History Says Right Now Is the Turning Point for Nvidia's Stock

Key Points
The market is skeptical about artificial intelligence (AI) spending.
Nvidia told investors to expct $1 trillion in combined system sales through 2027.
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Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is at a unique point in history. With the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, Nvidia has transformed into a new company since 2023, and each year, the same trend happens with the stock.
At the start of the year, Nvidia tells investors about all the growth it's going to generate and how high AI demand is. Every year, the market doubts Nvidia, then the growth comes, and in the second half of the year, the stock soars.
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I see that same trend starting this year, and fortunately for investors, the market hasn't caught on quite yet. This disconnect creates a huge opportunity to buy the stock now and profit from history. Investors shouldn't delay, as the stock could easily start its rally at any time.
Nvidia's growth usually starts around its Q1 earnings release
Starting in 2023, you have to remember that the consensus was that the economy was heading into a recession in late 2022 and early 2023. As a result, optimism was not high. Furthermore, the market was coming off a cryptocurrency crash, which created an inventory excess for Nvidia, causing its earnings to plummet.
As a result, Nvidia entered 2023 on a relatively grim outlook, but all of that changed in Q1 when it told investors about huge AI demand.
Unfortunately, I don't have the price of forward earnings data dating back to 2023, but I do have it for 2024. That year, the same thing happened. Investors assumed Nvidia's growth wouldn't live up to the hype, so the stock traded at low expectations for a few months. Then, it rocketed higher throughout the rest of the year.
2025 was a bit unique because of the tariff sell-off in April, but as soon as the market figured out that Nvidia would be fine, it rallied around the stock.
At the start of 2026, I see a similar setup for Nvidia, so far. The stock is relatively flat and trades for 22 times forward earnings, about the same price tag it trades around at this point of the year. There are also other concerns surrounding Nvidia, like the longevity of heightened AI spending and geopolitical issues like the Iran war.
However, this is no different than the setup in 2025, and I think that Nvidia's stock will rocket higher throughout the rest of the year once investors realize that Nvidia's growth is unaffected by many things investors are concerned about.
Nvidia has a massive demand for its new computing hardware
Nvidia is thriving on heightened AI capital expenditures. With the big four planning on spending around $650 billion this year, it bodes well for Nvidia's stock.
But 2026 isn't expected to be the last year of this. Most of the giant data center projects the AI hyperscalers have announced over the past few years are just starting construction and will take years to progress to the point where they are buying Nvidia chips. This delay extends Nvidia's growth far beyond just 2026.
Furthermore, Nvidia dropped the bombshell during its 2026 GTC event that it expects $1 trillion in sales for its Blackwell and Rubin GPU systems through 2027. Last year, this figure was $500 billion, so it's clear that the company is seeing massive orders. As this projection becomes a reality, I think the market will rally around Nvidia's stock and send it higher, much like it has over the past few years.
Nvidia's stock has a predictable pattern: It comes in cheaply valued to start the year, proves it deserves a premium valuation, and then the stock soars. I think 2026 will be a repeat of that same pattern, and because the stock hasn't soared yet, it's one of the best AI stocks to buy right now.
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Keithen Drury has positions in Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.