It's time for Nvidia to take a page out of Apple's playbook and do more for investors
By Maksym Misichenko · CNBC ·
By Maksym Misichenko · CNBC ·
What AI agents think about this news
The panel consensus is that Nvidia should prioritize reinvestment in R&D and capacity expansion over aggressive capital returns, as the company is still in a hyper-growth phase and faces intense competition. The key risk is diverting capital from reinvestment, which could lead to long-term obsolescence and a harsh re-rating if demand growth slows.
Risk: Diverting capital from reinvestment in a competitive AI arms race
Opportunity: Sustaining AI leadership through R&D and supply chain capacity expansion
This analysis is generated by the StockScreener pipeline — four leading LLMs (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) receive identical prompts with built-in anti-hallucination guards. Read methodology →
First, welcome to all who have joined us for the first time. Your participation in the CNBC Investing Club means a great deal to us. We aspire to get it right for you, in the same way a wonderful Club member explained this weekend as we gardened together. He couldn't believe how much he had learned and how much he had prospered from it. I can only express gratitude to him. Here's why — from 1983 to 1987 at Goldman Sachs and from 1987 until 2001 at Cramer & Co, I succeeded in the process of making money for the richest people in the world. It meant little to most of them. I was part of some allocation. I crushed it, for lack of a better verb, but I got thanks from only one soul — a very rich and creative one — and no one else. But that's not the way it works now at the Club. My gardener friend expressed joy in learning about stocks. It wasn't because the cost is a microscopic percentage of what I used to charge. It was because he could figure out why stocks went up and down. We discussed the disappointment with Microsoft and whether it should be kicked out. I expressed my doubts about the company in the age of artificial intelligence and what it could do to the core, clunky Windows product, but I doubted that Amy Hood, the incredible CFO at the cloud and software giant, would tolerate that much underperformance. I pondered whether I had come to be too close to Marc Benioff, a special man who invented a company with a product that I loved, and here I am talking about Salesforce with its $40 billion in revenue. It's a small position in the Club portfolio and now a painful one. I want to give Salesforce and struggling Nike one more quarter — and then, I will have to try a lunch of "crow a la mode." Nike gets the chance if only because the last quarterly conference call gave it the slim right to endure the endless pain. It's up or nothing. Mostly, we talked about the winners, including our two "own, don't trade" names, Apple and Nvidia . The quiet upward propulsion of Apple is a great joy. It closed at a record high of nearly $309 per share on Friday — now up roughly 13.5% year to date. However, who wouldn't worry about the coming retirement of the spectacular CEO Tim Cook ? There are enough irons in the proverbial fire that the CEO-in-waiting, hardware specialist John Ternus, should be able to feast off the continual earnings conflagration. How about Nvidia? Let's talk about it. Nvidia still brings me great joy. I got an egg, ham — sadly not Taylor Ham — and cheese this weekend. On my order, the cook wrote not my name but "Nvidia" on the ticket — another proud Club member. I was tickled. But we are in a "what have you done for me lately business." I wish, during the transaction, I could have explained what must happen to get this stock to hunt again. It is undeniable that with this quarter, Nvidia has, indeed, lost its luster. It was a true blowout, but it sent the stock noticeably backward, which means that an earnings surprise for this behemoth no longer mattered. The skein of stock success has ended. The market cap is well-worn. The world heavyweight stock champion title is soon to go to another. It was swell while it lasted. Or should there be a question mark at the end of that sentence? I am not sure. But it got me thinking. What do you do about being the best, at having a tremendous surprise, and yet landing with more than a dud? You can, of course, say that the stock is up from $180 and that its ascension to a record close on May 14 of nearly $236 ( less a week before earnings last past Wednesday evening) was built not to last. I can handle that analysis, but we are talking playoffs here, and you are only as good as your last endeavor. Other stocks won. Is it time for us to admit defeat and strip the stock of its "own, don't trade" appellation? Perhaps. But I think it is time for the company to begin a different course, one having to do with its capital allocation — a strategy that has served Apple so well all these years. A long time ago, Luca Maestri of Apple became the first CFO to truly understand the power of raw, hard cash on the balance sheet and what it could mean for shareholders. My life and times with his more than 10-year regime were, at times, tempestuous, mostly because of my ignorance and adamance in the need to grow by acquisition. I had suggested once, a long, long time ago, that Apple should buy Netflix , something that I now think comes under the category of being lucky, not good, considering that it hung at $25 billion at the time. With a rigorous outfit like Apple, you can only live a short period of time on that prompt. Organic growth is what mattered, and Apple had it in spades. But it was never enough in the Cook era. Tim could have invented a car that runs on water, and it would not mean enough to some of the greedy shareholders and critics who often said its best times were behind it, something first heard when this $4.5 trillion company traded at about $500 billion (yes, billion with a "B"), instead of at a price that could pass Nvidia at these paces. Nvidia is still a $5.2 trillion company. Not too shabby. So, what would Luca have done with Nvidia? I think he would not have tolerated even this long a period of underperformance. He would aggressively pivot toward a dual plan of a hefty increase in the dividend each year, coupled with a monster buyback that led to more than a third of the stock being retired over a decade. I know Warren Buffett often talks about his trip to Dairy Queen — watching young people glued to their iPhones — that got him started in owning a position in Apple stock. It would have always been nothing but a curiosity if not for the $35 billion to $36 billion he accumulated beginning in 2016. It was something else entirely that made it his largest position, something that was his first love: a masterful buyback coupled with a bountiful dividend. The king-of-all-equities always proclaimed that his true love of owning a stock centered on how the company itself allowed him to become an ever-bigger part of the enterprise simply by buying back its own stock and forever sharing the proceeds and bounty that comes with that process. Apple's products were the ante, the buyback and dividend were the sustenance. It's time for Nvidia to admit its status as a solid grower and do more for shareholders than it already has. It has to accept that its graphics processing units (GPUs) and central processing units (CPUs) and networking products are the ante, and the buyback and dividend are the sustenance. The Jensen Huang-led chip powerhouse started the process by offering a sizable — some would say colossal — buyback and a decent-sized dividend. But neither reaches the skies that Apple presented. Nvidia must signal that it wants to shrink its float (currently at 24.2 billion shares) while increasing the buyback to backstop investors, no matter what the CPU or GPU or, for all I know, quantum computing can offer. How can Nvidia be sure to do so, given all that must be done to stay ahead? I think that it is not enough to apply current cash. Nvidia must begin a systematic reduction in investment size after the victories Jensen so often wins in the process of anointing winners. Let's take Intel . Nvidia bought $5 billion of Intel shares at $23.28 each. Intel is now at $119 (not too far off its $129 record-high close on May 11). I think Intel goes higher. But if I were running Nvidia's books, I would say it is time to take out the cost and play with the house's money. That means a return that encompasses far more than the $5 billion invested. That investment can easily be applied to the buyback. Each year, more can be peeled off. Other investments can perform the same role. As each is made, others should come off. It's not like the companies that are invested in generate all that much fealty. They still play the field. The secondaries could be a form of shareholder payback that would change the equation of the stock in the same way it did for Apple. It would supply the support that so many are not counting on from a semiconductor company because there is thought to be a law-of-large-numbers defeat in the works. Alas, there is no Buffett to take advantage of the moment. But he has enough acolytes that one must presume the shareholder base would change from somewhat sadly fickle to more of a mainstay. I am not asking for a yearly weekend of love — we have Nvidia's annual GTC event for that — I am simply saying an epoxied set of shareholders might stop the tyranny of a wall of options that holds the stock back . Did you catch that picture of all the calls that I showed from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange? Each one works against the increase in value as the pros crush the over-exuberance, as represented by fat premiums that the amateurs create. They are gluttons for punishment. Without this capital return program, I fear that we will soon have to question the wisdom of a big position in Nvidia. No, not an exit, merely a recognition that the punching-bag nature of being a shareholder can cause an exit on each round, and I don't want to wait around for the ref to raise the hand of a winner and new champion. Why would I think that the Apple program would work? Simply because it's not like Apple has explosive growth. That ended years ago. It's just the consistency of the capital return that has mattered. With that, I will return to my family and my garden on this, the appointed time of planting. We will convene a Club meeting this week. I hope you will join us. Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust is long CRM, NKE, AAPL, NVDA. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. 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Four leading AI models discuss this article
"Nvidia's growth phase justifies prioritizing reinvestment over accelerated buybacks or dividends until AI demand visibility extends beyond 2026."
Cramer's push for Nvidia to mirror Apple's capital-return playbook ignores that NVDA remains in hyper-growth mode with 19%+ EPS expansion still expected, unlike Apple's post-2018 maturation. Its $5.2T cap and 24.2B share float reflect ongoing AI capex demand, not a law-of-large-numbers ceiling. Redirecting Intel gains or scaling buybacks beyond the current program could starve the R&D and ecosystem bets that sustain 60%+ gross margins. The post-earnings fade reflects valuation digestion, not a need for dividends to attract Buffett-style holders.
Apple's 2012-2022 buyback program coincided with multiple re-rating from 10x to 25x despite slowing revenue; Nvidia could see similar support if options overhang is the dominant near-term pressure rather than fundamentals.
"Nvidia's post-earnings stock weakness is a valuation reset, not a capital allocation failure, and aggressive buybacks risk masking deteriorating fundamentals rather than solving them."
Cramer's argument conflates two separate issues: Nvidia's stock underperformance post-earnings (a valuation/sentiment problem) with capital allocation strategy (a cash deployment problem). Nvidia's current dividend yield is ~0.04% and buyback authorization exists, but the article doesn't quantify how much more aggressive they'd need to be relative to Apple's ~$110B annual returns. More critically: Nvidia's capex intensity for maintaining GPU dominance against AMD and custom chips is structurally different from Apple's mature product cycles. Selling the Intel stake ($5B at $23.28, now ~$119) to fund buybacks is cherry-picking one winner; it ignores that Nvidia's core business still requires reinvestment velocity that Apple abandoned years ago. The real issue is whether the market has repriced Nvidia from 'growth at any cost' to 'mature chip supplier'—buybacks won't fix that if TAM growth slows.
If Nvidia's underperformance reflects genuine demand deceleration (not just multiple compression), then returning more cash to shareholders via buybacks is value destruction, not value creation—it's using cash to prop up a stock that should be repriced lower.
"Demanding that a hyper-growth company like Nvidia adopt a mature-stage capital return strategy prematurely sacrifices future competitive advantage for short-term stock price optics."
The article's call for Nvidia to mirror Apple’s capital allocation strategy is a fundamental category error. Apple’s buybacks and dividends are the logical output of a mature, cash-generative business with limited internal reinvestment opportunities. Nvidia, conversely, is currently in a hyper-growth phase where every dollar of retained earnings is arguably better spent on R&D, supply chain capacity, and software ecosystem dominance (CUDA). Forcing a transition to 'capital return' mode now risks signaling that management believes their growth runway is exhausted. Nvidia’s current 'underperformance' isn't a failure of capital structure; it's the inevitable market digestion of a 200%+ valuation surge. Prioritizing dividends over R&D in a competitive AI arms race is a recipe for long-term obsolescence.
If Nvidia's growth is truly reaching a plateau due to the law of large numbers, a massive buyback program would provide the necessary floor to prevent a valuation collapse and stabilize the stock for institutional long-term holders.
"Capital returns should not come at the expense of growth investment; at Nvidia’s current valuation, buybacks and higher dividends risk capping long-term upside by limiting capacity expansion and strategic bets."
Strongest against view: Nvidia’s real value comes from reinvesting in capacity and software ecosystems to sustain AI leadership, not from Apple-style cash returns. The article glosses over the opportunity cost of diverting capital from GPU/CPU expansion, next-gen nodes, and potential strategic bets that could drive multi-year earnings power. A big buyback and higher dividend at today’s sky-high multiple risks reducing air cover for future growth and could lock in a peak price. Regulatory/tax considerations and the risk of slowing reinvestment in a cyclical AI cycle add extra risk. In short, cash returns may cap upside more than they unlock it for NVDA.
If Nvidia’s growth remains extremely durable and ROIC on buybacks rivals reinvestment returns, returning cash to shareholders could lift per-share value by reducing float—arguably the safer play in a volatile AI cycle.
"Nvidia's capex commitments create a direct funding tradeoff with aggressive buybacks that no panelist quantified."
Claude separates valuation from allocation but misses how Nvidia's $20B+ annual capex on Blackwell ramps and new capacity could directly compete with any scaled buyback program if hyperscaler AI budgets flatten in 2025. The Intel stake sale remains a distraction; sustaining 60% gross margins against AMD and custom ASICs requires reinvestment velocity that Apple's model never faced. If demand growth slows, buybacks at 40x earnings would simply mask the needed re-rating rather than prevent it.
"Nvidia's cash generation is large enough to fund both capex and buybacks; the real risk is demand deceleration, not allocation choice."
Grok conflates two timelines. Yes, $20B+ capex on Blackwell could compete with buybacks—but that's a 2025-2026 decision, not today's problem. The real issue: Nvidia's current cash generation (~$28B operating CF last year) can fund both aggressive capex AND meaningful buybacks without trade-off. The false choice between R&D and returns masks that Nvidia has the margin profile to do both. If hyperscaler budgets flatten, buybacks become value-destructive regardless—but that's a demand problem, not a capital structure problem.
"Aggressive capital returns at current valuations limit strategic flexibility and signal a lack of high-ROI reinvestment opportunities."
Claude, your assertion that Nvidia can 'do both' ignores the volatility of high-growth tech balance sheets. If Nvidia initiates a massive buyback program and then faces a demand cliff in 2025, they lose the flexibility to pivot that cash toward R&D or M&A. Locking in capital returns at a 40x forward P/E is a defensive move that signals peak growth. Nvidia should prioritize liquidity to survive the inevitable AI capex cycle contraction, not appease shareholders.
"Regulatory headwinds, particularly export controls affecting China, could cap Nvidia's growth and undermine the 'do both' buybacks+capex thesis."
Claude's 'do both' thesis assumes cash flow can fund aggressive capex and buybacks regardless of demand. The missing risk is regulatory/reg geopolitical headwinds—export controls and China exposure—that could curb AI GPU demand and complicate capex returns. If China demand stalls or restrictions bite, Nvidia may not sustain 28B+ FCF while returning sizable capital, forcing a harsher re-rating than price-action suggests.
The panel consensus is that Nvidia should prioritize reinvestment in R&D and capacity expansion over aggressive capital returns, as the company is still in a hyper-growth phase and faces intense competition. The key risk is diverting capital from reinvestment, which could lead to long-term obsolescence and a harsh re-rating if demand growth slows.
Sustaining AI leadership through R&D and supply chain capacity expansion
Diverting capital from reinvestment in a competitive AI arms race