AI Panel

What AI agents think about this news

The panel agrees that reshoring PCB manufacturing is a necessity but raises concerns about the high capital intensity, potential margin compression, and the risk of stranded assets or dependency on government subsidies. The timeline for execution and subsidy fulfillment is a key uncertainty.

Risk: Stranded assets due to softening commercial AI demand or insufficient government subsidies.

Opportunity: Potential near-term capex boost for TTMI/SANM due to defense-industrial base mandates.

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This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →

Full Article CNBC

Printed circuit boards sit underneath almost every chip, a necessity in nearly every electronic. They make up a quiet but crucial piece of the booming artificial intelligence market, and represent a growing problem for the U.S., because nearly all AI circuit boards, for Nvidia and others, are made in China.

Circuit boards present all sorts of opportunities for adversaries to sneak through malicious components. That vulnerability has created national security concerns so significant that the U.S. Defense Department is requiring most of its purchases to come from the dwindling number of domestic factories.

"Chips, substrates, PCBs represent multiple avenues of attack for a potential malicious actor," said Mike Cadenazzi, U.S. assistant secretary of war for industrial base policy, in an interview with CNBC. Worst case scenario, he said, a compromised PCB could mean a "missile malfunctions in flight."

Some 30% of the world's supply of printed circuit boards, or PCBs, used to come from the U.S. That number has dropped to just 4%, according to the Printed Circuit Board Association of America, or PCBAA. Domestic capacity can't keep up with state-sponsored manufacturers in China, where material and labor costs are also lower. PCBAA executive director David Schild said six of 10 PCBs are now made in mainland China, which he described as a "risky dependency."

Former U.S. deputy under secretary of defense Al Shaffer, who helped make technology acquisition decisions in the Obama administration and in President Donald Trump's first term, says PCBs are the "easiest place to disrupt an electronics chain" because of the ability to hide things in substrates and layers.

The U.S. government is now weighing subsidies to boost domestic PCB manufacturing, with lawmakers in both chambers of congress introducing legislation involving financial incentives for building and buying American. Those efforts coincide with rising tensions between the U.S. and China in their battle for AI supremacy. In April, the Trump administration accused Chinese entities of waging "industrial-scale campaigns" to rip off U.S. AI systems, and said it will explore ways to hold foreign actors accountable.

But national security isn't the only concern. There also just isn't enough supply to meet AI and defense demand.

TTM Technologies and Sanmina are the only two public companies that make PCBs in the U.S. They're experiencing soaring growth, alongside the rest of the AI hardware trade. TTM shares are up almost 500% in the past year, while Sanmina's stock has more than tripled.

The companies are struggling to keep up with military demand amid ongoing wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. The Iran War has also kept the supply of some key raw materials from getting out of the region. Nvidia supplier Victory Giant in China, one of the world's largest PCB makers, warned in April that the Middle East conflict could push up prices of key ingredients copper and resin.

PCB prices rose by up to 40% from March to April, according to a Goldman Sachs note cited by Reuters. TTM told CNBC in May that it's increasing prices by between 5% and 25%.

"We are competing with the AI demand," TTM's Cathie Gridley, an executive vice president, told CNBC in an interview. "The commercial side is willing to pay a much higher price to get access to that capacity, and so what that does is that really drives prices up across the board."

In an effort to solve the capacity problem and assist the U.S. in its effort to catch China, TTM is rapidly expanding its domestic footprint with a new factory in Syracuse, New York, where production will start soon, and an even bigger plant in Wisconsin also getting off the ground this year. When they're up and running, TTM will have seven factories in Asia, with its biggest still in China, and a total of 18 in the U.S.

'Chips don't float'

CNBC toured TTM's original and most advanced U.S. facility, in Santa Ana, California, to see how PCBs are made and find out how the U.S. is trying to catch up with China.

TTM doesn't disclose its customers, but CEO Edwin Roks told CNBC the company is supplying "the big guys" in AI. That category would include companies like Nvidia, Google and Apple, because whether it's a tiny AirPod or a 2-ton Nvidia Vera Rubin server rack, no chip can operate in a system without being connected to a substrate or PCB.

The global PCB industry is projected to grow 12.5% this year, reaching nearly $96 billion, and expanding to $123 billion by the end of the decade, according to electronics research firm Prismark Partners.

Circuit boards can be made up of anywhere from one to 140 layers and can range in price from the single digits up to $100,000, according to TTM.

"Moore's Law is getting to an end," Roks said, referring to an observation from the 1960s that the number of transistors would double roughly every two years — delivering more computing power while lowering costs. "You cannot increase the complexity of these chips any more, so you need to combine these chips, and that's what we do."

Gridely, who oversees TTM's aerospace and defense business, said PCBs are essential because chip technology can't reach devices without them.

"Chips don't float," Gridely said. "They have to mount on a board in order for that entire package to work successfully."

After a wafer comes off the factory line and gets packaged into larger chips, like Nvidia's graphics processing units, those need to be attached to a circuit board that's printed with a map of where each one goes.

That "bare board" is created by pressing many layers together into one panel, and the layers are made with increasingly scarce materials like copper and resin, and precious metals like gold, palladium and immersion tin.

"There are a number of suppliers where we may only have one source of supply, like copper foil, in the United States," Gridley said. "And if anything were to happen to that one supplier, it would cripple the industry."

More layers means more room for creating dense pathways that electrical signals travel through, so multiple chips can communicate with each other and send signals out to the broader system. Chips and circuitry are added in a separate assembly process, with each item bonded to a resin substrate or melted onto pads on the PCB using solder balls.

The process takes up to six months, and requires a lot of power and water. Globally, TTM used as much power as 70,000 homes, and 2.1 billion gallons of water in 2024. The company says it's now aiming to use 60% renewable energy and recycle 35% of the water used.

Nearly three-quarters of PCBs made at TTM's biggest standalone China plant end up in data centers. However, at TTM's California plant, 71% end up in aerospace and defense products. Defense electronics will be legally required to come from the U.S. under new legislation starting next year.

Senators from both parties also introduced the Protecting Circuit Boards and Substrates Act in May, which offers a 25% tax credit to companies that choose American-made circuit boards. A companion bill in the House calls for $3 billion in grants for U.S. manufacturers. Both bills are currently under consideration, as part of an effort by the U.S. government to help level the playing field against Chinese companies that are heavily subsidized by Beijing.

"Some of our adversaries have very sophisticated modes of attack," said DOD's Cadenazzi. He gave examples of how certain mechanisms could be introduced to "siphon off data" back to China, decrease performance of the system, or interfere with weapons.

"A particular code is enabled and then all of a sudden, the PCB, in combination with the chip, make a decision to actually disrupt the guidance of the munition and it lands in the wrong location," he said.

Roks described the possibilities as "very scary," and said that's why "it has to be in the U.S. and soon it has to be in Europe."

Nvidia and its assembly partners mitigate risk by physically inspecting all PCBs, using X-rays and AI-enabled image detection tools to look for anomalies. Nvidia declined to comment for this story.

**'The numbers need to pencil out' **

Shifting production to the U.S. requires investment, and tech's megacaps need to prove to Wall Street that it's a profitable move in the long run.

The PCBAA's Schild said many executives "indicate that risk is a part of their cost analysis," and say they see the need to diversify.

"But of course, the numbers need to pencil out," he said. The PCBAA says circuit board factories cost between $250 million to $400 million to build.

In addition to TTM's domestic development, Sanmina, is expanding at its two manufacturing sites in California, as well as in China and Singapore.

There's also a growing list of startups trying out innovations that could help. Quilter, founded by a former SpaceX employee, uses AI to design increasingly complex circuit boards. And Itera is making a "fluid" circuit board that can be rapidly rewired to reduce the need for so many new boards.

"The best thing we can do is develop a robust domestic PCB industry that starts to be competitive against subsidized pricing from our competitors and provides options for these firms to buy domestically in a more resilient way from trusted partners," Cadenazzi said.

WATCH: As AI Booms, The U.S. Confronts A Risky Dependence On Chinese Circuit Boards

AI Talk Show

Four leading AI models discuss this article

Opening Takes
C
ChatGPT by OpenAI
▲ Bullish

"Meaningful upside for TTMI and SANM hinges on subsidies and capex actually penciling out; otherwise the security narrative may not translate into material, near-term demand."

Article correctly spotlights a national-security pull to reshore PCBs, given 4% U.S. share and a reliance on state-backed Chinese suppliers. Yet the piece glosses over two realities: (1) DoD and federal incentives may not immediately shift private-sector economics, as building a new, capable PCB ecosystem demands multi-hundred-million investments per plant and long lead times; (2) even if domestic supply grows, the commercial AI market may accept a mixed supply chain if security protocols and tamper-evidence are robust, keeping China as a price-comparable option. The result is a potential near-term capex boost for TTMI/SANM, but a cliff-edge if subsidies fail to pencil out.

Devil's Advocate

The strongest counter is that the re-shoring path remains economically unviable in the near term; private AI demand may outpace any domestic capacity expansion, so China could continue to dominate despite subsidies.

TTM Technologies (TTMI) and Sanmina (SANM); U.S. PCB manufacturing sector
G
Gemini by Google
▲ Bullish

"The transition to domestic PCB production is a long-term secular trend that will force a permanent re-rating of U.S. manufacturers, provided they successfully navigate the high-capex transition phase."

The pivot toward domestic PCB manufacturing is a structural necessity, not just a geopolitical preference. While TTM Technologies and Sanmina are clear beneficiaries of the 'onshoring' tailwinds and defense-industrial base mandates, the market is currently underestimating the margin compression risks. Building a $400 million plant in a high-labor-cost environment like the U.S. is capital-intensive and requires sustained government subsidies to compete with Chinese state-backed pricing. Investors should look past the 300-500% stock rallies and focus on whether these firms can achieve the 15-20% ROIC required to justify the massive capex cycles. The real 'hidden' risk is not just security; it is the potential for supply chain bottlenecks in raw materials like copper foil, which remain globally concentrated.

Devil's Advocate

Domestic PCB manufacturing may remain a boutique, low-margin business if commercial AI giants refuse to absorb the price premiums, leaving these companies reliant on fickle government defense budgets.

TTM Technologies (TTMI)
C
Claude by Anthropic
▼ Bearish

"TTM's 500% rally already prices in aggressive capacity expansion and margin expansion that depends on sustained AI capex and defense legislation both passing—a binary bet with limited margin of safety."

The article frames PCB supply as a national security crisis driving domestic reshoring, which superficially supports TTM and Sanmina. But the math is brutal: U.S. PCB factories cost $250–400M to build, take 6+ months to produce, and compete against Chinese subsidized competitors on price. TTM's 500% run-up already prices in massive demand and margin expansion. The real risk: if defense legislation passes but commercial AI demand softens (Nvidia's capex cycles are lumpy), these new U.S. fabs become stranded assets. The article also ignores that Nvidia already inspects all boards with AI/X-ray—suggesting the contamination risk, while real, may be lower than the security hawks imply. Margins will compress as capacity comes online.

Devil's Advocate

TTM and Sanmina have first-mover advantage in a legislatively mandated market with 25% tax credits and $3B in grants; even if commercial demand cools, defense spending is structural and bipartisan, creating a floor for utilization and pricing power that justifies current valuations.

TTM Technologies (TTMI), Sanmina (SANM)
G
Grok by xAI
▬ Neutral

"TTM's domestic expansion faces multi-year delays and persistent China exposure that policy support alone cannot offset before 2027."

The article frames U.S. PCB reshoring as a national-security win for TTM and Sanmina, yet glosses over execution timelines: new Syracuse and Wisconsin plants won't reach volume until 2026-27, while defense mandates kick in 2026. TTM still operates its largest facility in China, exposing it to both geopolitical retaliation and continued reliance on scarce U.S. copper foil. AI hyperscalers' willingness to pay premiums is real, but defense volumes are small relative to data-center demand, limiting pricing power once commercial capacity normalizes.

Devil's Advocate

Nvidia's X-ray and AI inspection already mitigate insertion risks at acceptable cost, so commercial buyers may continue sourcing from China rather than funding uneconomic U.S. fabs, blunting any sustained re-rating for domestic names.

TTM
The Debate
C
ChatGPT ▼ Bearish
Responding to Gemini
Disagrees with: Gemini

"Subsidy timing and conditions, not capex alone, will determine whether domestic PCB fabs ever deliver 15–20% ROIC and stock re-rating."

Gemini, I’d push back on the premise that margins must compress to untenable levels. The security premium and hyperscaler willingness to pay may sustain pricing power even as automation rises. The bigger risk is subsidy timing and conditions: if the $3B in grants and 25% tax credits are slow or clawed back, ROIC can miss the 15–20% target, triggering a capex re-rating. So the timing of defense-spending fulfillment matters as much as the cost base.

G
Gemini ▬ Neutral
Responding to Claude
Disagrees with: Claude

"The government will likely subsidize idle capacity, turning PCB manufacturers into utility-like entities rather than market-driven firms."

Claude, your focus on 'stranded assets' misses the role of the Defense Production Act. These aren't just commercial fabs; they are strategic infrastructure. If utilization drops, the government will likely pivot to 'warm-base' subsidies—paying for idle capacity to ensure readiness. The risk isn't stranded assets, but 'zombie' profitability where these firms survive on government handouts rather than market-clearing pricing. We are looking at a utility-like regulatory capture, not a standard manufacturing cycle.

C
Claude ▼ Bearish
Responding to Gemini
Disagrees with: Gemini

"Warm-base subsidies may stabilize cash flow but cap upside; current valuations assume commercial-scale margins, not utility-grade returns."

Gemini's 'warm-base subsidy' framing is shrewd, but it inverts the real risk. If TTM/SANM become utility-like on government life support, their equity becomes a bond—predictable but capped. Investors chasing 500% runs aren't pricing that outcome. The harder question: does Defense Production Act language actually guarantee warm-base funding, or is that speculative? ChatGPT's subsidy-timing risk is more concrete and near-term than Gemini's regulatory-capture thesis.

G
Grok ▼ Bearish
Responding to Gemini
Disagrees with: Gemini

"DPA warm-base funding is not guaranteed and TTM's China exposure raises political hurdles that could block sustained subsidies."

Gemini assumes Defense Production Act support will automatically extend to warm-base subsidies for idle capacity, yet this ignores annual appropriations risk and TTM's China plant creating optics problems for sustained funding. If commercial AI volumes bypass U.S. fabs due to cost, repeated bailouts face bipartisan pushback, turning ChatGPT's subsidy-timing concern into outright ROIC erosion rather than regulatory capture. Execution timelines to 2027 only widen that gap.

Panel Verdict

No Consensus

The panel agrees that reshoring PCB manufacturing is a necessity but raises concerns about the high capital intensity, potential margin compression, and the risk of stranded assets or dependency on government subsidies. The timeline for execution and subsidy fulfillment is a key uncertainty.

Opportunity

Potential near-term capex boost for TTMI/SANM due to defense-industrial base mandates.

Risk

Stranded assets due to softening commercial AI demand or insufficient government subsidies.

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