By Maksym Misichenko · ZeroHedge ·
What AI agents think about this news
Despite initial optimism, the panel agrees that the normalization of Hormuz traffic is unlikely to significantly impact oil prices in the near term due to logistical challenges, demand risks, and geopolitical fragility. They expect Brent prices to oscillate rather than trend down, with any supply increase being front-loaded and potentially reversed.
Risk: Geopolitical fragility and the potential expiration of Iran sanctions waivers could lead to a supply cliff rather than a glut, reversing any price dip.
Opportunity: None identified
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
Summary:
Attention on institutional desks is shifting toward normalization signals at the Strait of Hormuz maritime chokepoint.
At the time of writing at least 14 transits through the Strait of Hormuz were recorded on Thursday June 18 - up from just 2 on the same day last week pic.twitter.com/qcWLrWewCy
— Lloyd's List (@LloydsList) June 18, 2026
Earlier, we detailed how Saudi supertankers were beginning to exit the narrow waterway bound for Asia, while also noting that a massive backlog of tankers remains poised to exit the Persian Gulf as the reopening process gets underway.
Bloomberg, citing the semi-official Iranian Students' News Agency, reported that commercial vessel traffic at southern ports is moving toward normalization, with vessels carrying critical goods arriving and two tankers departing.
A separate Bloomberg story quoted Kuwait Petroleum Corp. CEO Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah, who said in an interview that Kuwaiti output is expected to exceed 2 million barrels a day within a week.
"We anticipate that we can exceed 2 million barrels a day within one week from now." Nawaf Al-Sabah.
He added, "And that pending availability of international commercial shipping, to reach Kuwaiti ports, we should be able to resume pre-war production within a matter of weeks."
At pre-conflict levels, Kuwait was producing 2.5 million barrels a day, but has since slumped to as low as half a million barrels a day.
Related:
Earlier, BofA Global Research's commodity team slashed its 2026E Brent forecast to $82/bbl from $ 93/bbl, citing a flood of crude set to hit the global market in the coming weeks and months as Hormuz normalization ramps up.
"The team has also cut its 2027E Brent forecast to US$70/bbl from US$78/bbl with a surplus of 1.1mb/d forecast during the year," BofA analysts said.
Hormuz flows still muted.
Energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz are beginning to restart on Thursday after the interim U.S.-Iran peace deal, with several Saudi-controlled supertankers transiting the critical waterway and exiting the Persian Gulf.
There is a massive backlog of crude and LNG tankers in the Persian Gulf, preparing to exit the Hormuz chokepoint bound for Asia. Bloomberg says 31 supertankers, carrying about 62 million barrels of crude, could soon exit.
The actual number of crude and LNG tankers preparing to exit could be much higher, as some tankers may turn off their transponders. Once exited, many of those tankers are slated for ports in East Asia and will take roughly three weeks to arrive.
One of the key developments overnight was that three Saudi-controlled supertankers, including Bahri-controlled Saudi VLCCs Shaden, Jaham, and Awtad, switched on their transponders and began exiting the Persian Gulf.
Maritime traffic remains far below normal levels and could take many months to return to normal.
"There are certain practical steps that we believe are necessary before the vessels that have been stranded in the Gulf for the last 110 days can resume transiting the Strait of Hormuz," Sheila Cameron, CEO, and Neil Roberts, head of marine and aviation at the Lloyd's Market Association, told Bloomberg in a statement.
Cameron continued, "The main requirement for recovery is stability and certainty for shipowners and insurers. The road to recovery in the Gulf will be a long and complicated one. It will take months for some sort of normality to return to international shipping with vessels in the wrong place and supply chains distorted."
Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs' co-head of Global Commodities Research, told clients, "We now assume that Persian Gulf exports normalize to pre- war levels by the end of July."
On Thursday morning, Brent crude futures fell below $78, while West Texas Intermediate was near $74. Traders are already pricing in the coming flood of seaborne crude.
Dubai and Murban crude futures curves have flipped into contango, Oman crude is trading at a discount to Dubai, and some diesel cargoes are trading below benchmark levels after commanding lofty premiums.
The first signs of normalization are already visible, following President Trump's acknowledgment on Wednesday at the G7 Summit that the interim peace deal with Iran to reopen Hormuz was signed as the U.S. was nearing the point of "running out of reserves in about four weeks."
*Trump Says `We Run Out of Reserves in About Four Weeks'
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 17, 2026
we know, but maybe not the smartest thing to admit https://t.co/N28eXJih5e
Struyven noted that even if the expected "normalization" occurs by the end of next month, flows may recover to only 70% of pre-war levels ...
Latest overnight headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):
US-Iran Peace Deal
• President Trump signed an interim peace deal with Iran on Wednesday evening at the Palace of Versailles, following the G7 summit
• The deal is now in effect and was signed electronically by both presidents, according to US and Iranian officials
• The memorandum of understanding opens the way for 60 days of negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and other issues
• Iran will receive sanctions waivers allowing it to sell oil immediately and gain access to a $300 billion economic development program
• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US can reimpose an ironclad blockade if Iran doesn't comply with the deal
Strait of Hormuz Reopening
• Three Saudi supertankers carrying about six million barrels of oil exited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, marking the first Saudi-owned crude tankers to cross since the war began
• A laden LNG carrier and an empty products tanker crossed the Strait of Hormuz early Thursday, sailing along a route approved by Tehran for safe passages
• Qatar brought an empty LNG tanker back into the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the war began on Thursday
• Goldman Sachs estimates oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may recover to only about 70% of pre-war levels, with normalization potentially completed by the end of next month
Economic Impact
• US gasoline prices fell below $4 a gallon on Thursday for the first time since March, down from a May peak above $4.50
Deal Criticism and Complications
• Trump faced pushback from Republicans who object to the deal and the billions of dollars set to flow to Tehran
• Trump brushed aside several red lines on Wednesday, suggesting Iran should have the right to enrich uranium, develop ballistic missiles and access frozen funds
• Israel rejected a US request to withdraw troops from southern Lebanon, citing continued presence of Hezbollah, threatening to complicate broader peace efforts
Iran Leadership Investigation
• The US Justice Department is conducting a probe into how Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei built a global investment portfolio with exposure to Wall Street banks, examining allegations of money laundering and corruption
Related Legal Developments
• A federal judge allowed the Justice Department to drop a criminal case against Turkish state-owned Halkbank on Wednesday for allegedly helping Iran evade US sanctions
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"Global demand trajectory and OPEC+ policy matter far more for price than Hormuz reopening alone."
While the article frames Hormuz normalization as a clear catalyst for a flood of Middle East crude to Asia and a drop in Brent, the real signal is far noisier. Even with some Gulf flows resuming, shipping bottlenecks, insurance costs, and remaining sanctions frictions keep actual export relief conditional, not guaranteed. Demand risk dominates: China’s growth trajectory, European recession risk, and the pace of OPEC+ production discipline all matter more for prices than whether 10–20% of pre-war flows return. A near-term price dip could prove transitory if demand proves resilient, or if OPEC+ cuts counterbalance any flood. The net: supply normalization is a necessary, not sufficient, driver of lower prices.
Bull case against my stance: If sanctions relief unlocks steady Gulf-to-Asia flows and Asian demand holds up, the market could absorb the extra supply without a sustained price drop. A renewed OPEC+ easing or supply disruption elsewhere could also lift prices despite the normalization narrative.
"The logistical friction of restarting Gulf shipping and the fragility of the political deal will cause a sharp, temporary spike in operational costs that current market pricing ignores."
The market is prematurely pricing in a smooth 'normalization' of the Strait of Hormuz. While the immediate resumption of tanker traffic is a relief, the logistical reality of re-integrating 110 days of idle shipping capacity is a nightmare. Insurance premiums for the region will remain elevated for months, and the 'peace deal' is politically fragile, facing significant domestic opposition in the U.S. and regional defiance from Israel regarding Lebanon. I expect a 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' reaction as the reality of high shipping costs and supply chain bottlenecks hits Q3 earnings. The move from backwardation to contango in crude futures suggests the market is already over-correcting for the coming supply glut.
If the U.S.-Iran deal holds, the sheer volume of 60+ million barrels currently backlogged could trigger a massive, sustained deflationary impulse in global energy costs, fueling a broader equity market rally.
"The article celebrates normalization optics while BofA's own price cuts and Goldman's 70% recovery cap reveal the market is already pricing in a structural oil surplus that will persist for months, not a return to pre-war equilibrium."
The article conflates normalization signals with actual normalization. Yes, 14 transits vs. 2 last week looks bullish, but Goldman's own forecast caps recovery at 70% of pre-war levels by end-July. Kuwait's CEO promises 2.5M bpd 'within weeks'—but they're at 0.5M now; that's a 5x ramp in an uncertain environment. BofA cut 2026 Brent from $93 to $82 and 2027 from $78 to $70, pricing in a 1.1M bpd surplus. The real risk: Trump's admission of 'running out of reserves in four weeks' reveals the deal was desperation-driven, not strategically sound. Insurers and shipowners still lack certainty. Stranded vessels, distorted supply chains, and geopolitical fragility (Israel rejecting Lebanon withdrawal, Iran under DOJ investigation) mean this 'flood' could reverse or stall mid-transit.
If flows genuinely normalize to 70% by late July and stay there, crude stays in the $70–82 range—manageable for most producers and better than $100+ volatility. The deal's very existence, despite its flaws, removes tail-risk premium.
"Brent will test sub-$75 levels within weeks as the 62M-barrel backlog and Kuwaiti output ramp hit Asian demand before any sustained geopolitical reversal materializes."
The article points to a rapid supply surge from the Persian Gulf after the interim US-Iran deal, with 14 Hormuz transits on June 18 versus 2 last week, three Saudi VLCCs (Shaden, Jaham, Awtad) exiting, and 62 million barrels queued for Asia. BofA's downgrade to $82/bbl 2026 Brent and Goldman's 70% normalization cap by July-end imply near-term downside for crude. Kuwait's ramp above 2M b/d within a week adds to the glut, flipping Dubai into contango. Energy equities and futures will price this faster than physical arrivals in three weeks, but insurers' caution on full recovery signals the move may be front-loaded rather than sustained.
The interim deal is already drawing Republican pushback and Israeli refusal to withdraw from Lebanon, raising the odds that sanctions waivers get clawed back and Hormuz flows stall again before the backlog clears.
"Backlog-driven logistics costs and uneven flow resumption imply a persistent risk premium and oscillating Brent, not a guaranteed slide from Hormuz normalization."
Gemini overplays the 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' dynamic by underestimating the duration of backlogs and the cost of re-integrating 110 days of idle capacity. The 60m barrels queued for Asia and higher shipping insurance point to a persistent risk premium. If flows resume unevenly, Brent could oscillate rather than trend down; a clean slide depends on durable demand and geopolitical resilience, not just a 70% recovery headline.
"Gulf producers' fiscal needs will force them to prioritize volume over price, likely breaking the $82 floor."
Claude, you’re missing the fiscal desperation of the Gulf states. While you focus on logistical hurdles, you ignore that these producers are price-takers who need cash flow to fund domestic diversification projects. They will prioritize volume over price stability, likely undercutting OPEC+ quotas to clear that 62 million barrel backlog. The 'desperation' isn't just a U.S. political narrative; it’s a structural incentive for a supply-side race to the bottom that will overwhelm your $82 floor.
"Gulf desperation for cash flow is real, but OPEC+ discipline and geopolitical fragility are stronger countervailing forces than Gemini's model assumes."
Gemini's race-to-the-bottom thesis assumes Gulf producers will sacrifice price discipline for volume, but OPEC+ has proven willing to cut production to defend floors—Saudi Arabia held $80+ for months despite demand weakness. The real test: do Iran sanctions waivers actually persist, or does political fragility (Israel, Republican pushback) collapse the deal before the backlog clears? If waivers expire mid-July, you get a supply cliff, not a glut. Gemini conflates structural incentive with actual behavior.
"Conditional waivers and OPEC+ discipline cap any supply surge, preventing Gemini's assumed glut."
Gemini overstates the incentive for Gulf states to breach OPEC+ quotas and trigger a race to the bottom. Sanctions waivers under the interim deal are politically conditional and revocable, so Kuwait or Saudi volume ramps above agreed levels risk immediate U.S. pushback that strands the 62 million barrel backlog before it clears. The fragility Claude flagged makes coordinated discipline more likely than unchecked flooding.
Despite initial optimism, the panel agrees that the normalization of Hormuz traffic is unlikely to significantly impact oil prices in the near term due to logistical challenges, demand risks, and geopolitical fragility. They expect Brent prices to oscillate rather than trend down, with any supply increase being front-loaded and potentially reversed.
None identified
Geopolitical fragility and the potential expiration of Iran sanctions waivers could lead to a supply cliff rather than a glut, reversing any price dip.