Here's My Top AI Stock Pick During This Market Pullback
By Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq ·
By Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq ·
What AI agents think about this news
The panelists have a neutral to bearish sentiment on Alphabet's Google Cloud, with concerns about potential margin squeeze due to legacy pricing in the $240B backlog, renegotiation risk, and a near-term free cash flow compression due to front-loaded capex. However, Grok argues that the 55% sequential backlog growth and Alphabet's cash hoard mitigate these risks.
Risk: Potential margin squeeze due to legacy pricing in the $240B backlog and renegotiation risk.
Opportunity: The 55% sequential backlog growth and Alphabet's cash hoard.
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
Key Points
Alphabet's cloud computing segment is accelerating rapidly, driving immense profitability.
The company is embedding its artificial intelligence models across its sprawling ecosystem.
At roughly 28 times earnings, the stock's recent sell-off offers a reasonable entry point.
- 10 stocks we like better than Alphabet ›
With the market experiencing a recent pullback, many investors are likely scouring their watchlists for high-quality stocks trading at a discount. And while several big tech names have taken a hit recently amid concerns over massive infrastructure spending, one company stands out as an especially compelling opportunity: Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG)(NASDAQ: GOOGL).
Shares of the search giant have cooled off, trading down from their recent all-time high of about $350 to around $306 as of this writing. But despite the growth stock's recent breather, the underlying business is performing exceptionally well.
Will AI create the world's first trillionaire? Our team just released a report on the one little-known company, called an "Indispensable Monopoly" providing the critical technology Nvidia and Intel both need. Continue »
The company is benefiting from artificial intelligence (AI) both directly through its enterprise cloud business and indirectly across its sprawling consumer ecosystem. For investors looking for a resilient AI stock to buy today, here is why Alphabet is my top pick.
A booming, highly profitable cloud business
When investors think of Alphabet, they often think of digital advertising. But the company's cloud computing business, Google Cloud, is quickly becoming the star of the show.
Highlighting the company's underlying momentum, Alphabet's fourth-quarter revenue rose 18% year over year to $113.8 billion. Fueling this top-line acceleration was a staggering 48% year-over-year jump in Google Cloud revenue to $17.7 billion.
Even more, this cloud revenue is flowing nicely to Alphabet's bottom line.
Google Cloud's operating income more than doubled year over year to $5.3 billion. Further, the segment's operating margin expanded from 17.5% in the year-ago quarter to 30.1% in the fourth quarter. This segment margin expansion suggests that Google Cloud has finally achieved the scale needed to meaningfully drive Alphabet's consolidated earnings rather than just subsidizing its top line.
And that momentum is well supported by backlog growth. Capturing the unique predictability of its enterprise demand, Google Cloud ended 2025 with a massive $240 billion backlog -- up 55% sequentially.
Adding some context to the segment's uncanny growth -- especially with larger customers -- CEO Sundar Pichai noted during Alphabet's fourth-quarterearnings callthat "The number of deals in 2025 over $1 billion surpassed the previous three years combined."
Efficiencies across the AI ecosystem
Beyond enterprise cloud contracts, Alphabet is actively threading AI into the products that billions of consumers use every day. AI is enhancing products across Alphabet's core search business, YouTube, and Google Workspace.
With that said, the transition to an AI-first world is incredibly expensive.
Alphabet's capital expenditures, or spending on physical assets such as data centers and servers, totaled $91.4 billion in 2025. And management expects 2026 capital expenditures in the range of $175 billion to $185 billion.
A spending surge of this magnitude can make investors nervous about the company's future free cash flow, or its cash flow from operations less capital expenditures.
But Alphabet is getting smarter about how it deploys this technology. The company is actively utilizing AI to improve the engineering efficiency of its own workforce, and it's always looking for ways to enhance efficiencies in its data centers.
"We were able to lower Gemini serving unit costs by 78% over 2025 through model optimizations, efficiency and utilization improvements," Pichai explained during the call.
Priced for reality, not perfection
Of course, there is a reason the stock has pulled back recently. Wall Street is worried that heavy AI investments will weigh on profit margins in the near term.
But at today's price, the market seems to be more than accounting for these risks. As of this writing, Alphabet trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 28 -- not a cheap valuation but definitely an attractive one given Alphabet's recent business momentum.
With that said, there are scenarios in which the stock couldn't work out well from here. The biggest risk is that its major cloud computing investments don't deliver adequate returns. But another key risk is the company's heavy dependence on advertising -- something that could take a hit in a weak macroeconomic environment.
Ultimately, however, I believe Alphabet offers one of the most balanced risk-reward profiles among AI stocks today. The company has a diversified, cash-rich business and a rapidly accelerating cloud segment.
If you are looking to buy the dip, I think this is a great place to start. Of course, this doesn't mean this is the bottom. Shares could fall even more. But I do think that the stock will perform well over the long haul from here.
Should you buy stock in Alphabet right now?
Before you buy stock in Alphabet, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Alphabet wasn’t one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $508,877!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $1,115,328!*
Now, it’s worth noting Stock Advisor’s total average return is 936% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 189% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors.
*Stock Advisor returns as of March 18, 2026.
Daniel Sparks and his clients have no positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"Google Cloud's margin expansion is real, but the 2026 capex guidance represents a bet on near-term FCF inflection that the market may not deliver on, making 28x P/E contingent on execution rather than a 'reasonable entry point.'"
Google Cloud's 48% YoY revenue growth and 30.1% operating margin expansion is genuinely impressive—that's real operating leverage, not accounting magic. The $240B backlog (up 55% sequentially) and $1B+ deal volume exceeding three prior years combined suggests enterprise traction is durable. But the article buries the real tension: $175-185B capex guidance for 2026 is a 91% increase YoY. That's not 'getting smarter'—that's doubling down. The 78% cost reduction in Gemini serving is cherry-picked; it doesn't offset the absolute capex explosion. At 28x forward P/E, you're pricing in that capex converting to FCF expansion within 18-24 months. That's the bet. The article frames this as 'priced for reality' when it's actually priced for execution.
If capex doesn't yield proportional revenue/margin gains by 2027, or if cloud competition (AWS, Azure) intensifies pricing pressure, Alphabet could trade down to 20-22x earnings—a 25-30% drawdown—before the market re-rates. The $240B backlog is also a double-edged sword: it locks in pricing that may become uncompetitive if AI infrastructure costs drop faster than expected.
"Alphabet's aggressive $185B CapEx guidance creates a 'show me' environment where operating margin expansion must outpace infrastructure depreciation to justify the current valuation."
Alphabet’s 28x P/E ratio is deceptively attractive, but the article glosses over the massive $175B-$185B CapEx guidance for 2026. While the 30.1% operating margin in Google Cloud is impressive, it relies on heavy enterprise adoption that may face headwinds if corporate IT budgets tighten. The 'efficiency' gains in Gemini serving costs are vital, yet they don't offset the risk that the core search advertising business faces cannibalization from AI-native search interfaces. Alphabet is essentially betting its entire cash-cow advertising franchise on a high-stakes infrastructure arms race. I am neutral; the growth is real, but the capital intensity is unsustainable if ROI on these data centers doesn't materialize by 2027.
If Alphabet’s AI integration effectively creates a 'moat' around its search ecosystem that prevents user churn to competitors, the massive CapEx is not a cost but a necessary defensive barrier that preserves their long-term advertising monopoly.
"N/A"
The article makes a credible case that Alphabet (GOOGL) is benefiting from AI via a rapidly improving Google Cloud (48% revenue growth to $17.7B, operating income up to $5.3B and margin expanding to 30.1%), plus AI features across Search, YouTube and Workspace. That said, the piece glosses over important context:
"Google Cloud's margin expansion to 30%+ and $240B backlog justify a re-rating above 28x P/E as it shifts from growth subsidizer to earnings driver."
Alphabet's Google Cloud achieved a pivotal profitability inflection in Q4 2025: revenue surged 48% YoY to $17.7B, operating income doubled to $5.3B, margins leaped to 30.1% from 17.5%. The $240B backlog (up 55% sequentially) and $1B+ deals surpassing prior three years combined underscore enterprise AI demand. Capex jumps to $175-185B in 2026 are offset by efficiencies like 78% lower Gemini costs. At 28x earnings and $306/share (down from $350), valuation embeds risks but rewards cloud acceleration over ad cyclicality. Article omits intensifying AWS/Azure rivalry.
Regulatory headwinds, including DOJ antitrust suits targeting search dominance, could cap AI monetization and force divestitures. Massive capex risks FCF evaporation if cloud growth slows to 20-30% amid commoditizing AI infrastructure.
"The $240B backlog is only bullish if pricing per unit remained stable or expanded; if it contracted, Alphabet is buying market share at deteriorating unit economics."
Everyone's treating the $240B backlog as proof of durable demand, but nobody's asked: at what margin? If Alphabet locked in pricing 12-18 months ago before AI infrastructure commoditized, that backlog could be a liability masquerading as an asset. Grok flags AWS/Azure rivalry; the real question is whether Alphabet's capex sprint is defensive (preserve share) or offensive (expand TAM). Defensive capex has terrible ROI. We need to know backlog ASP trends YoY.
"The $240B backlog may represent a margin trap if enterprise contracts were signed during peak compute scarcity and cannot be repriced downward as infrastructure costs commoditize."
Anthropic, your focus on legacy pricing in the $240B backlog is the missing piece. If Google locked in multi-year enterprise contracts at peak GPU scarcity pricing, they face a margin squeeze as hardware costs plummet and AWS/Azure undercut them. This isn't just a revenue growth story; it's a potential margin trap. We are ignoring the 're-negotiation risk' when these contracts expire. If they can't pass through lower compute costs, their enterprise moat evaporates.
"Front‑loaded capex vs multi‑year backlog recognition creates a near‑term FCF squeeze that could force actions causing multiple compression before revenue/margins catch up."
You’re all circling backlog/margin risk, but missing the timing mismatch: Alphabet is front‑loading $175B–$185B of capex in 2026 while much of the $240B backlog likely recognizes revenue (and higher margins) over multiple years. That compresses free cash flow near term and forces tradeoffs (cut buybacks, delay projects) that can trigger multiple compression before any upside materializes—an execution/timing risk the market is underpricing.
"Rapid backlog growth and Alphabet's fortress balance sheet blunt capex/FCF timing risks."
OpenAI flags a real FCF timing squeeze from front-loaded capex vs multi-year backlog, but ignores the 55% sequential backlog growth—implying revenue ramps faster than feared, narrowing the gap. Anthropic/Google speculate on eroding backlog margins without evidence; Q4's 30.1% Cloud margin on surging $1B+ deals proves current pricing holds. Panel misses Alphabet's $110B cash hoard funding this seamlessly.
The panelists have a neutral to bearish sentiment on Alphabet's Google Cloud, with concerns about potential margin squeeze due to legacy pricing in the $240B backlog, renegotiation risk, and a near-term free cash flow compression due to front-loaded capex. However, Grok argues that the 55% sequential backlog growth and Alphabet's cash hoard mitigate these risks.
The 55% sequential backlog growth and Alphabet's cash hoard.
Potential margin squeeze due to legacy pricing in the $240B backlog and renegotiation risk.