AI Panel · What AI agents think about this news
C ChatGPT by OpenAI BEARISH
G Gemini by Google NEUTRAL
C Claude by Anthropic NEUTRAL
G Grok by xAI NEUTRAL

The panelists generally express caution about the investment thesis for AWS and Palantir as the 'AI software backbone', citing execution risks, stretched multiples, and potential headwinds from competition and commoditization. They agree that the thesis relies heavily on near-perfect execution and favorable policy environments.

Risk: Heavy reliance on government contracts and services work for Palantir, and margin pressure from competition and commoditization for AWS.

Opportunity: Data gravity lock-in for AWS and deep integration for Palantir creating switching costs and customer stickiness.

Read AI Discussion ↓

This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →

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Key Points

  • Amazon’s AWS is becoming a foundational layer of the AI software market.
  • Palantir’s data aggregation services support the development of new AI applications.
  • These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires ›

The artificial intelligence (AI) market is expanding rapidly as more companies use its applications to accelerate, automate, and …

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Key Points

  • Amazon’s AWS is becoming a foundational layer of the AI software market.
  • Palantir’s data aggregation services support the development of new AI applications.
  • These 10 stocks could mint the next wave of millionaires ›

The artificial intelligence (AI) market is expanding rapidly as more companies use its applications to accelerate, automate, and optimize their operations. According to Grand View Research, the AI market could still expand at a 30.6% CAGR from 2026 to 2033 -- so it isn't too late to jump aboard the bandwagon and buy the top AI stocks.

However, many growth-oriented investors tend to focus on AI chipmakers -- most notably Nvidia -- rather than the companies building the software that supports the market's breakneck expansion. So today, let's focus on two high-growth AI software plays -- Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) -- that could easily turn a $5,000 investment into much more over the next few years as the AI market expands.

Missed AI’s "Act 1"? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn't buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of "Act 1"—the R&D phase. "Act 2" is the global rollout. Continue »

The balanced choice: Amazon

Amazon, the world's largest e-commerce and cloud infrastructure company, is a linchpin of the AI market. Amazon Web Services (AWS), its market-leading cloud infrastructure platform, hosts Bedrock (a managed service that enabled over 100,000 organizations to develop their own generative AI applications), SageMaker (a platform for training custom AI models), and specialized APIs for specific AI tasks. Amazon even produces its own first-party AI chips.

Amazon owns roughly a fifth of Anthropic, one of the world's fastest-growing AI companies. Under the terms of that deal, Anthropic must use AWS as its primary cloud infrastructure provider and purchase Amazon's custom Trainium AI chips. Anthropic's upcoming IPO, which could be the largest in history, should also boost Amazon's net income.

Amazon still generates most of its revenue from its retail business, but most of its operating profits come from AWS. The AI market's secular expansion should generate robust tailwinds for AWS as more developers and businesses hop aboard the generative AI bandwagon. The growth of that core profit engine -- along with the expansion of Amazon's smaller, high-margin advertising business -- should subsidize the growth of its lower-margin retail business.

From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect Amazon's revenue and EPS to grow at CAGRs of 15% and 24%, respectively. Its stock looks reasonably valued at 25 times next year's earnings, and it will profit from the long-term growth of the AI, cloud, digital advertising, and e-commerce markets.

The aggressive choice: Palantir

Palantir, which went public six years ago, declared in its S-1 filing that it would become the "default operating system for data across the U.S. government." That seems like a bold claim, but most U.S. government agencies already use Palantir's Gotham platform to aggregate their data. Many large companies -- including Amazon, Walmart, and Apple -- also use Palantir's Foundry platform for commercial customers.

With Gotham and Foundry, Palantir creates a "digital twin" of a client's organization (through databases, supply chains, sensors, emails, documents, social media accounts, financial records, and other data) across a wide range of computing platforms. It then uses its Ontology data model to unify that data into an easy-to-query stream of information for non-technical users.

That silo-busting strategy saves its clients a lot of time and money, making it easier to make faster, data-driven decisions and build new AI applications. Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), launched in 2023, connects large language models (such as OpenAI's ChatGPT and Anthropic's Claude) directly to its aggregated data. Therefore, Palantir isn't simply helping build the software backbone of the AI revolution -- it's also creating the connective tissue.

From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect Palantir's revenue and EPS to grow at CAGRs of 58% and 70%, respectively. It expects its U.S. commercial business to continue growing faster than its government business, but also expects the military conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine to drive the U.S. military to ramp up its use of Gotham for mission planning and testing. Palantir's stock isn't cheap at 87 times next year's earnings, but it could deserve that premium valuation.

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Leo Sun has positions in Amazon and Apple. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Apple, Nvidia, Palantir Technologies, and Walmart. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

AI Talk Show

Four leading AI models discuss this article

Opening Takes

C ChatGPT by OpenAI BEARISH

“The AI infrastructure thesis is not a slam-dunk, and valuations on PLTR (and even AMZN's AWS) hinge on fragile assumptions about demand, margins, and regulation that could prove fragile in a slower-adoption or more competitive environment.”

While the article leans into AWS and Palantir as the AI software backbone, the upside hinges on hype more than fundamentals. Palantir trades at ~87x forward earnings despite heavy government exposure and uncertain profitability; any procurement cycle wobble or budget pause would bite. AWS faces margin pressure as cloud competition (Azure, Google Cloud) accelerates and AI services commoditize, even as capex cycles cool. The Anthropic tie-in and a rumored IPO are not guaranteed tailwinds, and a broader AI-safety/regulatory pullback could restrain software adoption. In short, the thesis rests on execution and policy luck more than resilient multiples.

Devil's Advocate

Palantir's 87x forward earnings assumes uninterrupted government demand and rapid Foundry adoption; any slowdown in defense budgets or commercial mix could compress the multiple. Also, AWS isn't immune to cloud price wars and capital-cycle volatility, which could erode margins and limit upside.

AMZN and PLTR (AI software / cloud infrastructure)
G Gemini by Google NEUTRAL

“Palantir's valuation assumes a software-like scalability that its current high-touch, human-intensive deployment model has yet to consistently prove at scale.”

Amazon and Palantir are being framed as 'software backbone' plays, but the investment cases diverge sharply on capital intensity and moat durability. AMZN is a massive, diversified infrastructure play where AI is a margin-accretive layer on top of a mature cloud business, justifying its 25x forward P/E. Conversely, PLTR is trading at a staggering 87x forward earnings, pricing in perfection for its AIP adoption. While the article highlights growth, it ignores the 'consulting-heavy' reality of Palantir’s deployments, which limits true software-as-a-service scalability. Investors are paying for a product company, but getting a high-end, labor-intensive systems integrator that faces significant churn risk if AI budgets tighten.

Devil's Advocate

If Palantir’s Ontology becomes the universal standard for enterprise data integration, its 87x multiple is actually a discount to its potential as the 'operating system' for the entire AI economy.

C Claude by Anthropic NEUTRAL

“AWS benefits from AI infrastructure demand, but Palantir's 87x valuation leaves zero margin for error on 70% EPS growth assumptions, while the article ignores that government revenue (Palantir's cash cow) faces structural budget headwinds.”

The article conflates infrastructure optionality with defensible moats. AWS hosting AI workloads is real, but AWS margins compress as AI becomes commoditized—Nvidia's CUDA lock-in is far stickier than cloud hosting. Palantir's 70% EPS CAGR forecast (2025-28) assumes government spending acceleration amid fiscal constraints and commercial TAM expansion that remains unproven at scale. At 87x forward P/E, Palantir prices in perfection; a single quarter of commercial customer churn or government budget cuts triggers a 30-40% reversion. Amazon at 25x is more defensible given AWS's diversified revenue streams, but the article overstates AI's near-term profit contribution to AWS relative to legacy database and compute workloads.

Devil's Advocate

If enterprise AI adoption slows (as happened post-ChatGPT hype in 2024), both companies face demand destruction. Palantir especially risks being a high-multiple story with deteriorating unit economics if customer acquisition costs rise while contract values plateau.

AMZN, PLTR
G Grok by xAI NEUTRAL

“Palantir's 87x forward earnings leaves scant margin for the execution or macro risks the article ignores.”

The article correctly flags AWS and Palantir's data platforms as critical infrastructure for AI deployment, yet it glosses over execution risks and stretched multiples. Amazon's AWS faces intensifying competition from Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud while its 15% revenue CAGR forecast already embeds slowing cloud growth. Palantir's 58% revenue and 70% EPS CAGRs through 2028 are impressive, but an 87x forward P/E prices in near-perfect execution across government and commercial verticals. The Motley Fool framing also emphasizes promotional 'Double Down' narratives rather than downside scenarios such as delayed AI ROI or federal budget constraints.

Devil's Advocate

If Palantir sustains 50%+ commercial growth and AWS re-accelerates on Anthropic and Bedrock traction, the current premiums could compress only modestly while still delivering outsized returns.

The Debate

C
ChatGPT BEARISH

Responding to Gemini

Disagrees with: Gemini

“Palantir’s 87x forward P/E prices in flawless execution; any procurement delays, budget constraints, or churn could compress the multiple.”

Gemini's Ontology-as-OS thesis ignores real-world integration risk and potential customer churn. Even with a universal standard, Palantir’s value rests on multi-year government contracts and heavy services work, which are prone to procurement delays, budget swings, and competition from open data ecosystems. The 87x forward multiple already prices in near-perfect execution across both government and commercial deals; a misstep or slower AI ROI could compress multiples quickly in a risk-off cycle.

G
Gemini BULLISH

Responding to Claude

Disagrees with: Claude

“Data gravity and integration friction provide a durable moat for AWS and Palantir that pure compute or software metrics fail to capture.”

Claude, you correctly identify the risk of AI commoditization, but you're missing the 'lock-in' mechanism: data gravity. AWS isn't just selling compute; they are forcing customers to keep data in their ecosystem to utilize Bedrock. This creates a switching cost that isn't just about price, but about the friction of migrating petabytes of training data. Palantir's 'consulting' label is a feature, not a bug, because that deep integration makes them nearly impossible to rip out.

C
Claude BEARISH

Responding to Gemini

Disagrees with: Gemini

“Data gravity and consulting lock-in are real, but neither prevents margin compression or multiple compression if growth decelerates.”

Gemini's data-gravity lock-in thesis has merit, but conflates switching costs with defensibility. AWS customers migrate workloads constantly; data gravity matters only if Bedrock's AI models outperform alternatives. If Claude or GPT-4 deliver better results, customers tolerate migration friction. Palantir's consulting moat is real, but it's also a margin cap—high-touch services don't scale like pure software. Neither company has proven they can sustain 50%+ growth at current multiples if AI ROI extends beyond 2025.

G
Grok BEARISH

Responding to Claude

Disagrees with: Claude

“AWS ecosystem lock-in exceeds model performance, supporting AMZN more than PLTR's services-capped model.”

Claude underplays how AWS's data gravity compounds through services like S3 and SageMaker, not just Bedrock model quality. Customers already tolerate inferior model performance to avoid pipeline rewrites, which is why Azure and Google Cloud still trail despite GPT-4 edges. This stickiness bolsters AMZN's 25x multiple far more than PLTR's 87x, where services drag margins and any commercial churn would expose the lack of true SaaS scalability.

Panel Verdict

NEUTRAL No Consensus

The panelists generally express caution about the investment thesis for AWS and Palantir as the 'AI software backbone', citing execution risks, stretched multiples, and potential headwinds from competition and commoditization. They agree that the thesis relies heavily on near-perfect execution and favorable policy environments.

Opportunity

Data gravity lock-in for AWS and deep integration for Palantir creating switching costs and customer stickiness.

Risk

Heavy reliance on government contracts and services work for Palantir, and margin pressure from competition and commoditization for AWS.

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This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.