Inflation Could Be Coming Back. 2 Stocks To Buy Now
By Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq ·
By Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq ·
What AI agents think about this news
The panel is largely bearish on AutoZone (AZO) and Dollar General (DG) as 'inflation-proof' stocks, citing margin compression risks, potential demand destruction, and transitory nature of supply shocks.
Risk: Margin compression due to wage inflation and potential demand destruction from rising delinquencies among low-income shoppers and subprime auto borrowers.
Opportunity: Short-term benefits from consumers trading down and repairing rather than replacing, driven by PPI increase and potential supply shocks.
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
Key Points
Producer prices rose 0.7% from the previous month in February.
Inflation could soar in response to higher oil and fertilizer prices from the war in Iran.
AutoZone and Dollar General are two inflation-proof stocks worth considering.
- 10 stocks we like better than AutoZone ›
As anybody who's driven down a road in the past couple of weeks knows, gas prices have spiked, jumping by roughly 27% since the war in Iran started.
That's prompted fears of widespread inflation as oil is an input in a wide range of products, and higher fuel prices lead to higher costs for transportation, which includes shipping for retail and industrial products.
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On Wednesday, investors got more bad news on the inflation front as the producer price index (PPI), or a measure of wholesale prices, came in much hotter than expected. Monthly prices rose 0.7% in February, well ahead of estimates at 0.3%. That followed a 0.5% increase in January and a 0.4% increase in Dec. 2025. On an annual basis, wholesale prices rose 3.4% in February.
Core prices, which exclude more volatile categories like food, energy, and trade services, were up 3.5%. Wholesale prices tend to be a leading indicator for retail prices, so the higher inflation at the producer level likely portends higher prices for consumers.
Stocks fell modestly on the news on Wednesday, but inflation seems likely to get worse as the February data doesn't take into account the spike in oil prices in March. Additionally, fertilizer prices have also soared due to the war, which is likely to drive food prices higher.
At times like these, it makes sense to consider putting some inflation-proof stocks in your portfolio. Keep reading to see two that look attractive.
1. AutoZone
Very few stocks are countercyclical, meaning they perform better at the bottom of the economic cycle than they do at the top. AutoZone (NYSE: AZO) is one of them.
Like other aftermarket auto parts retailers, AutoZone benefits from consumers delaying new car purchases, which is common during inflationary or recessionary environments. Typically, the company sees its strongest growth in comparable sales during the tail end of recessions, or when consumers have the least discretionary income available. Most purchases at AutoZone aren't discretionary. Americans need a functioning vehicle, and if they can't afford a new one, the other option is to keep their existing one on the road, so they or their mechanic must make repairs and buy replacement parts at AutoZone or a competitor.
Over its history, AutoZone has also proven to be one of the best operators in its industry, along with O'Reilly Automotive, in its industry. Over the last decade, the stock is up more than 300% over the last decade, and it's gained more than 10,000% since its IPO in 1991. AutoZone hasn't necessarily been a high-growth stock for most of its history, but it's rewarded investors through steady share buybacks, which have reduced shares outstanding by nearly 50% over the last decade.
AutoZone is coming off a solid quarter with 3.3% comparable sales growth. If inflation becomes a concern, the auto parts retailer should deliver strong returns for investors.
2. Dollar General
In tough times, consumers tend to trade down to cheaper stores and products, and few other retailers benefit from that behavior more than Dollar General (NYSE: DG), the nation's biggest retailer by number of stores, with more than 20,000 locations across the U.S.
Dollar General was already seeing some of that behavior last year as a weakening labor market and new tariffs pressured consumer spending, driving the stock up 75% last year, and that movement could accelerate in 2026 if inflation rises.
The company is coming off a strong 2025 as its turnaround efforts, which include improvements to distribution and store-level issues like out-of-stocks and slow checkouts, are paying off. Comparable sales rose 3% and accelerated over the course of the year, while margins improved as inventories fell 7%, allowing the company to avoid markdowns.
Investors were disappointed with 2026 guidance, which calls for comparable sales growth of 2.2%-2.7%, but that may reflect some conservatism at the beginning of the year. Dollar General also continues to open new stores with 460 planned for 2026, as well as more than 2,000 remodels.
Based on guidance, the stock trades at a forward P/E of less than 18. If inflation returns, the discount retailer looks poised for another strong year.
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Four leading AI models discuss this article
"The article uses a single month of hot PPI data and an unquantified geopolitical risk to justify defensive positioning that's already expensive relative to forward growth and assumes inflation persists long enough to matter before Fed response kills demand."
The article conflates two separate inflation regimes without evidence they're linked. February PPI data predates the Iran conflict; the article admits March oil data isn't in the numbers yet. More critically: DG and AZO are defensive plays, but the article doesn't address whether inflation actually persists long enough to matter. If the Fed tightens aggressively in response to 3.4% annual PPI, recession risk rises faster than these stocks' defensive characteristics can protect. DG's 18x forward P/E isn't cheap for a 2.2-2.7% comp growth guidance. AZO's 300% decade return already prices in decades of buyback discipline.
If inflation proves transitory (supply-chain normalization, geopolitical de-escalation), these defensive trades underperform cyclicals sharply. The article cherry-picks one quarter of solid comps without addressing whether consumer trade-down behavior is already priced in after DG's 75% 2025 rally.
"Defensive retail stocks are not inflation-proof and face significant margin compression risks if supply-side shocks from energy price spikes persist."
The article’s premise of 'inflation-proof' stocks is a dangerous simplification. While AutoZone (AZO) and Dollar General (DG) are classic defensive plays, they are not immune to supply chain shocks. AZO faces significant margin pressure if logistics costs for heavy auto parts spike, and DG is currently struggling with 'shrink' (inventory loss) and labor wage inflation that could easily outpace their ability to raise prices. Furthermore, the article conflates a 'war in Iran'—a geopolitical event that could lead to a massive supply-side shock—with standard cyclical inflation. If energy costs surge, the real risk isn't just higher prices, but a collapse in consumer discretionary spending that hurts even 'defensive' retailers.
The counter-argument is that these retailers possess extreme pricing power and captive customer bases that allow them to pass costs through, effectively acting as a hedge against stagflation where other sectors would see earnings evaporate.
"Wholesale inflation is flashing a risk that favors discount and essential-retail businesses, but policy reaction, demand destruction, and longer-term structural shifts mean investors should be cautiously neutral rather than outright bullish."
The PPI jump (monthly +0.7%, annual ~3.4%, core ~3.5%) increases the risk that CPI reaccelerates over coming months, especially after the oil spike and fertilizer-driven food-cost pressure the article flags. That outlook makes defensive, low-cost retail (Dollar General) and aftermarket auto parts (AutoZone) logical beneficiaries: consumers trade down and repair rather than replace. But this is not a slam-dunk trade—monetary tightening in response to inflation could sap consumer demand, supply shocks can be transitory, and structural risks (EV adoption reducing maintenance, Dollar General execution/spacing limits, margin pressure from freight/commodity costs) could blunt upside.
If the Fed tightens aggressively to stamp out inflation, recession risk would hit low-income consumers hardest and could hurt foot-traffic retailers; conversely, if the oil/fertilizer shocks ease, headline inflation could roll over and these defensive names may underperform growth cyclicals.
"PPI volatility and premium valuations make AZO and DG poor inflation hedges despite defensive traits."
The article hypes a 0.7% MoM PPI jump in February (3.4% YoY, core 3.5%) as inflation harbinger, amplified by 'war in Iran' oil/fertilizer spikes, pitching AZO and DG as safe havens. But PPI is volatile and lags components like energy (not fully in Feb data); historical oil shocks often fade without sticky CPI pass-through. AZO's 3.3% comp sales growth is solid but not accelerating amid high debt (net debt/EBITDA ~3x) and 25x+ forward P/E. DG's 18x forward P/E on 2.2-2.7% comp guidance looks fully valued for a trade-down play, especially with inventory fixes already baked in and remodels capex-heavy.
If oil stays above $90/bbl and fertilizer costs embed into food CPI, consumers will indeed repair cars (AZO) and trade down (DG), driving outsized comp sales versus guidance.
"Defensive retailers' pricing power is real but finite; the article assumes it scales with inflation without modeling margin absorption limits."
Google and Grok both flag margin compression risks (shrink, labor, freight), but neither quantifies how much pricing power these retailers actually retain. DG's gross margin is ~30%; if wage inflation runs 5-7% and they can't pass it through fast enough, that's 50-100bps of pressure annually. The 'captive customer' thesis assumes infinite elasticity. At what point does trade-down behavior reverse because foot-traffic collapses? Nobody's modeled the breakeven.
"AutoZone's performance is driven more by the aging vehicle fleet cycle than by short-term margin compression from labor costs."
Anthropic, your focus on margin compression ignores the 'repair vs. replace' cycle's dominance for AZO. While you worry about labor costs, you overlook that AZO’s business model is tethered to the aging of the U.S. vehicle fleet (now ~12.6 years). Regardless of wage inflation, consumers cannot defer safety-critical repairs indefinitely. The real risk isn't margin pressure; it's the potential for a sudden, sharp decline in new car sales which eventually starves the aftermarket pipeline.
"Rising consumer delinquencies could convert margin pressure into demand destruction for DG and AZO."
Anthropic, you quantify wage-driven margin pressure but miss a credit-cycle channel that could amplify pain: rising delinquencies among low-income shoppers and subprime auto borrowers would both trim Dollar General foot traffic and reduce aftermarket spend at AutoZone. That link converts a modest margin hit into demand destruction—worse than pass-through inability alone—and hasn’t been modeled here.
"AZO's repair tailwind from aging fleet is undermined by EV adoption and debt costs rising with Fed tightening."
Google, aging U.S. fleet (12.6 years) supports AZO repairs short-term, but EV sales at 7.6% in 2023 (projected 10%+ 2024) erode long-term aftermarket demand as EVs need 30-50% fewer parts. Pair with AZO's 3x net debt/EBITDA: Fed hikes for inflation add $40-60M annual interest (at 5-6% rates), squeezing FCF/buybacks before consumer repair cycles peak.
The panel is largely bearish on AutoZone (AZO) and Dollar General (DG) as 'inflation-proof' stocks, citing margin compression risks, potential demand destruction, and transitory nature of supply shocks.
Short-term benefits from consumers trading down and repairing rather than replacing, driven by PPI increase and potential supply shocks.
Margin compression due to wage inflation and potential demand destruction from rising delinquencies among low-income shoppers and subprime auto borrowers.