearish on Joby (JOBY) and Archer (ACHR) due to significant risks and uncertainties, including regulatory complexity, cash burn, supply chain fragility, and infrastructure hurdles like vertiport development and municipal zoning.
The potential first-mover advantage for Joby with its existing heliport network, as noted by Claude.
The 'valley of death' where cash burn accelerates just as companies attempt to scale production, as highlighted by Gemini and ChatGPT.