By Maksym Misichenko · Nasdaq ·
What AI agents think about this news
Despite regulatory clarity in the SEC case, the panel is bearish on XRP's current price due to concerns about sustainable demand for ODL corridors and the potential compression towards stablecoin pricing. The escrow supply overhang is also seen as a significant factor limiting XRP's upside.
Risk: Inability of ODL adoption to sustain pricing above $1 without speculative inflows
Opportunity: Potential re-rating of XRP if regulatory clarity emerges and Ripple scales its on-demand liquidity and stablecoin ambitions
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
After hitting a 52-week high of $3.65, XRP has fallen back down to the $1 price level.
For much of its history, XRP has traded for less than $1.
The emergence of stablecoins has many investors re-thinking the true value of XRP.
For nearly two years, XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has been touted as a high-upside cryptocurrency. Yet, at its current price of $1.32, it is now perilously close to dropping below the psychologically important $1 price level.
Is this a unique buying opportunity for crypto investors -- a chance to pick up XRP on the cheap? Or is it yet another flashing red signal that XRP will never live up to the hype and buzz of the past 24 months?
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Let's zoom out and take a look at XRP's price history, which dates all the way back to 2013. In the crypto world, that's an eternity. Only a handful of cryptocurrencies have been around as long as XRP. So XRP has certainly seen its share of market cycles.
Except for a major spike in 2018 and another major spike in 2024, XRP has rarely traded above $1. In the period from 2013 to 2018, XRP flatlined at a price well below $1. And in the period from 2018 to 2024, XRP had only limited success breaking above $1.
In short, XRP trading at a sky-high price of $3.65 last year was the exception, not the norm. As soon as XRP hit this 52-week high, it began to fall through the $3 price level, then the $2 price level, and now (potentially) the $1 price level.
One problem, quite simply, is that the terms "XRP" and "Ripple" are often used interchangeably. In fact, it's all too common to find investors referring to XRP as Ripple.
But they're not the same. Ripple is the company behind the XRP token. The XRP token is a bridge currency created by Ripple for moving money around on a blockchain ledger, and does not possess any inherent value of its own.
XRP is useful for the Ripple payment network, but outside of that, it has very little value. For example, you can't make typical online purchases with XRP.
Ultimately, buying XRP is not the same thing as buying equity in Ripple. I can't emphasize this enough: Buying XRP does not give you exposure to the long-term upside of Ripple, which is now valued at $50 billion.
From my perspective, XRP currently functions much like a stablecoin. So shouldn't XRP be priced like a stablecoin? In other words, shouldn't XRP trade right around the $1 mark, just like a typical dollar-pegged stablecoin?
That's what has me concerned. XRP's price seems to be careening back down to $1. At the same time, Ripple appears to be going all-in on stablecoins, even going so far as to launch a stablecoin of its own in 2024.
All the value appears to be flowing to Ripple, with little new value flowing to XRP. Equity investors are getting rich, but crypto investors are not.
That's why, even though XRP seems wonderfully underpriced at $1, I'm staying away. The sky-high future price targets for XRP are exciting, but they may not be grounded in reality.
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Dominic Basulto has positions in XRP. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends XRP. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
Four leading AI models discuss this article
"The article's stablecoin analogy is a category error; XRP's value depends on ODL transaction volume and regulatory status, neither of which the article quantifies or tracks."
This article conflates two separate assets (XRP token vs. Ripple equity) then uses that confusion to argue XRP is worthless. The author's core claim—that XRP functions as a stablecoin and should price like one—is internally contradictory: if true, $1 is fair value, not a buying signal or red flag. What's missing: XRP's actual utility in Ripple's On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) corridors, which processes real cross-border volume. The 2024 spike to $3.65 wasn't irrational exuberance; it coincided with regulatory clarity (SEC loss in Ripple lawsuit, July 2023) and institutional adoption acceleration. The stablecoin launch doesn't cannibalize XRP—it's orthogonal. The real risk: regulatory reversal or ODL adoption plateau, not philosophical valuation confusion.
If XRP truly has no intrinsic value outside Ripple's network and Ripple is capturing all upside through equity and stablecoins, then the author is right—XRP is a speculative token with no moat, and $1 is a ceiling, not a floor.
"XRP's token economics tie it more to stablecoin pricing than to Ripple's $50B equity upside."
The article correctly flags that XRP lacks equity-like upside in Ripple and risks compression toward stablecoin pricing near $1 amid rising competition. Yet it underplays XRP's specific utility in Ripple's On-Demand Liquidity corridors, where transaction volume—not token scarcity—drives demand. With XRP already down from the $3.65 high and trading at 1.32, any sustained drop below 1 would test whether real-world payment flows can offset the stablecoin narrative. Regulatory finality after the SEC case and new bank partnerships remain the swing factors the piece largely ignores.
Post-lawsuit clarity plus expanding ODL corridors in Asia and Latin America could lift XRP velocity and price well above $1 even if stablecoins proliferate, invalidating the 'no inherent value' premise.
"XRP's value is derived from its role as a neutral settlement bridge in the XRPL ecosystem, not as a proxy for Ripple’s corporate equity or as a stablecoin."
The article’s premise that XRP should trade like a stablecoin is fundamentally flawed. It ignores the utility of the XRP Ledger (XRPL) for cross-border liquidity and the 'burn' mechanism inherent in transaction fees. While the author correctly identifies the confusion between Ripple the company and the XRP asset, they miss the regulatory tailwinds. The SEC litigation, which previously acted as a massive anchor on price, has largely cleared, shifting the risk profile from existential to operational. XRP isn't a stablecoin; it’s a high-beta settlement asset. If institutional adoption of the XRPL for CBDCs or payment rails accelerates, the $1 floor isn't a 'stable' target—it's a massive discount on future network utility.
The counter-argument is that if Ripple continues to prioritize their own RLUSD stablecoin, they may cannibalize the liquidity demand for XRP, rendering the token a legacy asset with diminishing network effects.
"Regulatory clarity and Ripple’s monetization of its payment network are the key catalysts that could unlock meaningful upside for XRP beyond its current price range."
XRP is trading around $1.32 after a volatile stretch that saw a 52-week high near $3.65. The piece leans heavily on a 'stablecoin-like' narrative and downplays Ripple’s real-world use cases, which could be a risk in the near term if sentiment worsens. However, price is a function of demand for cross-border liquidity, not just speculation. If regulatory clarity emerges in the Ripple v. SEC case and Ripple scales its on-demand liquidity and stablecoin ambitions, XRP could re-rate even from a sub-$1 base. The article omits how partnerships and central-bank interest in digital rails could sustain demand independent of a broad crypto rally.
Regulatory clarity remains uncertain and the SEC outcome could reclassify XRP as a security in some jurisdictions, potentially capping upside even if Ripple monetizes its network.
"XRP's floor depends on ODL transaction volume economics, not regulatory clarity or CBDC speculation—and that math remains opaque."
ChatGPT flags regulatory uncertainty as a cap on upside, but everyone's sidestepping the timing mismatch: the SEC case is already resolved (July 2023). The real risk isn't reclassification—it's whether ODL adoption can sustain $1.32+ pricing without speculative inflows. Gemini's CBDC thesis is speculative; central banks building their own rails doesn't require XRP. The burn mechanism Gemini cited is negligible at current volumes. Nobody's quantified: what transaction velocity at what fee rate justifies current price?
"ODL volumes must scale beyond pilots or XRP risks compression regardless of regulatory status."
Claude correctly notes the July 2023 SEC resolution, but underplays how ODL corridor data already shows measurable volume growth that could sustain pricing above $1. The real gap is whether those flows scale beyond pilots without relying on speculative inflows. If bank integrations in Asia stay episodic rather than daily, the velocity needed to justify current levels may never materialize, validating the compression risk even post-clarity.
"The massive XRP escrow supply creates a structural supply overhang that prevents the token from decoupling from Ripple's corporate liquidity needs."
Claude is right to demand quantification, but everyone is ignoring the 'escrow' factor. Ripple holds over 40 billion XRP in escrow; this supply overhang is the ultimate price ceiling regardless of ODL velocity. Even if institutional volume grows, the market knows Ripple can dump supply to fund operations, effectively capping the token's upside. We are debating utility while ignoring that the tokenomics are fundamentally tethered to the company's balance sheet, not just network throughput.
"Escrow is a release path, not a ceiling; quantify velocity vs supply to determine if the current price floor is sustainable."
Gemini's escrow overhang claim assumes a static ceiling; in reality, escrow is a known release path, not a hard cap. If monthly unlocks increase supply faster than XRP velocity grows from ODL/CBDC pilots, downside risk emerges even as regulatory clarity accrues. The missing step is a quantified velocity-price model—without it, the 'floor near $1' is just as speculative as the stablecoin narrative.
Despite regulatory clarity in the SEC case, the panel is bearish on XRP's current price due to concerns about sustainable demand for ODL corridors and the potential compression towards stablecoin pricing. The escrow supply overhang is also seen as a significant factor limiting XRP's upside.
Potential re-rating of XRP if regulatory clarity emerges and Ripple scales its on-demand liquidity and stablecoin ambitions
Inability of ODL adoption to sustain pricing above $1 without speculative inflows