Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady As Iran War Stokes Inflation And Clouds Outlook

Fed Holds Interest Rates Steady As Iran War Stokes Inflation And Clouds Outlook

Diccon Hyatt

7 min read

Key Takeaways

The Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, the same level it's been since December.

The Iran war has dashed hopes for rate cuts this year, as Fed officials are firmly in "wait and see" mode to determine the Iran War's impact on inflation.

Wednesday's meeting was likely the last with Chair Jerome Powell in charge at the central bank, though he said he plans to stay on as a Fed governor.

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Two things at the Federal Reserve are staying right where they are—the central bank's key interest rate, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who said he's retaining his seat as governor after his eight-year term as chair ends.

The Federal Reserve's policy committee voted Wednesday to keep the central bank's key interest rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, the same level it's been all year, to wait and see how the Iran war's shockwaves hit the economy in the coming months. Powell also said he was staying on the Fed's seven-person board of governors after his term expires May 15, extending a conflict between himself and President Donald Trump over the independence of the central bank from control of the White House.

Between those two developments, Wednesday's meeting marked a tumultuous end to Powell's tenure as Fed chair. Four officials voted against the majority of members of the Fed's policy committee, the most dissents since 1992, in an indication of the unpredictable economic and political crosswinds the Fed is trying to navigate.

Monetary Policy In The Shadow Of War

By disrupting supplies of oil and other commodities from the Middle East, the war against Iran has sharply pushed up energy prices and alarmed Fed officials about the possibility of inflation accelerating. Concerns about war-related price hikes haves shaken Fed officials' confidence that inflation was subsiding down to the central bank's goal of a 2% annual rate, leading financial markets to all but abandon hopes of rate cuts this year. The fed funds rate influences borrowing costs on all kinds of loans, and serves as the Fed's main tool for pursuing its dual mandate to keep inflation low and employment high.

"Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," the Federal Open Market Committee said it its post-meeting statement.

What This Means For The Economy

The Fed faces threats to both of its key goals—keeping a lid on inflation and promoting employment—as the Iran war has sent fuel prices skyrocketing, which could weigh on the economy broadly and curtail hiring.

Among the members of the Federal Open Market Committee, only Fed Governor Stephen Miran voted in favor of cutting interest rates, the same as he has done at every meeting since taking office in September. In a surprise, three FOMC members voted in favor of holding rates but objected to language included in the committee's statement indicating the Fed was more inclined to lower rates in the coming months than to raise them.

“The Fed’s updated guidance indicates that it’s in a stable place when it comes to policy direction, although some members pushed for more two-sided language," Kay Haigh, global co-head of Fixed Income and Liquidity Solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, wrote in a commentary. "While upside risks to inflation have increased, the Fed is keeping one eye on potential weakness in growth and the labor market."

At a post-meeting press conference, Powell clarified the dissenters were not in favor of raising rates right away, but wanted to adopt a neutral stance, leaving open the possibility of both hikes or cuts as the situation develops. Currently, the FOMC statement refers to potentially making "additional adjustments," to the fed funds rate, a subtle indication that such adjustments could be cuts, since the Fed's most recent movement of the rate was in a downward direction last December.

Has Fed Independence Been Put at Risk?

The Fed's two-day policy meeting that concluded Wednesday was likely the last with Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the helm, but not his last as a Fed official. A Senate committee vote Wednesday cleared the way for Kevin Warsh, the nominee of President Donald Trump, to take over for Powell when his term ends May 15, ahead of the Fed's next meeting in June. However, Powell said he'll still be part of the committee that sets interest rates. Powell said he wasn't leaving until a Justice Department criminal investigation of his management of a renovation project at the central bank's headquarters ended for good.

"After my term as chair ends on May 15, I will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time to be determined," he said. "I'm waiting for the investigation to be well and truly over with finality and transparency. I am waiting for that, and I will leave when I think it's appropriate to do so,"

Although the Justice Department dropped the investigation in question, the attorney in charge of it said it could be restarted at some point in the future.

The investigation into cost overruns in the Fed's ongoing renovation project is a flashpoint in a power struggle between the Fed and Trump over how independent the Fed should be from direct control of the White House. (Coincidentally, the building at the center of the controversy is named after Marriner S. Eccles, the only other Fed chair to stay on as a governor after serving as Fed chair.)

Trump has repeatedly demanded the central bank sharply lower its key interest rate. Although Trump is not the first president to press the central bank to cut rates, he has taken the pressure to new extremes, repeatedly insulting Powell and threatening to fire him, and attempting to fire Fed governor Lisa Cook, in a case currently being decided by the Supreme Court.

Powell and his defenders say the investigation was part of that pressure campaign and was designed to intimidate Fed officials.

At the post-meeting press conference, Powell said the legal attacks threatened the Fed's independence from politics, which many economists say is crucial to its ability to effectively control inflation using monetary policy.

"These legal actions by the administration are unprecedented in our 113 year history, and there are ongoing threats of additional such actions," he said. "I worry that these attacks are battering the institution and putting at risk the thing that really matters to the public, which is the ability to conduct monetary policy without taking into consideration political facts."

Powell said he would keep a low profile as a Fed governor and would not act as a "shadow Fed chair" and exert outsized influence.

New Boss, Same Monetary Policy?

Financial markets largely expect the Fed to continue its "wait-and-see" approach despite the new leadership, and are pricing in only a slight chance of a rate cut by the end of the year according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, which forecasts rate movements based on fed funds futures trading data.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial waterway that normally carries 20% of the world's oil supply from the Persian Gulf to international markets, has pushed up the price of crude oil, and gasoline and diesel along with it. Gasoline prices have risen more than $1 a gallon to a national average of $4.23 from $2.98 before the war according to AAA. The spike in gasoline prices in March alone was the largest on record according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The FOMC referred to those energy prices in its statement, noting that "Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices." That sentence replaced language from its previous statement in March, which had said inflation was "somewhat elevated."

The conflict has also contributed to uncertainty among business leaders, possibly dragging on a labor market that was already in the midst of a hiring slowdown before the war began Feb. 28.

Update, April 29, 2026—This article has been updated to include an additional quote from the FOMC statement, commentary from a Goldman Sachs analyst, comments from the press conference, and information about Fed Chair Powell staying on as a governor after his term ends. It was originally published April 29, 2026.