Far more countries face critical food insecurity if world heats up by 2C, analysis shows

The number of countries falling into critical food insecurity could almost triple to 24 if global temperatures increase by 2C, research has shown.
Analysis by the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) shows the climate crisis will disproportionately affect food systems in poorer nations, widening the gap between the most and least vulnerable countries.
Although global heating will increase the risk of food insecurity worldwide, food systems in low-income countries are projected to deteriorate seven times as fast as those in wealthy nations.
Ritu Bharadwaj, a researcher for the IIED and author of the study, said: “Countries already facing poverty, fragility and limited safety nets are projected to see the fastest deterioration in food systems, despite having contributed the least to global emissions.
“Today, nearly 59% of the world’s population already lives in countries with below average food security, and our projections show that climate change is likely to widen this gap.”
This can be prevented, Bharadwaj said, by “strengthening social protection systems that can respond quickly to climate shocks, investing in climate resilient agriculture and improving water and soil management”.
She added: “Food systems today are deeply interconnected. Climate shocks in one major producing region can ripple through global supply chains and trigger price volatility elsewhere. Even if high-income countries remain relatively food secure, they will not be insulated from the impacts of climate instability on global food markets.”
The IIED developed a Food Security Index for 162 countries. It measures the systematic vulnerability of a country’s entire food system and estimates how climate breakdown could affect it under three scenarios: if global temperatures increase by 1.5C, 2C and 4C above preindustrial levels.
The index also assesses the impact of climate crisis on four “pillars” of food systems – availability, accessibility, utilisation and sustainability – and shows the risk is not evenly distributed across the four.
Sustainability and utilisation are the most climate-sensitive pillars, which means early signs of climate damage will appear first in water, sanitation and health systems, making people malnourished even if food is physically present. An increase in climate risk will be also associated with a reduction in access to food, with prices rising and market disruption.
Among the worst-affected countries are countries such as Somalia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Afghanistan, Haiti and Mozambique. Under a 2C heating scenario, the analysis projects that food insecurity will increase by more than 30% in these countries, leading to acute crises and famine, while in high-income countries it would increase by 3% on average.
Across low-income countries, food insecurity is projected to increase by 22% on average, under the 2C scenario. Low-income countries are responsible for 1% of global emissions while high- and upper-middle-income nations contribute to more than 80%.
“High-income countries will experience massive agricultural shocks, but they have the wealth to buy their way out of a domestic crop failure on the global market,” Bharadwaj said.
She also referenced a report by British intelligence chiefs about threats to the country’s national security from the climate crisis, saying: “If fragile and conflict-affected states face a systemic collapse, the result is massive global instability, state collapse, and forced migration. That is the national security threat the defence chiefs have warned about.”