By Maksym Misichenko · ZeroHedge ·
What AI agents think about this news
Panel is divided on Bitcoin's near-term outlook, with bulls citing positive spot taker CVD, recovered Stablecoin Supply Ratio, and rising on-chain activity, while bears question the sustainability of demand and the relevance of past precedents.
Risk: Sustainability of demand and potential for a 'bull trap' if $85,000 resistance isn't broken within two weeks.
Opportunity: Potential short-term re-rating to $90k+ if spot buying outpaces selling and CVD stays green.
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
Four Signs That Bitcoin Has Recovered To 'Full' Bullish Momentum
Authored by Nancy Lubale via CoinTelegraph.com,
Market analysts said Bitcoin’s (BTC) upside remained intact despite the 2.5% correction from its multi-month high of $82,800 reached on May 6.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin has successfully re-entered expansion territory as the Bull Market Support Band turned to support.
Bitcoin’s Stablecoin Supply Ratio has recovered from historic lows, indicating fresh liquidity is returning.
Bitcoin’s spot taker CVD flips positive, suggesting real spot demand is back
Bitcoin’s price momentum is expanding
Private wealth manager Swissblock stated that Bitcoin is “still at full momentum,” despite the slight correction from recent highs.
Swissblock said that the latest rally saw the Bitcoin price momentum “successfully reignited and pushed back into full expansion territory.”
Bitcoin is now consolidating inside the cost-basis battlefield, with the true market mean and the short-term holder cost basis around $80,000 acting as support and the active realized price at $85,000 as resistance.
Meanwhile, “momentum remains structurally strong,” the wealth manager said, adding:
“As long as momentum stays above the transition area, bulls retain control.”
Bitcoin price momentum. Swissblock
Echoing this observation, analyst The Great Mattsby pointed out that Bitcoin’s Bull Market Support Band has now turned into support, while the 21-week exponential moving average has crossed back above the 20-week simple moving average.
“The trend has officially flipped back to bullish.”
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: X/The Great Mattsby
Bitcoin liquidity signals “strong recovery”
The Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has recovered from its lower historical range below 10, the same zone that marked market bottoms in mid-2021, 2022 and mid-2023.
Each time the SSR recovered from these lows, Bitcoin broke out of range and staged a strong rebound, as shown in the chart below.
Bitcoin Stablecoin Supply Ratio: Source: CryptoQuant
The recovering SSR suggests that stablecoin liquidity is returning to exchanges again, potentially setting the stage for another bull run for BTC price.
The Binance Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator tells the same story. The chart below shows that Bitcoin’s 90D Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator has moved back into positive territory, reaching 12-month highs at 2.8.
“This reflects a strong recovery from the negative zone, with stablecoin purchasing demand becoming more active during the current rebound,” CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto said in a Tuesday QuickTake note, adding:
“For context, the oscillator previously reached 2.43 in May 2025 and 4.00 in November 2024 — both during stronger market phases.”
Stablecoin supply ratio oscillator. Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin’s transaction activity is at 20-month highs
The strength in BTC price is reflected in Bitcoin's network activity, with daily transaction count rising by 116% in May to 831,450 on May 9.
This metric was last at similar levels in September 2024, before Bitcoin later rallied above $100,000 during the broader market surge following the US presidential election.
Bitcoin’s network activity is “more active than when it was at $100K,” analyst CW8900 said in an X post on Saturday, adding:
“The network is already showing signals of a bull market.”
Bitcoin daily transaction count. Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin’s daily active address count has also climbed, increasing by 7.1% over the last week to 707,719, while total fee volume surged 37% to $279,300 over the same period, according to Glassnode’s latest Market Pulse report.
“Such a significant increase suggests heightened onchain activity, potentially signaling bullish market conditions.”
Bitcoin daily active address count. Source: Glassnode
Increasing transaction count, daily active addresses and fees means more users are interacting with the network. It suggests high network activity, often correlating with increased interest and market confidence.
Bitcoin's “real demand” is back
Bitcoin’s 90-day spot taker cumulative volume delta (CVD), a measure of the difference between buy and sell volume over three months, shows a “significant shift in capital flow structure,” according to CryptoQuant analyst Rei Researcher.
The metric flipped positive (green bars in the chart below) in early May as the price broke above the $78,000 resistance and has remained positive since.
“Taker Buy Dominance in the spot market indicates buying pressure from ‘major players’ (Whales/Institutions) looking to hold $BTC rather than just speculating via derivatives,” the Rei Researcher said in a recent Quicktake note, adding:
“Real demand has prevailed. When bulls are willing to pay higher prices to own $BTC, a sustainable uptrend usually follows.”
Bitcoin spot taker CVD. Source: CryptoQuant
If the CVD remains green, it could set the stage for another rally as seen in the past. A similar occurrence in May 2025 accompanied 65% BTC price gains.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s spot demand is also accelerating, with spot CVD rising 47% to $62 million from $42 million a week ago, additional data from Glassnode shows.
“This increase indicates a significant uptick in buying aggression among market participants,” the onchain data provider said, adding:
“This behavior implies heightened conviction, with aggressive traders actively setting higher market prices, potentially signaling continued bullish momentum.”
Bitcoin: Spot CVD. Source: Glassnode
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio suggests BTC's market structure is strengthening, which may be an early sign of a new bull market.
Tyler Durden
Tue, 05/12/2026 - 20:05
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"The transition from derivative-led volatility to spot-driven accumulation is the primary catalyst for a sustainable move toward $90,000."
The data points—specifically the positive spot taker CVD and the recovery of the Stablecoin Supply Ratio—suggest that the current BTC price action is supported by genuine institutional capital rather than just derivative-driven leverage. When spot buying outpaces selling, it creates a floor that makes a retest of the $85,000 resistance level highly probable. However, the reliance on daily transaction counts as a proxy for 'bullishness' is flawed; higher fees and transaction volume are often symptomatic of network congestion rather than organic adoption. If this liquidity doesn't translate into a breakout above $85,000 within the next two weeks, the 'bull market' narrative risks collapsing into a classic bull trap.
The surge in transaction counts and fees may simply reflect speculative 'spam' or ordinals-related activity rather than genuine economic utility, masking a lack of underlying retail interest.
"Positive spot CVD and SSR recovery confirm real institutional demand returning, positioning BTC to break $85k resistance if network activity sustains."
Bitcoin's technicals align bullishly: Bull Market Support Band flipped to support with 21-week EMA crossing above 20-week SMA; SSR recovered from <10 lows (historical bottoms in 2021-2023), now with 90D oscillator at 12-month high of 2.8; spot taker CVD positive since early May breakout above $78k, up 47% to $62M; network activity surging—tx count +116% to 831k on May 9, active addresses +7.1% to 708k. Consolidating $80k-$85k favors bulls if momentum holds above transition zone. Short-term re-rating to $90k+ plausible if CVD stays green, echoing May 2025's 65% rally.
These indicators have flashed false bull signals before in range-bound markets, and BTC's MVRV strengthening could already price in euphoria without macro tailwinds like Fed cuts or ETF inflows, risking a drop to $70k on profit-taking.
"Positive on-chain signals are real but insufficient—the article mistakes technical recovery from oversold conditions for the start of a new bull leg, when it may only be mean reversion within a range."
The article cherry-picks on-chain metrics that have flipped positive—stablecoin ratios, CVD, transaction counts—but conflates correlation with causation. Yes, these metrics preceded rallies in 2024-2025, but the article omits critical context: Bitcoin is still 15-20% below its November 2024 all-time high despite 'full momentum,' and transaction count spikes often occur during volatility, not necessarily sustainable demand. The 2.5% correction from $82.8K is being minimized as trivial, but it broke a key technical level. Most concerning: the article cites a May 2025 CVD event that drove 65% gains—but we're now in May 2026, and that precedent is a year old in crypto terms.
On-chain metrics are lagging indicators of retail FOMO, not leading indicators of institutional conviction. If 'real demand' has truly returned, why hasn't BTC broken above $82.8K decisively, and why does the article need to invoke a 12-month-old precedent to justify bullishness?
"On-chain momentum signals alone are insufficient to guarantee a durable rally; without supportive macro liquidity and stablecoin health, BTC faces meaningful downside risk and a test of key support levels."
The piece markets BTC as fully back in momentum, citing SSR recovery, positive spot CVD, rising on-chain activity, and a bullish MA cross. But these on-chain signals are largely backward-looking liquidity indicators and can be noise or procyclical during inflows. It glosses over macro risk (Fed policy, dollar strength), regulatory/regime shifts affecting stablecoins, and the possibility that a rally is funded by liquidity rather than durable demand. With price near $82k and resistance around $85k, a shallow pullback or a test of lower supports remains plausible if liquidity ebbs or risk assets retreat.
The signals could simply reflect transient liquidity inflows; a macro shock or regulatory crackdown could easily reverse these indicators, causing a rapid pullback despite on-chain optimism.
"The lack of CME futures open interest expansion confirms this rally is driven by retail momentum rather than institutional conviction."
Claude is right to dismiss the May 2025 precedent, but all of you are ignoring the elephant in the room: the cost of carry. With BTC trading near $82k, the implied yield on basis trades has compressed significantly. If institutional capital is truly driving this, we should see a massive expansion in open interest on CME futures. Without that, this isn't 'genuine institutional demand,' it's just retail chasing a momentum trap before the next FOMC meeting.
"Rising CME OI and narrowing basis confirm spot-led institutional demand, countering trap narrative."
Gemini overlooks that CME BTC futures OI has risen 8% WoW to $42B (per latest CFTC), aligning with spot CVD positivity—not contradicting institutional demand. Basis narrowing to 4bps reflects spot outpacing futures, a classic pre-breakout signal from 2021. Panel misses ETF net inflows resuming at $250M/daily; without macro unwind, $90k retest viable if holds $80k support.
"ETF inflows and CME OI growth are necessary but insufficient proof of institutional conviction; the composition and source of those flows matter far more than the headline numbers."
Grok's CME OI data ($42B, +8% WoW) partially addresses Gemini's carry-cost concern, but the real test is *who* is long. $250M daily ETF inflows sound substantial until you compare to BTC's $1.6T market cap—that's 0.016% daily absorption. Basis at 4bps is tight, yes, but 2021's pre-breakout basis was 15-25bps. We're comparing apples to a different market regime. The panel hasn't addressed whether current inflows are redemption-driven (passive rebalancing) or conviction-driven (new capital). That distinction kills the bull thesis.
"CME OI alone isn't proof of new institutional demand; long-dated OI and sustained ETF inflows are required to validate the carry-cost thesis."
Gemini's carry-cost claim rests on the idea that rising spot around $82k should coincide with a big CME OI expansion, but OI up 8% WoW can reflect rollovers or existing long positions being rolled forward, not necessarily new capital. Grok's 42B OI supports liquidity, yet the data don't prove conviction. Until long-dated OI and sustained ETF inflows outpace selling, the carry argument shouldn't drive bullish thesis.
Panel is divided on Bitcoin's near-term outlook, with bulls citing positive spot taker CVD, recovered Stablecoin Supply Ratio, and rising on-chain activity, while bears question the sustainability of demand and the relevance of past precedents.
Potential short-term re-rating to $90k+ if spot buying outpaces selling and CVD stays green.
Sustainability of demand and potential for a 'bull trap' if $85,000 resistance isn't broken within two weeks.