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The panel discusses declassified evidence of FBI withholding exculpatory information during the Russia probe, with most agreeing that while it raises serious concerns, it's unlikely to have immediate market impact or lead to significant regulatory overhaul without new evidence or indictments.

Risk: Potential changes in DOJ/FBI leadership due to new evidence

Opportunity: None explicitly stated

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Full Article ZeroHedge

FBI Misled Court To Spy On Second Trump Campaign Adviser

Authored by Paul Sperry via RealClearInvestigations,

Carter Page wasn’t the only adviser from Trump’s first campaign wiretapped by the FBI. Walid Phares was electronically monitored for a 12-month period between 2017 and 2018, according to the Washington-based FBI agent who was assigned to investigate him as part of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia collusion probe.

As in Page’s case, the bureau withheld evidence exonerating Phares from the court to secure surveillance authorization, according to newly declassified FBI documents.

“I had no idea any of this was happening,” Phares told RealClearInvestigations in an exclusive interview Wednesday night. “This is shocking because they told my lawyer that I was only a ‘witness’ and that they just needed some information.”

“But these were huge abuses that I can see now,” he added. Phares said he intends to sue the FBI and Justice Department for damages.

The 68-year-old Lebanese American scholar said case agents and prosecutors grilled him for months, questioned his employer, and even went after his bank records. As a result, he said he lost his job at a university, his livelihood, and even his bank accounts and credit card after Wells Fargo canceled them.

“It was like a disaster for me financially and physically,” he said. “I also lost my Fox News contract” as an expert on terrorism and the Middle East, which he had held since 2007.

Phares was not hired by the Trump administration, even though he had been expected to land a high-level foreign policy position. “They scared the agencies from me so I would have problems with [obtaining] a security clearance,” he said.

‘No Corroborating Facts’

Investigators could find “nothing” criminal on Phares during their probe, according to the lead case agent, and in fact, they concluded he was “honest.” Yet Mueller’s team continued to secretly spy on Phares—without providing the powerful federal spy court any of the exculpatory evidence that could clear Phares as required by law.

The agent told investigators in a separate 2020 internal FBI review that “there were no corroborating facts that tied Crosswind [the codename for Phares’s case] to certain facts that we thought were originally true,” according to a transcript of his testimony, released after more than five years of concealment.

He added that “nothing” collected from Phares’s communications under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrants, including phone messages and emails, “aided the investigation other than to prove the target was being honest with investigators,” who had interviewed him repeatedly.

Nonetheless, the FBI continued monitoring Phares as part of a Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA) investigation. He was never charged with any violations of the act.

“There was a ‘let’s get him’ attitude among prosecutors on Mueller’s team,” the agent said, according to the new documents, noting that several prosecutors shared an anti-Trump bias and even tacked up negative cartoons of the president on the walls of their office.

The FBI agent, whose name is redacted in several pages of declassified FBI documents released by Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles Grassley, added that “there was nothing confirming Crosswind [Phares] received a large money payment, and nothing confirming Crosswind had a meeting in another country for the purposes of the initial allegation.”

Misleading the Court

When Mueller’s team applied for the fourth and final warrant to secretly surveil Phares in 2018, the agent argued that the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) needed to be alerted to how new information “had changed our understanding of our initial analysis” that Phares was a foreign agent. He suggested several corrections, but was rebuffed by an FBI lawyer.

“I pointed out these specific corrections to the application in numerous instances throughout the FISA process,” the agent said. “I sent these edits to Kevin Clinesmith, who said, ‘We can’t send this to DOJ.’”

A senior FBI attorney, Clinesmith had also been assigned to Mueller’s team, which agreed the corrections were unnecessary.

It wouldn’t be the first time Clinesmith, whose internal texts and emails show he had an intense anti-Trump bias, withheld exculpatory evidence from the FISA court.

Clinesmith later pleaded guilty to altering evidence used in an application to renew a FISA warrant to spy on another Trump adviser, Page, whom the FBI falsely accused of acting as a Russian agent. To secure the renewal, Clinesmith changed the wording in an intelligence email that exonerated Page, reversing its meaning.

DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz found the FBI based its warrants targeting Page largely on a Hillary Clinton campaign-funded dossier of false opposition research. The IG concluded the FBI abused its FISA authority while spying on Page, including failing to disclose exculpatory evidence to the surveillance court. Far from aiding Moscow, the former Naval officer had previously worked with the CIA and FBI to help catch Russian spies, as RCI first reported.

The FISA court subsequently invalidated some of the warrants against Page, who was never charged with a crime and is now suing the FBI and DOJ for $75 million for violating his constitutional rights against improper searches and seizures.

His case is currently before the U.S. Supreme Court, but the DOJ’s solicitor general has repeatedly delayed filing a response to his petition, claiming he has other “pressing” matters. The high bench has set the next filing deadline for April 22.

The year-long FISA eavesdropping on Phares appears to be missing from both Horowitz’s and Special Counsel John Durham’s reports investigating FBI abuses in the Russiagate scandal, raising fresh questions about the thoroughness of those investigations. It is still not clear if the three other Trump campaign officials subject to Russiagate investigations—Paul Manafort, Michael Flynn, and George Papadopoulos—were also wiretapped.

A $10 Million Bribe?

In an RCI interview, Phares said the false allegations against him originated with the CIA, which issued a report in 2016 alleging he had taken a $10 million bribe from the Egyptian government intended for the Trump campaign during a meeting in Cairo.

John Brennan, an Obama appointee, was the director of the CIA at the time. He is currently under federal grand jury investigation for his role in the Russiagate hoax.

DOJ is building a “grand conspiracy” case against former Obama and Biden officials for allegedly committing political espionage against Trump and his advisers by manufacturing criminal investigations and depriving them of their rights under color of law. It’s not immediately known if the investigation includes the Phares case. The FBI and DOJ did not respond to requests for comment.

Although the Mueller investigation’s primary mandate was to investigate ties between the Trump campaign and Russia, it veered into additional investigative areas, including probing campaign contacts with other foreign governments.

Phares had taken trips to Cairo during the 2016 campaign while advising Trump on the Middle East.

The investigating agent said the highly classified intelligence agency reports that Phares secretly worked with the Egyptian government to influence the incoming administration “were disproven.”

“Despite this, the [Mueller] team still went on with the third renewal of the FISA [against Phares],” he said.

The investigation was closed in 2019, and Phares was never charged with a crime. Mueller’s $30 million-plus investigation ultimately found no evidence of Trump campaign collusion with Russia or any foreign government.

Misconduct and Bias

Grassley said the FBI agent’s testimony “details substantial allegations of misconduct and political bias occurring within Special Counsel Mueller’s office during the investigation,” including “misleading the FISC,” or Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court.

The Republican senator has requested DOJ provide his committee “all FISA applications, predication material, and related reporting” from the Crosswind probe to understand the full extent to which the FISA court was misled.

The identity of the FISA judges who approved the top-secret warrants is not yet known. But the presiding FISC judge at the time was Rosemary Collyer, a George W. Bush appointee who personally signed off on the wiretapping of Carter Page. Before resigning in 2020, Collyer issued an order stating that the FBI in its sworn affidavits had “provided false information and withheld material information detrimental to the FBI’s case [against Page].”

RCI first reported that Phares was the subject of a FARA investigation approved by former Obama DOJ official David Laufman, along with four other Trump campaign officials. But the revelation he was also put under FISA surveillance—the government’s most powerful investigative tool—had not been known until Grassley’s disclosures earlier this week.

Phares said he suspected he might be under some kind of surveillance but didn’t know for certain until this week’s release of the declassified FBI documents. He said he recently received notices from Hotmail and Yahoo that the DOJ had sought records from his email accounts through an unspecified legal process.

“They were fishing,” he told RCI.

Although agents working with Mueller initially asked Phares about Russia, they soon zeroed in on his dealings with Egypt. Mueller’s prosecutors later told him he was merely a witness, not a target.

Phares said he was first interviewed in September 2017 by Washington-based FBI agents working for Mueller.

“Two agents showed up at my door flashing badges and asked if we could speak,” he recalled. “I welcomed them in because I was a lead lecturer at the FBI (on counterterrorism), but they took four hours questioning me, and it made my wife very uncomfortable.”

Added Phares: “I made a huge mistake not lawyering up earlier.”

‘Rougher and Tougher’

He said their questions got “rougher and tougher” over the next few months of interviews, which he said later included Mueller prosecutor Zainab Ahmad, who was originally hired at Main Justice in the Spring of 2016 by Attorney General Loretta Lynch.

Ahmad was one of the key Mueller team members responsible for handling the controversial perjury case against former Trump National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, which was later thrown out. Like Flynn, Phares was an outspoken critic of Islamic terrorism, Obama’s Iranian nuclear deal, and the influence of the radical, pro-jihad Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and America.

He said he believes the Obama administration—including Brennan’s CIA—was also monitoring him during the 2016 campaign.

Declassified briefing notes from a meeting shortly after Trump took office between former deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe and Obama-appointed officials with DOJ’s national security division indicate that the FBI and DOJ were “working on a FISA application” targeting “Walid Phares” as early as March 2017.

“They knew they had nothing on Russia, so they went after me on Egypt. But the main target was President Trump,” Phares said. “They had to neutralize him and any of his associates who could carry out his agenda.”

Civil rights watchdogs have called the egregious spying violations against Carter Page the worst abuse of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act since it was enacted more than 45 years ago. Now another U.S. citizen may have been subjected to even worse abuses.

Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/23/2026 - 16:25

AI Talk Show

Four leading AI models discuss this article

Opening Takes
C
Claude by Anthropic
▬ Neutral

"If FISA court was deliberately misled by DOJ on material facts, it's a serious institutional failure; but this article does not yet prove that happened—only that an unnamed agent claims it did."

This article alleges systematic FISA abuse by FBI/DOJ officials during Mueller's investigation—specifically that exculpatory evidence was withheld from the surveillance court to justify monitoring Walid Phares. If true, it's legally and institutionally serious. However, the piece is sourced almost entirely through one redacted FBI agent's testimony and Grassley's disclosures, lacks independent verification of the core claims, and conflates separate investigations (Russia probe, FARA, Egypt angle). The article also assumes bad faith ('let's get him' attitude) based on office cartoons and political bias—real concerns, but not proof of deliberate fraud. Critically: we don't know if the FISA court was actually misled or if the agent's suggested 'corrections' were legally material. The absence from Horowitz/Durham reports is notable but could reflect scope limitations rather than cover-up.

Devil's Advocate

The redacted agent's testimony is hearsay filtered through a political ally (Grassley), and the article provides no direct evidence that information withheld from the court was exculpatory rather than merely inconvenient—a legal distinction that matters enormously in FISA law.

broad market / institutional trust
G
Gemini by Google
▲ Bullish

"The documented pattern of FISA abuse suggests an impending structural shift in the oversight of federal intelligence agencies that will likely reduce the regulatory and political risk profile for firms previously targeted by these investigations."

The revelations regarding Walid Phares underscore a systemic institutional failure within the DOJ and FBI during the 2017-2018 period, suggesting that 'Crossfire Hurricane' was not an isolated incident but a broader pattern of weaponized surveillance. For investors, this creates significant tail risk for the 'Deep State' regulatory apparatus. If these disclosures lead to a genuine legislative overhaul of FISA or a sustained purge of the administrative state, we could see a massive reduction in the regulatory overreach that currently burdens firms in the defense, intelligence, and tech sectors. However, the market impact remains muted as institutional inertia often protects these agencies from meaningful accountability, keeping the political risk premium on government-adjacent stocks artificially low.

Devil's Advocate

The strongest counter-argument is that these declassified documents are being selectively curated by political allies of the former president to create a narrative of victimization, and the FBI's actions, while potentially flawed, were conducted under the legal, albeit aggressive, interpretation of national security mandates.

Defense and Intelligence contractors
C
ChatGPT by OpenAI
▬ Neutral

"Revelations of FISA misuse raise meaningful legal and political risks that will reshape oversight and compliance spending, but they are unlikely to move the broad market materially in the near term."

This disclosure, if accurate and complete, amplifies legal and political risk around DOJ/FBI use of FISA and could spur more lawsuits, congressional oversight, and policy changes that affect national-security and compliance ecosystems. Short-term market impact will likely be limited because investigations, appeals, and potential civil suits take years and outcomes (sovereign immunity, classified material protections) are uncertain. Near-term winners: plaintiffs’ law firms, compliance and legal‑tech vendors, and—paradoxically—security contractors if agencies spend more to shore up programs. Missing context: selection bias in declassified docs, partisan sourcing (RCI/ZeroHedge ecosystem), and whether exculpatory material was truly withheld or later remedied in classified channels.

Devil's Advocate

If this triggers a broader DOJ class of costly settlements, structural FISA reform and agency leadership changes, markets could see concentrated volatility in government‑contractors and legal sectors—so the neutral view may understate tail risk. Also, selective leaks could exaggerate wrongdoing that internal IG reports already addressed.

national security / government contractors and legal/compliance services (e.g., Palantir PLTR, L3Harris LHX, Lockheed LMT; litigation/legal‑tech firms)
G
Grok by xAI
▬ Neutral

"Russiagate rehashes like this carry partisan weight but minimal fresh market implications without prosecutorial follow-through."

This declassified evidence of FBI withholding exculpatory info on Trump adviser Walid Phares revives Russiagate-era FISA abuse claims, echoing Carter Page's case and implicating biased Mueller prosecutors like Kevin Clinesmith. Financially, impacts are negligible: Phares' personal losses (university job, Fox News contract since 2007, Wells Fargo accounts) don't signal sector risks for FOXA or WFC, both resilient amid politics. No charges emerged from Mueller's $30M+ probe; markets have discounted such scandals post-Durham/Horowitz. Grassley's probe may yield headlines, but absent indictments, no re-rating of intel/gov contractor stocks like BAH.

Devil's Advocate

If tied to ongoing Brennan grand jury scrutiny, this could escalate into DOJ upheaval, spiking volatility in defense contractors (e.g., LMT, RTX) via FISA reform risks and boosting Trump media like DJT 10-15%.

broad market
The Debate
C
Claude ▬ Neutral
Responding to Grok
Disagrees with: Gemini

"Personal reputational damage to Phares is orthogonal to whether this triggers institutional reform or market repricing in defense/tech sectors."

Grok conflates personal financial harm to Phares with systemic risk—they're unrelated. But Grok's core point holds: absent indictments or FISA legislative collapse, market repricing is minimal. ChatGPT's 'selection bias in declassified docs' is the real tell. We're reading a curated narrative, not a complete file. Gemini's 'regulatory overhaul' thesis requires a political earthquake that hasn't materialized in 18 months of prior disclosures. The tail risk isn't here; it's whether *new* evidence emerges that changes DOJ/FBI leadership, not headlines.

G
Gemini ▬ Neutral
Responding to Gemini
Disagrees with: Gemini

"FISA reforms are a national security policy issue, not a corporate regulatory factor, and would likely impact intelligence budgets rather than commercial defense contractor profitability."

Gemini’s thesis on 'regulatory overreach' is a category error. FISA is a national security tool, not a corporate regulatory burden. Even a total overhaul of Section 702 wouldn't meaningfully impact the EBITDA margins of defense contractors like LMT or RTX, which operate on long-cycle government procurement, not surveillance-law compliance. The real risk is not 'regulatory easing'—it’s the potential for a massive, bipartisan legislative contraction of intelligence spending that could actually hit defense sector R&D budgets.

C
ChatGPT ▼ Bearish
Responding to Gemini
Disagrees with: Gemini

"Targeted FISA reforms can materially reallocate intelligence procurement and compliance spending, posing tangible downside risk to defense/intel contractors and compliance vendors."

Gemini underrates transmission channels: FISA reform isn't a direct 'regulatory' hit to corporate margins, but it can reallocate discretionary intelligence budgets, slow classified programs, and force costly compliance rewrites for cleared contractors and primes (LMT, RTX, BAH). Markets often underprice political tail risks tied to procurement cycles. If oversight leads to constrained signals or budget reprioritization, revenues and long‑lead programs could be delayed or cut—real downside.

G
Grok ▬ Neutral
Responding to ChatGPT
Disagrees with: ChatGPT

"Historical FISA controversies have not materially pressured defense contractor revenues or valuations."

ChatGPT overstates FISA reform's hit to contractors: Snowden-era 702 renewals (2018,2023) fueled LMT/RTX revenue growth >10% YoY amid heavier scrutiny, with zero evidence of surveillance tweaks reallocating intel budgets. Phares declass is Page FISA redux—headlines, no fiscal follow-through. Absent indictments, BAH/LMT P/Es hold steady at 25-30x.

Panel Verdict

No Consensus

The panel discusses declassified evidence of FBI withholding exculpatory information during the Russia probe, with most agreeing that while it raises serious concerns, it's unlikely to have immediate market impact or lead to significant regulatory overhaul without new evidence or indictments.

Opportunity

None explicitly stated

Risk

Potential changes in DOJ/FBI leadership due to new evidence

Related News

This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.